Left-hander Blake Snell took the mound on May 31 in Miami last season with one win over his first 10 starts and an unsightly 5.04 ERA. Fantasy investors, quite obviously, were not pleased and many moved on. Snell had walked four-plus hitters in half of those outings and, while he had more strikeouts than innings pitched, a 1.60 WHIP does damage. Sure, Snell had won 21 games and the 2018 AL Cy Young Award with the Rays, but it had been a roller coaster of inconsistent fantasy numbers and low volume even since for the Rays and Padres.
Everything changed after that final day of May last season and Snell, who had permitted 28 earned runs over his first 10 starts, allowed only 17 earned runs over his next and final 22 outings. That is a ridiculous 1.18 ERA (2.70 FIP) with 180 strikeouts over 130 innings, one of the finest extended runs of pitching in the game's history. Snell finished with a 2.25 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and his second Cy Young Award, the seventh pitcher to win honors in both leagues.
As of this writing, Snell remains a free agent, as he and noted agent Scott Boras patiently wait for precisely the right contract offer. Perhaps everything works out for them. Fantasy managers should have a strong plan, too. It should include letting someone else deal with this worrisome situation. Snell would likely have led this "Do Not Draft" list even if he had remained on the Padres, or if employed by another organization months ago and leading a rotation.
Give Snell complete credit for a historic four-month run of excellence but, even as we assume he finds expensive work somewhere, there are reasons for concern moving forward. Snell was immensely fortunate last season, as he led the major leagues in both walks and walk rate, posting an 84.9% strand rate -- one of the highest marks on record. Snell's overall 2.25 ERA hardly resembles his 3.43 FIP and 3.62 xFIP. He claims his hot streak started when he lowered usage on his slider, relying more on his curveball and changeup. It worked then, but it may not now.
Snell has qualified for the league's ERA title in only two of his eight MLB seasons, with injuries playing a part, but mainly it is about his wild inefficiency, and that is not changing. Snell made 27 starts for the 2021 Padres, but amassed only 128⅔ innings, or fewer than five innings per outing. It is hard to earn wins that way. After winning 21 games in 2018, Snell won 25 games in 85 starts over the next four years entering 2023. There is a concerning track record here, and an awesome four-month stretch of 2023 cannot erase it.
Now we can add the fact that Snell, because he has yet to find a new organization, will not be ready to pitch in early April. In addition, he will work with new catchers, coaches and defense, adding to the list of question marks, and this is already a player not likely to match his 2023 statistics. Snell has been a worthy fantasy selection in two out of eight seasons, but ESPN fantasy investors have made him one of the first 20 starting pitchers and 50 players in average live drafts. Good luck!
This annual "Do Not Draft" list comes with the extra important caveat about value in comparison with statistical expectations, mine in this case. Snell in Round 5 or 6 is dangerous. Ten rounds later, Snell is obviously worth the risk. ESPN's base fantasy format is points leagues over roto, but these are my general thoughts on player valuation versus ESPN ADP (points).
Tyler Glasnow, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: Glasnow started 21 games for last season's Rays and they were mostly terrific starts. Nobody denies Glasnow is immensely talented. Durability, however, is not one of his strengths. He is 30 and his 120 IP last season represented a career high. The Dodgers employ a crew of starters they can and will be patient with, including RHP Walker Buehler (going in Round 16), LHP Clayton Kershaw and RHP Dustin May. Glasnow was barely a top-50 fantasy starter last season (points), so even with the team change, he should not go in the fourth round this season.
Will Smith, C, Los Angeles Dodgers: Not picking on the Dodgers at all, but there is little reason, in ESPN one-catcher leagues, to select a backstop in Round 5. Smith scored 336 fantasy points last season, tied for 70th among hitters. Part of the issue is that catchers do not play every day. Smith appeared in 126 games. Do not overdraft catching when there are better fantasy providers (like Manny Machado and Freddy Peralta) going later in drafts and, to be frank, similar producing backstops going much later as well. I usually wait until the final round(s) to invest in catcher in ESPN standard formats.
Camilo Doval, RP, San Francisco Giants: The first closer off the board always appears on this list and oddly enough, Doval leads pure relievers in drafts, going in Round 6. There is little wrong with Doval and this is hardly an indictment of him, but this is just premature for even the top closers, when so many strong hitters (even for ESPN's shallow formats) remain available. Doval is preferred over the likes of Paul Sewald, Evan Phillips and Ryan Helsley, but he's not 10 rounds better.
Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels: This future Hall of Famer has finally slipped from the ranks of the first few rounds, but Round 7 remains too early for him based on his numbers. Trout played in only 82 games last season and he has missed more than half of Angels games over the past three years. He hit a pedestrian .263 with a career-high 28.7% strikeout rate in 2023, and he has attempted only seven stolen bases over four years, so this is not just about the missed games. It is production, too. Trout, 32, is neither going to get more durable in his 30s nor return to MVP levels offensively. Name value continues to statistically overvalue him.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., OF, Miami Marlins: It is tempting to view Chisholm as a potential 30-HR, 30-SB option, but he has played in only 157 games over the past two seasons combined thanks to myriad injuries, and there is little reason to expect improvement in his troubling walk and strikeout rates. Stolen bases are more valuable in roto formats, but here we have a flawed, brittle player -- and Round 19 might still be too generous. Twins DH Byron Buxton, barely going in the top 250, finally misses this list because, well, there are no bad last-round selections, but Chisholm is following a similar path.
Esteury Ruiz, OF, Oakland Athletics: Ruiz stole 67 bases in his first full MLB season, second only to the great Ronald Acuna Jr., but the comparisons end there. Ruiz offers little power, rarely walks, and his playing time is in jeopardy as soon as a promising center fielder is ready to play regularly and push him aside. Ruiz finished tied for 60th among outfielders in fantasy points last season, thanks to the stolen bases, and he is better suited as free agent fodder in points formats. Things are clearly different in roto formats, but even then, be careful.
Max Scherzer, SP, Texas Rangers: We come full circle to the only other active pitcher to earn Cy Young awards in both the NL and AL. Scherzer underwent surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back in December and the defending World Series champions are hopeful he pitches by the All-Star break. Do you want to wait half the season for a 39-year-old pitcher coming off a 3.77 ERA? Sure, we are allotted several designated IL spots post-draft, but still, it is tough to recommend Scherzer and other pitchers who, at this writing, are expected to miss considerable time (if not all of the season) in 2024: Kyle Bradish, Lucas Giolito, Nick Lodolo, Shane Baz, Matt Brash, Jacob deGrom, Kershaw.