1 minute 39 seconds ago
451
ABNT20 KNHC 121737
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Seven, located over the central Atlantic Ocean. The
National Hurricane Center has issued its final advisory on Tropical
Depression Francine, located inland over Mississippi. The next
advisory will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center at 2100
UTC.
East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a small area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands. However, the proximity of dry
air near the system could limit additional development over the next
couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to become even
less conducive over the weekend while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward. Regardless of development, this system could
produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the northern
Leeward Islands on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a residual
frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S.
coastline this weekend. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical
development is possible during the early part of next week while the
system drifts to the north or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Bann/Blake
NHC Webmaster
2 hours 39 minutes ago
Issued at 959 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
NHC Webmaster
2 hours 41 minutes ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 14:57:35 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:22:54 GMT
NHC Webmaster
2 hours 41 minutes ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 14:57:35 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:22:54 GMT
NHC Webmaster
2 hours 47 minutes ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 14:52:09 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:28:55 GMT
NHC Webmaster
2 hours 48 minutes ago
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
000
WTNT41 KNHC 121450 CCA
TCDAT1
Tropical Depression Francine Discussion Number 16...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Corrected Frances to Francine in the first paragraph
Francine has continued to weaken this morning as the center moves
across central Mississippi. Surface observations indicate that the
central pressure has risen to near 996 mb, with winds of 25-30 kt
observed about 80 n mi east and northeast of the center. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is decreased to 30 kt. The
surface observations and satellite imagery also suggest that
Francine is merging with a frontal zone, and it is expected to
become a post-tropical low later today or tonight. It should be
noted that while the forecast shows the surface cyclone dissipating
by 48 h, the remnants of the circulation above the surface will
persist beyond that time and continue the heavy rainfall threat.
The initial motion is now 360/12. A continued northward to
north-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected before dissipation, bringing Francine or its remnants
across northern Mississippi into northeastern Arkansas.
This is the last Tropical Cyclone Discussion issued by the
National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on
this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather
Prediction Center beginning at 400 PM CDT, under AWIPS header
TCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KWNH, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov.
Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Elevated water levels and high surf along portions of the
Louisiana and Mississippi coasts should subside today. Until this
occurs, residents in the affected area should continue to follow
advice given by local officials.
2. Francine will continue to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, across portions
of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and the Southeast.
Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible through tonight
over portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, expanding into
Georgia and middle Tennessee Friday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 32.5N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 13/0000Z 34.3N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 13/1200Z 35.3N 90.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 14/0000Z 35.9N 90.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
NHC Webmaster
2 hours 49 minutes ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024
371
WTNT42 KNHC 121449
TCDAT2
Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024
Tropical Depression Seven looks more organized on satellite imagery
this morning, with a compact circulation and a small curved band
with some deep convection. Subjective and objective Dvorak numbers
indicate the system is close to becoming a tropical storm. However,
given the relatively small size of ongoing convection near the
center, the initial intensity was conservatively held at 30 knots,
or at the lower end of the estimates.
The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading, and the
general motion is expected to continue over the next 2-3 days. The
forward speed should gradually slow as the subtropical ridge to the
north of the system weakens. Track guidance diverges considerably
early next week, related to uncertainties with an amplifying trough
over the north-central Atlantic Ocean and another ridge centered
northeast of the Leeward Islands. This track forecast stays close
to the global model consensus and places less weight on the
regional hurricane models which depict a considerably weaker
and less organized system. This produces a track forecast that is
slightly faster and to the left of the previous forecast.
While environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for gradual
strengthening, with low-moderate vertical wind shear and
marginally warm SSTs, intensity guidance came in lower for this
cycle. We show the system becoming a tropical storm in the next
day, followed by the intensity only slowly increasing to 45 knots in
the next five days. However, there is potential for greater
strengthening beyond what is shown early next week as the cyclone
will be in an environment characterized by lower shear, warmer SSTs
around 28C, slightly more instability, but plentiful dry air aloft.
The new forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but
above the latest model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 17.8N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 18.5N 36.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 19.2N 38.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 19.6N 40.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 19.7N 42.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 19.8N 43.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 20.1N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 20.6N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 21.0N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Lamers/Bann/Blake
NHC Webmaster
2 hours 50 minutes ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024
Tropical Depression Seven looks more organized on satellite imagery
this morning, with a compact circulation and a small curved band
with some deep convection. Subjective and objective Dvorak numbers
indicate the system is close to becoming a tropical storm. However,
given the relatively small size of ongoing convection near the
center, the initial intensity was conservatively held at 30 knots,
or at the lower end of the estimates.
The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading, and the
general motion is expected to continue over the next 2-3 days. The
forward speed should gradually slow as the subtropical ridge to the
north of the system weakens. Track guidance diverges considerably
early next week, related to uncertainties with an amplifying trough
over the north-central Atlantic Ocean and another ridge centered
northeast of the Leeward Islands. This track forecast stays close
to the global model consensus and places less weight on the
regional hurricane models which depict a considerably weaker
and less organized system. This produces a track forecast that is
slightly faster and to the left of the previous forecast.
While environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for gradual
strengthening, with low-moderate vertical wind shear and
marginally warm SSTs, intensity guidance came in lower for this
cycle. We show the system becoming a tropical storm in the next
day, followed by the intensity only slowly increasing to 45 knots in
the next five days. However, there is potential for greater
strengthening beyond what is shown early next week as the cyclone
will be in an environment characterized by lower shear, warmer SSTs
around 28C, slightly more instability, but plentiful dry air aloft.
The new forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but
above the latest model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 17.8N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 18.5N 36.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 19.2N 38.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 19.6N 40.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 19.7N 42.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 19.8N 43.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 20.1N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 20.6N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 21.0N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Lamers/Bann/Blake
NNNN
NHC Webmaster
2 hours 50 minutes ago
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
000
FONT12 KNHC 121448
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BANN/LAMERS/BLAKE
NHC Webmaster
2 hours 51 minutes ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024
011
WTNT32 KNHC 121448
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 34.6W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 34.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28
km/h), and a west-northwest to west motion at a slower forward speed
is anticipated over the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Lamers/Bann/Blake
NHC Webmaster
2 hours 51 minutes ago
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 12
the center of Seven was located near 17.8, -34.6
with movement WNW at 17 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
NHC Webmaster
2 hours 51 minutes ago
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BANN/LAMERS/BLAKE
NNNN
NHC Webmaster
2 hours 51 minutes ago
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
000
WTNT22 KNHC 121447
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 34.6W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 34.6W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 33.9W
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.5N 36.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.2N 38.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.6N 40.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.7N 42.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.8N 43.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.1N 44.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 20.6N 46.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 21.0N 47.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 34.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BANN/LAMERS/BLAKE
NHC Webmaster
2 hours 59 minutes ago
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
000
WTNT41 KNHC 121439
TCDAT1
Tropical Depression Francine Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Frances has continued to weaken this morning as the center moves
across central Mississippi. Surface observations indicate that the
central pressure has risen to near 996 mb, with winds of 25-30 kt
observed about 80 n mi east and northeast of the center. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is decreased to 30 kt. The
surface observations and satellite imagery also suggest that
Francine is merging with a frontal zone, and it is expected to
become a post-tropical low later today or tonight. It should be
noted that while the forecast shows the surface cyclone dissipating
by 48 h, the remnants of the circulation above the surface will
persist beyond that time and continue the heavy rainfall threat.
The initial motion is now 360/12. A continued northward to
north-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected before dissipation, bringing Francine or its remnants
across northern Mississippi into northeastern Arkansas.
This is the last Tropical Cyclone Discussion issued by the
National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on
this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather
Prediction Center beginning at 400 PM CDT, under AWIPS header
TCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KWNH, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov.
Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Elevated water levels and high surf along portions of the
Louisiana and Mississippi coasts should subside today. Until this
occurs, residents in the affected area should continue to follow
advice given by local officials.
2. Francine will continue to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, across portions
of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and the Southeast.
Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible through tonight
over portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, expanding into
Georgia and middle Tennessee Friday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 32.5N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 13/0000Z 34.3N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 13/1200Z 35.3N 90.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 14/0000Z 35.9N 90.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
NHC Webmaster
3 hours ago
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
000
FONT11 KNHC 121438
PWSAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCINE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NHC Webmaster
3 hours ago
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
000
WTNT31 KNHC 121438
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Francine Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
...FRANCINE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI,
ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 90.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Francine was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 90.1 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in
forward speed through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of
Francine will move over central and northern portions of
Mississippi this afternoon and tonight and move into northeastern
Arkansas by Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone later today or tonight.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
from the Jackson area is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.
WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next
few hours over portions of central Mississippi and western Alabama.
RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches across portions of Mississippi, eastern Arkansas,
Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Localized
amounts of 12 inches are possible over portions of Alabama, the
Florida Panhandle, and Georgia. This rainfall could lead to
considerable flash and urban flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.
STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Gulf coast
between eastern Louisiana and Alabama but will recede through this
afternoon.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today across the Florida
Panhandle, southern and central Alabama, and southwest Georgia.
SURF: Swells generated by Francine should subside along the
northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 400 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
$$
Forecaster Beven
NHC Webmaster
3 hours ago
...FRANCINE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 12
the center of Francine was located near 32.5, -90.1
with movement N at 14 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 996 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
NHC Webmaster
3 hours ago
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
000
WTNT21 KNHC 121438
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 90.1W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 90.1W AT 12/1500Z...INLAND
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 90.1W...INLAND
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.3N 90.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 35.3N 90.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 35.9N 90.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 90.1W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT1, WMO
HEADER WTNT21 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.
RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML
AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP
.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NHC Webmaster
5 hours 17 minutes ago
Issued at 721 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
NHC Webmaster
5 hours 41 minutes ago
Issued at 657 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
NHC Webmaster
Checked
4 years 11 months ago
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