Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.
The Matchups Map provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, rating all 32 opposing defenses in terms of how favorable the matchup is for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying on seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced over the most recent five weeks. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Adj. FPA, or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how many points the defense allows compared with players' weekly averages. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (at Indianapolis Colts). After a two-week absence due to a concussion, Stroud returned in Week 17 to score 12.92 fantasy points against the Tennessee Titans, a much tougher matchup than this one. The Colts have served up a pair of 20-plus-point performances and an average of 16.5 points the past five weeks, despite not facing a single quarterback who ranks higher than 27th at the position in fantasy points for the season. Every one of those quarterbacks outscored his seasonal average, and bear in mind that Stroud's is 18.2.
Others to like: Justin Fields, Chicago Bears (at Green Bay Packers); Tyrod Taylor, New York Giants (vs. Philadelphia Eagles).
Matchup to avoid: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (vs. Buffalo Bills). His brutal season-ending schedule concludes with this matchup against the Bills, with the best thing that can be said for his fantasy prospects being that he'll have the motivation of playing for a division title and with it a playoff home game. Tagovailoa has fallen very much into a matchups-oriented pattern, though, as taking seasonal Adjusted FPA numbers, he has averaged 15.0 points against the eight toughest defenses against the position, 18.9 against the eight weakest and 17.2 against the other 16 teams. The Bills' defense has suffered many injury losses, but it has nevertheless performed well against quarterbacks of late, including limiting Patrick Mahomes to 13.64 fantasy points in Week 14 and Dak Prescott to 6.06 in Week 15.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Seattle Seahawks). He was a Week 17 star, scoring 26.3 PPR fantasy points in the team's stunning upset of the Philadelphia Eagles, and has averaged 22.2 points and 21.5 touches in his past four games. Conner now faces the Seahawks, one of this year's worst defenses against the run. In just the past two weeks, three different running backs exceeded 19 PPR fantasy points against this defense, and eight have exceeded 15 points in the past eight weeks against it. Conner was absent the last time the Cardinals battled the Seahawks, but the team totaled 127 rushing yards and a score in that contest.
Others to like: Melvin Gordon III, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers); Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks (at Cardinals).
Matchup to avoid: Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (at Titans). He excelled last week as the team's offensive centerpiece while Trevor Lawrence nursed a shoulder issue, but the matchup was also extremely soft for Etienne, as the Panthers rank 29th in Adjusted FPA for the season. This one is much stiffer, not to mention that Lawrence might well be back to absorb more of the offensive burden. The Titans held the Texans' and Seahawks' running backs to a combined 22.1 PPR fantasy points the past two weeks, and they limited Etienne to 8.9 points in their Week 11 meeting.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Brandin Cooks, Dallas Cowboys (at Washington Commanders). The Cowboys need to win this game in order to secure the NFC East, the conference's No. 2 seed and, with it, prospective home games in each of the first two playoff rounds, rather than potentially spend their playoffs entirely on the road. They'll get what has been football's No. 1 matchup for a wide receiver all season long, as the Commanders have the most Adjusted FPA (9.4), Adjusted FPA against WR1s (6.2) and allowed the most PPR fantasy points per target (2.1) and 20-point performances (11) to the position. Cooks scored 17.2 points, his second-best effort all season, against the Commanders in their Week 12 meeting.
Others to like: Michael Pittman Jr., Colts (vs. Texans); Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings (at Detroit Lions).
Matchup to avoid: Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints (versus Atlanta Falcons). His season has been a bit too hit-or-miss -- he has nearly as many sub-10-PPR-fantasy-point (4) as 17.5-plus-point (5) performances -- to roll him out there without concern for his matchups. Though Olave did manage 18.4 PPR fantasy points in these teams' Week 12 meeting, he's one of only two wide receivers to exceed 13 against the Falcons all year -- and the other, DJ Moore (30.9 in Week 17), required 13 targets with three in the end zone (only one caught for a touchdown) to do it. The Falcons' 1.41 points per target afforded to WR1s the past five weeks is sixth-fewest in the league.
Tight ends
Matchups highlights: Hunter Henry, New England Patriots (vs. New York Jets) and Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Denver Broncos). A pair of tight ends who missed Week 17 due to injuries, Henry's a knee and Mayer's a toe issue, both would make strong matchups-driven fantasy starts if cleared to play their teams' regular-season finales. Henry hauled in one of his two touchdown catches this season in the Patriots' Week 10 game against these same Jets, who saw Logan Thomas and David Njoku total 32.0 PPR fantasy points against them the past two weeks. Mayer, meanwhile, faces a Broncos team that has surrendered both the most PPR fantasy points per game (16.2) as well as points per target (2.03) to the position this season.
Matchup to avoid: Tucker Kraft, Packers (vs. Bears). His 63.1 PPR fantasy points since taking over for the injured Luke Musgrave (lacerated kidney, IR) in Week 12 ranks eighth during that time, but his five-target average nevertheless leaves him susceptible to his matchups. This isn't a good one, against a Bears defense that in the past five weeks has seen 45 tight end targets, fourth-most in the league, but surrendered only 52.2 PPR fantasy points, seventh-fewest, with them.