Leon Edwards will defend his welterweight championship against Colby Covington in the main event of two-title-fight UFC 296 on Saturday in Las Vegas (ESPN+ PPV main card at 10 p.m. ET, prelims on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. and early prelims on ESPN+ at 6 p.m.).
The other title bout at T-Mobile Arena features Alexandre Pantoja making the first defense of his flyweight belt against Brandon Royval.
Edwards (21-3, 1 NC) is unbeaten in his last 12 fights. The No. 4 fighter in ESPN's pound-for-pound rankings, Edwards last fought in March, beating former champ Kamaru Usman by majority decision.
Covington (17-3), who will be making his third title challenge after twice being unsuccessful against Usman, has not fought since beating Jorge Masvidal by unanimous decision in March 2022.
Pantoja (26-5) beat Brandon Moreno by split decision in July to win the title. He is No. 1 in the ESPN men's flyweight rankings. The seventh-ranked Royval (15-6) has won three in a row since a second-round submission loss to Pantoja in 2021.
ESPN's Marc Raimondi spoke to UFC welterweight Belal Muhammad, who is serving as a backup this weekend in case either main event fighter drops out, to get his perspective on the welterweight title fight and former two-time men's flyweight champion Brandon Moreno to get his thoughts on the co-main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the title fights and other intriguing bets they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Welterweight championship: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington
Belal Muhammad, UFC welterweight
How Edwards wins: A lot of movement. Edwards has to take the center and avoid getting pushed to the cage. Don't get lazy with takedown defense. Even if he gets taken down, he can't get frustrated. Don't let Colby get momentum. And the way Leon is, as we saw in the first fight with Usman, he was getting tired and started quitting on himself. He needs to go out there and start fast. Covington has been out almost two years, so put the gas on him immediately with striking. Colby has terrible striking, so Edwards must go out there and start throwing hard kicks and punches at him. He can't get backed up to the fence because that's where Covington wants to take him down.
How Covington wins: If I'm Colby, I'm pushing him to the fence right away. Gog straight at Edwards and make him uncomfortable. Make him tired. Covington can keep a fast pace for a long time. With his striking, he does just enough to get his opponent's hands up, and then he shoots for the takedown -- 10 times. I don't see Covington finishing Edwards, but I could see him doing the same thing he did to Masvidal: make him mad. Edwards is a kicker, so Covington must close the distance immediately and stay in his face. Edwards can't kick him from in close. I'd want to get Leon to the fence, keep him there, and keep punching him to build up points. And then, in the fourth and fifth rounds, watch him mentally break.
X-factor: Can Covington be the same guy after the layoff? If he goes out there and looks awful, it will be a bad night for him. If that ring rust kicks in, I could see Edwards outpointing him with kicks from distance.
Prediction: If he's the same fighter he was before the layoff, I think Covington goes in there and dominates Edwards. I think he's going to take Edwards down and break him. I doubt Leon is going to be ready for that pace. I don't think people go back to his third fight with Usman and say, "Oh, he defended his takedowns." Usman just looked worse in that fight. It wasn't Edwards looking better. Edwards isn't mentally prepared to push as hard as he needs to against Covington. He doesn't have the cardio to do it.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Covington to win (+140), over 4.5 rounds (-185). Regardless of the storyline about this being Covington's third, and likely last, chance to win a title, the matchup is still a worthy headliner. It pits the finesse and power of Edwards against the relentless pressure of Covington. Each round could see Covington scoring more often while Edwards scores more decisively. In a five-rounder, the final scorecards could be all over the place.
Volume and control time strongly favor Covington. His only two recent losses came in unsuccessful title shots against Usman, in which Covington failed to land a single takedown. In other fights, especially against dangerous strikers, Covington frequently took the fight to the mat, often racking up over 10 minutes of control time. If he can do that here, he could edge enough rounds to get a decision. At plus money on what looks like a coin flip, I'll take a stab at the underdog and the over.
Parker: Edwards to win (-170). Can Edwards stop Covington's takedowns and continuous pace throughout five rounds? I believe the answer is yes. In his first fight against Usman, Edwards struggled to defend against takedowns, but that was due to the striking threat of Usman. When wrestlers aren't able to disguise their takedown entries with striking, they become too predictable, making it easier to stop the takedown. Edwards will not be worried about Covington's boxing or power. Look for Edwards to utilize calf and body kicks early to set up a high kick later in the fight, like he did against Usman. If Covington can't turn this into a wrestling match for five rounds, he will fail to taste UFC championship gold again.
Men's flyweight championship: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval
Brandon Moreno, former two-time UFC men's flyweight champion
How Pantoja wins: He's very tough. In the last fight, I connected on him with everything -- elbows, punches, hooks and uppercuts. Everything. And he never gave up. So, Royval has to respect that from Pantoja.
How Royval wins: I hear a lot of people tell me, "I don't think Royval can beat Pantoja." However, Royval is very dangerous. He's a southpaw, but he changes stance and he's unorthodox. He's very long and has good distance control, which he should use.
X-factor: Fight IQ. Royval fights recklessly sometimes, and he gets himself in trouble in the fight when he doesn't need to. If he can control his mind and be smart in the middle of the fight, he definitely can win.
Prediction: I see Pantoja winning the fight. But it won't be a surprise for me if Royval wins.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Royval to win (+165). Pantoja welcomes a barnburner, but Royval's power is rare among flyweights. The larger challenger shows up well on paper in striking stats, so if this does turn into a striking duel, I like Royval's chances as the more dangerous hitter.
Pantoja has superior striking accuracy but poor defense. We haven't seen a lot of fight minutes from Royval, due to him finishing his opponents quickly and getting submitted in his losses. Hopefully, he's learned from the losses -- especially his loss to Pantoja that ended on the mat -- and he has improved his takedown defense. If he keeps the fight standing, he is a reasonable upset pick.
Parker: Pantoja to win (-195). Royval is dangerous everywhere, and fans love him for his kill-or-be-killed style. Only one fight in his UFC career has gone the distance, so don't expect this fight to last very long. But as dangerous as Royval is, Pantoja is the better fighter. As we saw in the first fight, Royval gets overconfident in his grappling and careless with his positioning. In other fights, he has been able to maneuver out, but against Pantoja, if he makes one mistake, it's over. I believe that's exactly what is going to happen here. If Royval doesn't land that KO shot in Round 1, Pantoja will work his grappling throughout the fight and eventually find the submission.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Men's featherweight: Josh Emmett vs. Bryce Mitchell
Parker: Emmett to win (+190), over 2.5 rounds (-200). With Mitchell taking this fight on short notice, I am surprised at how big of an underdog Emmett is in this matchup of different styles. We all know Mitchell is a great grappler and can control position for an entire round. However, we saw in his loss to Ilia Topuria that if he can't make the fight his own, he can get exposed on the feet.
Emmett is a good wrestler, but we don't see it often as he is in love with striking and his power. This fight will likely go bell to bell, so taking the fight to go the distance makes a lot of sense. However, I don't mind rolling the dice on Emmett here. He is the much better striker with plenty of power. If he can keep it standing, the fight can favor him.
Women's bantamweight: Irene Aldana vs. Karol Rosa
Parker: Aldana to win (-190). Aldana is coming off arguably one of the worst performances in championship history, but stylistically, this is a fight that favors her. She will be the better striker and grappler as long as she can avoid being held against the cage on her back by Rosa. Look for Aldana to return to her roots and strike from afar. If she can dictate the fight takes place and not get lazy with her takedown defense or striking output, she should be able to cruise to a decision win here.
Women's flyweight: Casey O'Neill vs. Ariane Lipski
Kuhn: Lipski to win (+165). Looking for an upset? Consider Lipski, who has nearly twice the Octagon experience as O'Neill, and has the power and poise to make O'Neill pay for utilizing such a frenzied pace of standup. Lipski is competent on both levels, with above-average power and a good submission game. She may concede youth and range, but the "Queen of Violence" is a nice underdog play.
Welterweight: Randy Brown vs. Muslim Salikhov
Kuhn: Brown to win (-275). This fight will see one of the biggest reach differentials in recent history, with Brown boasting an eight-inch advantage over Salikhov. That reach has worked well for Brown, as he has the best head strike defense of anyone on the card. He also uses his reach to apply pressure, while Salikhov is typically a hesitant striker by volume. These dynamics should mean Brown will lead the dance as long as it's on the feet. He'll also land more often, winning exchanges on volume. Pushing 40, Salikhov can't eat strikes from long range for long. He's more likely to try for takedowns, but Brown's defense mitigates that risk. There's a lot to like about Brown, even though we'll pay a high price.