Throughout the college season, UCLA's Lonzo Ball and Washington's Markelle Fultz competed for the honor of top prospect in the 2017 NBA draft. And the two rank far ahead of the next-best player in my annual draft projections.
So who is No. 1, Ball or Fultz? And how do the other top prospects fare? Let's take a look.
My projections estimate the number of WARP (wins above replacement player) that each player will average during his first five seasons in the NBA, based on two components.
The first takes translated college or international performance and adds in age to get a stats-only projection. In the list below, players are ranked by their consensus projection, which incorporates a second component -- where players rank on Chad Ford's big board -- to capture the scouting consensus about them for improved historical accuracy.
(Read more on the process and see past projections here.)
1. Lonzo Ball
UCLA
Point Guard
Big Board: No. 2
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 4.1 WARP
Part of the challenge in evaluating Ball is how unusual his skill set is, not just for an elite prospect, but overall.
Every other collegiate player in Ford's top 100 has at least one player in my projection database with a similarity score of 90 or higher. Ball's best match (Kyrie Irving, of all people) is an 87.6. Ball's best comparison is probably Jason Kidd, who played long before the advanced stats era and is not in my database.
2. Markelle Fultz
Washington
Point Guard
Big Board: No. 1
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 3.3 WARP
While his stats-only projection certainly isn't a negative, Fultz rates at the level of a typical No. 2 pick, even when we account for his spot atop Ford's big board.
Over the 11 drafts for which I have full projections, dating to 2006, No. 2 picks have averaged a 3.3 consensus WARP projection.
3. Jonathan Isaac
Florida State
Forward
Big Board: No. 6
Stats: No. 2
Consensus:2.5 WARP
The big question about Isaac, and the one place where he ranks among the bottom 25 percent of NBA-bound combo forwards, is his ability to create his own shot. He used just 20.3 percent of Florida State's plays as a secondary option behind older prospect Dwayne Bacon.
Get past that, and there's a lot to like about Isaac. He has strong steal and block rates, shot an excellent 59.3 percent on 2-pointers and flashed 3-point range (31-of-89, 34.8 percent).
4. Dennis Smith
North Carolina State
Point Guard
Big Board: No. 8
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
Smith's production was remarkably similar to Fultz's, and his projected player win percentage as a rookie (the per-minute component of WARP, akin to PER) is actually slightly better. Fultz's stats-only WARP projection is still higher because he's six months younger, he has superior size and teams might be concerned about the ACL tear Smith suffered in high school.
Nonetheless, there's a strong case to be made that Smith will slip too far on draft night.
5. Zach Collins
Gonzaga
Center
Big Board: No. 9
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
Despite coming off the bench on a deep, experienced Gonzaga team that lost in the national championship game, Collins rated as the best Zag on a per-minute basis.
He's a high-percentage finisher with good touch at the free throw line. The limited need for traditional bigs hurts Collins, but he's skilled enough that he might be able to play both frontcourt spots in the pros.
6. Josh Jackson
Kansas
Small forward
Big Board: No. 3
Stats: No. 34
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
Jackson has good steal and block rates and is an excellent playmaker for a wing. So why doesn't he project better? Inefficiency is a major culprit.
He's projected for a .494 true shooting percentage as a rookie (league average last season was .552), and those assists come with extra turnovers for a wing. Additionally, Jackson is older than many sophomores, let alone other freshman prospects.
7. OG Anunoby
Indiana
Forward
Big Board: No. 13
Stats: No. 7
Consensus:1.8 WARP
A team willing to draft Anunoby despite the torn ACL that prematurely ended his career at Indiana might get a steal.
Anunoby is the only prospect in this year's draft projected for better than 2.0 steals per 100 plays and 2.0 blocks per 100 opponent 2-point attempts. Historically, several wings who met that criteria have outperformed their draft slot. The group features Robert Covington, Danny Granger, Josh Howard and Andre Roberson, but also includes nonentities Renaldo Balkman, Branden Dawson and Chris Singleton.
8. Jayson Tatum
Duke
Small forward
Big Board: No. 4
Stats: No. 28
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Tatum is statistically the most generic prospect possible.
He doesn't project in the top or bottom 25 percent of NBA-bound small forwards in any of the 10 categories I use to determine strengths and weaknesses, making him the only college prospect in this year's draft for whom that is true.
9. Lauri Markkanen
Arizona
Power forward
Big Board: No. 10
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
Markkanen is Tatum's opposite in terms of strengths and weaknesses.
He's the only player in my top 20 with at least four statistical weaknesses (rebound, assist, steal and block percentages) yet still has a solid projection because his three strengths (shooting, turnover rate and foul rate) are so good.
10. De'Aaron Fox
Kentucky
Point guard
Big Board: No. 5
Stats: No. 38
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Because of the regression factor, Fox's poor 3-point shooting isn't a big factor in his low statistical projection, per se. (He's projected to make 30.4 percent of his 3s as a rookie.).
Rather, it's Fox's limited 3-point attempts that are more of an issue; he's projected to take 2-pointers on 63.4 percent of the plays he finishes with a shot, trip to the free throw line or turnover. Among perimeter players in Ford's top 100, only Kentucky teammate Isaiah Briscoe has a higher 2-point attempt rate, and it's hard to score efficiently that way.
11. John Collins
Wake Forest
Power forward
Big Board: No. 16
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
A high-percentage post scorer who projects as one of the most efficient players in the draft, Collins has shown enough accuracy from the free throw line (projected 72 percent as a rookie) to suggest he can be a midrange threat in the pros.
He'll probably need to add that shot, because he's unlikely to protect the rim well enough to primarily play center.
12. Tony Bradley
North Carolina
Center
Big Board: No. 22
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Similar to Collins, Bradley played well enough in limited minutes to project as a top prospect. (My projections don't specifically consider minutes played, though low-minutes players will have their stats regressed more to positional averages.)
Bradley projects as the best offensive rebounder in the draft and the best since Kenneth Faried was drafted in 2011.
13. Frank Ntilikina
Strasbourg
Point guard
Big Board: No. 11
Stats: No. 23
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Playing limited minutes in the French Pro A league, Ntilikina hasn't performed particularly well this season. He projects this high largely because of how his performance is regressed to the mean, as well as his youth:
UCLA's Ike Anigbogu is the only younger player in Ford's top 30.
14. Malik Monk
Kentucky
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 7
Stats: No. 32
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Naturally, despite his 3-point shooting being regressed to the mean, Monk projects as a better offensive player than his former backcourt-mate Fox. That's particularly true if you believe Monk can handle combo-guard duties, improving his assist rate.
However, Monk rates in the bottom 25 percent of shooting guards in terms of rebounding and steal rate, and that weak defense hampers his projection.
15. Monte Morris
Iowa State
Point guard
Big Board: No. 36
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
The highest-rated player ranked outside Ford's top 30, Morris projects with a winning percentage (.478) near league average (.500, naturally) thanks to his sure-handed play.
His projected turnover rate (10.6 percent of his plays) is third-lowest among players in my database listed as point guards, tied with Malcolm Brogdon of the Milwaukee Bucks.
16. Josh Hart
Villanova
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 37
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
One of the most productive players in college basketball as a senior, Hart has no statistical weaknesses, and he has strengths in terms of 2-point percentage and shooting.
Hart projects to a 3-and-D role in the NBA, and indeed his second-best comp is Danny Green. (Of course, his best comp is MarShon Brooks. The draft is hard.)
17. Ike Anigbogu
UCLA
Center
Big Board: No. 19
Stats: No. 22
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
The youngest college prospect in the draft, Anigbogu won't turn 19 until just before opening night of the 2017-18 season.
Playing off the bench at UCLA, he flashed high-percentage finishing, strong offensive rebounding and capable shot blocking.
18. Donovan Mitchell
Louisville
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 15
Stats: No. 25
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
A couple of factors work against Mitchell's statistical projection.
He was better as a sophomore than as a freshman, and my projections weight earlier years more heavily because they've historically been a better predictor of NBA performance. Additionally, I have Mitchell projected as a pure shooting guard. If he's able to handle minutes at point guard, his stats-only projection would jump into the top 20.
19. Justin Patton
Creighton
Center
Big Board: No. 21
Stats: No. 21
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
After bursting on the scene as a redshirt freshman, Patton ranked in the top 10 at midseason but saw his performance fade as Creighton moved into conference play and lost starting point guard Maurice Watson to a torn ACL.
Patton was shooting 72.7 percent when Watson was injured and regressed to 61.5 percent the remainder of the season.
20. Luke Kennard
Duke
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 14
Stats: No. 31
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
One of the better shooters in the draft, Kennard was largely a nonfactor defensively in terms of box-score statistics.
His steal rate (1.2 per 100 plays) in particular is poor for a shooting guard, which has often been an indicator of NBA disappointment.
21. Tyler Lydon
Syracuse
Power forward
Big Board: No. 33
Stats: No. 17
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
A year ago, Lydon would have rated somewhat higher on the strength of his fine freshman campaign. He slipped slightly as a sophomore but still brings an intriguing mix of floor spacing and rim protection.
No player in my database had ever been projected to block more than 2.5 percent of opponents' 2-point attempts and shoot 3s on at least 30 percent of the plays he uses. Both Lydon and Vanderbilt's Luke Kornet, a possible second-round pick, qualify this year.
22. Alec Peters
Valparaiso
Forward
Big Board: No. 39
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
If Peters can find a position to defend in the NBA -- he played primarily in the paint against Horizon League opponents but might not be strong enough on the glass to do so against pro competition -- he should be a dangerous offensive threat.
By virtue of a large sample and his accuracy, Peters' projected 37.9 percent shooting from 3-point range next season is second to SMU's Sterling Brown (38.8 percent) among players in Ford's top 100.
23. TJ Leaf
UCLA
Power forward
Big Board: No. 20
Stats: No. 26
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
Leaf's projection suffers because his 64.4 percent 2-point shooting gets regressed heavily to the mean. That might be fair, given Leaf had ideal floor spacing around him and Ball setting him up.
Leaf will probably need to be an efficient scorer to succeed in the NBA, because he's a relatively weak defender and rebounder for a 4.
24. Harry Giles
Duke
Power forward
Big Board: No. 12
Stats: No. 42
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
Perhaps the most challenging player to evaluate in this year's draft, Giles looks like a marginal prospect based on his performance in his one season at Duke.
However, he was coming back from a second ACL tear, and my research has suggested that players do struggle initially after returning from ACL injuries before settling in. So Giles' statistics might undersell his NBA potential.
25. Jarrett Allen
Texas
Center
Big Board: No. 18
Stats: No. 35
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
Allen has ideal physical tools to be a rim runner and rim protector in the NBA, but he wasn't particularly productive during his lone season at Texas.
His block rate ranked in the bottom quarter of NBA-bound centers and his defensive rebounding was also below average.
26. Jeremy Morgan
Northern Iowa
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 83
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
The single biggest sleeper in my projections, Morgan just recently cracked Ford's top 100. He stands out primarily for his strong rates of steals (2.4 per 100 team plays) and blocks (1.6 percent of opponents' 2-point attempts).
Added together, that's the fifth-highest projection for any guard in my database, trailing Gary Payton II, Marcus Smart, Briante Weber and Delon Wright.
27. Aleksandar Vezenkov
FC Barcelona
Small forward
Big Board: No. 87
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 0.8 WARP
Automatically eligible for the draft because he'll turn 22 later this year, Vezenkov's star has faded as a prospect even though he's a productive player for a quality team.
Vezenkov has shot an incredible 69.4 percent on 2-point attempts in ACB play and projects as a capable role player in the Mindaugas Kuzminskas mold, with room to improve from there.
28. Derrick Walton Jr.
Michigan
Point guard
Big Board: No. 68
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 0.7 WARP
A late bloomer, Walton developed dramatically as an upperclassman and was one of the nation's best point guards as a senior. He projects as a 3-point threat off the dribble -- making 27 of 68 such attempts at Michigan for 40.9 percent accuracy, per Synergy Sports tracking -- something that's crucial for modern point guards.
At the same time, Walton will need to make 3s to score efficiently, because he's projected to shoot a dismal 37.8 percent inside the arc.
29. Anzejs Pasecniks
Gran Canaria
Center
Big Board: No. 26
Stats: No. 33
Consensus: 0.7 WARP
A high-percentage finisher, Latvian native Pasecniks made 66.2 percent of his 2-point attempts against ACB competition as a 21-year-old.
Middling block and defensive rebound rates, however, might limit Pasceniks to a reserve role in the NBA.
30. Thomas Bryant
Indiana
Center
Big Board: No. 50
Stats: No. 18
Consensus: 0.7 WARP
Anticipating the possibility of needing to play on the perimeter as a pro, Bryant made 23 3-pointers at a 38.3 percent clip as a sophomore. At the same time, his 2-point accuracy slipped from an excellent 70.7 percent as a freshman to 55.6 percent.
Because Bryant is only an average shot-blocker and a poor defensive rebounder, he has to score efficiently to have value in the NBA.
Full 2017 NBA draft rankings
Note: Due to insufficient statistical data, I do not have projections for three top-100 prospects: Nedim Buza (No. 98), Terrance Ferguson (No. 17) and Isaiah Hartenstein (No. 29).