College football's last two coaching cycles had dramatically different rhythms.
The most recent carousel started slowly and went pedal-down after the national title game. There were only two changes before mid-November and both -- Northwestern (Pat Fitzgerald) and Michigan State (Mel Tucker) -- occurred because of off-field problems. Texas A&M's historically expensive firing of Jimbo Fisher made a splash, but the cycle seemed relatively uneventful until Alabama coach Nick Saban retired Jan. 10, setting off a flurry of movement. Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh's somewhat expected departure to the NFL -- followed by the Wolverines' expected promotion of offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore -- put an end to the activity.
The 2022 carousel, meanwhile, took a different path, defined by early firings. Six power conference coaches were let go before November, creating longer searches and several notable hires, including Colorado's Deion Sanders and Nebraska's Matt Rhule.
What's in store for 2024? The cycle could more closely resemble 2022, as there are more coaches squarely on hot seats who might not make it to November without strong starts to the season. Notable programs will be under the microscope, namely Florida, where Billy Napier must show tangible progress in Year 3, despite what looks like one of the nation's most taxing schedules. The SEC could be a hot spot for the upcoming carousel, as Arkansas' Sam Pittman and Vanderbilt's Clark Lea join Napier in needing to deliver strong results. And two seasons removed from guiding Baylor to a Big 12 championship and a No. 5 finish, Dave Aranda is facing job pressure.
Realignment certainly is a factor with the hot seat, as coaches who are struggling in new conferences are often in greater danger of being fired.
The early coaching hot seat list that follows is separated into three categories: coaches clearly on the hot seat, coaches whose situations are worth monitoring when the season begins, and potential retirement candidates.
Let's get started.
On the hot seat
Sam Pittman, Arkansas: Pittman made it to Year 5 despite a 4-8 record last fall that included just one SEC win. Anything resembling that mark will ensure a change in Fayetteville, where Pittman is 23-25 with a No. 21 AP finish in 2021. He will enter the fall with a new offensive coordinator, Bobby Petrino, the former Arkansas coach. Athletic director Hunter Yurachek hired Pittman and likes him, but probably needs to see a bowl appearance to move forward with the 62-year-old.
Dave Aranda, Baylor: When the 2021 coaching cycle took shape, Aranda was one of the hottest names in the market. He drew significant interest for multiple Pac-12 jobs, including USC, but opted to remain with Baylor following the Big 12 championship. Baylor has since gone 9-16, including a 3-9 mark last season that began with a home loss to Texas State and ended with five consecutive defeats. Athletic director Mack Rhoades retained Aranda, but Baylor will have new playcallers in Jake Spavital (offense) and Aranda (defense). Aranda likely needs six or seven wins to remain in Waco for 2025.
Billy Napier, Florida: The Gators' hire of Napier looked strong at the time, as they landed a coach who had been very selective about his first Power 5 job after a successful stint at Louisiana. But Napier is just 11-14 overall, 6-10 in the SEC, and has had challenges with on-field consistency, retaining and attracting top players, and maintaining a strong staff. Florida hasn't had a coach make it through Year 4 since Urban Meyer and might be hesitant about another quick change. The status of athletic director Scott Stricklin, who hired Napier, also should be monitored here. But if Napier can't navigate a brutal schedule -- Florida State, Miami and UCF in nonleague play, plus SEC trips to Texas and Tennessee and Georgia in Jacksonville -- it's hard to see him back in 2025.
Keep an eye on
Chip Kelly, UCLA: Kelly signed a contract extension through 2027 in March 2023, but has faced some job pressure. He is 25-13 the past three seasons but hasn't engineered the true breakthrough UCLA hoped for after his much-celebrated hire before the 2018 season. If UCLA had lost to Boise State in the LA Bowl, would the school have considered a change? Kelly, who turned 60 in November, leads the Bruins into the Big Ten this fall and might need an eight- or nine-win season to secure his position for 2025.
Clark Lea, Vanderbilt: Athletic director Candice Lee gave Lea a vote of confidence back in November, while noting the on-field product had to improve in Year 4. Lea, a Nashville native and former Vanderbilt fullback, is an ideal fit at the school, and left a prime coordinator gig with Notre Dame for one of the nation's toughest jobs. But he's 9-27 overall with just two wins in 24 SEC games. Vanderbilt has upgraded its investment in the program and will need to see at least minimal improvement, especially in SEC play, to stick with Lea.
Ryan Day, Ohio State: I'm not going to put a coach with a 56-8 overall record squarely on the hot seat. But after three straight losses to Michigan, no national championships, a new athletic director taking over (Ross Bjork) and Ohio State's all-in approach with personnel this winter, Day faces genuine pressure to win big in 2024. The scenarios are fascinating: What if he beats Michigan but loses early in the CFP? What if he loses to Michigan and makes a deep CFP run? A fourth straight loss to the Wolverines -- especially against a likely weakened Michigan team, and once again at Ohio Stadium -- would be difficult for Day to overcome, despite all of the clear accomplishments he has had with the Buckeyes.
Kalani Sitake, BYU: After some initial hesitancy, BYU awarded Sitake with contract extensions that ultimately took him through the 2027 season, a reward for a 21-4 stretch and consecutive AP top-20 finishes in 2020 and 2021. But BYU went 8-5 in 2022 and then 5-7 in its first season as a Big 12 member. Sitake is a popular BYU alum who has had only one other losing season, back in 2017 (4-9). But after dropping five straight games to end the 2023 season, he could use a strong start to quiet down any hot-seat talk.
Pat Narduzzi, Pitt: Narduzzi guided Pitt to an ACC title in 2021 and was bowl eligible in seven of his first eight seasons at the school. But last fall, the Panthers had their worst overall record (3-9) and ACC mark (2-6) under Narduzzi. His comments following a 58-7 loss to Notre Dame drew the ire of players, leading to an apology. Narduzzi is under contract through 2030 and not in imminent danger. But another clunker on the field could turn up the heat, especially if there are more self-generated controversies. Athletic director Heather Lyke did not hire Narduzzi.
Retirement watch
Mack Brown, North Carolina: Brown will turn 73 right before the season, which will be his sixth in his second stint at UNC and 16th overall at the school. If the Tar Heels had built on a 6-0 start last season and competed for or won the ACC, perhaps Brown would have exited his post already. A strong 2024 season would allow him to hand over the program in good shape, possibly to a clear-cut successor. Brown still has great energy, but it's hard to see him in the role much longer.
Kyle Whittingham, Utah: Whittingham has stated that he doesn't expect to be coaching past his 65th birthday, which he will celebrate Nov. 21. He already has cemented himself as the most significant coach in Utah history, winning two Pac-12 titles and a Mountain West title, and recording nine AP Top 25 finishes. Whittingham will lead Utah into the Big 12 this fall and would love to reach the CFP in his career. But he doesn't have anything left to prove and could see this season as a natural endpoint, especially with expected successor Morgan Scalley in place.
Kirk Ferentz, Iowa: Ferentz, entering his 26th season with Iowa, is college football's longest-tenured coach by six seasons, and will turn 69 on Aug. 1. He's in good health and likely can coach as long as he wants at Iowa, which in early 2022 extended his contract through the 2029 season. Iowa has been a steady winner but faces a tougher path to continued success in the expanded Big Ten. Ferentz went through an emotionally taxing 2023 season in which his son, Hawkeyes offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz, was fired. "Every job has got things that cause frustration, so this is kind of the way it is," Kirk Ferentz told ESPN in November. "And it's for you to determine where that line is and make the determination from there. I feel great. I love what I do. And more importantly, I love the people I'm around."
Group of 5
Hot seat: Will Hall, Southern Miss; Mike Houston, East Carolina; Stan Drayton, Temple; Mike Bloomgren, Rice
Keep an eye on: Mike MacIntyre, Florida International; Mike Neu, Ball State; Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech; Butch Jones, Arkansas State; Charles Huff, Marshall; Blake Anderson, Utah State; Shawn Clark, Appalachian State; Kenni Burns, Kent State
Possible retirement: Jim McElwain, Central Michigan; Jeff Tedford, Fresno State; Don Brown, UMass; K.C. Keeler, Sam Houston
The Group of 5 hot seat could end up lighter than it was a year ago, but the names in the first category certainly must deliver better results, especially those overseeing programs with solid traditions of success. The "keep an eye on" group includes several coaches who made bowl games last season, but likely need to repeat or exceed their performances to secure their positions for 2025. There's also a group of older coaches who could be considering retirement this season or soon thereafter.
Here's a look at some of the key situations.
Will Hall, Southern Miss: Hall seemingly had the perfect pedigree for Southern Miss, coming from a coaching family and making two head-coaching stops in Division II and several others around the South. But he has gone 3-9 in two of his three seasons, and likely must deliver a bowl appearance to reach Year 4 at Southern Miss, which has been a consistent bowl team since the late 1990s but doesn't want to fall further behind.
Mike Houston, East Carolina: After successful stretches in high school and college football's lower divisions, Houston seemed on his way to replicating the good results at ECU, which reached bowl games in 2021 and 2022. But the team cratered last fall, recording its worst record (2-10) in 20 years. ECU has a large, dedicated fan base and should be positioned to compete in the new-look AAC. Houston needs a rebound performance.
Stan Drayton, Temple: Although Temple might never be considered a Group of 5 power, the five coaches before Drayton each recorded at least one season of eight or more wins. Four of those coaches -- Al Golden (Miami), Steve Addazio (Boston College), Matt Rhule (Baylor) and Geoff Collins (Georgia Tech) -- vaulted into Power 5 jobs. Drayton is 6-18 with the Owls, winning just two of his first 16 AAC games. Although athletic director Arthur Johnson hired Drayton, the school will need to see some signs of progress this fall.
Mike Neu, Ball State: Life in the MAC isn't easy, even for those who have won the league, like Neu did in 2020. Neu is a former MVP quarterback in the MAC with Ball State, and took the Cardinals to consecutive bowl games in 2020 and 2021. But the team hasn't reached the postseason in his other six seasons as coach. Neu is 37-56 overall and has a relatively new boss in athletic director Jeff Mitchell. Another bowl-less season likely would lead to a change in Muncie.
Don Brown, UMass: Brown, who turns 69 in July, came back to his home state to elevate a program that made two FCS playoff appearances under his watch in 2006 and 2007. He also wanted to be closer to his family. So far, Brown's second stint as Minutemen coach has produced only four wins in 24 games. The team showed some improvement last fall but continues to fight so many baked-in challenges. If Brown can engineer a bit more progress, he might see 2024 as the right time to end a career that began in the late 1970s.