The Philadelphia Eagles own an NFC-best four playoff victories since drafting quarterback Carson Wentz No. 2 overall in 2016. They're right on schedule, except for one detail: Nick Foles was the starting quarterback for all four postseason wins.
The Eagles' 20-14 defeat at New Orleans in the divisional round Sunday prevents Foles from competing for a second consecutive Super Bowl MVP award. Foles' success across two postseasons creates an unusual dynamic, however.
Philadelphia has a $20 million option to keep Foles in 2019. He could pay back $2 million in signing bonus to void the option if he thought a better opportunity awaited in free agency. The transition or franchise tags would allow the Eagles to regain control, but the price would rival or exceed the $20 million option. In the middle of all this, Wentz will become eligible for his own extension.
I've spent the past week talking through scenarios with NFL decision-makers to forecast the future for Foles and the Eagles. Team executives disagree over how the parties should and will proceed, hinting at the uncertainty of the situation. Three of their arguments take center stage here.
Scenario 1: Eagles exercise option, and Foles stays
Foles has been outstanding as a spot starter under coach Doug Pederson. His credentials as a full-time starter are spotty, especially when he left the Eagles in 2015. A strong case can be made that Foles fits best in Philadelphia while projecting as a higher-risk starter elsewhere.
"I would exercise the option if I were them and I would just take my $20 million if I were him," a team contract negotiator said. "From a team standpoint, Wentz is an asset. From a player standpoint, Foles is not the type to say, 'Screw you, I'm going to go get my money.' He is very mild-mannered. If he can get $20 million to play this role that he loves and still be a free agent next year, why not? He hated the experience the last time he left Philly."
Carrying the $20 million salary for a backup quarterback would limit the Eagles' roster flexibility. This contract negotiator said there could be workarounds. For example, the Eagles could propose paying $10 million to Foles in 2019 and a little more to him in a guaranteed roster bonus payable in early 2020. The deal would then void shortly after Foles collected the roster bonus, allowing him to reach the market after next season, with at least $20 million in his pocket (Foles' career earnings to this point exceed $30 million).
Execs supporting this scenario said they thought Philadelphia needed a viable backup based on Wentz's injury history. Wrist surgery forced Wentz to miss four games in 2015, his final season at North Dakota State. Wentz played through broken ribs as a rookie in 2016, then suffered a season-ending torn ACL in 2017 and a season-ending fractured vertebra this season.
"You have to have an honest conversation with yourself about [Wentz's] health," an exec said. "Are you really going to sink $35 million a year into him? At quarterback, if your guy goes down, you are usually screwed because you are not paying a backup, but with Wentz, you need to pay a backup, unless you can cheat for a year with [Nate] Sudfeld."
A different exec pushed back against the Wentz injury concerns, noting that the injuries were not chronic in nature, and that Wentz just needed to tone down some of his aggressive plays.
This scenario also holds that Foles would rather have the $20 million from Philly than pay back $2 million for the right to take his chances in the market.
"If you are a team talking to him on the down-low in January or February, you know you have to pay more than $20 million, because that is the starting point," an exec said. "Would you do that if you were, say, Jacksonville?"
Scenario 2: Eagles exercise option, try to trade Foles
The Eagles could consider trade options before the $20 million becomes guaranteed on the fifth day of the league year in March. However, any team acquiring Foles might, in theory, have to part with compensation while also feeling good enough about Foles to exceed the $20 million figure, on the thinking Foles might not take less from another team, even if he could start.
"I can see somebody putting him in that $18 million range even for three years instead of two because he is doing it two separate times," an exec said, "but I would worry like crazy that the Philadelphia fit is a huge part of what made him successful."
Though Foles was indeed with Philadelphia when he tossed 27 touchdown passes with two interceptions in 2013, the coaching staff and offensive system were different. When Foles faltered with St. Louis in 2015, he was playing under some of the same conditions that contributed to Jared Goff struggling as a rookie the following season. Goff flourished when those conditions became more favorable to him. Foles plausibly could as well.
"I see him as streaky," another exec said. "He is the perfect playoff quarterback for an underdog team, but not someone to play with over a full season."
Scenario 3: Foles tests market while Eagles keep open the door
Foles would reach the market one way or another under this scenario. The Eagles would either decline the option, or Foles would buy his way out with the $2 million bonus repayment. Foles would return to the Eagles on a strong backup deal if another team did not step up with an offer to his liking.
"It's hard to see a team trading for him at one year and $20 million fully guaranteed," said an exec who sees Philly letting Foles reach the market. "If someone does, I think the price would be for less than whatever comp pick Philly would get back if Foles signed somewhere as a free agent."
This exec and others doubted Philly would use the franchise tag or transition tag on Foles to facilitate a trade. The salaries associated with those tags would fall in the $20-25 million range and become fully guaranteed. If the Eagles could trade Foles at those prices, would the 2019 draft compensation exceed the 2020 comp pick they would get by letting him walk in free agency?
A final bizarro thought: Trade Wentz?
Before the Eagles lost Sunday, I asked execs what the fallout could have been if Foles had led Philadelphia to a second consecutive Super Bowl victory.
Would it have been tough to move on from a two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback? Would the Eagles consider trading Wentz and keeping Foles if they could get, say, three first-round picks in return? The Saints cut off that conversation.
"That is just crazy," an evaluator protested. "Carson regressed, but he regressed from being on pace for an MVP-type season to having a big year coming off an ACL. He should be even better next year. The question I had, if the Eagles kept winning playoff games with Foles, was whether it might just be better to move on from Foles and not even have it as a potential topic."
That remains one of the options on the table for Foles and the Eagles, but not the only one. This situation could head in any of multiple directions from here.