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Special to ESPN.com- Reed Kuhn is a Silicon Valley entrepreneur, and strategy and analytics consultant. He is the author of "Fightnomics: The Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts," the first book to quantify drivers and performance metrics in combat sports.
What do the analytics say about upcoming championship fights? Using predictive models agnostic of betting lines, we examined how each champion's matchup appears from a favorability view.
Essentially, is this a good matchup for the champion or the challenger? The inputs consider each fighter's performance metrics inside the Octagon and select factors about the fighter outside the cage. The higher the score, the more favorable the matchup for the incumbent champ.
These scores don't indicate how to bet the fight. They assess relative favorability, running from the riskiest to the best matchup.
Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker look ahead at three UFC title fights currently scheduled, along with one that's likely to get booked. They also assess a nontitle bout of special interest. Kuhn provides the model projections for each fight, while Parker details the betting perspective.
Editor's note: All odds are courtesy of ESPN BET.
Confirmed UFC bouts
Interim heavyweight title: Tom Aspinall (c) vs. Curtis Blaydes 2, UFC 304 on July 27
Analysis: -0.16, unfavorable for Aspinall
Kuhn on what the numbers mean: Aspinall's stats to date have been impressive, but with limited sample size, given he's only been out of the first round once. I liked the plus-money side for Blaydes in their first meeting and arguably got lucky with Apsinall's leg injury stoppage. Hopefully, we will see these guys put in work this time so that fight fans can see a competitive matchup.
The unfavorability stems from Blaydes's ground game, which is among the best in the division -- second only to Jailton Almeida in terms of dominance. Aspinall has a good ground game, but he's only faced two takedown attempts in his UFC career. Expect Blaydes to test the interim champ's wrestling more than ever. When Blaydes avoids extended periods of standup with power strikers -- like Aspinall -- he generally succeeds. History says, when in doubt, lean towards the grappler. Can Aspinall overcome history and the model and retain his title?
Parker on where the bettors lean: Aspinall to win. Blaydes is a good kickboxer and we know is a good offensive wrestler. But as we saw against Almeida, he's easily taken down even when the striking is not a threat. Aspinall currently sits at -245, and there is still tremendous value there. If you don't want to risk that number, wait for the TKO/KO prop to come out for Aspinall. I am confident that Aspinall will run through Blaydes in this rematch.
Middleweight title: Leon Edwards (c) vs. Belal Muhammad 2, UFC 304 on July 27
Analysis: -0.05, mildly unfavorable for Edwards
Kuhn on what the numbers mean: This one surprises me more than the others, as these two look fairly evenly matched on paper. Arguably, the metrics for Edwards could be viewed as depressed slightly due to spending the last 20 rounds of Octagon time against elite opponents Nate Diaz, Kamaru Usman (twice) and Colby Covington.
Muhammad is another capable wrestler who has developed decent standup. But his six knockdowns received and zero scored mean he's at risk in a shootout on the feet against "Rocky." Muhammad's wrestling will have to be stifling to mitigate that risk, and executing that plan over five rounds is no sure thing. Knowing there's a decent gap in the fighters' "strength of schedule" makes me believe Edwards is still in the driver's seat here.
Parker on where the bettors lean: Hit the over + fight going the distance. The betting community's leanings for this fight will be towards either the over -- which I assume will be over 4.5 rounds -- the fight going the distance, or whichever side you are on to win by submission. The fighters have combined for just one TKO loss in their respective histories. Both are very durable and high-IQ fighters, and I expect this to be a five-round chess match.
Women's flyweight title: Alexa Grasso (c) vs. Valentina Shevchenko 3, likely at UFC 306 on Sep. 14
Note: This bout has not yet been booked, but Grasso and Shevchenko have been named coaches on the next season of "The Ultimate Fighter," in the expectation that they will meet in the Octagon later this year to complete their trilogy.
Analysis: +0.15, favorable for Grasso
Kuhn on what the numbers mean: No surprise that the models like Grasso, given they've backed her twice already as a sizable underdog against Shevchenko. The striking metrics are very close. Shevchenko has elite defensive avoidance at range, but Grasso presses at a better pace and lands more strikes per minute. Grasso's poor defense is notable, but with Shevchenko now 36 years old, and Grasso having already scored a knockdown in their last fight, the power edge may lean Grasso. Her submission game is also much more dangerous, as Shevchenko has already learned.
Parker on where the bettors lean: Bet on "Bullet." In their first fight, Shevchenko was well on her way to a successful title defense until she made a grave mistake that cost her the belt. In the rematch at UFC 285, I scored the fight for Shevchenko, although the judges scored it as a draw, thus leaving Grasso as champion. I still believe Shevchenko is the better fighter, no matter where the fight goes in the Octagon. And it's hard to imagine she doesn't correct past mistakes in the trilogy bout. Grasso is dangerous if she can get her opponent's back, but if Shevchenko can prevent that from happening again, the title should go back to Kyrgyzstan.
Other high-profile main events
Main event: Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler, UFC 303 on June 29
Analysis: +0.07, favorable for McGregor
Kuhn on what the numbers mean: After one of the longest wait times for an announced matchup, with plenty of assumed volatility between the layoffs and out-of-cage factors, the fight between McGregor and Chandler is finally near. From an analytical perspective, based on past performance, it seems the McGregor camp was wise in their selection of a return opponent.
If precision power striking is McGregor's best trait, choosing a shorter-range opponent in Chandler, with the worst power head strike defense in the division, makes for a very favorable matchup. Chandler likes to swing for the fences and, in doing so, eats more shots in return than he's able to deliver. That tactic doesn't bode well if he can't connect or get the fight to the ground early. And that could be difficult, given Chandler's below-average takedown success rate and McGregor's above-average defense. The caveat here is simple: Can the 2024 version of McGregor be close to what his past performances indicate? If so, it could be a good night for "Notorious." If not, Chandler's chances certainly tick up a bit.
Parker on where the bettors lean: How many rounds? Who gets the finish? Currently, both fighters are sitting at -110 to win. So, if you believe Chandler is going to wrestle -- which he probably won't -- or beat McGregor due to his inactivity, I recommend betting him sooner rather than later. Most bettors will be looking at the over/under, which currently sits at 1.5 rounds, and the method of victory of a KO/TKO from either side. This fight isn't going all five rounds, not a chance.