Former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas takes on Tracy Cortez in the main event at UFC Fight Night at Ball Arena in Denver on Saturday night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 7 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN+).
Namajunas (12-6), who recently moved up to women's flyweight since losing the strawweight title in May 2022, struggled in her 125-pound debut against top contender Manon Fiorot last September, losing by unanimous decision before bouncing back with an impressive unanimous decision win over Amanda Ribas in March. On the other hand, Cortez (11-1) has put together an impressive 11-fight win streak dating back to November 2017. Most recently, Cortez beat Jasmine Jasudavicius by unanimous decision at Noche UFC last September. Cortez accepted this fight on short notice after Maycee Barber withdrew.
Andreas Hale spoke to former UFC women's featherweight and MMA analyst Megan Anderson, while Brett Okamoto spoke to Syndicate MMA coach John Wood for their perspectives on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds his insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Women's flyweight: Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez
John Wood, Syndicate MMA coach
How Namajunas wins: I'd like to see her mix in some wrestling and her ground game. Cortez has the advantage in boxing, particularly with the power shots. Namajunas hasn't looked like herself yet at 125 pounds, and mixing up her game would help. Cortez is legit on the ground, but Namajunas was a great grappler and submission artist early in her career. If she can implement some wrestling and control some positions, it could get her ahead on the cards. Overall, she needs to be more aggressive and return to what got her here. She's been too tentative in her recent fights.
How Cortez wins: Get her hands going. Move forward and take the fight to Namajunas with her boxing. If Cortez just fights a smart fight and leads the dance, there's a chance she could win a boring fight here. Lately, Namajunas has conceded to playing the points game. And her tentativeness could lose her a close fight. She hasn't had that gas pedal lately. So, if Cortez can control the range and push her against the fence here and there, she could build an advantage. Grappling could be a key for her as well because I expect a close fight.
X factor: Namajunas' cardio at elevation. She's fighting at home and is used to five-round fights, so cardio could be a difference-maker.
Prediction: Namajunas to win by close decision.
Anderson: Professor "Thug" Rose loading?
Namajunas has to make this a "MasterClass" in Striking 101. Keep it standing and maintain the distance. Namajunas has immaculate striking and range control that she blends well. She has to avoid wrestling and grappling as much as possible. Focus on the striking, the movement and keeping the fight at range. Cortez is an easy opponent to do that against, compared to many opponents Namajunas has fought.
Namajunas has had some issues at 125 pounds with the larger fighters because she no longer has the size advantage in this new division. She also doesn't have the power she had at 115 pounds and tends to struggle managing her energy output while defending takedowns at 125. They will try to keep her down because they have a bit of size on her.
For Cortez to shut down Namajunas' striking and movement, she has to close the distance and pin Namajunas down. Be on Namajunas at all times. Look to grapple, look to wrestle, don't give her space.
Cortez's striking looked great in her last fight -- and she has made improvements -- but the level of competition she's fought compared to that of Namajunas is not as good. Cortez has had issues with opponents who move a lot, but if she can match Namajunas' pace and walk her down, she could be successful.
Cortez stepped up in competition on short notice, which is a tough ask. It's also five rounds -- Cortez has never fought a five-round fight in the UFC. We know that Namajunas can go five hard rounds back and forth against the best in the world. This is where she does her best because she knows how to manage the championship rounds. That will play in Namajunas' favor.
Betting analysis
Parker: Namajunas to win (-220). Rose is coming off her first win in the weight class, and due to her value in the sport, she may be just one fight away from a title shot. This may be too soon to take such a big step up in competition for Cortez. Cortez takes a wrestling-heavy approach, which Namajunas has seen before and had success against. At a -220, according to ESPN BET, take Namajunas on the moneyline. As long as she can keep the fight standing, Namajunas will have the advantage.
Parker's best bets on the rest of the card
Welterweight: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov
Ponzinibbio to win (-195). Ponzinibbio returns after a year away from the Octagon. This is a good matchup for him, as he won't have to worry about defending takedowns or many powerful strikes. Salikhov is coming off back-to-back losses and unless he lands something magical, I believe the volume and precision of Ponzinibbio's striking should get him back in the win column.
Featherweight: Julian Erosa vs. Christian Rodriguez
Rodriguez to win (-220). After dropping a decision loss to Jonathan Pearce in 2022, Rodriguez has gone on a four-fight winning streak and has proven that he is never out of a fight. Erosa is always dangerous, but tends to make mistakes. Considering Rodiguez's high fight IQ and phenomenal cardio, he can drag Erosa into deep waters and tire him out throughout three rounds. Unless Erosa pulls off an unexpected submission, expect Rodriguez to grind his way to victory.
Middleweight: Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Cody Brundage
Under 2.5 rounds. It's rare we get a striker with minimal ground game against a wrestler with lackluster striking but here we are. Both fighters are known for finishing opponents or getting finished -- this fight isn't going bell to bell. In Razak Alhassan's last fight, he got tired after Round 1 and was submitted by Joe Pyfer. If he can't keep this fight on standing, we could see a similar fate in favor of Brundage. However, if Brundage can't get this fight to the mat, we will likely see him being sent to the shadow realm. I don't mind the under 1.5 rounds here, however the safer play is taking under 2.5 rounds.