The baseball world gathered in Texas for the 2024 MLB draft, Home Run Derby and All-Star Game this week, and our baseball reporters were there talking to execs, coaches, agents, scouts, players and other team sources.
While fans are focused on the excitement on the field, behind the scenes, it's a great place to gather intel on what teams are thinking with the MLB trade deadline just around the corner and get the pulse of those inside the game on the topics dominating the sport.
Our reporters empty their notebook with the latest news and rumors. Who are the big names to watch at the trade deadline? What's the latest buzz on the biggest free agent? And which teams and storylines will rule the second half? Here's everything we heard on the field in Arlington.
Who will be the biggest name to move at the MLB trade deadline?
Buster Olney: Unless the Toronto Blue Jays shift in what they've told teams recently and decide to deal Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, then Chicago White Sox All-Star Garrett Crochet will be the Lamborghini of this year's market -- the guy who could be the greatest difference-maker for the team that acquires him. That could be as a starting pitcher down the stretch, and then perhaps as a dominant reliever in the postseason.
Jesse Rogers: It's a tough call considering so many teams are in the hunt for the playoffs, especially in the crowded National League, and that limits who could be available. If the Chicago Cubs fall much farther back, they could decide to trade Cody Bellinger -- assuming there is a market for him as he has two player option years left at $30 million per year and is on the IL with a broken finger. The Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees could both be interested in Bellinger for different reasons: Seattle can't hit and New York is banged up. As a former MVP, Bellinger would be the biggest name if he goes somewhere, but Crochet is more likely to be dealt. The White Sox are starting over so a 4-for-1 deal providing system depth might look attractive to first-year GM Chris Getz.
Which direction are the Mets most likely to go at the deadline?
Jorge Castillo: The expectation around baseball is that the New York Mets will attempt to continue bolstering a lackluster bullpen running on fumes after acquiring Phil Maton last week. But that could depend on how the club performs over the next two weeks -- at least that's the impression Pete Alonso, a free agent this winter, communicated this week. The Mets' only All-Star insisted he doesn't believe the team has convinced the front office that they're playoff contenders despite surging into the third and final wild-card spot. The next two weeks before the deadline, he emphasized, are crucial. It's difficult to believe that the Mets will subtract at this point, but Alonso's point of view cannot be ignored.
Jeff Passan: New York is eagerly awaiting the return of right-hander Kodai Senga, whose bum shoulder kept him out the first half. His fastball is back sizzling at 95-97, his ghost fork is disappearing and if he can stay healthy, he's a massive addition to an overachieving bunch. The Mets were preparing to ship out a cadre of free-agents-to-be, and new president of baseball operations David Stearns would've reaped the benefits of the sellers' market that exists. As long as the Mets are in the wild-card hunt, though, that's an untenable tack. Instead, the expectation is they try to thread the needle of sending away some big league talent and acquiring others to fill positions of need. This is a tricky approach, as Stearns knows from dealing Josh Hader while with Milwaukee, but if done correctly, it can serve the present and future.
Which contenders will go really big at the deadline?
Rogers: It's the big boys: the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers. But don't discount the Astros, who see an opportunity in the AL West.
New York, in particular, is looking at all angles to improve as it hasn't been to a World Series since 2009. Desperate isn't a word executives like to be associated with but let's face it, a Steinbrenner-owned team with the longest-tenured GM needs to go deep into October. The Dodgers know they need to fortify on the mound, just look at last October as evidence for a letdown when your team has pitching injuries. They're not much more certain in their October pitching than they were last fall. They'll look to add Crochet and/or others.
Olney: The Yankees have to go big at the deadline; they cannot win in October with the bullpen they have. Maybe that means prying Tanner Scott away from the Marlins, or convincing the Athletics that now is the time to trade Mason Miller. But New York must add at least one big arm to its relief corps, and maybe two, as well as possible upgrades in the infield, to improve the depth of its lineup.
What's the latest on Juan Soto's free agency?
Olney: Hal Steinbrenner's comments earlier this season about being open to signing Juan Soto during the regular season completely perplexed executives who have negotiated with Soto's agent, Scott Boras. "I am not sure why he would say that," one said. "Boras is not going to get a superstar this close to free agency" -- to open bidding between rival teams -- "and then limit himself to negotiating with one team. All it does is raise expectations of fans."
At last check, there had been no recent conversations about a Soto megadeal between the Yankees and Boras and no momentum toward a deal before he reaches free agency. In the end, Soto might face this choice: Either take the Yankees' best offer, to play alongside Aaron Judge in a place where he seems to be having fun in 2024, or take more money from another team.
Castillo: The Philadelphia Phillies aren't an obvious destination for Soto. Owner John Middleton has already invested heavily into a star-studded roster expected to make another deep October run. But Middleton badly wants to win and general manager Dave Dombrowski isn't afraid to commit big money to stars. Remember: Philadelphia, somewhat surprisingly, made a substantial bid for Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter. Add that the Phillies have significant money coming off the books, that Trea Turner and Soto are close friends, and that Scott Boras has a notable history with Middleton -- Boras negotiated the contracts for Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos -- and the Phillies could be one of the teams attempting to pry Soto away from the Bronx this winter.
The team to beat in each league right now is ...?
Passan: The National League is easy: It's the Phillies and everyone else. They're incredibly talented, deep and boast a formidable offense, defense and pitching staff. If the Dodgers get healthy or the Braves fill holes, they're proper threats, but this is Philadelphia's pennant to lose.
The American League is trickier. The Baltimore Orioles have the most on-paper talent, the Cleveland Guardians the best first-half record and the New York Yankees the top run differential in the league. And that doesn't take into account the team with the best rotation (Seattle), the longest track record (Houston), the best offense over the past two months (Minnesota) or the hottest team (Boston). The answer is Baltimore, but it's not close to as definitive as in the NL.
Gonzalez: The wall to the left of an entrance to the National League clubhouse spoke volumes. It was lined with members of the Phillies -- first Bryce Harper, then Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Cristopher Sanchez, Matt Strahm and Jeff Hoffman. And that wasn't even accounting for the two absentees, Ranger Suarez and Zack Wheeler. As the second half begins, one thing is clear: In the NL, it's the Phillies and then everybody else. Everyone seems to agree there, though many will caution that things can change if the Dodgers get healthier.
In the AL, though, it's a little less clear. Some will say the Guardians are the most complete team, that the Mariners' starting pitching can carry them, that the Yankees have another dominant run in them, and that the Astros and Rangers have yet to play their best baseball. But if there's one team that pops up more than any other here, it's the Orioles. As one scout said: "They're already great. But they have the minor league depth to get whoever they want. That's the separator."
Will MLB offensive numbers pick up in the second half?
Passan: It all depends on whether the home run rate continues to rise. Almost everything in baseball is the same -- except for the percentage of home runs being hit. In April, 2.67% of plate appearances ended in homers. Over the three following months, it leapt to 2.77% in May, 3.07% in June and, albeit in a small sample, 3.42% midway through July. The rise in runs -- 4.29 per game in April, 4.57 in July -- can be attributed almost entirely to that. Certainly the warmer weather helps offense, as have the pitching injuries that have left big league rosters populated with lesser arm talent. But the trend is there, and while the leaguewide batting average has jumped from .239 in April and May to .250 in July, the added slug is far more pertinent to run-scoring in MLB.
Gonzalez: I posed this question to MLB commissioner Rob Manfred, who, in a meeting with members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America, talked up the shortened game times and the increased stolen bases that are a byproduct of the new rules. But he also acknowledged the issue with offense.
"Let me just make a couple of points, and I make them against the backdrop of believing you should get into rule changes and things like that when you see something that you really, truly believe is a persistent, problematic trend," Manfred said. "In terms of runs per game, we're exactly where we were last year. This year, in terms of offense, we have seen a significant uptick in June and July as the weather's gotten warmer. Having said that, decline in offense is something that we pay a lot of attention to and we'll continue to monitor to make a decision as to whether we think we need to do something. You do hear a lot of chatter about the dominance of pitching in the game. That's absolutely true."
What other intel did you hear during All-Star Week?
Passan: The immediate future of Garrett Crochet, 25, will depend on whether a contending team believes he can continue as a starter for the remainder of the season in spite of a massive innings jump. Wariness from other front offices surrounds the All-Star who threw more innings in the first half (107⅓) than he had over the previous four seasons (73). A healthy Crochet is elite, one of the most talented pitchers in the major leagues, but the White Sox have no intentions of taking less talent in return for him because acquiring teams might want to limit him this year and fully unleash him in 2025 and 2026. Before the end of the calendar year, Crochet will be wearing another uniform. Whether it's before the end of this season comes down to a team being willing to pay the price a top starter would typically draw for three playoff runs.
Gonzalez: The same Dodgers team that traded for Tyler Glasnow, signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto and brought back Clayton Kershaw in the offseason is expected to be among the most aggressive teams in pursuit of high-end starting pitching this month. With Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler struggling, Yamamoto out until at least August and Glasnow approaching his career high in innings, they have little choice. They're expected to chase only frontline starters, though -- not rotation fillers, like they essentially got last year while trading for Lance Lynn. If they can't get that type of arm, they'll probably shift their focus to the bullpen. It's why someone like Crochet makes a ton of sense for them, regardless of whether or not he's a starter the rest of the year.
Olney: One of the most disappointing teams this season, The Blue Jays are telling other clubs that they intend to try to win in 2025. That is being interpreted by other front offices, for now, that Toronto intends to trade only impending free agents, like pitcher Yusei Kikuchi, catcher Danny Jansen and veteran Justin Turner -- and not the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Chris Bassitt, who are all under club control through next season.
This will not necessarily be a popular decision for a frustrated Blue Jays fan base, which has seen the team keep the core of the team intact through extended struggles, but it might reflect the front office's desire to maintain a competitive team following an expensive ballpark renovation, rather than dive into an organizational rebuild. Keeping Vlad and Bichette would again defer the decision of whether to invest in either or both long term; they'll be eligible for free agency after the 2025 season.
Passan: The paucity of truly bad teams could put the dead in deadline -- unless more follow the thread-the-needle strategy of the Mets. For months, executives have waited for teams to separate themselves in the standings, and it simply hasn't happened. A full 40% of teams are within four games of .500 on either side. They don't want to deal away players and give away a potential playoff spot; they don't necessarily want to spend too much prospect capital in chasing what might be a wild-card-round loss, either. The next 10 days, then, will take on a disproportionate amount of meaning, and we might not know what the full extent of available players looks like until within 48 hours of the July 30 deadline.
Castillo: The Washington Nationals are very much open for business -- and that was apparent before their skid into the All-Star break. They started subtracting over the weekend when they traded reliever Hunter Harvey to the Kansas City Royals for a draft pick and a prospect. Outfielders Jesse Winker and Lane Thomas and relievers Dylan Floro and Kyle Finnegan are among the other players who could move to a contender by July 30.
Olney: After the National League was retired in the top of the second inning of the All-Star Game, the four All-Stars who had faced Paul Skenes in the bottom of the first inning got together to compare notes about what they had seen. Steven Kwan, Gunnar Henderson, Juan Soto and Aaron Judge stood in a circle, and as Soto acknowledged later, talked about Skenes -- what they had expected vs. what they had seen, and the movement of his pitches, with Kwan describing the trajectory of one of Skenes' pitches with a sweep of his hand.
Hitters talk about the opposing pitchers every day, of course. But this was a case of four stars on three different teams sharing observations about maybe the greatest young pitcher of this era, in an All-Star Game. Given the high anticipation of Skenes vs. this group of hitters, it was a conversation that could be reprised years from now, if or when one or more of this group winds up sitting together on the back porch of The Otesaga in Cooperstown, New York.