September Saturdays are in the books.
After a month of football, Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State enter October as early front-runners to finish in the College Football Playoff top four. All three have wins against respectable nonconference opponents and those wins will continue to give them some wiggle room as conference play gets more difficult.
But they aren't the only ones to emerge. As many as 18 teams across four tiers are competing for the four playoff spots.
Teams now have an entire month to build their résumés before the first CFP ranking is revealed Nov. 1, but a playoff pecking order has begun. Here's a look at those four tiers, from the clear-cut top three to a group of one-loss teams that can still make a run. What are their toughest remaining tests and what will the committee be looking for?
TIER 1: The clear front-runners
Georgia (4-0)
Saturday result: Georgia 39, Kent State 22
Best September win: Georgia 49, Oregon 3
Toughest test ahead: Nov. 5 vs. Tennessee. This game has upset potential, given how improved the Vols have looked, further evidenced by the win Saturday against Florida.
What the selection committee will consider: Undefeated Georgia is in. One-loss SEC champ Georgia is in. One-loss Georgia that loses to Bama in the SEC championship game is probably in (again). But what happens if Georgia slips up and loses to Tennessee or Kentucky and doesn't win the East? Here's where it gets interesting, and what happened Saturday (ugly win against Kent State, plus Tennessee win), opens the door to at least consider the debate. If Georgia doesn't win the East, it won't have an opportunity to face Alabama -- which could be a problem. Wins against Florida, Mississippi State, Oregon and Kentucky or the Vols would have to be enough.
They might be, especially if the Bulldogs look as spectacular as they did in the first three weeks. The selection committee also factors in common opponents, and both Alabama and Georgia face Tennessee in October. What if Bama beats the Vols by a field goal, and Georgia wins by two touchdowns? It would at least help the committee compare Georgia with Bama without them facing each other. The nonconference schedule is where Georgia gets the most help, though, and differs from Michigan. If neither of those teams wins their conference and they're in a battle for No. 4, Georgia would have an edge in strength of schedule -- especially if Oregon goes on to contend for the Pac-12. Until proven otherwise, though, the defending national champs remain the team to beat.
Alabama (4-0)
Saturday result: Alabama 55, Vanderbilt 3
Best September win: Alabama 20, Texas 19
Toughest test ahead: Nov. 12 at Ole Miss. It's a road trip against Lane Kiffin, another former Nick Saban assistant in the SEC West, and the only game ESPN's FPI gives the Tide less than a 70% chance to win (69%).
What the selection committee will consider: Undefeated Alabama is in. One-loss SEC champ Bama is in. One-loss Alabama that loses to Georgia in the SEC championship game is also likely in. If Alabama slips up and doesn't win the West, though, there could be a debate in the committee meeting room. Alabama will benefit from its road win at Texas, assuming the Longhorns have a respectable season. The Tide entered this week ranked No. 21 in ESPN's strength of schedule, which is boosted in part by its crossover game at Tennessee. The Vols are a common opponent with Georgia and would be discussed in the room. Even without winning its division, Alabama could still make a strong case for the top four, but who in the West it loses to, where and how will all factor into the debate -- along with the résumés of the Power 5 conference champions they are competing with for a top-four spot.
Ohio State (4-0)
Saturday result: Ohio State 52, Wisconsin 21
Best September win: Ohio State 21, Notre Dame 10
Toughest test ahead: Nov. 26 vs. Michigan. The Buckeyes get their rival at home -- which is why you could make the case that their Oct. 29 trip to Penn State is more difficult -- but no game will be more impactful to the Big Ten's playoff hopes as The Game.
What the selection committee will consider: An undefeated Big Ten champ is in. A one-loss Big Ten champ is in. If Ohio State doesn't win the East, though, it will face the same scrutiny as any other contender or independent without a conference title. Ohio State would need its win against the Irish to impress the committee, and they took another step in that direction on Saturday with Notre Dame's win at UNC. If Ohio State's only loss is to Big Ten champion Michigan, it's possible both Big Ten teams finish in the top four, but Ohio State would need some help. A loss to the eventual conference champion is different from an upset along the way to a team that doesn't win the Big Ten. Regardless, Ohio State would need Notre Dame, Penn State and Michigan State to finish in the CFP's Top 25 to have a shot. Only PSU entered this week as a top-25 team. Those wins would have to outweigh a Power 5 conference champion's résumé.
TIER 2: Undefeated blue bloods battling for No. 4
Michigan (4-0)
Saturday result: Michigan 34, Maryland 27
Best September win: Saturday against the Terps. The Wolverines' nonconference opponents (Colorado State, Hawai'i and UConn) are ranked No. 110 or lower in ESPN's FPI.
Toughest test ahead: Nov. 26 at Ohio State. ESPN's FPI projects Michigan will be undefeated heading to Columbus but gives the Buckeyes a 73.4% chance to win.
What the selection committee will consider: Michigan needs to win the Big Ten, because it entered this week ranked No. 131 in strength of schedule. If the Wolverines don't beat Ohio State, they will have to rely on wins against Penn State, Michigan State and Iowa to impress the committee -- and that probably won't cut it. (Especially after Michigan State dropped another one, this time to Minnesota.) If Michigan isn't a conference champion, it would be evaluated the same way as an independent such as Notre Dame, and the committee would have to deem it "unequivocally" one of the four best teams. If the Big Ten is going to get two teams in the top four, the most realistic scenario is for Michigan to win the league and Ohio State to lose a close one to the Wolverines in their lone loss of the season.
Clemson holds off Wake Forest with a 4th-down stop in the second overtime to win 51-45 vs. Wake Forest.
Clemson (4-0)
Saturday result: Clemson 51, Wake Forest 45 (2 OT)
Best September win: Saturday at Wake Forest. With the win, Clemson reasserted itself as the team to beat in the ACC's Atlantic Division and maintained its position as the league's best hope for a playoff semifinalist.
Toughest test ahead: Nov. 5 at Notre Dame. While this doesn't appear as daunting as it did before the Irish began the season 0-2, it's clear Notre Dame is improving, evidenced by its win at North Carolina on Saturday. Clemson proved against the Deacs it can win on the road in a tough environment, and they'll have to do it again.
What the selection committee will consider: Undefeated Clemson is in, but one loss opens the door for debate, even with an ACC title. As thrilling as Clemson's win was Saturday, its secondary was outplayed repeatedly. How would the unit match up against Ohio State's wide receivers? Clemson has a fearsome defensive front, and it's clear quarterback DJ Uiagalelei is playing with more confidence and in turn more accuracy, but the Tigers still have to face NC State and travel to Florida State, two of the more difficult Atlantic Division games. If two SEC teams finish in the top four again, and the Big Ten champion earns a spot, the ACC champion will have to win a debate against the Big 12 and Pac-12 champions (or maybe a second Big Ten team). Would one-loss Clemson usurp one-loss USC or Oklahoma? It's certainly possible, especially if the Tigers look the part. Time will tell how good their nonconference schedule is, though, and so far South Carolina isn't doing its rival any favors (its only wins are against Georgia State and Charlotte). Crossover opponent Miami was also embarrassed by Middle Tennessee and should drop out of the top 25 this week.
USC (4-0)
Saturday result: USC 17, Oregon State 14
Best September win: Saturday at Oregon State. It was a tough road test against a league opponent, and the Trojans avoided what very easily could have been a trap game.
Toughest test ahead: Oct. 15 at Utah. USC should be undefeated heading into this game, and Utah can't afford to lose a second game. ESPN's FPI gives the Utes a 53.6% chance to win -- the only game on USC's schedule in which FPI doesn't favor the Trojans.
What the selection committee will consider: The group will like USC's offensive playmakers and its consistent ability to find ways to win, recognizing that even CFP-caliber teams don't always win by 40 points every week (See: Georgia). The question is if USC's offense can continue to compensate for some weaknesses on defense against better competition. There are several scenarios for USC, because it can lose to Utah and still win the Pac-12, and it can also lose to Notre Dame but go undefeated in Pac-12 play. Bottom line: If USC finishes with one loss, it needs to hope it beat enough CFP Top 25 teams to compensate for it.
TIER 3: Undefeated but need to show more
Oklahoma State (3-0)
Saturday result: Bye week
Best September win: Sept. 10 vs. Arizona State. When your best win is against a team that already fired its head coach...
Toughest test ahead: Nov. 19 at Oklahoma. Bedlam isn't over yet. By this point, we'll know how seriously to take the Cowboys in the Big 12 race, as they will have faced Baylor and Texas. This could be a must-win or simply for bragging rights.
What the selection committee will consider: Every team must impress the committee on film, and Oklahoma State has yet to do that. If it had, the Cowboys might have won the Big 12 title and been in the top four last year instead of undefeated Cincinnati. Oklahoma State doesn't have a strong nonconference schedule, so it needs to win the Big 12 to have a chance.
Penn State (4-0)
Saturday result: Penn State 33, Central Michigan 14
Best September win: Sept. 17 at Auburn
Toughest test ahead: Oct. 15 at Michigan. It's a coin toss, but at least they have home-field advantage against the Buckeyes on Oct. 29.
What the selection committee will consider: Penn State's offense is improving with quarterback Sean Clifford, a key being that it has found some help in the running game. The Nittany Lions have the schedule to impress the committee, but that's a double-edged sword. If they're good enough to beat Ohio State and Michigan and win the Big Ten, they'll be good enough to finish in the top four.
Washington (4-0)
Saturday result: Washington 40, Stanford 22
Best September win: Sept. 17 vs. Michigan State. Yes, the Spartans were hammered Saturday by Minnesota, calling into question the value of a win against them, but that also speaks volumes about the improvement both Washington and Minnesota are making.
Toughest test ahead: Nov. 12 at Oregon. If Washington wins at UCLA next week, there's a good chance the Huskies will be undefeated heading into Eugene. ESPN's FPI gives Oregon a 58.2% chance to win.
What the selection committee will consider: Even if Washington loses to Oregon, it could still be considered as a one-loss Pac-12 champion. The Huskies could redeem themselves by beating Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. Washington doesn't have to face USC or Utah during the regular season, but a win against one of them in the Pac-12 championship also would put Washington back in the playoff conversation if the Huskies can finish with one loss or undefeated. If Michigan State can finish above .500, that win can still hold more value than some nonconference wins of other Power 5 contenders.
Tennessee (4-0)
Saturday result: Tennessee 38, Florida 33
Best September win: Saturday vs. the Gators. This was the kind of statement win that can mark the turning point in a program -- if the Vols can build off it. Tennessee had lost 16 of its previous 17 meetings in the series, with the last win coming in 2016.
Toughest test ahead: Nov. 5 at Georgia. The Vols will have faced Alabama already in a crossover game and will need to beat Georgia to win the East. If they have two losses, the highlight of the season will remain the win over the Gators.
What the selection committee will consider: Tennessee has a chance to beat both teams that played for the national championship last year.
Kentucky (4-0)
Saturday result: Kentucky 31, Northern Illinois 23
Best September win: Sept. 10 at Florida. It was a tough road win against an SEC East opponent and kept the Wildcats in the division race. It's also their only win so far against a Power 5 opponent.
Toughest test ahead: Nov. 19 vs. Georgia. If Kentucky is going to take the next step and win the East, it must win this game, but ESPN's FPI gives Georgia an 86.6% chance to win.
What the selection committee will consider: How grueling this schedule is. If somehow Kentucky survives a road trip to Ole Miss, and a crossover game against Mississippi State -- plus Tennessee and Georgia -- there won't be any doubt it's a playoff contender.
NC State (4-0)
Saturday result: NC State 41, UConn 10
Best September win: Sept. 17 vs. Texas Tech (the same Red Raiders team that just beat Texas).
Toughest test ahead: Saturday at Clemson. This game will determine if the Wolfpack are a contender in the Atlantic Division, the first step in legitimizing their playoff hopes.
What the selection committee will consider: NC State has to win the ACC, and it needs Texas Tech to exceed expectations. It will be interesting to see how many ACC teams are ranked in the final CFP Top 25, but NC State as a conference champion would be banking heavily on wins against Clemson, Texas Tech, Wake Forest, North Carolina and whomever they faced in the ACC title game.
TIER 4: One-loss teams that could still make a run
Utah (3-1)
Saturday result: Utah 34, Arizona State 13
Best September win: Umm ... it's not FCS Southern Utah, or a Herm Edwards-less Arizona State. San Diego State went through three quarterbacks, but the Utes took care of business against the Aztecs. That counts, right?
Toughest test ahead: Nov. 19 at Oregon. The picture changed slightly this week, as USC was struggling against Oregon State, and Oregon kept its playoff hopes alive with a difficult road win at Washington State. Utah will get USC at home, while this late-season trip to Autzen Stadium could be a dagger, especially if Oregon is playing for a semifinal spot, too.
What the selection committee will consider: The close road loss to Florida in the season opener won't hurt the Utes much in the meeting room, but it puts them under pressure to win the league. If Utah can run the table and win at UCLA, beating top-25 teams in Oregon and USC along the way, they will be in the debate.
Oregon (3-1)
Saturday result: Oregon 44, Washington State 41
Best September win: Sept. 17 vs. BYU. Oregon did what a playoff contender is supposed to do Saturday -- beat an unranked conference opponent on the road. The nonconference win against a top-25 BYU team can help separate the Ducks from other contenders with less-impressive nonconference wins. (As long as BYU finishes in the CFP Top 25).
Toughest test ahead: Nov. 19 vs. Utah. According to ESPN's FPI, this is the biggest coin toss on the schedule, with a 50.3% chance for the Utes to win and the lone game in which it doesn't favor the Ducks.
What the selection committee will consider: If Oregon can finish as a one-loss Pac-12 champion, and BYU remains a top-25 team, that resounding loss to Georgia in the season opener isn't going to keep the Ducks out of the top-four conversation. (Especially if Georgia does that to everyone not named Kent State.) They're in must-win mode, though, because a second loss would be nearly impossible to overcome.
Oklahoma (3-1)
Saturday result: Kansas State 41, Oklahoma 34
Best September win: Yikes. UTEP? Kent State? A Nebraska team that fired its coach? Let's go with the 33-3 win over Kent State, only because the Sooners had a better defensive performance against the Golden Flashes than -- gasp -- Georgia, which beat Kent State on Saturday 39-22.
Toughest test ahead: Oct. 8 vs. Texas. Yes, the Longhorns lost Saturday, too, (S-E-C! S-E-C!) but this rivalry matchup could be an elimination game for the Sooners before they even get to mid-October. (Unless TCU gets 'em first.)
What the selection committee will consider: Oklahoma's best hope is to finish as a one-loss Big 12 champion, but even that might not be good enough. It depends on what the ACC and Pac-12 have to offer, but those nonconference wins won't help the Sooners separate in a tough debate -- especially when Clemson and USC both have a shot at Notre Dame.
Baylor (3-1)
Saturday result: Baylor 31, Iowa State 24
Best September win: Saturday at Iowa State. It was the Bears' first win of the season against a Power 5 opponent.
Toughest test ahead: Nov. 5 at Oklahoma.
What the selection committee will consider: The road loss to BYU is going to sting, but it might not be a deal-breaker if Baylor goes on to finish as a one-loss Big 12 champion. Baylor has no margin for error moving forward, though, because it's unlikely the Bears would finish in the top four as a two-loss Big 12 champion.
Tyreek Chappell comes away with a fumble recovery and hands it off to Demani Richardson, who takes it 81 yards to the crib for the Aggies.
Texas A&M (3-1)
Saturday result: Texas A&M 23, Arkansas 21
Best September win: Saturday vs. the Hogs. After losing to Appalachian State, and then watching Miami lose Saturday to Middle Tennessee, this is easily the Aggies' most impressive win.
Toughest test ahead: Oct. 8 at Alabama. This has nothing to do with the Jimbo Fisher vs. Nick Saban spring spat, and everything to do with the fact the Aggies haven't played in the same stratosphere as the Tide yet this season.
What the selection committee will consider: The loss to App State is going to be difficult to overcome, but any team with a shot at winning the SEC has a chance to finish in the top four, and A&M kept the dream alive Saturday. Texas A&M entered Week 4 ranked No. 100 in offensive efficiency, though, which will make it difficult to run the table in the SEC.
Arkansas (3-1)
Saturday result: Texas A&M 23, Arkansas 21
Best September win: Sept. 3 vs. Cincinnati. SEC fans might argue it was against South Carolina, but the unranked Gamecocks were trailing Charlotte at one point Saturday before eventually winning convincingly.
Toughest test ahead: Oct. 1 vs. Alabama. Arkansas can certainly play the role of spoiler, but with the loss to the Aggies, it's going to take more than a win against the Tide to get back into the division race. The Hogs need Texas A&M to lose two SEC West games (definitely possible).
What the selection committee will consider: There are plenty of opportunities for Arkansas to redeem itself, starting with Alabama and including a sneaky Oct. 15 road trip to BYU, but the Hogs have to win them all, which doesn't seem realistic. The reality is that Arkansas immediately became an afterthought in the CFP conversation with the loss Saturday. If Arkansas still only has one loss heading into November, it's fair to at least reconsider the possibility.