Last week, I handed out offseason superlatives for teams in the NFC by noting the work each completed and what each seemed to leave behind over the past few months, and what all that could mean for the 2024 season.
Let's switch gears and move to the AFC. Which team's contention window might have closed before it ever truly felt open? Which team might have had its offseason set back by losing a positional coach? And which team should surprisingly be in the market for talent at the trade deadline in November?
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We'll start in Buffalo, where the Bills will have more new faces than you might have noticed:
Jump to an AFC team:
BAL | BUF | CIN | CLE
DEN | HOU | IND | JAX
KC | LAC | LV | MIA
NE | NYJ | PIT | TEN
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
The superlative: Team most likely to have your friend who casually watches be shocked in Week 1 when their favorite player isn't on the team anymore
OK, this one's a little wordy, but you get the idea: Beyond quarterback Josh Allen, much of the core of the Buffalo teams that won 58 regular-season games over the past five seasons is gone. Of the 12 players who played the most snaps on offense or defense for the Bills over that five-year span, six left this offseason: wide receivers Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs and center Mitch Morse on offense, and safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer and cornerback Tre'Davious White on defense. A seventh, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, left in free agency last offseason.
The players from that core still in Bills uniforms are building blocks: Allen, offensive tackle Dion Dawkins, tight end Dawson Knox, corner Taron Johnson and linebacker Matt Milano. The big question for GM Brandon Beane and coach Sean McDermott will be whether any of the young players join them. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver has already done enough and earned a significant extension, but can 2021 first-rounder Greg Rousseau make the leap many were expecting last season and develop into an upper-echelon pass-rusher? Will cornerback Kaiir Elam, who struggled as a rookie and missed most of 2023 with a foot injury, beat out Christian Benford for a starting job? Can tight end Dalton Kincaid and rookie receiver Keon Coleman be the focal points of the passing attack?
In what amounts to a retooling season, the Bills don't have any alternatives beyond those players breaking out. Most of their signings were the sorts of moves Houston GM Nick Caserio typically makes, loading up on low-cost veterans to add depth on one-year pacts, with slot receiver Curtis Samuel as the lone exception. I like some of those moves -- safety Mike Edwards and defensive tackle Austin Johnson are likely to be underrated contributors -- but this is the least-imposing roster Buffalo has rolled out on paper since its breakout in 2019. The Bills are going to need that young talent to develop quickly to stay atop the AFC East.
Miami Dolphins
The superlative: Team most likely to have inspired whiplash
The Dolphins seem to be speed-running the life cycle of an NFL organization. They started tanking in 2019 and were already a competitive team under then-coach Brian Flores by the end of the season. A year later, they posted a winning record. They've traded first-rounders for veteran talents such as Bradley Chubb and Tyreek Hill, drafted well, plugged holes in free agency and hired much-hyped coaches such as Mike McDaniel and Vic Fangio. This time a year ago, it felt like they were ready to take a leap into the elite of the NFL.
Now? After a season that again fell apart in December and January, it feels like they're already on the way down. The wildly lauded hire of Fangio to run the defense failed to work out, leading Miami to part ways after one season. Cap constraints caused the team to move on from defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, cornerback Xavien Howard, edge rusher Emmanuel Ogbah, guard Robert Hunt and linebackers Jerome Baker and Andrew Van Ginkel. Most of the Dolphins' additions were veterans whose names might be bigger than their level of play at this point of their careers in wideout Odell Beckham Jr., safety Jordan Poyer and pass-rusher Shaq Barrett.
The Dolphins have only $1.8 million in cap space and still have a lot of work to do this offseason. The core of their excellent 2020 draft has become eligible for extensions. Receiver Jaylen Waddle and safety Jevon Holland should get market-value deals for their respective positions, and edge rusher Jaelan Phillips should join them if he recovers from his torn Achilles. Miami holds fifth-year options on Waddle and Phillips, but waiting to get those deals done will only make its cap situation more difficult in the years to come.
The specter of what to do with 26-year-old quarterback Tua Tagovailoa also hangs over this franchise. The numbers are the numbers: He completed more than 69% of his passes last season and led the league in passing yards (4,624) . He ranked No. 1 in yards per attempt and passer rating the previous season. And yet, down the stretch, the Dolphins looked like they couldn't get going on offense, culminating in a dismal performance in the brutal cold against the Chiefs in a loss in the wild-card round.
The going rate for quarterbacks in Tagovailoa's tier has plenty of sticker shock. Would Miami want to give him the four-year, $212 million extension the Lions just handed Jared Goff? It's tough to justify asking him to take anything less, given that he's much younger than Kirk Cousins (35) and more productive than Daniel Jones. This is a dangerous tier of quarterback to pay, and the Dolphins might take a step backward regardless of their choice. For now, Tagovailoa is set to play out his fifth-year option of $23.1 million, with more than $100 million guaranteed on a potential extension riding on what he does next.
New England Patriots
The superlative: Team most focused on quantity over quality
The Patriots landed their quarterback of the future in No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye and, in the long run, that decision will come to define their offseason. Around him, though, they seemed to focus more in quantity than quality. This was a team that came into the offseason realistically hoping to add a new starting quarterback, No. 1 wide receiver and starting left tackle.
Maye answers the first problem, but the Patriots seemed to throw darts at the wall to address the other issues. At wide receiver, they swapped out DeVante Parker for former Vikings third wideout K.J. Osborn and used second- and fourth-round picks on Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, respectively. Polk could emerge as a No. 1 -- and JuJu Smith-Schuster is reportedly healthy after being limited by a knee injury last season -- but this feels like an offense without a focal point at receiver.
Left tackle is even messier. After cutting Conor McDermott and letting Trent Brown leave in free agency, the Patriots signed former Steelers lineman Chukwuma Okorafor and drafted Penn State tackle Caedan Wallace in the third round. The only problem is both Okorafor and Wallace have spent their recent careers playing right tackle, meaning one will have to jump to the left side to protect Maye's blindside as a rookie.
This isn't the worst idea. Teams are often overconfident about their ability to land one player in a specific position, and so it's sometimes better to try to draft multiple contributors at a position in the hope that competition or good fortune lands you starting-caliber talent. (The Packers seem to be building this way, for example.) If Polk emerges as a top wideout and the Pats give their left tackle some help with chips and double-teams, they'll be fine. Just don't be surprised if they're back in the market for a left tackle next offseason.
New York Jets
The superlative: Team least likely to turn to offensive linemen off the street for the second consecutive season
If you checked out on the Jets' season after the Aaron Rodgers injury last September, things didn't get much better on offense. Quarterback Zach Wilson was benched, reportedly didn't want to return as the starter because he was worried about getting injured and then was concussed when he returned to the field. Building a receiving corps around people who are green circle friends with Rodgers on social media didn't work, as Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb failed to emerge beyond Garrett Wilson and fell off the active roster. Running back Breece Hall popped up with big plays at the beginning and end of the season, but free agent signing Dalvin Cook was one of the league's worst backs and lost his job late in the season.
The New York offensive line was on another level. A group that looked paper-thin heading into the season lived down to expectations. Veteran left tackle Duane Brown made it through two games before going down with a hip injury; he played just 10 snaps the rest of the way. Tackle Mekhi Becton played 16 games but looked a lot like a tackle who had missed most of the prior two seasons with injuries. When guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Connor McGovern both went down with season-ending injuries before November, the Jets were hopelessly beaten down up front.
In the end, 13 different offensive linemen started at least one game for the Jets. By the end of the season, they were starting players signed off practice squads, including Jake Hanson and Xavier Newman. With the 40-year-old Rodgers returning for what might be his final season in 2024, the Jets needed to upgrade both the quality and depth of their offensive line.
We'll see how it goes once the season begins, but you can't fault GM Joe Douglas for trying. Out went virtually everybody the Jets were relying upon last season beyond Vera-Tucker and Joe Tippmann, who will start at center. Douglas traded for right tackle Morgan Moses, signed John Simpson from the same Ravens team to line up at left guard and then made his big splash by adding Tyron Smith, who was arguably the league's best left tackle by the pressure metrics from NFL Next Gen Stats a year ago.
Smith hasn't played a full season in nearly a decade, so the Jets needed to build their roster as if he was going to play 13 games, not 17. Enter Olu Fashanu, for whom Douglas moved down and still managed to draft at No. 11 overall. Fashanu will be New York's left tackle of the future. In 2024, he could start ahead of Moses at right tackle, fill in for Smith when needed at left tackle, serve as a right guard if Vera-Tucker isn't ready to start the season with his Achilles injury or play swing tackle.
The Jets could still stand to add one more veteran interior lineman in reserve, but at the very least, everyone backing up at guard and center got to play meaningful snaps last season. Given the additions made at receiver, this offense looks much better around Rodgers than it did this time a year ago.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens
The superlative: Team most likely to trust in itself
No organization can keep all of its outgoing free agents without spreading itself so financially thin that its roster snaps. The Ravens have been in the midst of competing in the AFC for most of the past, oh, 25 years, and they have a strong handle on what they're good at and where they can develop talent. With reigning MVP Lamar Jackson now in the middle of his new contract extension, GM Eric DeCosta & Co. had to be thoughtful about where they used their money and draft picks this offseason.
As an example, the Ravens have a long record of drafting and developing interior linemen or otherwise acquiring journeymen linemen who become useful starters. Last year, they lost guard Ben Powers and replaced him with John Simpson, who had been anonymous with the Raiders. They also let veteran guard Kevin Zeitler leave this offseason, and we'll see Patrick Mekari, Ben Cleveland, Andrew Vorhees and Josh Jones compete for starting work on the interior around center Tyler Linderbaum.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Ravens probably had to choose between keeping one of their two standout draftees. With Roquan Smith playing at an All-Pro level at middle linebacker, the choice was easy: They let Patrick Queen depart and retained interior disruptor Justin Madubuike, who was one of the league's most dominant defensive linemen a year ago. And while veteran corners Ronald Darby and Rock Ya-Sin left the team, Baltimore used its first-round pick on Nate Wiggins, who should emerge as a starter alongside Marlon Humphrey as early as this season.
Does every draft pick work out? Of course not. Given what they can control, though, the Ravens were thoughtful about whom they prioritized keeping and where they felt confident in rebuilding. Admittedly, they did trade for Smith in 2022 after Queen struggled earlier in his career, and I'd like to see them add at least one veteran offensive lineman to their roster after June 1. Still, they are going to continue to be competitive with this approach for years to come.
Cincinnati Bengals
The superlative: Team least likely to have its 2024 season ruined by what ruined its season in 2023
The Bengals came into the offseason with a clear mantra: Fix what went wrong last season. Director of player personnel Duke Tobin and coach Zac Taylor can't guarantee their solutions will solve everything, but this is another team in the AFC North with a logical plan for addressing its issues.
Obviously, the biggest problem for Cincinnati in 2023 was the series of injuries suffered by quarterback Joe Burrow, who was limited to start the season by a calf issue and then underwent season-ending right wrist surgery in November. Those injuries weren't necessarily caused by traumatic hits, but they might very well be a product of wear and tear and prior hits adding up. He has sped up his processing and does a great job of getting the ball out quickly, but as we saw at times in 2021 and 2022, his offensive line hasn't always been up to the task of letting him work.
The Bengals have continued to invest in their offensive line, and this offseason took that to a new level. They landed what might be one of the best deals of the offseason when they signed left tackle Trent Brown to a one-year deal for $4.8 million to take over for Jonah Williams. Brown has had issues staying healthy and with motivation in previous years, but he has been a great left tackle and an upper-echelon right tackle at different points in his career. The Bengals also used their first-round pick on raw Georgia tackle Amarius Mims, giving them a long-term prospect and a potential replacement if Brown isn't available.
On defense, the secondary fell apart last season after losing starting safeties Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell. Nick Scott never seemed to settle in after joining from the Rams, while former first-round pick Dax Hill hasn't been what the team hoped at free safety. The instability at safety might have limited what crafty defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo was comfortable doing on that side of the ball. The Bengals dropped from 10th in QBR allowed without pressure in 2022 to 27th in 2023, and they fell from seventh in QBR allowed while blitzing in 2022 to 24th.
Bates is on a long-term deal with the Falcons, but Bell didn't pan out with the Panthers, so Cincinnati brought him back to take over one starting spot. It imported veteran Geno Stone from the Ravens to play the other starting role. Both are comfortable working in the box and as a free safety, which should allow Anarumo more flexibility to hide his hand pre-snap. Hill is expected to move to cornerback, although he might play a little bit at multiple positions in a reserve role.
Cleveland Browns
The superlative: Team most likely to miss a departed coach
The most important move for the Browns after their impressive 11-6 campaign might have come off the field. The organization let legendary offensive line coach Bill Callahan leave to join the Titans, where he'll work underneath his son, Brian, who took over as Tennessee's coach.
Eagles fans will understandably shout about the work Jeff Stoutland has done, but Callahan has a well-earned reputation as one of the best positional coaches in any role across the league. He has helped unheralded or inconsistent linemen such as Wyatt Teller and Ethan Pocic play their best football after arriving in Cleveland, and he might have been most valuable to the organization in 2023.
Consider that the Browns lost starting right tackle Jack Conklin to a serious knee injury in Week 1, ending the former All-Pro's season as it began. The team promoted rookie fourth-rounder Dawand Jones to the right tackle role, and Jones looked like a seasoned pro before going down with his own season-ending knee injury in December. By the end of the season, the Browns were starting second-stringer Geron Christian at left tackle and third-stringer James Hudson at right tackle in front of 38-year-old quarterback Joe Flacco, who wasn't exactly known for being fleet of foot even earlier in his career.
It's tough to believe Cleveland would have survived on offense in December without Callahan, who earned his paycheck. The Browns will be happy to get Conklin, Jones and Jedrick Wills Jr. back in the fold, and new offensive line coach Andy Dickerson helped bring along Charles Cross and other young linemen in Seattle, but Callahan is a Hall of Fame-caliber positional coach. It's a huge loss, even if it isn't tough to understand why they let him leave.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The superlative: Team most likely to have multiple real training camp competitions on offense
I don't think the Steelers are going to be great on offense in 2024, but they're certainly going to be interesting from the first day of training camp onward. New offensive coordinator Arthur Smith had his foibles as Falcons coach, but his structure and scheme can be fun to watch if you're not looking at it from the perspective of fantasy football.
Smith's propensity for using his entire roster and the nature of what Pittsburgh did this offseason leave some interesting battles to be fought during preseason. There's going to be a lot up for grabs:
Who will start at quarterback? Russell Wilson heads into camp as the favorite, but Smith's offenses have worked best when he has had a mobile quarterback such as Ryan Tannehill and Marcus Mariota to help create numbers advantages in the run game. That would point more toward Justin Fields being the better option.
Will Najee Harris be the RB1? The 2021 first-round pick had his fifth-year option declined this offseason, and while he has surpassed 1,000 yards in three consecutive seasons, undrafted backup Jaylen Warren has been more efficient and explosive when inserted into the lineup. Warren carved out something close to a 50-50 split at times last season. Harris looked better at the end of the season when the Steelers ran more gap concepts after firing coordinator Matt Canada, but Smith's offense typically has been more zone-based. Cordarrelle Patterson is also on the roster and should figure into the rotation.
Will Roman Wilson start in two-wideout sets? The Steelers have a well-known track record when it comes to finding useful receivers in the middle rounds of the draft, and after moving on from Diontae Johnson and Allen Robinson this offseason, there's an opening in the starting lineup. Wilson, a rookie third-round pick, might profile best in the slot, but the competition for him to play regularly is against Van Jefferson and Quez Watkins.
Will Troy Fautanu be the opening-day starter at left tackle? Smith has been blessed with veteran left tackles during his playcalling career, as the Titans had Taylor Lewan (when healthy) and the Falcons ran out Jake Matthews. Now, he might have a rookie starting Week 1 on the blind side in Fautanu, whom some teams saw as a guard at the pro level. Dan Moore has been a below-average left tackle during his career, so the competition isn't overwhelming, but would Smith and the Steelers be ready to start Fautanu in Week 1? We'll find out in a few months.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans
The superlative: Team most likely to petition the NFL to play with a second football
You've probably heard the Texans are spoiled for choice with playmakers. This offseason, they brought back tight end Dalton Schultz on a multiyear deal, swapped out Devin Singletary for Joe Mixon at running back and traded a second-round pick to acquire Stefon Diggs, giving them arguably the league's best big three at wide receiver alongside Tank Dell and Nico Collins. With Noah Brown, Robert Woods and Ben Skowronek in reserve, the Texans are stacked at receiver.
What will that actually look like on the field, though? I wouldn't be surprised if one or more of the various Houston receivers failed to live up to fan expectations. That's not because of talent or subpar play, but simply because there's going to be only so many targets to go around.
Consider that Diggs was targeted on more than 29% of the routes he ran in a pass-heavy Buffalo offense last season. That ranked 11th in the league. Before his fibula injury in December, Dell was targeted on more than 26% of his routes, which ranked 30th. Collins was targeted on nearly 28% of his routes, which ranked 22nd, and that jumped north of 33% after Dell went down injured. That's without factoring in any targets for Schultz, Mixon or any other receivers.
On top of that, this wasn't a pass-heavy offense in 2023. The Texans were efficient throwing the ball, in part because they ran it at the seventh-highest rate on early downs in neutral game scripts, limiting the workload on rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. It seems likely coordinator Bobby Slowik will open up the passing game more often on early downs, but I'd be surprised if they turned into the Bills or Chiefs in terms of regularly topping 40 pass attempts per game.
On the field, this doesn't really matter. If the offense works and Houston is winning games, no Texans fan is going to care about how often each receiver is being targeted, nor should they. But with Collins and Diggs both in the final year of their respective contracts and expectations for each receiver sky-high, I'm not sure there's going to be the volume available for each of these standouts to produce what some might be hoping.
Indianapolis Colts
The superlative: Team most likely to tell the same story in a different way
The past few years of Colts football have, with one notable exception in 2022, run together. They have been a well-coached team that annually competes for the playoffs. They run back a roughly similar roster with some small tweaks. They mostly re-sign their own free agents; their most expensive signing from another franchise was Raekwon Davis on a two-year, $14 million pact. GM Chris Ballard loves to take high-ceiling chances in the draft, and 2024 is no exception: He spent a first-round pick on edge rusher Laiatu Latu and a second-rounder on talented receiver Adonai Mitchell. Same old Colts isn't a criticism, but a realistic observation.
The one change each of the past few years has been at quarterback. This season is no different given that we barely saw Anthony Richardson under center a year ago, as the rookie was sidelined by a season-ending shoulder injury after just 173 snaps. What we did see was promising; he wasn't great as a passer, but he wasn't as much of a project as some expected given his lack of experience. And he was extremely valuable as a runner, carrying the ball 25 times for 136 yards and four touchdowns across his four starts.
The Colts basically had to scrap the focus of their offense and offseason work after replacing the injured Richardson with Gardner Minshew. They would have to do the same thing, obviously, if Richardson is sidelined again and gives way to new backup Joe Flacco. The hope is we get to see Richardson and running back Jonathan Taylor on the field together regularly, something that happened for only two offensive snaps last season. Relying on an essentially new quarterback is old hat for Indianapolis, but if we see a full season of Richardson, its offense will look very different from what we saw from coach Shane Steichen & Co. for most of 2023.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The superlative: Team most likely to hand out $100 million in guarantees before the start of the season
GM Trent Baalke and the Jaguars already have handed out one huge contract this offseason, as they gave Josh Allen a five-year, $141 million deal to get their star edge rusher off the franchise tag in April. Coming off a 17.5-sack season that topped his sack numbers over the prior three years combined, the Jags understandably felt little choice but to hand him a massive contract extension.
The next move is to lock up another first-round pick. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence's 2023 season wasn't the breakout the team was hoping for after his white-hot end to the 2022 campaign, but there's seemingly little appetite for moving on from him. When a team has a quarterback it wants to build around, the best thing for cap purposes is usually to extend him after Year 3, when there are still four years of plausible runway between that quarterback and free agency (with the fourth year of his rookie deal, his fifth-year option and two potential franchise tags). Spreading that huge bonus over a five-year span and getting the guaranteed salaries on board earlier in the deal is usually the right way to go.
What will a Lawrence extension look like? Depends on which QB gets his deal done first. Last year, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow all signed contract extensions after becoming eligible. Burrow signed the latest and landed the largest deal; his five-year extension averaged $55 million per year. Adjust that for the growth in the cap between 2023 and 2024 and Lawrence could get $62.5 million per season. He hasn't been as productive or successful as Burrow, but that doesn't matter much with these young quarterback extensions.
Now that Jared Goff has signed a deal, Lawrence, Jordan Love and Dak Prescott are the most likely quarterbacks to sign extensions this summer. I would be surprised if any of their deals came in south of $60 million annually. Lawrence should land more than $150 million guaranteed at signing and be locked in as Jacksonville's starting quarterback through 2028.
On top of that, the Jags have to consider new deals with top cornerback Tyson Campbell and lead back Travis Etienne, both are whom are eligible for extensions. Campbell is a free agent after the season, which might make his extension the most pressing, but he's coming off a frustrating 2023 campaign. You could say the same thing about Lawrence, but after this team endured a decade of Blaine Gabbert and Blake Bortles, he shouldn't be going anywhere.
Tennessee Titans
The superlative: Team most likely to talk itself into its starting quarterback breaking out after a few preseason snaps
Last year, this might have been the Daniel Jones or Kenny Pickett superlative, given how those guys were slinging the ball around in camp with improved cores around them. Pickett went 13-of-15 for 199 yards and two touchdowns during the preseason and was inspiring whispers of MVP hype heading into his second season in Pittsburgh.
Obviously, it didn't work out for either player. My guess for the quarterback who gets that sort of hype after limited work in the preseason this year is Will Levis, who didn't show a lot in the snaps that mattered in 2023. He completed just 58.1% of his passes and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt while taking sacks on 9.9% of his dropbacks. Even those numbers were inflated some by garbage time; his 29.1 QBR (which is situation-adjusted) after taking over ranked 30th out of 33 qualifying passers. Only Tommy DeVito, Bailey Zappe and Trevor Siemian were worse.
Levis was basically a disaster when pressured. His 8.9 QBR ranked 28th, while his completion percentage over expected (CPOE) was minus-20.7%. Siemian was the only passer worse under pressure over the second half of the season, by CPOE. The rookie second-round pick had one bright spot -- his four-touchdown debut against the Falcons -- and was a mess afterward.
To be fair, I'm not sure many quarterbacks would have succeeded behind that Tennessee offensive line. It'll be easy to tell yourself a story that Levis will be way better in 2024, in part because his surroundings will actually be much improved. The Titans used a first-round pick on tackle JC Latham and signed center Lloyd Cushenberry and wide receivers Tyler Boyd and Calvin Ridley in free agency. They hired an offensive-minded coach in Brian Callahan and a legendary offensive line coach in Callahan's father, Bill, giving them a more accomplished offensive brain trust than the prior regime. All of that is going to help.
Of course, that's also what organizations need to fall in love with a player who wasn't very good the previous season. Levis' only competition for the starting job is Mason Rudolph, so Levis shouldn't have a short leash. I just wouldn't be shocked if the preseason expectations for him are raised in a small sample before a disappointing regular-season campaign.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
The superlative: Team most likely to be working the phones in August
The Broncos are on a roster roller coaster. After trading away years of draft capital to acquire quarterback Russell Wilson and coach Sean Payton and going on an offseason spending spree last year, the team's decision to move on from Wilson and start over with rookie Bo Nix leaves it in a difficult bind. Like the empty nesters who sold their house and downsized, the Broncos have too much stuff.
Obviously, Payton wants to surround Nix with talent, but teams typically want that talent to align with the time frame for their quarterback. At receiver, Payton inherited Courtland Sutton, traded up in the 2023 draft to take Marvin Mims and signed Josh Reynolds in free agency in March. Is there really a role for Tim Patrick, coming back after two years lost to injury? At running back, is Denver going to carry Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, Audric Estime and promising 2023 rookie Jaleel McLaughlin on its roster all season? What if Blake Watson breaks through in camp?
There are players who predated Payton's time with the organization who could be traded away, especially if they haven't shown much since he arrived, including cornerback Damarri Mathis and tight end Greg Dulcich. None of the players included here are going to attract enormous returns, but as the Broncos redraw themselves in Payton's image, they should be looking to try to recoup some much-needed draft capital for 2025 and beyond.
Kansas City Chiefs
The superlative: Least likely to throw the shortest passes in football again in 2024
Patrick Mahomes broke defensive coordinators and reinvented himself in the process. After he showed up as the Chiefs' starter in 2018 and lit up the league as the most devastating downfield passer of his generation, defensive minds around the NFL learned their only solution was to dare him to take easy completions and check down. After an uneven stretch of play in terms of turnovers in 2021, he adjusted in style.
With Tyreek Hill traded to the Dolphins and the various replacements the Chiefs acquired to take the star wideout's spot struggling to stay healthy or catch the ball, this has led to an absurd shift in Mahomes' style of play. After averaging 8.8 air yards per attempt in 2018, he averaged a league-low 6.2 air yards per throw last season. Imagine if Steph Curry emerged as the NBA's best scorer in the paint or Aaron Judge morphed into the league's best contact hitter. That's the sort of shift Mahomes has made to thrive.
While the Chiefs have won back-to-back Super Bowls, they've thrived despite lacking an imposing deep threat. That should change this season. They moved on from the inconsistent Marquez Valdes-Scantling and upgraded with former Ravens and Cardinals wideout Marquise Brown, who has had more frequent stretches of valuable play, albeit with a significant injury history. Then they used a first-round pick on wideout Xavier Worthy, who ran a record 4.21-second 40-yard dash at the combine.
Rashee Rice is expected to face league discipline after several off-field incidents this offseason, but even without considering the second-year wideout, the Chiefs have stocked up with speed at wide receiver. While they're not likely to turn back into their 2018 version, Mahomes has proved he doesn't need to be that player to thrive. After getting virtually nothing from his wide receivers a year ago, the future Hall of Famer might be able to push for his third MVP award if Brown and Worthy make an impact.
Las Vegas Raiders
The superlative: Most likely to have someone unexpected lead the team in rushing
The Raiders moved on from Josh Jacobs this offseason, which probably made sense given their needs elsewhere on the roster and the running back's struggles in 2023. I'm not sure they really landed a replacement for their former lead back, though. Let's consider the top candidates:
Zamir White is the incumbent after carrying the ball 104 times for 451 yards last season, most of which came during a four-game stint as the starter at the end of 2023. White posted modestly above-average rush yards over expectation (RYOE) numbers, especially in context compared to Jacobs, who was one of the league's worst backs by the same metric. Both White and Jacobs were dismal in terms of gaining first downs versus expectation. White should be considered the favorite, but he's also a 2022 fourth-round pick who was drafted by a regime that was fired in the middle of last season. That's not the sort of recipe that usually leads to a firm grip on a starting job. I'd like to see White get an opportunity to be the full-time back, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he ended up in a rotation by midseason.
Alexander Mattison had his chance to be the lead back in Minnesota after the team cut Dalvin Cook last year and did absolutely nothing to keep that opportunity. He struggled in short yardage, had issues with fumbles and showed little explosiveness. The only reason he kept his job for most of the season was injuries to the players around him, notably when Cam Akers tore an Achilles. Mattison eventually gave way to Ty Chandler. Cut by Minnesota and signed to a one-year, $2 million deal, Mattison could take over as the lead back in Vegas -- or could end up getting cut in camp.
If it's not one of those two, the backfield is up for grabs. Could Ameer Abdullah emerge after being limited to a third-down role under former coach Josh McDaniels? Is rookie sixth-round pick Dylan Laube really the next Danny Woodhead? Could the guy who ends up leading the Raiders in rushing yards be on a different roster right now? That might seem far-fetched, but who thought Kyren Williams and Zack Moss were going to lead their respective teams in rushing this time a year ago?
Los Angeles Chargers
The superlative: Team most likely to add a playmaker at the trade deadline
Three things I believe about the Chargers:
Jim Harbaugh is a transcendent coach. Remember what happened last time he entered the NFL? In 2011, he took over a 49ers team that hadn't posted a winning season in eight years whose quarterback (Alex Smith) had decided to leave town in disgust and frustration. Harbaugh took the Niners from 6-10 to 13-3 in one year. He was in the Super Bowl with a new quarterback (Colin Kaepernick) the following season. I'd argue he has a better quarterback this time around in Justin Herbert, and while he didn't bring defensive coordinator Vic Fangio along for the ride, Jesse Minter did wonders over the past two years under Harbaugh at Michigan.
The Chargers were better than they looked a year ago. They went 5-12 but had the point differential of a 7.1-win team, even with that 42-point blowout loss at the hands of the Raiders that ended the Brandon Staley era. They went 3-8 in one-score games, including narrow losses to the Cowboys, Dolphins, Lions, Packers and Bills. They parted ways with useful wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason, but Williams wasn't around for most of 2023, anyway. L.A.'s baseline level of play, even without Harbaugh, is better than you think.
Their schedule is very friendly to begin the season. Outside of a matchup with the Chiefs, they have a winnable first couple of months. They open with the Raiders and have a two-game road trip against the Panthers and Steelers. After the Kansas City game and a bye, they have road games against the Broncos and Cardinals before a home game against the Saints.
If the Chargers get off to a solid start in advance of a three-game homestand in November, I would argue they should be in the market for a playmaker. They added Ladd McConkey and DJ Chark at receiver, Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst at tight end and Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins at running back, but there might not be a No. 1 player at any of those respective positions in the mix.
I'm not sure Harbaugh would add a No. 1, but remember he took fliers on Mario Manningham, Anquan Boldin and even Randy Moss during his time in San Francisco. If second-year wideout Quentin Johnston is still struggling, would the Chargers make a run at wideout DeAndre Hopkins or a back such as Najee Harris if their respective teams are struggling? I wouldn't expect a big move in-season, but if the Chargers look as good as I expect, they should act accordingly ahead of the deadline on Nov. 5.