As we get into July on the NFL calendar, two things begin: training camps and predictions season. Over the next seven weeks, everyone you read, listen to and share a text chain with will tell you who's going to win the Super Bowl. And while I've adopted the easy solution over the past four years and just picked the Chiefs to win every single time, even I'll admit picking the team with Patrick Mahomes isn't exactly going out on a limb.
When this window comes around, there are usually one or more teams that pop up as the trendy picks of the summer. These are teams that showed just enough the season before to impress before bowing out with the promise of doing more the following season. They're the fun teams to root for in advance of the season, those whose bandwagon you can jump on just before it gets too full.
How often does that team actually come through, though? I'm going to try to look through the recent past to see how often the trendy pick lives up to lofty expectations. And naturally, we'll try to apply that to the teams likely to pop up as the sexy choices to win Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans next February.
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First, we need to define what the sexy preseason Super Bowl pick looks like. There's no definition that covers each case I can find from the past, but there's a best fit that covers the vast majority of teams. From my perspective, the trendy title pick usually aligns with the following concepts:
The team hasn't made a deep playoff run in the recent past. Picking a team that already has made a few playoff trips isn't the sort of new, fun selection we're thinking about here. The Rams have turned over their roster, but they still have a fair number of stars from their Super Bowl LVI-winning team of the 2021 season. We're looking at teams that haven't yet emerged as Super Bowl contenders, especially if they've been down toward the bottom of the standings for a while.
They exceeded their preseason expectations the prior year by a considerable margin. Teams with accelerated trajectories often get this sort of hype after a breakout season. We can approximate this by using the preseason over/unders from Pro Football Reference. If a team beat its projected total in the previous season by at least 2.5 wins, it fits our criteria.
They made the playoffs and were competitive once they got there. Even if we underestimate how quickly NFL teams can turn things around, it's rare for a team that missed the postseason the prior season to ever get serious Super Bowl consideration. With the exception of a situation such as the Jets', where they had a Hall of Fame quarterback get hurt on the opening series of the season, the minimum bar for hype is advancing to the postseason the prior year, especially in a league in which 14 teams advance to the playoffs.
I'll take it a step further. Typically, those teams either need to win a playoff game and/or look very competitive in their loss to keep people's attention the following year. The 2021 Cardinals started 7-0, hadn't made a playoff run with their core at that time and exceeded their preseason expectations by 2.5 wins. But after they struggled in the second half and got blown out by the Rams in the postseason, nobody had them as a trendy Super Bowl pick in 2022. To make this list, a team has to show up in the postseason.
They have a young quarterback who hit new highs (or had an impressive rookie year) the prior season. Yes, a team such as the Peyton Manning-era Broncos or Tom Brady-led Buccaneers can be a trendy pick, but we already knew those guys were capable of winning Super Bowls. Even Carson Palmer having a late-career resurgence in Arizona doesn't feel as sexy of a selection as it does when there's an opportunity to get behind a young quarterback who emerged as a potential superstar the prior season.
We're looking for a quarterback who either debuted with a spectacular campaign or reached new heights relative to his prior pro seasons. That quarterback doesn't have to be on his rookie deal, but it doesn't feel like a trendy pick if he has already established himself in the NFL, either.
Jump to a section:
Meet the three candidates for this season
Trendy picks by year: 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020
2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012
What does recent history tell us about 2024?
The trendy Super Bowl picks of 2024
First, let's establish which teams stand out as likely to draw serious consideration as the sexy Super Bowl picks this season. There's one obvious candidate that fits all our criteria:
Houston Texans. This is the easy pick. C.J. Stroud emerged as an immediate superstar in Houston, throwing for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdowns while getting picked off just five times. He followed that with a stunning playoff performance against an elite Browns defense, going 16-of-21 for 274 yards and three touchdowns in a blowout victory.
The Texans lost to the top-seeded Ravens the following week, but they had already proved to be a formidable opponent in the AFC. Having greatly exceeded expectations a year ago before adding key talent such as Stefon Diggs and Danielle Hunter this offseason, Houston is deservedly going to attract attention as a potential Super Bowl contender in 2024.
There are two other teams that mostly fit the bill here, too ...
Detroit Lions. Long-suffering teams that appear to have broken through the doom and gloom of the past are always going to be fun Super Bowl bandwagons to jump on. And the Lions, of course, nearly made it through to the championship game in a single season, as they beat the Rams and Buccaneers and held a 24-7 halftime lead over the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game before collapsing in the second half.
The Lions have a young roster, and they also made meaningful offseason additions to try to fix their obvious weaknesses in the secondary. Having exceeded expectations in back-to-back seasons and coming within a couple of bounces of advancing to the Super Bowl, you don't need to do much imagining to envision a Detroit championship in 2024.
The only reason the Lions aren't an obvious fit for this list is the presence of Jared Goff, who is 29 and already on the second phase of his career after his initial run with the Rams. We saw him play at an elite level at his best in Los Angeles, so you could argue he doesn't fit the idea of quarterbacks reaching new heights as part of the trendy teams. At the same time, given that Goff was essentially benched and salary dumped for rebuilding his career, his performance feels different than the typical veteran at the helm of a team turning things around.
Dan Graziano, Mike Greenberg and Bart Scott discuss what the expectations are for the Packers heading into next season.
Green Bay Packers. The league's youngest team was propelled forward by a remarkable stretch from Jordan Love, who led the league in QBR over the final seven weeks of the season. The Packers won six of their final eight to sneak into the postseason as the 7-seed, where they promptly embarrassed the Cowboys in Dallas, going up 27-0 before eventually winning by 16 points. They gave San Francisco a run for its money in the divisional round, too, as it took a late field goal miss by Anders Carlson and a touchdown run by Christian McCaffrey with 1:41 to go to give the 49ers a 24-21 victory.
The Packers' breakout, at least in terms of wins, just wasn't quite as impressive as most of the others we'll get to on this list. They had a 7.5-win projection heading into the season and went 9-8, albeit with many of those wins weighted later in the season. I'm optimistic about Green Bay this season and see it as a Super Bowl contender, but it would be getting much more in the way of Super Bowl hype if it had finished 11-6 instead.
How have trendy picks done in the past?
To get a sense of our candidates' chances of actually living up to the hype, let's run through the recent past. Going through the beginning of the slotted draft era in 2011, I've identified the teams that fit the criteria laid out above and have gone through their history to see what happened next. Did the sexy team emerge as a serious Super Bowl winner? How often did these teams end up crashing to earth?
2023
Jacksonville Jaguars. Last year's Jaguars felt a lot like this year's Packers, as a white-hot second half by a young quarterback propelled them into the postseason. Trevor Lawrence's 15-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the second half of 2022 and Tennessee's late-season collapse helped win the Jags the AFC South, and an unforgettable comeback over the Chargers gave Jacksonville its first postseason win of the Lawrence era. The season ended the following week against the Chiefs, but it looked like the Jags were on the cusp of joining the AFC's elite.
What happened: Missed the playoffs. For 12 weeks, it looked like the Jaguars were one of the elite teams in the AFC. On "Monday Night Football" in Week 13, the 8-3 Jags were in position to take over the top seed in the conference with a victory over a Joe Burrow-less Bengals team. Instead, Lawrence got injured, Jacksonville lost in overtime and the team won only one more game the rest of the way. One year after injuries opened up a path for the Jags to win the division, their own issues created a path for the Texans to claim the South at Jacksonville's expense.
Other candidates: The New York Giants are a good example of why it's important to dramatically exceed expectations to actually garner Super Bowl hype the following year. Yes, Daniel Jones had a breakout season and they won a playoff game over the Vikings, but at 9-7-1, they exceeded their 2022 projection by only 1.5 wins. They were on the list of teams most likely to decline in 2023, and well, you know how things turned out.
The San Francisco 49ers could have been considered a trendy pick with a breakout quarterback in Brock Purdy, but I'd argue they had been great with Jimmy Garoppolo, too; they had made the Super Bowl in 2019 and the conference championship the prior season with Garoppolo at the helm. Picking the Niners to win the Super Bowl a year ago wouldn't have been a trendy pick.
2022
Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals were like the 2024 Lions, only taken one step further. The preseason discussion around them heading into 2021 was about Ja'Marr Chase struggling to catch passes and Joe Burrow's recovery from a serious knee injury, but they arrived much faster than anybody expected. They won an AFC North in which the three other teams had made the playoffs the previous season by going 10-7, then ran the table in the AFC before coming up just short in Super Bowl LVI.
What happened: Lost in the AFC Championship Game. While there were some early struggles as the offensive line coalesced, the Bengals righted the ship and won their final eight games to advance to the postseason. They beat a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens team in the wild-card round and blew out the Bills in a Buffalo snowstorm, but the Chiefs gained their revenge and ended any talk of the Bengals turning Kansas City into "Burrowhead" by beating their rivals in the AFC title game.
Other candidates: The Philadelphia Eagles were supposed to be rebuilding in 2021, but some positive regression toward the mean and an impressive upswing from Jalen Hurts saw them win six of their final eight and sneak into the postseason. They were blasted by the Bucs in the wild-card round, and there were serious questions about whether Hurts was the long-term solution in Philadelphia, so even after adding A.J. Brown and Haason Reddick during the offseason, there wasn't a ton of Philadelphia Super Bowl hype heading into 2022. There should have been: They dominated the NFC and went back and forth in a Super Bowl LVII shootout with the Chiefs before falling short.
2021
Cleveland Browns. There were plenty of good vibes surrounding the Browns after their campaign during the COVID-impacted 2020 season. Kevin Stefanski's work in turning around the organization had earned the former Vikings assistant a Coach of the Year award. Baker Mayfield's banner season turned the quarterback into a commercial pitchman and a popular MVP pick for the 2021 season. The Browns had beaten the Steelers in the wild-card round before coming up just short against the Chiefs. (A lesson we're learning in this piece: Don't face Kansas City in the postseason.) And with Cleveland investing in free agents such as Jadeveon Clowney and John Johnson III to turn around the defense, it felt like it was a complete team on the cusp of something great.
What happened: Missed the postseason. The Browns were another team that made the list of teams likely to decline, owing to their unsustainable record in close games. They dropped from 7-2 to 5-6 in those games, Mayfield struggled through a shoulder injury for most of the season and they finished 8-9. Mayfield was dumped on the Panthers for cap savings after the season.
Other candidates: The Miami Dolphins jumped from 5-11 to 10-6, but they missed the postseason, and Tua Tagovailoa spent the season splitting time with journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. People were optimistic about the Dolphins heading into the season, but they weren't earning Super Bowl hype.
2020
Buffalo Bills. The 2019 season was the beginning of the breakthrough for Josh Allen and the Bills. After an uneven rookie season impacted by injury, he threw just nine interceptions in 2019. Three came in an ugly loss to the Patriots, and the Bills lost the December rematch with the Pats to cede the AFC East. Ten wins were enough to claim a wild-card spot and a trip to Houston, however.
There, Allen played well before struggling to work within the context of the offense in the second half, leading to a Texans comeback victory. I was skeptical of Allen's chances of making the leap into a star quarterback, but after the Bills traded for Stefon Diggs, there were plenty of other people who saw the combination of a great defense, a physically gifted quarterback and an AFC East without Tom Brady and projected a leap forward.
What happened: Lost in the AFC Championship Game. I was wrong about Allen, who turned into an MVP candidate during the pandemic season and remains one of the most dynamic players in the sport. The Bills dominated the AFC East and won the division for the first time since 1995, but after playoff wins over the Colts and Ravens, the Bills lost in Kansas City in the AFC title game. Buffalo hasn't been back since, as it was knocked out in the divisional round by the Chiefs in 2021 and 2023 and the Bengals in 2022.
Dan Graziano and Damien Woody explain why they don't believe the Bills have enough to win the AFC.
San Francisco 49ers. After starting his 49ers career 10-22, coach Kyle Shanahan turned things around in Year 3. A healthy season from Jimmy Garoppolo gave them steadier quarterback play, while some positive regression from the lowest interception total in league history on defense propelled the 49ers forward. They went 13-3 and ripped through the Vikings and Packers in the postseason, setting up a dramatic game against the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV. While the Chiefs prevailed, the 49ers seemed set to compete for titles for years to come.
What happened: Missed the playoffs. They were, just not in 2020, when Garoppolo was injured and missed 10 games. The 49ers went 6-10 before bouncing back into the playoffs and making three consecutive NFC championship games, winning last season's against the Lions.
Other candidates: The Baltimore Ravens seem like plausible candidates for this list in both 2019 and 2020, but ugly, strangely uncompetitive playoff losses to the Chargers and Titans muted their hype after each season. Picking the Ravens to win the Super Bowl after the 14-2 team fell flat in the playoffs for the second consecutive season would have felt contrarian as opposed to trendy.
2019
Chicago Bears. After years of suffering, the Bears had finally found their quarterback. Even the most dyed-in-the-wool Chicago fan would have chalked up much of the 2018 team's success to Khalil Mack and the defense, but a 12-4 Bears team had everything going in its favor. Wunderkind first-year coach Matt Nagy had gone 12-4. Mitchell Trubisky, the team's No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 draft, completed two-thirds of his passes and posted a 95.4 passer rating in his second season. He had thrown the Bears into field goal range for a late win over the Eagles in the playoffs, only for the infamous Double Doink to sink them. There were so many bets on Trubisky to win MVP in 2019 that Vegas got worried about the potential payout.
What happened: Missed the playoffs. The Trubisky who threw a handful of dropped interceptions to the Eagles in that playoff game was more instructive of his future than the one who looked good on the final drive. He struggled, the defense took a step backward without coordinator Vic Fangio and the Bears fell to 8-8. They haven't won a playoff game since 2010, something new signal-caller Caleb Williams will hope to rectify.
Kansas City Chiefs. Do they qualify here? I think so. Andy Reid had been a regular visitor to the postseason after joining the Chiefs, but his teams with Alex Smith at the helm had gone 1-4, with their sole win coming over a Brian Hoyer-quarterbacked Houston team. Once Patrick Mahomes took over in 2018, though, they looked and felt like a different franchise. He transformed the offense and won league MVP. Kansas City won 12 games and claimed the top seed in the AFC. It blew out the Colts in the divisional round, only to fall just short of the Super Bowl in an overtime loss to the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Same old Reid?
What happened: Won the Super Bowl. Reid finally broke through, as the Chiefs went 12-4 and produced comeback victories in each of their three playoff games. It's tough to say they were a trendy pick in the same way that a team such as the Texans would be today, but they might serve as an example of a Lions-esque team crossing the threshold after their run to the final four.
Other candidates: The Houston Texans had gone 11-5 in Deshaun Watson's first full season as the team's starter, only to lose 21-7 to the Colts at home in the wild-card round. That loss would typically mute the offseason hype, but remember that they made a dramatic move just before the 2019 year by sending two future first-round picks to the Dolphins in a deal for Laremy Tunsil. The trade helped them beat the Bills in the wild-card round, but Bill O'Brien's charges blew a 24-0 lead and eventually lost by 20 points to the Chiefs in the divisional round.
2018
Jacksonville Jaguars. One of the league's longest rebuilds finally turned around in 2017, as the Jaguars followed what the preseason numbers suggested and went 10-6, winning the AFC South for the first time in franchise history. The Jags then won a tight game against the Bills, held onto an early lead in a 45-42 win over the Steelers and were about to take a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter in the AFC Championship Game against the Patriots before Myles Jack was wrongly ruled down on what should have been a scoop and score.
Jacksonville ended up losing that game and missed out on a trip to the Super Bowl, but the hype for 2018 was real. The team signed Blake Bortles to an extension and brought back just about everybody from a defense that looked full of young playmakers. When Bortles threw four touchdowns in a 31-20 win over the Patriots in Week 2 to take the Jags to 2-0, the hype was full steam ahead.
What happened: Missed the playoffs. The Jags went 3-11 the rest of the way. Bortles was released in 2019, and a year later, star corner Jalen Ramsey forced his way out of town via a trade to the Rams. The Jags went 13-50 after that win over the Patriots before Trevor Lawrence & Co. turned things around in 2022.
Los Angeles Rams. The team that inspired too many seven-win jokes during the Jeff Fisher era traded away Sam Bradford in 2015 and then moved up for Jared Goff in the 2016 draft with the hopes of breaking that cycle. While it led to a four-win season in 2016, the arrival of Sean McVay, Cooper Kupp, Andrew Whitworth and others sparked a revival. Los Angeles went 11-5 in a stunning 2017 season, and while the Rams lost a home playoff game to the Falcons in the wild-card round, it certainly felt like they were on the ascent for the first time since the beginning of the Bradford era.
What happened: Lost in the Super Bowl. They were ascending, although it took a few years and a quarterback change for the Rams to actually win a title. The 2018 Rams improved to 13-3, famously winning a 54-51 classic on "Monday Night Football" against the Chiefs in November. Goff & Co. comfortably beat the Cowboys in the divisional round, and a missed pass interference call helped them top the Saints in New Orleans, but the offense fell flat in a touchdown-less loss to the Patriots in Super Bowl LIII. While they didn't win a title, preseason faith in the Rams was certainly reaffirmed by their performance in 2018.
2017
Dallas Cowboys. It feels like Dak Prescott has been the quarterback of the Cowboys forever, but Dallas greatly exceeded expectations in his 2016 rookie season. With Tony Romo sidelined indefinitely by a broken bone in his back, Prescott inherited the starting job by default. An all-rookie backfield excelled, as he threw for 3,667 yards and just four interceptions, while Ezekiel Elliott ran for a league-high 1,631 yards.
Coming off a 4-12 season and without their longtime starting quarterback, the Cowboys went 13-3. They didn't win a playoff game, but Prescott was excellent in the divisional round loss to the Packers, going 24-of-38 for 302 yards with three touchdowns and a pick. He led a pair of touchdown drives and ran in a 2-point conversion to tie the game at 28 with 4:08 to go. After a Packers field goal, another Prescott drive set up a 52-yarder to tie the game with 35 seconds left. That was just enough time for Aaron Rodgers, who hit Jared Cook for 36 yards to set up the game-winning field goal in regulation.
What happened: Missed the playoffs. This was another case where the numbers suggested a potential Super Bowl contender would decline, as the Cowboys had gone 7-2 in one-score games the prior season. With Elliott missing six games because of a suspension, Dallas fell from fifth in scoring offense to 14th, and a 21-12 loss to the Seahawks in Week 16 knocked it out of playoff contention.
Oakland Raiders. Another long rebuild come good, the Raiders had gone 14 years without as much as a single winning record before going 12-4 in 2016. Derek Carr led seven fourth-quarter comebacks, but a late-season fractured fibula kept him out of the playoffs, where the Raiders were comfortably beaten by the Texans, 27-14. While I wouldn't normally include a team that failed to be competitive in the playoffs, the circumstances surrounding Carr's injury and the amount of young talent on the roster at the time led them to be a trendy Super Bowl pick the following offseason.
What happened: Missed the playoffs. Yet another team that outperformed its underlying metrics in 2016, the Raiders were never going to sustain an 8-1 record in games decided by seven points or fewer. They won their first two games and then lost four straight, never really getting the ship righted afterward. Team owner Mark Davis lost faith in coach Jack Del Rio and general manager Reggie McKenzie and fired Del Rio after the season, replacing him with Jon Gruden, who promptly traded away prized building blocks Amari Cooper and Khalil Mack. The Raiders still haven't won a playoff game and have more coaches (4) than winning seasons (1) over the ensuing seven years.
Miami Dolphins. I have to make the same exception for the Dolphins, who went 10-6 in Adam Gase's first year at the helm. The former Broncos coordinator finished third in the Coach of the Year balloting that season. Gase helped coax a career-high 93.5 passer rating out of Ryan Tannehill, but the Dolphins quarterback was sidelined in December by a partially torn ACL, and backup Matt Moore was brutalized in a 30-12 playoff loss to the Steelers. With Tannehill expected to return for 2017, it was easy to excuse the playoff loss and treat Miami as a team on the upswing for years to come.
What happened: Missed the playoffs. You're not going to believe this: The numbers also said that the Dolphins were going to decline. Gase didn't get much help when Tannehill suffered another torn ACL over the summer, but after plucking Jay Cutler out of the broadcasting booth to take his place, Miami stagnated. It's 8-1 record in one-score games didn't keep up, and it fell to 6-10. Gase followed up his 10-6 season by going a combined 22-42 across his four other seasons as a head coach.
2016
Cincinnati Bengals. Does Andy Dalton's breakout season qualify for this exercise? He was in his fifth NFL season, but he was a legitimate MVP candidate for the first and only time in 2015, averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt and posting a 106.2 passer rating. The Bengals went 10-2 with him at the helm, only for the quarterback to fracture his thumb in a loss to the Steelers and miss the remainder of the season. Replacement AJ McCarron couldn't move the offense in the postseason, but even after the Bengals took a 16-15 lead against Pittsburgh with 1:50 to go, a pair of personal fouls on Vontaze Burfict and Adam Jones set up a game-winning field goal, eliminating Cincinnati.
What happened: Missed the playoffs. Dalton's massive improvement was a product of an incredibly healthy (and effective) offensive line and an elite group of receivers, one which lost a pair of key contributors when Marvin Jones Jr. left for the Lions and Tyler Eifert missed half the season. A defense that had forced 26 turnovers wasn't able to sustain its takeaway rate, and the Bengals fell to 6-9-1 in what became the beginning of the end of the Marvin Lewis era.
Minnesota Vikings. I'm not sure the Vikings had the same level of Super Bowl hype as many of the other teams on this list, but after an 11-5 season in 2015, you could make a case this was a complete football team. Mike Zimmer's team ranked fifth in scoring defense, had Adrian Peterson run for nearly 1,500 yards and had a budding star wideout in Stefon Diggs. Teddy Bridgewater was more of a game manager than a difference-maker, but the Vikings had won the NFC North at 11-5 and been in position to beat the Seahawks in the wild-card game, only for Blair Walsh to miss a 27-yard field goal in the final minute, handing Seattle a 10-9 victory.
What happened: Missed the playoffs. Bridgewater suffered a career-altering knee injury in training camp, but it's telling that the Vikings felt good enough about their chances in 2016 to trade a first-round pick to the Eagles for Sam Bradford. The 2010 No. 1 pick stayed healthy and threw just five interceptions in 15 games, but Peterson tore his meniscus in September and played only 12 snaps the rest of the way. Minnesota was still great on defense, but at 8-8, it failed to contend in the NFC.
Other candidates: Washington went 9-7 in Jay Gruden's first season at the helm and won the NFC East in Kirk Cousins' breakout season, but after going up 11-0 early against the Packers in the wild-card round, Green Bay outscored it 35-7 the rest of the way. Washington had a 7.5-win projection the following season, so I'm not sure many people saw the team as Super Bowl contenders. It did go 8-7-1, so while it missed the playoffs, it posted what stands as the most recent winning record in franchise history.
2015
There aren't any good candidates for 2015. The teams that greatly exceeded their expectations in 2014 all had veteran quarterbacks (Tony Romo, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Carson Palmer, Matthew Stafford and Ben Roethlisberger). The only quarterbacks under 30 were Russell Wilson and Cam Newton, and we'll hit them elsewhere. In fact, let's start with the latter ...
2014
Carolina Panthers. Has it really been a decade since Riverboat Ron's debut? After years of banging their heads against the wall and losing close games, the Panthers finally got things right in 2013. Rivera responded to yet another close loss in Week 2 by turning into what would qualify as a moderately aggressive coach by today's standards the rest of the way, and the 0-2 Panthers eventually finished their season at 12-4. They held a 10-6 lead in the divisional round just before halftime against the 49ers, but San Francisco scored with five seconds left to go before the break and never looked back. With young stars Cam Newton and Luke Kuechly, Carolina looked set to challenge the NFL's elite.
What happened: Lost in the divisional round. They were ready, but that dominant season had to wait until 2015, when the Panthers went 15-1 before losing to the Broncos in Super Bowl 50. Their 2014 season was one of the weirdest years any team has had in the past decade. After starting 3-2-1, they lost six straight, leaving them at 3-8-1 with four games to go. They won a game, but Newton fractured his back in a car accident, which would seem like a good time to end your quarterback's season. With slim hopes of winning the NFC South, Carolina started Derek Anderson for a week, then brought back Newton for the final two games. It won all three and clinched the NFC South in Week 17 at 7-8-1 with a 34-3 blowout of the Falcons. The Panthers then beat an Arizona team left starting third-stringer Ryan Lindley before falling to the Seahawks in the divisional round.
Philadelphia Eagles. One year into the Chip Kelly era, everything felt great in Philadelphia. Freed of Andy Reid, Eagles fans were thrilled to be playing the league's fastest football under the former Oregon coach. Michael Vick began the 2013 season as the starter, but when Nick Foles took over, he produced one of the most stunning 10-game runs in league history, averaging more than 9.0 yards per attempt while throwing 27 touchdowns against two picks. Kelly's Eagles lost a home game in the wild-card round to the Saints, but it felt like the Eagles had landed their coach and quarterback of the future in one season.
What happened: Missed the playoffs. While the Eagles went 10-6 for the second consecutive time in 2014, a three-game losing streak in December cost them the NFC East, and results in Week 17 booted them out of the postseason altogether. Foles wasn't really Joe Montana in disguise, and injuries caused him to split time with Mark Sanchez. Kelly's offense still ranked third in the league in scoring, but the defense was left exhausted at the end of too many games. Kelly took over personnel control the following year and ran the team into the ground, going 6-9 before he was fired.
Other candidates: The Cincinnati Bengals could figure in here given that they went 11-5 with Dalton throwing 33 touchdown passes, but they had gone 10-6 the season before. They also lost 27-10 to the Chargers in the wild-card round, though, so the hype wasn't really there.
2013
Indianapolis Colts. Andrew Luck turned around the Colts immediately, as the same team that went 2-14 in 2011 to land Luck with the No. 1 pick went 11-5 the following season. They were forced to turn to recently unretired offensive coordinator Bruce Arians as coach while Chuck Pagano was battling leukemia, a move which created a head-coaching run for Arians in Arizona and Tampa Bay. Indy was outscored on the season, but it went 11-5 and was within one score of the Ravens for most of its playoff game before Baltimore pulled away late.
What happened: Lost in the divisional round. For all the times I've mentioned how regression in close games came back to bite teams on this list, the Colts defied the numbers and broke my brain several years running around this time. They went 11-5 again in 2013, this time beating the Chiefs in a 45-44 comeback classic in the wild-card round before falling to the Patriots. They made it as far as the AFC title game the following season before the Luck era sadly fell apart as a result of injuries.
Seattle Seahawks. Another one of the breakthrough young quarterbacks in the newly slotted draft system who came to define the value of having a rookie deal quarterback, Russell Wilson beat out free agent addition Matt Flynn for the starting job in camp and never looked back. A young Seattle defense had jumped from 25th to seventh in points allowed per game the prior season, but Wilson gave Marshawn Lynch some much-needed help on the offensive side of the ball. The Seahawks went 11-5 and beat Washington in a sloppy wild-card game before losing a classic to the Falcons, as they came all the way back from 20-0 down at halftime to take the lead with 31 seconds left, only for Matt Ryan to pick up 41 yards on two plays to set up a game-winning field goal for Matt Bryant.
What happened: Won the Super Bowl. Here's our second trendy team to win a Lombardi Trophy. The Legion of Boom produced one of the most impressive defensive seasons in league history, while Wilson threw 26 touchdown passes and ran for 539 yards. After overcoming the rival 49ers in the NFC Championship Game, the Seahawks dominated Peyton Manning and the Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII, winning the franchise its first and only title.
Washington. Drafted one pick after Luck, Robert Griffin might have even been more transformative for Washington. With the franchise famously sporting an offensive coaching staff that included Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, Matt LaFleur and Mike McDaniel, it improved from 5-10 to 10-6 in one season. Griffin threw for 3,200 yards and ran for 815 more, as a zone-read-driven scheme transfixed opposing defenses. The only damper on Washington hype might have been the knee injury Griffin suffered during the wild-card loss to the Seahawks.
What happened: Missed the playoffs. If the 2012 Washington offense felt like the future, Week 1 of the 2013 season put those claims to bed. Facing the Eagles in Chip Kelly's debut, Philadelphia's high-tempo, RPO-heavy offense immediately made its opponent look ordinary. Washington finished 3-13. Griffin was never the same after his knee injury, and Washington has one winning season and zero playoff victories since that game against Seattle.
Other candidates: The Minnesota Vikings broke through with a 10-6 season in 2012, but I don't think many people were pinning that on the efforts of Christian Ponder, who posted an 81.2 passer rating. Adrian Peterson's 2,097-yard season won the Vikings back league MVP honors, but they weren't a trendy pick the following season, as they were projected to win just 7.5 games.
2012
San Francisco 49ers. Let's finish by looking at 2011's breakout team and how it became the sexy Super Bowl pick for 2012. To say Jim Harbaugh turned around the 49ers undersells just how dramatic and sudden the change occurred. The Niners hadn't posted a winning season in eight years, and 2005 No. 1 pick Alex Smith had grown disgruntled by the organization's struggles. Fans were sick of Smith, too, famously chanting "We Want Carr" at then-coach Mike Singletary as he debated whether to bench Smith for former Texans quarterback David Carr. Smith actually left as a free agent before belatedly re-signing with the Niners for 2011.
Harbaugh's team started 5-1 before its bye, with the fiery coach instigating a postgame scrum with then-Lions coach Jim Schwartz. San Francisco finished 13-3, then won what might have been one of the best postseason games ever played in a dramatic victory over the Saints. With an opportunity to advance to the Super Bowl by beating the Giants, the 49ers were let down by poor special teams, as Kyle Williams fumbled away two punts, leading to 10 crucial Giants points in a 20-17 overtime loss.
What happened: Lost in the Super Bowl. The 49ers went 6-2 in one-score games and weren't able to sustain their 13-win pace from the prior season, but at 11-4-1, they were still able to win the NFC West and claim a first-round bye. Along the way, an injured Smith was replaced by Colin Kaepernick, who quickly took over the job and expanded the rushing duties we would later see Lamar Jackson use in a Greg Roman offense.
The 49ers blew out the Packers and then narrowly survived a late Falcons comeback to win the NFC Championship Game in Atlanta. They went down early against the Ravens in Super Bowl XLVII, but after making their own second-half comeback, a Baltimore stand from its own 5-yard line with 1:55 to go won it the title. The 49ers have subsequently been back to five conference championships and two Super Bowls, but they have no title to show for their efforts.
What did we learn about trendy picks for 2024?
Frankly, I'm more optimistic about getting behind these trendy picks than I was before I started this exercise. While acknowledging that only two of our 20 picks won the Super Bowl, considering how dominant the Patriots and Chiefs have been and how a handful of others advanced to the Super Bowl, there might be something to jumping on the bandwagon for these teams before they get too full.
With that being said, while no analysis is foolproof, I'd be hesitant to get behind teams that have obvious elements of the prior campaign that aren't likely to be sustainable in the following season. There are invariably arguments in favor of why those teams are likely to be exceptions to the rules we've learned, but more often than not, those arguments tend to fall by the wayside once the new year actually begins.
Of these three teams -- the Texans, Lions and Packers -- the one that seems most susceptible to taking a step backward is the one that went furthest last season. The Lions went 12-5 and might very well have deserved to beat the Cowboys if not for a questionable refereeing decision, but they had the point differential of a 10-win team. They went 5-3 in one-score games, which isn't outlandish by any means, but they lost by 32 points to the Ravens and by 15 to the Bears.
Even without an unsustainable record in close games, teams that outperform their point differential in that two-win range still tend to decline. If we look back to 1989 for similar teams -- teams that outplayed their Pythagorean expectation by 1.5 to 2.5 wins while winning between one and three more close games than they lost -- we get 42 examples. Twenty-two declined, 12 improved and eight kept the same record from the previous season. The average drop off was only about one win, though, which would suit the Lions just fine. With the fifth-youngest roster in the league, they could defy the odds and improve in 2024. I'd still be optimistic about them competing for a title, even as their schedule gets tougher.
The Texans could also struggle to sustain their turnover margin. Houston led the league by posting 14 turnovers in 17 games, which is both a testament to C.J. Stroud's talent and a product of good fortune. The team recovered 11 of its 17 fumbles on offense, a trait which is not likely to occur again next year. No young quarterback in history has ever been able to sustain the sort of 1% interception rate Stroud ran for an extended period of time; the only guy who has even come close over multiple seasons is Aaron Rodgers.
Stephen A. Smith and Mike Tannenbaum argue whether C.J. Stroud or Jordan Love would be the better quarterback to start a team with.
Stroud will still be very good, but the Texans probably won't turn the ball over once a game or so again in 2024. They were also surprisingly the league's fourth-oldest team a year ago, owing to how many free agents general manager Nick Caserio has signed over the past few seasons to fill out the roster. They're a unique team given that much of their core of stars (Stroud, Will Anderson Jr. and Derek Stingley Jr.) are in their early 20s, and they'll get some injured players who should be in their primes back for more regular snaps this season. Still, they are definitely older on the whole than you might think, and that could impact their development as a team.
There's less to worry about on Green Bay's résumé in terms of sustainability. They were the youngest team in football a year ago, but all of these teams are in great shape and are going to be competitive next season. Winning a title in the NFL is tough, and progress isn't linear. For every team like the Rams that knocks on the door and keeps pushing before eventually breaking through, there's a team like the 2017 Eagles or 2020 Buccaneers that makes a sudden leap forward and wins. I'll keep picking the Chiefs, but after taking a closer look, I wouldn't fault anyone for jumping on the bandwagons of the Lions, Packers or Texans in 2024.