NFL Week 18 buzz, upsets, coaching hot seats, MVP picks

Fowler: Yeah, had Hill hit the 2,000-yard threshold, the conversation would have intensified. But Hill feels more like a front-runner for Offensive Player of the Year, along with McCaffrey. I'd probably give the slight edge to Hill because he missed six quarters of play due to an ankle injury and is still set to surpass 1,800 receiving yards.

The most important player in Week 18 is ...

Graziano: Trevor Lawrence. Will the Jaguars quarterback play Sunday? And if he does play, how healthy will he be coming off the shoulder injury? Lawrence is kind of like the Black Knight from "Monty Python and the Holy Grail," who keeps coming at you even after you cut off one arm, then the other arm, then a leg, etc. He seems to pick up a fresh injury every week, but -- with the rare exception of last week -- manages to play through basically all of it.

The Jaguars will win the AFC South if they beat the Titans on Sunday in Nashville, but if they lose, they could be out of the playoffs entirely. It'd be a pretty remarkable fall for a team that was 8-3 at one point and seemed to be cruising with little pressure from the rest of the division. Lawrence has to deliver a big game here.

Fowler: Jordan Love. Talk about a chance to punctuate the Packers' post-Rodgers plans. Beat Chicago in Week 18, and Green Bay is in the playoffs. Love's knack for the end zone -- he has three touchdown passes in three of his past six games -- makes the Packers dangerous if they can get into a wild-card spot. They are loaded with young receivers and tight ends, and running back Aaron Jones looks explosive again. If the defense can just play passable football, Green Bay can make a run. Love is setting himself up nicely for a contract extension this offseason, and a playoff berth would only bolster his case for big money.

Graziano: Yeah, that's a solid call. I think Love is really counting on the Packers doing right by him with the extension, since he did them a massive favor with the bizarre deal he did in May. But he's with the right organization if he's counting on them doing the right thing. I doubt they'll just make him play for $6 million. It is really impressive the way he and his young group of pass-catchers have jelled as the season has gone on. The Packers need to fix their defense heading into 2024, but they do seem to have worked their plan at QB the way they expected. Hats off to them.

I'll throw Hill in as one of this weekend's most important players. The Dolphins are super banged-up ahead of what equates to the AFC East title game against Buffalo. If they're going to win it without Bradley Chubb, Xavien Howard and Jaylen Waddle, they're going to need some superhero performances. Hill is the kind of guy who can deliver one.

Fowler: Hill is a great choice. And speaking of Bills-Dolphins, Allen carries considerable weight. At least Hill and Miami are guaranteed to make the playoffs. Allen's Bills could win the AFC East or be out of the playoffs altogether within hours. If the Bills lose, and the Steelers and Jaguars win, Buffalo misses the postseason despite riding a four-game winning streak into Week 18. And the Bills would probably be my pick to win it all if they get in! They're peaking at the right time. It's a big if, and one that hinges on Allen's play in crucial moments Sunday.

What's your top upset pick for Week 18?

Fowler: Chiefs (+3) over Chargers. Kansas City is locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed, and history says coach Andy Reid could rest starters. But the Chargers are losers of seven of their past eight and have several star players injured. I'm not discounting Kansas City getting the win with a few backups inserted. Plus, the Chiefs desperately need to regain offensive rhythm and could use this game to find it.

Graziano: Dolphins (+3) over Bills. No, I am not comfortable with Miami's health situation at all. And yes, I'm aware the Bills have won four games in a row and in some ways look like a dangerous team heating up at the right time. But they've also kind of squeaked out wins the past couple of weeks against bad teams, and it's not like they don't have their own health issues on defense. The game's in Miami, and I'm taking the Dolphins to make a strong last stand to hold off Buffalo and win the division.

What else are you hearing this week?

Graziano's notebook:

• We talk a lot about the coach openings, but there are also currently GM openings with the Raiders and Chargers, and there will be one in New England if the Pats move on from Belichick. Washington could also make front office changes and be looking for a new GM, and there are other possible spots to watch.

Some of the names I'm hearing most commonly from NFL people as potential candidates to get GM interviews, be it now or in the near future, include: 49ers assistant GM Adam Peters (who could stay put and get the GM title in San Francisco following John Lynch's promotion to president of football operations), Bears assistant GM Ian Cunningham, Ravens director of player personnel Joe Hortiz, Seahawks assistant GM Nolan Teasley, Colts assistant GM Ed Dodds, Browns assistant GM Catherine Raiche, Eagles assistant GM Alec Halaby, Eagles VP of football administration Jake Rosenberg and Chiefs assistant GM Mike Borgonzi, among others.

There are some who think teams might try to lure VP of player personnel Will McClay away from the Cowboys, but no one has succeeded in doing that yet. Plus, Dallas values McClay highly and likely would spend big to keep him. (He can just never hope to have the GM title, because team owner Jerry Jones holds that title and very much likes doing the job.) I also should note here that Raiders interim GM Champ Kelly should be a strong candidate to keep that job or at least draw interest and interviews from other teams.

Fowler's notebook:

• The fallout from the Russell Wilson benching in Denver will continue to bubble, largely because of the financial implications this offseason. Here's a scenario that many teams have pondered: Once presumably released before the fifth day of the new league year, Wilson could sign somewhere for the veteran minimum, effectively sticking Denver with all but $1 million of a $39 million bill of guarantees baked into 2024. Perhaps interest from several teams or the chance at a multiyear deal changes the equation, but the $39 million offsets from what he signs with a new club. And as several league execs pointed out to me, Wilson won't command anything close to that $39 million from a new team, so it might not matter much what he actually signs for when he finds a new franchise. Plus, agreeing to a low salary would help his new team build the roster around him.

It all matters to Denver, of course. That's why another scenario could come into play. The Broncos could offer a trade to prospective teams on a sliding scale of draft compensation. For example, if Team X agrees to pay $25 million of the $39 million, the Broncos would perhaps throw in multiple midround picks. It's like a larger-scale Brock Osweiler trade.

After a messy exit, would Wilson -- who has a no-trade clause and the chance to be a free agent for the first time in his career -- be inclined to help the Broncos by approving a deal? I've talked to several people who believe he likely wouldn't do Denver any favors. As for fits, teams see Atlanta as an ideal one for Wilson, along with possibly Pittsburgh or New England.

• The possibility of the Chargers and Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh being a fit has gained steam in league circles. At the very least, Los Angeles has interest and has done some preliminary homework. Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is expected to be a prime candidate here, too. Harbaugh has been dedicated to the College Football Playoff and doesn't intend to entertain any job discussions until after the championship game against Washington.