What can statistical analysis tell us about the 2019 NBA draft? With Thursday's draft (7 p.m. ET on ESPN) just days away, it's time to cram if you've been too busy following the NBA Finals and free-agency rumors to prepare.
Statistics can help us answer some of the big questions about the draft, including the top prospects available in terms of performance to date, the value of draft picks and the reason to be cautious when drafting a center.
Let's try to answer these questions and more ahead of the draft.
What's the value of a draft pick in trades?
In addition to what's perceived -- and bears out statistically -- as a weak top of the draft, one reason teams may find it difficult to trade high picks for veterans is that first-round picks are no longer quite as valuable as they were a couple of seasons ago.
This is the final year of the new NBA collective bargaining agreement gradually increasing scaled contracts for first-round picks to reflect the dramatic growth in the salary cap. Here's a look at what the No. 1 overall pick was paid as a rookie as a percentage of the salary cap dating back to 2012.
Even though the cap jumped by approximately 50% from 2014-15 to 2016-17, the preset salary for the No. 1 pick increased less than 10%, making top picks more beneficial in terms of the production they created above and beyond their salary. After the gradual 15% increases in the scale, which is now tied to the salary cap to prevent this kind of disconnect, the projected salary for this year's No. 1 pick is similar relative to the cap to where it was from 2012-13 through 2014-15.
As for the relative value of draft picks, I've updated my trade value chart for them to better account for second-round contracts. This substantially devalues picks in the back half of the second round, as reflected by their tendency to be used on more marginal prospects who will agree to two-way contracts.
As always, this chart doesn't correspond to how teams actually value picks -- as they tend to pay a premium to trade up -- but how much picks have been worth historically in terms of net value above and beyond salary, including a possible second contract for the player. Think of it more like the Chase Stuart chart for valuing NFL draft picks rather than the Jimmy Johnson chart teams historically have used when making trades.
Additionally, the trade value chart reflects the general strength of the draft and not the specific quality of each year's prospects.
What's the value of a center in the draft?
Ahead of last year's draft, I raised questions about the number of centers who would be drafted in the top 10. Depending on how you categorize Marvin Bagley III and Jaren Jackson Jr., who can play both frontcourt spots but played primarily at power forward as rookies, as many as five of the top seven picks were centers.
The results from last season only served to reinforce my concerns that centers are less valuable in the draft than perimeter players because of the ease of finding effective big men. After all, despite the number of bigs drafted in the top seven, the two most valuable rookies were the two perimeter players in that group: No. 3 overall pick Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks and No. 5 pick Trae Young of the Atlanta Hawks.
Additionally, while Deandre Ayton, Bagley and Jackson were productive as rookies, so too was New York Knicks center Mitchell Robinson -- drafted 36th overall. Robinson continues a trend of teams finding valuable centers late in the draft, including All-NBA first-team pick Nikola Jokic (No. 41), All-NBA third-team pick Rudy Gobert (No. 27) and Clint Capela of the Houston Rockets (No. 25).
While no center prospect in this year's draft has the shot-creation skills of Ayton and Bagley or the all-around versatility of Jackson and Wendell Carter Jr., teams seem to be rethinking their valuation of centers to some extent. Jaxson Hayes from Texas is the only center in the top 16 picks of my colleague Jonathan Givony's most recent mock draft. And teams might actually be undervaluing Oregon center Bol Bol, a top-10 prospect in my stats-based projections despite the way I devalued them last year.
How do international prospects project statistically?
Because most overseas pro teams play longer seasons than the NCAA schedule, the first two incarnations of my draft board have not included international prospects. I now have statistical projections for six players ranked in our top 100 who played at least 250 minutes between leagues for which I have translations (EuroLeague, EuroCup, the Adriatic League, the Spanish ACB, the French Pro A, the Israeli BSL and the Australian NBL).
Most notable of this group is French forward Sekou Doumbouya, who comes in third in my consensus projections with 2.3 projected wins above replacement player (WARP) per year -- just ahead of Duke forward RJ Barrett and behind the likely top two picks, Duke's Zion Williamson and Murray State's Ja Morant.
Age is a major factor in Doumbouya's favor. He started the 2018-19 season at age 17 and won't turn 19 until Dec. 23, making him about the youngest possible draft prospect under the current eligibility rules. (International players must turn 19 in the year of the draft.) Given that fact, it's impressive Doumbouya was so competitive in eight EuroCup games, making 73% of his 2-point attempts.
Doumbouya must improve his 3-point shooting (32% across French and EuroCup play) and has been a poor rebounder for someone who teams hope will eventually be capable of playing both forward positions. Those weaknesses are surely why Doumbouya's projection is not nearly as impressive in the ESPN Analytics draft model. They also may be factoring in Doumbouya's weak 2017-18 performance in the French second division, which isn't part of my projection. Still, in a draft with no certainties outside the top two, Doumbouya deserves a long look.
The other international prospect ranked in our top 20 is center Goga Bitadze from the Republic of Georgia. Bitadze has been a dominant shot-blocker, swatting better than 10% of opponent 2-point attempts in both EuroLeague and Adriatic play. His projection is held back by the high standard for centers. In that context, Bitadze's efficiency was actually subpar, so he ranks outside the top 30 in my consensus projections.
Croatian forward Luka Samanic, ranked No. 28, looks like a strong offensive prospect. He made 60% of his 2-point attempts in Adriatic play and projects as an above-average playmaker for a power forward. However, Samanic's poor rebound, block and steal rates hamper his projection, and he's outside the top 60 in my stats-only model. Two other possible second-round picks, one-time Louisville commit Brian Bowen (who played in Australia) and Israeli small forward Yovel Zoosman, also rank in the 60s. The last top-100 international prospect for whom I have a projection, French guard Adam Mokoka, projects as a sub-replacement NBA contributor.
Who are my top prospects by stats and scouting?
Including the aforementioned international players, here are my full projections for this year's draft, including all players with projections in our top 100 and unranked players projected better than replacement level in the NBA.