As Massachusetts voters ponder a ballot question this November on the future of the MCAS testing graduation requirement, Brown University researchers dug into more than 15 years of studies to determine whether the requirement matters in the long-term outcomes of graduates.
The picture that emerged in their report, “The MCAS as a Graduation Requirement,” was nuanced and complex. But there were no definitive answers about whether the requirement alone helps students build the knowledge, skills, and capacities that will pay off for them after graduation in the labor market and in civic life.
A big complicating factor was Massachusetts instituted the policy as part of the sweeping 1993 Education Reform Act, which included other improvement efforts, such as providing more state aid to poor districts and creating rigorous statewide learning standards.
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“There were many other pieces that all kind of took effect simultaneously,” said Ann Mantil, one of the researchers from Brown’s Annenberg Institute. “It’s really hard to disentangle all of that.”
But the researchers said the report, released Thursday, should still provide voters and policy makers with a wealth of evidence on both sides of the debate to make informed decisions. The report was developed as part of a research partnership with the Massachusetts Elementary and Secondary Education and Higher Education departments, with funding from the Spencer Foundation and the US Department of Education’s Institute of Education Sciences.
Here are some key findings and background on the debate:
Why is there a ballot question?
The Massachusetts Teachers Association is pushing the ballot question because the union believes the graduation requirement is unfair, rewarding students who are good test takers while punishing those who struggle with standardized tests.
High school students must pass the Massachusetts Comprehensive Assessment System in English, math, and science to earn a diploma. More than 700 students each year typically don’t receive a diploma because they didn’t pass, according to state data. Instead, they received “certificates of attainment,” indicating they satisfied only local graduation requirements. Other students who failed the test dropped out.
The proposed ballot question would have diplomas hinge on students completing coursework that is consistent with the state’s academic standards rather than forcing them to pass the MCAS, which they still would have to take.
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MCAS supporters, many with ties to the business community, however, argue eliminating the graduation requirement would harm the state’s economy and the future prosperity of graduates. Requiring a passing score, they say, ensures public schools are producing graduates with the knowledge and skills needed for success.
A debate has emerged over whether grades or MCAS scores are better predictors of postsecondary success.
“Given how politicized the conversation is, we want to be clear about our role as providing hopefully robust evidence to inform the conversation,” said John Papay, one of the researchers.
Are MCAS scores or grades better?
Both data points do a good job of predicting long-term outcomes. Students with higher MCAS scores in the 10th grade, for instance, are more likely than those with lower scores to graduate from high school, enroll in college, and graduate from college, according to the report. The students’ median annual earnings at the age of 30 were also higher.
But there are some diverging trends between the two measures. The report notes that grades have been rising over the past decade while test scores have fallen. That situation can provide mixed signals about student readiness for postsecondary success and has raised questions about grade inflation.
“Grade inflation appears to have accelerated during the pandemic, when grades went up markedly while test scores and attendance both declined sharply,” the report said.
There are also pitfalls with the MCAS: Tenth-grade scores for English learners underpredict their later earnings relative to other students.
Is barely passing the MCAS good enough?
Passing the MCAS by thin margins doesn’t seem to help graduates that much in the long run. Graduates with scores that low typically enroll in college at low rates and do not earn a living wage by age 30, the report found.
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“The median annual earnings in 2022 of students scoring at the passing cutoff in 2006-08 was about $38,000, just 1.37 times the federal poverty level for a family of four,” the report said.
Is the MCAS graduation requirement unfair?
Most students pass the exams on the first try. But about 85 percent of those who never pass, usually after repeated attempts, are English learners or students with disabilities. The outcomes for recent migrants are particularly troubling.
“High school immigrant newcomers represent five percent of those who attempt at least one of the MCAS tests but fully one third of those who never pass; this share is likely to increase as the number of newcomers grows and the new, higher passing threshold on the [English Language Arts] test takes effect for the class of 2026,” the report said.
Do MCAS scores reflect school quality?
Most high schools that boost MCAS scores also produce graduates with better long-term outcomes, like higher earnings. But there are exceptions.
Some high schools, including a number of career and technical education schools, crank out graduates with better earnings without raising test scores. Technical schools tend to focus intently on teaching students critical workforce skills.
By contrast, other schools that increased test scores had graduates with lower than expected earnings.
“One hypothesis is that these schools may be investing resources and attention to teaching to the test rather than building students’ knowledge and skills,” the report said.
James Vaznis can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him @globevaznis.