Independent of what happens Thursday nights, I'll drop this new column every Friday morning of the NFL season. I'll preview the upcoming slate of Sunday games with a focus on key matchups and how they affect bets you might take -- both totals and sides, as well as props.
I don't really go into any game looking for bets to make. But as I analyze how the Houston Texans attacked the Indianapolis Colts defense last year, I realize a big game for Nico Collins is likely in order. And as I look at Dak Prescott's history against Jim Schwartz defenses, I become more confident in a Week 1 upset for the Dallas Cowboys.
This column is less about "nine best bets for Week 1" and more about "some key players, performances and head-to-heads in Week 1." However, I still think the bets are pretty good, and we'll be tracking their performance as we go.
All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET.
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Texans-Colts | Cowboys-Browns | Jets-49ers | Quick hits and SGP
Houston Texans (-3, 48.5) at Indianapolis Colts
This divisional matchup delivered in 2023. In Week 2, Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson ripped off two long touchdown runs in two drives before exiting the game with an injury. Backup Gardner Minshew nursed the 14-point cushion to a 31-20 victory, but Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud shined with 384 yards and two touchdown passes despite heavy pressure.
In the Week 18 rematch, it was Stroud who delivered the early fireworks with a one-play, 75-yard opening touchdown drive; the deep ball to Collins still lives in my memory to this day.
LET IT FLY 🚀 pic.twitter.com/AFIdqfxJRx
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) January 7, 2024
My first look at this divisional matchup is centered on Collins, who dominated against Indianapolis last season: with seven catches on nine targets for 146 yards and a score in Week 2, then nine catches on nine targets for 195 yards and a score in Week 18.
While others are concerned that Collins' role and volume might be diminished with the trade acquisition of Stefon Diggs and the return of Tank Dell from injury as a rookie, I'm confident he'll continue to feast. Neither Dell (5-foot-8, 165 pounds) nor Diggs (6-foot, 194 pounds, 30 years old) is equipped to take Collins' role as the X receiver in this Bobby Slowik offense. Collins is 6-4, 223 pounds -- an enormous target over the middle of the field on deep, in-breaking routes and an absolute challenge to tackle in open space. Collins was third in the league in yards after catch over expectation last season with 204. Diggs had 30 and Dell had 12.
Collins was particularly effective against Indianapolis last season because of the coverages the Colts run. They were in zone coverage 68.6% of the time last season, the third-highest rate in the league. Defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, one of the longest-tenured defensive coaches in the NFL, has been running the Seattle Cover 3 for over a decade, and that sort of defense historically suffers against Shanahan-inspired offenses, like the one the Texans run. It particularly suffers against those deep, in-breaking routes that belong to Collins, not Dell or Diggs, in this offense. Last year against zone coverage, Collins was second in yards per route run leaguewide, behind only Tyreek Hill.
Even if the Colts want to adjust their defensive approach to account for Collins, I'm not sure they have the roster to do so. Second-year cornerback JuJu Brents missed the Week 2 game, but he was available in Week 18 and Collins had no issue against him. Brents and fellow sophomore Jaylon Jones are the starting corners for the Colts in Week 1, and neither can hold a candle to Collins off the line of scrimmage.
It's worth noting that, in general, Stroud was far better against zone than man coverage. So, if you're worried about Collins' target share getting carved by Dell and Diggs, you can just look at Stroud's passing props. At 274.5 yards (O/U -115), Stroud's passing line is the highest available in Week 1. The better edge belongs to Collins, who has so much explosive play potential that he will not need high volume to get over a line of 69.5.
The bet: Nico Collins OVER 69.5 receiving yards (Even)
Because of the advantage the Texans' offense has over this Colts defense, I lean toward Houston, even on the road as a 3-point favorite. But I'm more interested in taking the total on this game as opposed to the side. I like the over because of my belief in the Texans' passing game, as well as the faith I have in the Colts' offense under Richardson.
Preseason is wrongfully scaring some people off the Colts' second-year passer. He threw a pick-6 on a miscommunication with his tight end, and you would have thought the sky was falling in. Richardson will absolutely be an erratic thrower early in his career, but he'll pay it off with chunk gains in the air and on the ground, and offensive whiz kid Shane Steichen knows how to pull the easy RPO levers to protect Richardson from his worst self. Remember, we saw exactly two plays last season with Richardson and running back Jonathan Taylor sharing the field.
Even if Richardson is mistake-prone, he'll create short fields for the Texans that will lead to more points. But I think we'll see a run-heavy approach that minimizes Richardson's mistakes while also producing scoring drives. The Texans struggled against mobile quarterbacks last season, surrendering 51 rushing yards and a score to Kyler Murray, 44 and a score to Russell Wilson and another 38 to Lamar Jackson in Week 1, when he had five carries for 32 yards at the half before taking his foot off the gas. Richardson himself had 35 yards on three carries in just two drives before he was injured in Week 2.
I like the way this Colts offense matches up with the Texans defense, and specifically the way Steichen matches up with DeMeco Ryans. I expect fourth-down conversions, touchdown drives and plenty of big plays -- enough for us to get over a 48.5 total.
The bet: Texans-Colts OVER 48.5 (-115)
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 40.5)
There's always a couple of Week 1 lines that go heavily against my personal power rankings, and this is the big one. I would personally have the Cowboys favored on the road against Cleveland. This was the First Bet from earlier in the week, buying the half-point down to make it Cowboys +3, but I still like it at +2.5, and I like the Cowboys money line at +115.
The bet: Cowboys +2.5 (-105)
The Browns' defense last season was terrifying. So aggressive, so dominant. But Cleveland's defense looked anything but dominant when rookie QB C.J. Stroud shredded it in the postseason. Certain players and certain offenses will always have the advantage against the sort of defense that Jim Schwartz runs in Cleveland -- even for all the talent the Browns have.
Schwartz lives and dies by a four-man front. Long ago, he was the man who made the Wide-9 popular, and while he isn't lining up his defensive ends like race cars as much these days, he still plays extremely aggressive. His defensive linemen line up in one gap and penetrate upfield. His linebackers are fast to flow the moment they see color. He loads the box with enough bodies to fit the run and leaves his cornerbacks on islands. Nobody played more single-high coverage last year than the Browns. While they would mix up the man and zone coverage, they were almost always leaving that one post safety deep.
The problem is that Cowboys QB Prescott shredded single-high coverages in 2023. Ever an excellent processor, and with an elite one-on-one winner in CeeDee Lamb lined up outside, Prescott was first in EPA per dropback, success rate and raw QBR against single-high coverages. He was third in first down plus touchdown rate and fifth in explosive pass rate. He ate single-high teams alive.
Prescott saw Schwartz twice a year for much of his career, when Schwartz was the defensive coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles. In his eight games against Schwartz since entering the league, Prescott averages .10 EPA per dropback and a success rate of 44.3%, which would have both been top-5 marks against this Browns defense last year. Prescott got better against Schwartz over time, too; all of his best games came in the 2018 and 2019 seasons, the last time he faced a Schwartz-led defense.
Much like the Collins question above, we have to ask ourselves, if we trust the passing game here so much, should we look for a quarterback prop or a wide receiver prop? Just as Collins was so good last season against the Colts' defensive approach, so too was Lamb against the Browns' preferred style of play. Look at Lamb's splits last season against single-high coverages and two-high coverages.
There's also reason to be concerned about Prescott's dropbacks: the pass rush. Rookie left tackle Tyler Guyton will likely make his first career start Sunday, and Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett will be opposite him -- no biggie! Guyton isn't the only rookie, as third-rounder Cooper Beebe will start at center. If the Cowboys line can't handle the Browns' front on early downs, then Dallas will fall behind the sticks, and Guyton will need to hold his water against Garrett in clear passing situations. That's a scary proposition for Dallas.
As such, I lean towards taking a Lamb OVER here rather than a Prescott OVER, even though I think it's Prescott's excellence against Schwartz that will really drive the Cowboys' ship on Sunday. Both over bets are good looks.
The bet: CeeDee Lamb OVER 79.5 receiving yards (-125)
My primary look for this game will be on the side, not just for the Cowboys' nice matchup against the Browns defense, but for my concerns with the Browns offense.
Yes, Cleveland was 4-1 in the five games Deshaun Watson started and finished last season. But the Browns played a shell of Joe Burrow in Week 1, lost to Kenny Pickett (lost to Kenny Pickett?!?!) in Week 2, beat the later benched Ryan Tannehill in Week 3, beat Clayton Tune in Week 9 and then finally got a quality win against the Lamar Jackson-led Ravens in Week 10. Among 48 quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts last season, Watson was 33rd in success rate, 37th in EPA per dropback and a whopping 46th in on-target rate. Only PJ Walker and Taylor Heinicke were worse.
The Browns made a change at offensive coordinator in the offseason, replacing Alex Van Pelt with Ken Dorsey. Dorsey brings more of a shotgun and spread sensibility than Van Pelt ever did, which is clearly intended to help Watson, who played in a gun, RPO-based offense in 2019 and 2020 in Houston, when he was last successful at quarterback. The Browns dipped their toes into this water last season when Watson was healthy; the offense was herky-jerky, and the running game suffered. In fact, it was a return to Kevin Stefanski's Kubiak roots -- under center, play-action, deep bombs -- that helped Joe Flacco get the most out of Amari Cooper and David Njoku down the stretch last season.
But the Browns are pot committed on making the Watson trade and contract work on the field, so they're running Watson's preferred offense. However, it didn't work well last season, and I'm unconvinced it will work this season.
Running back Nick Chubb isn't available, leaving Jerome Ford as a serviceable but unspectacular replacement. Left tackle is up in the air, as last season's starter Jedrick Wills Jr. told reporters this week he won't start Week 1 (which means right tackle Jack Conklin might make the switch over to the left side). Jerry Jeudy was added to fill the WR2 void that Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman were unable to last season, but we're still banking on development from Jeudy, who has still never had more than 1,000 yards in a season.
Maybe everything coalesces for the Browns' offense. Maybe Watson is fully healthy and returns to his 2019-20 caliber of play. Maybe the offensive tackle carousel settles in nicely against Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and this ferocious Cowboys pass rush. Maybe Jeudy, Moore and Tillman can step up as Amari Cooper draws attention from Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs. But that feels like far too many maybes to trust in Week 1.
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, 43.5)
The much-anticipated and now long-awaited Aaron Rodgers' Jets return comes on "Monday Night Football" (8:20 p.m. ET on ESPN ABC ESPN+) and I think it will be a rather flat one. I'm fading Rodgers against this 49ers team.
The bet: Aaron Rodgers UNDER 224.5 passing yards (+115)
The 49ers' run defense was a major problem down the stretch last season. On designed rushes, the 49ers' defense was sixth worst by success rate and eighth worst by EPA per play allowed. That weakness didn't rear its ugly head often, as most teams were forced into passing scripts against the 49ers' formidable offense. But in Week 1 with a line of only 4.5 points, we can assume a relatively neutral script for the Jets.
I think the Jets will be doubly incentivized to run, given the injuries the 49ers have up front and the new additions on the Jets' offensive line. San Francisco is missing LB2 Dre Greenlaw, who starts the season on the PUP list. Defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos is week to week, defensive end Leonard Floyd is day to day and defensive end Drake Jackson is expected to miss the season. Arik Armstead was also released in the offseason. San Francisco's front seven is easily the weakest it has been, in terms of total talent level, in several seasons.
Meanwhile, the Jets beefed up their offensive line with Tyron Smith at left tackle, Morgan Moses at right tackle and John Simpson at left guard. With a 40-year-old quarterback in Rodgers returning from an Achilles injury, and probably the league's best offense on the other sideline, every note entering this game indicates it will be a run-heavy approach from the Jets. Breece Hall is booked for 69.5 rushing yards (+105) at ESPN BET, and I like that over.
I'm favoring Rodgers passing under 224.5 yards (+115) out of concern for a forced pass-heavy game script from Rodgers and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Rodgers is given a lot of control at the line of scrimmage, as many of the playcalls in this offense package a run play with a pass play. If Rodgers so chooses, he can take some volume out of Hall's game.
But I don't think Rodgers can push the ball downfield. Rodgers' completion percentage on downfield shots has gone down in each of 2021 and 2022, and his off-target rate climbed accordingly. This was before an Achilles injury that will likely sap some of his throw power and certainly limit his ability to scramble and extend plays. After sitting entire preseasons, as he did this year, Rodgers has also had some terrible season openers. And remember he's now 40 years old coming off major surgery.
Very curious how Aaron Rodgers performs week 1 not only bc he hasn't really played in 2 years but new system, teammates and for whatever reason he has been awful in season openers in three straight where there was a preseason (excludes 2020). He was awesome in the 2020 opener... pic.twitter.com/XUaFE7WyKu
— Clevta (@Clevta) August 30, 2024
I expect Rodgers' injury and age to force him into a quicker, dinkier-and-dunkier style of play. Rodgers has been hyperefficient in such an approach before, but that's a tall task against a 49ers' pass defense notorious for running, hitting and tackling reliably in space. It is made especially tall if Garrett Wilson, far and away the Jets' most dangerous pass catcher, gets special attention at the line of scrimmage from Charvarius Ward, the 49ers cornerback who was one of the best pressman corners in the league last season.
If the Jets must live on handoffs and short passes on offense, I expect a faster game script and low point totals. Given the talent on the Jets' defense and how they match up against the 49ers' offense, then, I do lean under in this game.
The bet: Jets-49ers under 43.5 (-110)
I did like this under a lot more when I thought Trent Williams might actually hold out, and I would like it a lot more if I thought Jets edge rusher Haason Reddick might actually play. But even with Williams in and Reddick (likely) out, I'm still expecting a low-scoring game. While the 49ers should be full-go on offense, it's worth noting that star running back Christian McCaffrey practiced for the first time in weeks on Wednesday as he returns from a calf injury. I'm not sold that he's 100%, nor that holdouts Brandon Aiyuk and Williams will also be up to conditioning speed for Week 1.
The absence of Reddick does loom on pass rush downs for the Jets, but their front against the 49ers rushing game remains a big advantage. Star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams will face a rookie starter in Dominick Puni at right guard, and C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams are the exact sort of linebacker pair you want battling George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk in the running game. Stopping Shanahan's offense has always started with stopping the running game, and the Jets are equipped to do this.
Most defenses are forced to play left-handed against the 49ers' offensive personnel, as San Francisco can play in 21 personnel (two backs, one tight end) and force opposing defenses into heavier personnel, then pass the football out of those traditional run looks. But with Mosley, Williams and the recently extended nickelback Michael Carter II filling out the second level, the Jets can line up in nickel against any 49ers look and still survive. Only the Las Vegas Raiders played a greater percentage of snaps last year in nickel than the Jets, and the Jets were the best nickel defense in yards per play surrendered. Being unaffected by the 49ers' unique personnel pressures was a big part of the success the Browns, Ravens and Vikings had against this offense last year, and the Jets are equipped to do the same.
Other looks and a same-game parlay (SGP)
Tennessee Titans RB Tony Pollard 15+ receiving yards (+120)
Sportsbooks are under the impression that there will be a run/pass split between Pollard and fellow RB Tyjae Spears, as Pollard's rushing props are set far higher than Spears, while Spears has a higher receiving line. This is a relic of the old split between Spears and Derrick Henry, as Spears had twice as many targets as Henry in 2023.
But this does not reflect how the coaching staff has discussed Pollard and Spears -- nor the fact that the entire offensive coaching staff is new, and has an accordingly fresh perspective on Spears' role. Head coach Brian Callahan has called Pollard and Spears "three-prong players" -- players who can run, catch and protect. But Pollard has been the 1A to Spears' 1B all offseason, both according to camp reports and in preseason games, as Pollard has gotten time with the first team before Spears has.
I expect Pollard to be on the field for plenty of early downs and plenty of passing downs against the Chicago Bears, who have been one of the friendliest defenses for pass catching backs to face over the past two seasons.
New England Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson 15+ receiving yards (+105)
Once again, I think the timeshare here is being misunderstood. The Patriots added RB Antonio Gibson in free agency on a decent deal, and he'll certainly get his passing-down looks in relief of Stevenson. But Stevenson got a big extension this offseason as well, and has clearly been the primary back with the first-team offense. Stevenson is a legit receiving back. He saw 88 targets in 2022, when he last played a full season, and was on pace for 72 last year until a Week 13 high ankle sprain ended his campaign.
The Patriots clearly are going to get both backs involved in the passing game. Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt reportedly told the team it wanted to be the best screen team in the league. The wide receiver room is new and inexperienced, which means nobody will be funneled targets early in the season. And poor pass protection will lead to some blocking reps for backs, sure, but it will also lead to more dump-offs.
If we get the negative game script projected by the line (the Cincinnati Bengals are more than a touchdown favorite), I think we'll see Stevenson rack up garbage time receiving production in the second half.
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions UNDER 51.5 (-105)
Of course, I don't want to take a Week 1 under for the first "Sunday Night Football" game of the 2024 NFL season, but you've got to do what you've got to do. Fifty-one is a key number in NFL totals, and now that I have the half-point, I'm willing to take it.
While these teams boast excellent offenses, they both rely heavily on running the football. The Rams were fifth last season in called runs over expectation, by NGS's numbers and the Lions were 11th. In last year's 24-23 wild-card contest won by Detroit, the Rams actually called their most pass-heavy game of the season. But that was for a few specific reasons. Star RB Kyren Williams got hurt midgame, the Lions cornerbacks were notoriously beatable and, hey, it was the postseason.
Considering the renewed investment in the offensive line, as well as the absence of tackle Alaric Jackson (suspension), I expect the Rams to run the football heavily and avoid the Lions' improved cornerback room. I think the clock will run fast, the drives will be long, and so long as I got a couple of red zone stops from both defenses, we should keep this total below the number.
SGP: Green Bay Packers money line, Luke Musgrave OVER 24.5 receiving yards and Jalen Hurts UNDER 39.5 rushing yards (+475)
There are a few bets I really like for this game, which all stand well individually but can be parlayed as well.
My power rankings have the Packers as the better team on a neutral field. Even if the Eagles' defense totally rebounds from its collapse down the stretch last season, I have my doubts that the new offense will be perfectly installed in Week 1. Hurts, with no preseason reps, in an offense that is 95% new, featuring tons more motions and formations and concepts than the super-simple offense of seasons past? I'm expecting hiccups. Meanwhile, Jordan Love should get just about anything he wants over the middle of the field against a starting linebacker duo of Nakobe Dean and Zack Baun.
Speaking of the middle of the field, I'm big on Musgrave this season, and I think he gets off to a hot start in Week 1. The Packers are very banged up at tight end, so I don't think Musgrave will be in much of a timeshare on Friday. I prefer receiving yards to receptions because of Musgrave's speed. He's more liable for a big play than a high-volume game.
On the other side of the ball, while the new Eagles' offense will still use Hurts as a designed runner on traditional down-and-distances, it will likely do so less than the previous system. And while the new offense will still use Hurts as a "Tush Push" cheat code on fourth-and-short situations, I expect the famous play to be used less frequently (and less effectively) in the absence of Jason Kelce. In short, I'm fading Hurts' rushing yards early.