To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a concise and thorough scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Fran Fraschilla (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices). Here's a look at Frank Kaminsky.
WARP Projection: 2.7 (5th among players in top 100). Comparables: Jon Leuer (93.8), Nick Fazekas (92.5), Justin Harper (91.9), JaJuan Johnson (90.7). Strengths: Usage, 2P%, Shooting, Assist%, TO%. Weaknesses: Rebound%.
The analytics perspective
Kaminsky's most similar players are surprisingly poor, but none of the similarity scores are particularly high and none of those stretch big men were nearly as dominant at the college level as Kaminsky, who won both the Wooden and Naismith awards as the country's best player as a senior.
Finding a good comparison for Kaminsky is challenging. Channing Frye of the Orlando Magic and Spencer Hawes of the Los Angeles Clippers have a similar combination of shooting ability and size, but neither was as effective from the perimeter in college as Kaminsky. Frye made six 3-pointers in four years at Arizona, and Hawes had a single triple in his lone season at Washington. They didn't move to the perimeter until years into their NBA career. Kaminsky, by contrast, made 79 3s during his last two collegiate seasons at nearly a 40 percent clip.
At the same time, Kaminsky shouldn't be reduced to simply a floor-spacer. He also made 58 percent of his 2-pointers in his college career, and got to the free throw line a healthy 5.1 times per game as a senior. Those are easy points for Kaminsky, a 76.3 percent career free throw shooter.
There are some statistical reasons for concern about Kaminsky's defense. He's a poor defensive rebounder for a post player, and his block rate would be a weakness if he was strictly considered a center. But these weaknesses are caution flags rather than red flags, and if Kaminsky is merely adequate at the defensive end, his offense should make him a valuable rotation player.
-- Kevin Pelton
The scouting perspective
The NBA game is changing, which bodes well for Kaminsky and his professional career. The game is about spacing and skill, and a 7-foot center who can play away from the basket has a place in the league. That kind of guy, who can spread the floor for his teammates, will be welcomed with open arms.
Kaminsky's uniqueness is in his versatility and efficiency. Though he's not the best athlete in this draft, he has great agility and footwork and above average offensive skills for his size. And while he can post up and play off the lane in isolation situations, his outside shooting will cause issues for NBA defenses.
There is no guarantee that he can shoot the same 42 percent behind the NBA 3-point line that he did in college, but it would be huge. His ability to make that shot will not only open up the lane for his teammates, but their offensive ability, optimally, will make the game easier for him as well. He may be surprised at how open he is, at times, playing with the best players in the world.
Defensively, Kaminsky will have issues defending the league's premier big men, though he is not alone in that regard. And while his ceiling may be as an NBA starter, more than likely early in his career he'll be guarding backup centers who have limited ability to hurt him on the offensive end.
Stat geeks should not fret about Kaminsky's low offensive rebounding numbers. The major reason that the Badgers were a great defensive team was that they rarely sent their big men to the glass, but instead retreated to build their half-court defense.
Because Kaminsky is a high-character guy who has made himself into an NBA player and knows how to play, he will fit the culture of most teams in the league. Although he was a four-year player at Wisconsin, his chance to keep improving the way he has means he is still on an upward trajectory.
-- Fran Fraschilla
Kamsinky was a lightly regarded prospect until a breakout in the NCAA tournament as a junior. He flirted with declaring for the 2014 draft and would've been a likely late first-rounder, but elected to return for his senior season and the decision was a good one. A large contingent of scouts were on the fence about Kaminsky's prospects as a junior. But his terrific play as a senior has quieted most of the doubts. There aren't many 7-footers who are as versatile as Kaminsky. His ability to stretch the floor and put the ball on the floor off the high post is pretty unique. And while he's not an elite rebounder or defender, he's not bad.
Scouts worry about his lack of elite strength or explosiveness and that limits his ceiling (as does his age). But more and more, just about every NBA scout or GM you speak to has gotten on his bandwagon.
"You actually don't want to like a kid like that," one GM said. "He's old, his game doesn't translate, he has no upside. But the more you watch him all year, the more he grows on you. He doesn't fit the typical model of what we look for as far as NBA strength and athleticism goes. But he's so skilled and found a way all year to play against elite competition. I think he's got a chance to be a Channing Frye-type player in the NBA."
Look for Kaminsky to go somewhere in the 10-to-17 range on draft night.
-- Chad Ford