With three years of data on the NFL draft class of 2015, it's time to look back at which picks we would keep and which ones should have been changed, using the benefit of hindsight, PFF grades and our new PFF value system, which adds another layer to our already-unique play-by-play grading.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Actual pick: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
New Pick: Winston
Despite his three-game suspension to start the 2018 season, the first pick of the draft remains the same; Winston has been the most valuable player in the 2015 draft class to this point. He has been a volatile quarterback during his time with the Bucs, last season ranking second in percentage of positively graded throws, but also ranking 35th at avoiding turnover-worthy throws. That formula suggests Winston is capable of carrying a team to wins, but also can throw games away; and he profiles very similarly to Carson Palmer and Cam Newton, two quarterbacks who showed that they can piece together MVP-like seasons, as they both did in 2015.
2. Tennessee Titans
Actual pick: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
New Pick: Mariota
Tennessee sticks with their pick, as well, and despite the poor 2017 statistics, Mariota was PFF's No. 12-graded quarterback at 83.9 last season. The difference from stats to grade suggests that Mariota was not helped by his playmakers, and the data backs that up. He had the highest percentage of big-time throws that fell incomplete last year (due to his receiver) and despite ranking third in the NFL with 15 interceptions, Mariota ranked eighth at avoiding turnover-worthy plays, showing that he had some of the worst interception luck in the NFL.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
Actual pick: Dante Fowler Jr., edge rusher, Florida
New Pick: Vic Beasley Jr., edge rusher, Clemson
At the time, the Jacksonville pass rush was a major question mark, and while Fowler finally tapped into his potential last season, Beasley has been a step above during their time in the NFL. And while he was not as good as his 16-sack 2016 season appeared on paper, Beasley still has the explosion and pass-rush set to get after the quarterback, with his 141 career pressures good for 30th in the NFL since 2015. Beasley's peaks are better than those of any other pass-rusher in the league, so we're banking on getting the most out of him in Jacksonville's attacking scheme.
4. Oakland Raiders
Actual pick: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
New Pick: Stefon Diggs, WR, Maryland
Cooper has certainly had his moments with the Raiders, but he has been terribly inconsistent, especially with his 33 drops over the past three years. Diggs is an outstanding route runner, and he's excellent at the catch point, all adding up to a passer rating of 120.4 when targeted last season, second best in the NFL. He has graded at 88.4 over the past three years, best in the draft class and 10th best among receivers during that time.
5. Washington Redskins
Actual pick: Brandon Scherff, G, Iowa
New Pick: Landon Collins, S, Alabama
It's always risky to take a guard in the top-10, and while Scherff has been a solid player, his value is lacking when compared to an all-around defensive playmaker such as Collins. After a difficult rookie season, Collins has been outstanding over the past two years, leading all safeties with 86 stops (plays resulting in an offensive failure).
6. New York Jets
Actual pick: Leonard Williams, interior DL, USC
New Pick: Williams
Williams was viewed as one of the safer picks in the 2015 draft, and he has lived up to that reputation. He is strong in the run game, and he has been good as a pass-rusher (15 sacks, 47 QB hits, 92 hurries on 1,524 rushes) while playing 80 percent of the Jets' snaps in his three years.
7. Chicago Bears
Actual pick: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
New Pick: Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
White has been limited to just 239 snaps over the past three years, while Peters has established himself as one of the best playmaking corners in the league. His aggressive style will lead to a few big plays, but Peters' ability to create turnovers and make plays on the ball has been unmatched since he has entered the league (21 interceptions and 34 pass breakups on 321 targets).
8. Atlanta Falcons
Actual pick: Vic Beasley Jr., edge rusher, Clemson
New Pick: Trey Flowers, edge rusher, Arkansas
With Beasley now off the board, the Falcons turn to the next-best pass-rusher in the class in Flowers. Flowers was a fourth-rounder back in 2015, but PFF grades pointed to a first-round player, and he hasn't disappointed with grades of 80.9 and 87.8 (14th among edge defenders) over the past two years after a redshirt 2015 season.
9. New York Giants
Actual pick: Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
New Pick: Todd Gurley II, RB, Georgia
Flowers has had his struggles, particularly in pass protection, and there is no other tackle worthy of the No. 9 pick. Gurley has had his ups and downs, but at his best, he can affect the game as a runner and as a receiver, and his presence in the Giants' backfield would have eased the burden on QB Eli Manning over the past three years. Gurley was the top-graded running back in the league last year at 92.0 overall.
10. St. Louis/Los Angeles Rams
Actual pick: Todd Gurley II, RB, Georgia
New Pick: David Johnson, RB, Northern Iowa
Now that Gurley is off the board, the Rams take Johnson, who provides a similar impact, particularly in the passing game. Johnson's 92.6 grade as a receiver in 2016 was the best in the league, and when healthy, he has become one of the NFL's best all-around running backs.
11. Minnesota Vikings
Actual pick: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
New Pick: Byron Jones, CB, UConn
Waynes has been solid, but his value has been more in line with a second-round player. Jones has played mostly safety, though he has brought great value to Dallas' back seven, due to his ability to match up with difficult tight ends and in the slot, where his 0.60 yards per cover snap ranked third in the NFL last season. Jones is moving back to cornerback this season to further increase that value and hopefully avoid some of the blown coverages that have marred his otherwise excellent work when playing man coverage.
12. Cleveland Browns
Actual pick: Danny Shelton, interior DL, Washington
New Pick: Grady Jarrett, interior DL, Clemson
Shelton has been a strong run defender, but Cleveland shipped him off to New England after he underwhelmed as a pass-rusher. Jarrett had a first-round grade from PFF coming out of college, and he has lived up to that billing as a disruptive interior presence for the Falcons. He ranked 14th among interior defensive linemen last year with an 87.1 overall grade.
13. New Orleans Saints
Actual pick: Andrus Peat, G, Stanford
New Pick: Adrian Amos, S, Penn State
Amos broke out with the No. 2 grade among safeties last year (92.0), and the Saints have been piecing together their secondary over the past few years. He would be a perfect piece in that rebuild, as he has quietly been the 10th most valuable player in the class of 2015.
14. Miami Dolphins
Actual pick: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
New Pick: Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
Another running back comes off the board as Gordon fills a need for the Dolphins. He has been more consistent than Gurley, grading at 83.0 and 83.8 overall in each of the past two years. Last season, Gordon ranked second in the league with 48 missed tackles forced in the running game.
15. San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers
Actual pick: Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
New Pick: Jordan Hicks, LB, Texas
Now that Gordon is off the board, the Chargers add one of the most underrated players from the class of 2015 in Hicks. The linebacker has battled injuries, but when on the field, he has been outstanding in coverage, breaking up four passes, picking off seven and allowing a passer rating of only 71.3 into his coverage in his career (most linebackers allow 95.0-plus).
16. Houston Texans
Actual pick: Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
New Pick: Ronald Darby, CB, Florida State
Houston filled a need with the addition of Johnson, but hindsight shows that Darby would have been a cleaner pick. Darby has improved his ability to make plays on the ball (24 pass breakups on 262 career targets) since entering the league, and his speed and athleticism allow him to stay with the shiftiest of route runners.
17. San Francisco 49ers
Actual pick: Arik Armstead, interior DL, Oregon
New Pick: Danielle Hunter, edge rusher, LSU
The 49ers were playing an old-school 3-4 defense at the time, but Hunter would fit in nicely as a rushing outside linebacker. He has been strong in the run game for the Vikings while producing as a pass-rusher, with 27 sacks, 19 QB hits and 114 hurries on only 1,260 career attempts.
18. Kansas City Chiefs
Actual pick: Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
New Pick: Danny Shelton, interior DL, Washington
Despite Shelton already having been traded, he has been a productive player, and his presence in the middle of the Kansas City defense would help the Chiefs' leaky run defense. He graded at 85.2 in 2016 and 81.5 last year, with most of his production coming in the run game.
19. Cleveland Browns
Actual pick: Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
New Pick: Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington
Erving has struggled mightily (his best season grade is only 42.0), while Thompson has had his ups and downs, and his athleticism brings great flexibility to the back seven of any defense. Thompson has good range in the zone and the ability to match up against running backs in one-on-one coverage, and the Browns are still looking for more impact coverage players three years later. Thompson also has been excellent in the run game, ranking eighth in the NFL, with the lowest average depth of tackle since 2015 at 2.44.
20. Philadelphia Eagles
Actual pick: WR Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
New Pick: Agholor
After a slow start, Agholor started to live up to his potential last season, finding a home in the slot. He graded at 80.4, and he led the league with eight touchdowns when lined up in the slot, while ranking third with 752 yards last season.
21. Cincinnati Bengals
Actual pick: Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M
New Pick: Frank Clark, edge rusher, Michigan
Like the other top offensive tackles in this draft class, Ogbuehi has struggled in his three years. Clark had off-field issues, but putting those aside, he has been one of the best all-around edge defenders in the class. Cincinnati is just now starting to fix their edge-rush issues, but Clark would have been a great addition at the time, notching 26 sacks, 19 QB hits and 103 hurries on 1,207 career rushes.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers
Actual pick: Bud Dupree, edge rusher, Kentucky
New Pick: Malcom Brown, interior DL, Texas
While Dupree's 15 career sacks don't scream "bust," he has been one of the worst pass-rushers in the league on a per-snap basis since 2015, as he has only 68 other pressures on 946 career rushes. Brown is a cleaner player and a good fit for Pittsburgh's three-man front, as he can line up in multiple roles and stand firm against the run, having graded above 80.0 in each of the past three seasons.
23. Denver Broncos
Actual pick: Shane Ray, edge rusher, Missouri
New Pick: Duke Johnson Jr., RB, Miami
Ray has had his moments, though he has been banged up and inconsistent even when healthy. Johnson has been one of the most valuable players in the class, as he is a dynamic receiving weapon out of the backfield, grading at 90.9 as a receiver last season, good for second in the league.
24. Arizona Cardinals
Actual pick: D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
New Pick: Ali Marpet, C/G, Hobart
Humphries has continued the trend of struggling offensive tackles, while Marpet has been excellent playing various roles for the Bucs. Marpet made the transition nicely from small school to the NFL, and he has been one of the best offensive linemen in the class, with grades of 84.9 in 2016 and 79.0 last year.
25. Carolina Panthers
Actual pick: Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington
New Pick: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
The Panthers are still looking for receivers, and Parker's size and contested-catch skills are a nice fit for QB Cam Newton. Parker hasn't lived up to the big hype coming out of Louisville, but he's still a top-32 player in this class -- with his best year coming in 2016, when he posted an 81.1 overall grade.
26. Baltimore Ravens
Actual pick: Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF
New Pick: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
It's difficult to slot Cooper this low in the first round, as his peaks have been of top-10 quality, but the fluctuations in production combined with more drops than any receiver in the league since 2015 make him less of a slam dunk than he seemed at the time. Still, he would bring great value to a Ravens offense that has had one of the worst group of playmakers in the league over the past few years. Cooper has converted 121 first downs in his career, 46 more than the next-closest Ravens receiver during that time (Mike Wallace).
27. Dallas Cowboys
Actual pick: Byron Jones, CB, UConn
New Pick: Daryl Williams, OT, Oklahoma
Jones is off the board, and the Cowboys are feeling good about their offensive line, but Williams adds great depth and an eventual replacement for Doug Free at right tackle. Williams took a few years to get going, but he had a breakout 2017 season, grading at 86.5 overall and earning first-team right tackle honors at PFF.
28. Detroit Lions
Actual pick: Laken Tomlinson, G, Duke
New Pick: Brandon Scherff, G, Iowa
Scherff might not have been good value in the top 10, but he is a nice pick here for the Lions, who already have given up on Tomlinson. Scherff has improved every year, grading at 78.6 in 2015, 81.7 in 2016 and 83.2 last season.
29. Indianapolis Colts
Actual pick: Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami
New Pick: Tyler Lockett, WR, Kansas State
Dorsett was a risky pick at the time, as the Colts were banking on his deep speed to add a new downfield element to their offense. It never panned out. But Lockett had the top PFF grade among receivers the year he came out, and he has the third-highest grade among receivers in the draft class in their three years. Lockett has only eight drops on 149 catchable targets in his career.
30. Green Bay Packers
Actual pick: Damarious Randall, CB/S, Arizona State
New Pick: David Irving, interior DL, Iowa
Irving has quietly been one of the best players in the class of 2015, and he has created pressure from the interior at a high rate. He would have been a good fit for the Packers' 3-4 scheme at the time, as he has 80 career pressures on only 734 rushes.
31. New Orleans Saints
Actual pick: Stephone Anthony, LB, Clemson
New Pick: Benardrick McKinney, LB, Mississippi State
McKinney looked like a run-stuffing thumper coming out, and he has been that and a bit more for the Texans. The Saints continue to search for impact linebackers, as Anthony struggled mightily and others have come and gone with little success. McKinney can play the run (his 82.0 grade ranks 13th in the NFL since 2015) and hold his own in coverage, if you can limit his one-on-one interactions with running backs.
32. New England Patriots
Actual pick: Malcom Brown, interior DL, Texas
New Pick: Jamison Crowder, WR, Duke
With Brown off the board, the Patriots take one of the best slot receivers in the class in Crowder. New England can certainly find a way to get him involved in its offense, despite having good receiver depth over the past few years. Crowder ranked 10th with 535 yards from the slot last season.