Sean Strickland puts the UFC middleweight championship on the line in the first pay-per-view of the year as he takes on Dricus Du Plessis in the main event at UFC 297 in Toronto on Saturday (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNEWS/ESPN+ and early prelims at 6:30 on ESPN+).
Strickland (28-5), ranked No. 5 in ESPN's division rankings, will have his first title defense Saturday after beating Israel Adesanya by unanimous decision at UFC 293 to claim the title. Du Plessis (20-2), ranked ahead of Strickland at No. 2, is undefeated inside the Octagon. He finished each of his past three opponents.
In the co-main event, Raquel Pennington will face Mayra Bueno Silva for the vacant women's bantamweight title. Pennington (15-9), ESPN's No. 1-ranked bantamweight, enters the fight riding a five-fight win streak. Bueno Silva (10-2-1), unranked by ESPN, has submission wins over two of her past three opponents.
Marc Raimondi spoke to Fight Ready MMA coach Santino De Franco to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Middleweight title fight: Sean Strickland vs. Dricus Du Plessis
Santino De Franco, Fight Ready MMA coach
How Strickland wins: Strickland can't get overwhelmed or overexcited. Du Plessis has done a good job breaking everybody. He just goes in there like a wild man, and he's so chaotic that opponents match his intensity and try to beat him in the first round. But they're not used to it, and he's the one applying pressure, so they always gas themselves out.
Strickland has to kind of let Du Plessis go nuts, win a round or two -- just stay calm, be safe and not take much damage. Don't try to match Du Plessis' energy in the first two rounds. Then Strickland can come on and build. He has a good style to negate Du Plessis, because Strickland is not a fast, dynamic or wild fighter. Let Du Plessis swing and fight wildly, and then turn it on in the later rounds.
How Du Plessis wins: Maintain the aggression. If he fights from the outside -- trying to stay calm and technical with Strickland -- he will lose that battle. So, he has to keep the chaos going.
Can Du Plessis go full Du Plessis for five rounds? I don't know that he can. This isn't even a technical jab, punch, box, slip type of fight. This is a pressure versus calm type of fight. And I think Du Plessis is going to land well. He will have these big moments, the big explosive takedowns. But then he has got to score, and use them sparingly enough so that he doesn't completely gas out. That's a hard sell, being that chaotic.
X factor: Strickland's always the one in his opponent's head. But right now, Du Plessis is living rent-free in Strickland's head. Strickland is emotional. He's yelling. I read that he DM'd Du Plessis and threatened to stab him. This plays right into Du Plessis' game. And if Strickland comes out swinging like a madman because he's angry, instead of staying calm, using his Philly shell, that could be a problem for him.
Prediction: I am 0-6 on Du Plessis predictions. I always think Du Plessis will lose, and that son of a gun has proven me wrong every single time. When Robert Whittaker was fighting him, I thought there was no way Du Plessis would beat Whittaker. And sure as heck, he did.
So, with that, on completely untechnical analysis, a complete bias, I have to ride with Strickland. Or, not even with Strickland, I must keep going against Du Plessis until he finally falls. I just have to keep doubling down and doubling down and doubling down. At some point, he has got to fall. But until we get there, I must keep riding against him, because I cannot fathom how he wins.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Lean Strickland to win (-135). Strickland's style is clearly understood but still so tricky that even skilled strikers have a tough time dealing with it. Like former men's featherweight champion Max Holloway, Strickland uses a high volume of punches that frustrates and stifles opponents, while piling up points.
He remains vulnerable on the ground, and Du Plessis occasionally relies on grappling, but getting Strickland on the mat long enough to set up a finish is no easy task. And if the pace of the early rounds is high, Du Plessis might not have enough in the tank.
If Strickland survives the early threats, he could still win enough rounds via peppering punches. Either way, I'm not anticipating the main event deciding my night of bets, though I would add a low-round total play for parlays.
Parker: Du Plessis to win (+115). The biggest question going into this fight is: Can Du Plessis' cardio hold up for five rounds if he cannot finish Strickland early? After seeing his last fight against Whittaker and the pace he put on, I believe it can. Du Plessis is an awkward fighter on the feet but carries knockout power that can end a fight at any moment.
The part of Du Plessis' game that we don't often see, but is vastly underrated, is his ground game. For Strickland, I have to assume his game plan is to use the jab, dictate the pace, and drag Du Plessis into deep waters. However, it's tough to dictate the pace against a fighter like Du Plessis, who constantly switches stances and bull-rushes in with power behind his strikes.
I'm going with the underdog in Du Plessis here. I believe his awkward style will keep Strickland at bay and on his back foot during the fight.
Women's bantamweight title fight: Raquel Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
Santino DeFranco, Fight Ready MMA coach
How Pennington wins: Stick to her boxing. Her boxing has continually improved as of late. And her clinch work is good. She knows how to win, and she doesn't deviate from that. I like that about her. A real veteran's mindset.
How Bueno Silva wins: On a technical level, she's very good. She has good hands and power, but more than anything, she has a lot of speed and athleticism. Bueno Silva seems to be that younger, dynamic kind of exciting fighter, whereas Pennington is a little bit older and is slowing down a bit. And as much as I like Pennington's boxing work, she's a bit one-dimensional now.
X factor: This will come down to speed and cardio because Bueno Silva is fresh. I think she's going to look really good. But if she starts to fade and get a little sloppy, Pennington can use her technical boxing to get inside and get to work. Technique and speed are the first two things to fade when the cardio goes. And if Bueno Silva's cardio goes, Pennington has the technique, speed and the veteran acumen to edge out rounds and win.
Prediction: I lean Bueno Silva. I think that young, fast and athletic style will be enough to get it done if she doesn't get too excited too soon and gas herself out within two or three rounds. I think Bueno Silva might be able to find a finish. Pennington, although her boxing is good, she stays in the pocket and will get hit. I could see some flying knees and a lot of off-angle striking from Bueno Silva, just going out there trying to take Pennington's head off.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Lean Pennington to win (+140), over 2.5 rounds. This title fight has dynamics similar to the main event, in that a fighter with a conservative and frustrating style still poses problems for a more dangerous opponent. Pennington has a way of combining control time with enough volume striking to edge out close rounds. The clinch is where she has earned plenty of control time, which happens to be where Silva has been held before.
Silva has the finishing potential, locking three consecutive submissions on her path to the title. And yet, Pennington has been submitted only once in her long career, and that was well over a decade ago. As with the main event, I'm backing the more "boring" fighter and the over, while acknowledging greater finishing potential in the favorite. That makes neither a strong lean because of that risk.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Men's featherweight: Arnold Allen vs. Movsar Evloev
Parker: Evloev to win (-200). As talented as Allen is, I think this is a bad matchup for him. Unless he can land early, the way he did against Dan Hooker, I fully expect Evloev to push the pace and use his striking to set up the wrestling. Considering this is only a three-round fight, Evloev's constant chain wrestling will keep Allen on the defense and likely on his back for the better part of the fight.
Middleweight: Chris Curtis vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
Kuhn: Barriault to win (+165). For a potential upset, consider a middleweight who should have plenty of opportunity to unleash his hands. Barriault is a guy who keeps improving, while Curtis has looked great at times, but against one-dimensional fighters.
With almost no ground game between the two, Curtis tends to absorb more damage than he dishes out, which opens the door for an upset. And maybe the Canadian will get a boost from the crowd support.
Men's bantamweight: Brad Katona vs. Garrett Armfield
Parker: Katona to win (-195). Katona is making his second run in the UFC, and this matchup against Armfield favors him tremendously. Katona is well-rounded and will be the better fighter no matter where the fight goes. I expect Katona to weather a high pace from Armfield early, and once able to slow him down with kicks, Katona will pick him apart to get the win.
Women's flyweight: Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Kuhn: Jasudavicius to win (-385). There's a glaring wrestling mismatch on the early prelims. Jasudavicius uses wrestling early and often, spending nearly a third of all Octagon time controlling opponents on the mat. Meanwhile, Cachoeira has avoided wrestling, with mediocre takedown defense and minimal time in control.
Cachoeira has also been especially vulnerable to finishes, being submitted in three of her five UFC losses. While she's the greater threat on the feet, we can't expect Jasudavicius to stay there for long.