2021 NFL draft's biggest questions: Kiper, McShay preview No. 1 picks, QB class and names to know

The 2021 NFL draft could be the wildest yet. With the road to the College Football Playoff cluttered with game postponements, cancellations and player opt-outs due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there are many unknowns as we approach Round 1 of the draft on April 29. ESPN NFL draft experts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay are here to help fill in the gaps.

Will quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields go with the first two picks in the draft order, projected to the Jets and Jaguars? Who are the defensive players to know in the class? How has the pandemic changed the way NFL teams will scout the class? And what could the Patriots do with a potential top-15 pick? Kiper and McShay answer 30 big questions to get you ready for the draft:

Jump to an interesting question:
How close is the QB gap at the top?
Could the Cowboys target a quarterback?
How many receivers could go in Round 1?
What is the Patriots' biggest need?
What's your bold prediction for the draft?

Describe the 2021 class in one word:

Kiper: Mysterious. It's really an unprecedented year with so many prospects opting out of the season because of the COVID-19 pandemic. There are going to be several guys who enter the draft with only a handful of starts. That means wild-card prospects galore. And we still don't know what the pre-draft process will look like, though I expect the Senior Bowl and combine to happen next year.

How has this year changed the way NFL scouts evaluate prospects?

McShay: For starters, there's much less substance to evaluate. Six prospects in my top 19 opted out of the season, including Oregon's Penei Sewell, LSU's Ja'Marr Chase, Penn State's Micah Parsons, Miami's Gregory Rousseau, Northwestern's Rashawn Slater and Virginia Tech's Caleb Farley. Two more -- Texas' Samuel Cosmi and Minnesota's Rashod Bateman -- are planning on opting out of remaining games. North Dakota State QB prospect Trey Lance played a one-game season. And many more will play fewer games than they typically would.

That will put more importance on the Senior Bowl and NFL scouting combine than in a normal year. If the Big Ten and Pac-12 hadn't returned to play, those showcase events would have been even more crucial to the process, but even still, many players just won't have the tape that scouts want. And when they don't have the tape they want, they look for anything they can find to see these prospects perform and compete. There's only so much you can get from the combine, but in an odd year, it certainly carries more value. And I'm excited to see some top talents at the Senior Bowl, which is currently on track to go on as planned.

Is Trevor Lawrence the clear top prospect in this draft?

Kiper: Yes. The Clemson quarterback is the cream of the crop in this class, and I expect him to be atop my board the rest of the way. If you're looking for a comp, go back to the 2012 draft, when we knew for months that Andrew Luck was going to the Colts with the No. 1 pick to succeed Peyton Manning.

Lawrence has everything NFL teams look for in a franchise signal-caller. At 6-foot-6, he can make every throw with accuracy. He rarely makes mistakes. He can move around the pocket and throw on the run. Lawrence is the guy in this class.

How close is the gap between Lawrence and Justin Fields?

McShay: Fields is playing great -- his 94.4 Total QBR ranks second in the nation -- and he has improved his draft stock this season. The 6-foot-3 Ohio State signal-caller throws accurately downfield with zip on the ball and is effective when forced off-schedule.

But Fields is not Lawrence. Lawrence had his first live game action in 35 days on Saturday, a 52-17 win over Pitt in which he threw for more than 400 yards, and I saw no rust. There isn't a better player in college football than him, and it's not even close. That said, Fields is the No. 2 prospect on my board right now, and in another year, he'd certainly have No. 1 overall pick chatter.

Do you expect quarterbacks to go 1-2 in April?

Kiper: I do, yes, with the caveat that it ends up being the Jets and Jaguars at the top, which is what is projected through 12 weeks. If the Bengals lose out and sneak in there, they're not going to take a quarterback. But New York and Jacksonville absolutely should take Lawrence and Fields.

Sam Darnold isn't the guy for the Jets. We've now seen 33 NFL starts from him, and he has completed 59.7% of his passes with 39 touchdowns and 34 interceptions while averaging 6.7 yards per attempt. No, he hasn't gotten a ton of help from the talent around him, but that isn't going to get it done. The Jets can upgrade with Lawrence or Fields. Darnold, who's still only 23, could have a little trade value as well. As for the Jags, Gardner Minshew isn't the future at the position. This is their chance to get a star around whom to build.

How does the rest of the QB class look?

McShay: The quarterback class is shaping up to be much deeper than we expected in the preseason. Lance probably will be the next QB off the board, and he should be a Round 1 pick despite playing only one game this season. He has the size, arm and mobility that NFL teams crave. BYU's Zach Wilson and Alabama's Mac Jones are the next two in my rankings, and each have a shot to go in the first round. Wilson extends plays well and shows excellent deep-ball accuracy, and Jones throws receivers open and has fast eyes.

Florida's Kyle Trask is playing as well as any QB in the country right now -- he could win the Heisman -- and I think he has locked down at least a Day 2 spot. And then there is Kellen Mond of Texas A&M, who has been inconsistent during his college career but could also go on Day 2.

Make the call now: How many quarterbacks will go in Round 1?

Kiper: Five. It's not out of the question that we see four among the top 15 picks, with Lance and Wilson behind Lawrence and Fields on my board. Remember that four QBs went in the top 10 picks in 2018, so it's not that out of the ordinary. My fifth-ranked quarterback right now is Jones; I have a late-first-round grade on him. He'd be a great choice for a team picking in the 20s who could give him some time to develop. Trask is right behind Jones, and he could be in the discussion over the next few months as well.

Are there any worries about Lance playing only a handful of games at an FCS school?

McShay: Of course. He has thrown for more than 300 yards once in his career, and he has never competed against an FBS opponent. He's also a 20-year-old third-year sophomore with 17 career starts. Lance has the tools and frame, and there's no doubt that he's a playmaker. But he is still developing as a passer and as a play processor, and I'd need to have the right offensive coordinator in place and plenty of time to develop him if I'm going to take a chance with Lance in the top 15 picks. If that's my situation, though, I would make the pick and build my team around him.

Which other teams could take a quarterback in the top 10 picks?

Kiper: The teams to watch are Detroit, Atlanta, Washington and Denver, though not all of them will end up in the top 10 (and 4-7 Washington could win the NFC East!). The Lions and Falcons are in a similar place -- both fired their general managers and coaches. Matthew Stafford is 32 and Matt Ryan is 35; could the new regimes start from scratch and try to find the heir apparent at quarterback? It shouldn't be out of the question.

Ron Rivera's Washington team appears ready to move on from 2019 first-rounder Dwayne Haskins Jr., and Alex Smith is a great comeback story, but I don't think he's their quarterback of the future. As for the Broncos, Drew Lock has had a disappointing sophomore season, but he also hasn't had Courtland Sutton and has dealt with injuries. John Elway & Co. could give Lock a third year, though I wouldn't be shocked if they drafted Lance or Wilson.

Wait, what about the Cowboys? Could they go after a QB?

McShay: A lot of it depends on Dak Prescott's health and where the Cowboys are actually picking, so it's too early to say. If the Cowboys decide to commit to Prescott -- who's a free agent after the season -- and pass on the quarterbacks, I think the focus will be on defense or tight end.

The defense can't be ignored -- Dallas is currently bottom-third in most defensive categories. Micah Parsons would be fantastic in that linebacker group, Patrick Surtain II would help boost the secondary and Gregory Rousseau would provide a spark off the edge. But Florida tight end Kyle Pitts is arguably the biggest matchup nightmare in college football right now. If Dallas adds him to an offense that includes a healthy Prescott, a healthy offensive line, Ezekiel Elliott and three extremely talented wide receivers, look out.

OK, enough about the quarterbacks ... who's the best non-QB prospect in this class?

Kiper: Offensive tackle Penei Sewell. He's a plug-and-play left tackle in the mold of Orlando Pace, Walter Jones and Anthony Munoz. Yes, I'm saying he's a Hall of Fame talent, and he'd be in the running for the No. 1 overall pick in most other drafts. Sewell opted out of the 2020 season, but he started 20 games in his career, so I'm not worried about the sample size here. He'd look great protecting Joe Burrow's blindside in Cincinnati, with 2019 first-rounder Jonah Williams moving over to right tackle, where he played some at Alabama.

Who could be the first defender off the board?

McShay: Parsons is the best bet, even though he also didn't play a snap in 2020. He fits what the NFL wants from the linebacker position today. He is long and athletic, he can rush the quarterback, he can drop into coverage and he can wrap up in run defense. I believe he has the chance to be a top-five NFL linebacker within just a few years. If it's not Parsons, a team might reach for Rousseau to fill a pass-rush need, and Surtain isn't out of the conversation for a team looking for a shutdown cornerback. Like Parsons, Rousseau opted out, but he did have 15.5 sacks at Miami a year ago.

How's this edge rushing class?

Kiper: It's weaker in the top tier, but it has some depth. There is no clear-cut, elite No. 1 edge rusher in this class. Teams aren't going to get a Chase Young or Nick Bosa. McShay mentioned Rousseau, and Michigan's Kwity Paye could challenge him for the top spot. He has had an up-and-down career but is a super athlete. Teams will be able to find value pass-rushers on Day 2, though. Guys like Joe Tryon (Washington), Patrick Jones II (Pitt) and Joseph Ossai (Texas) will make an impact in the second round.

Let's get Tua Tagovailoa some help. What should the Dolphins do with their two first-rounders?

McShay: Wide receiver is the big need. Ja'Marr Chase, my top-ranked receiver at the moment, is a possibility, but Tua's former Alabama teammates DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle would also be great picks, as would Minnesota's Rashod Bateman. Tagovailoa is at his best when the offense spreads it out with three or four receivers, letting him distribute the ball. Then, offensive line, safety and cover linebacker would be in play with the other first-round selection.

What positions could the Jets target with their second first-round pick?

Kiper: You're talking the end of Round 1, since that's Seattle's pick from the Jamal Adams trade. And the Jets really have needs all over their roster. That means they should go with the best player left on their board. Could it be an edge rusher? Texas' Joseph Ossai could still be around there. I don't think there will be a No. 1 cornerback available, but it's still early enough to where we could see risers in the pre-draft process. They could also go offensive line and wide receiver, positions they targeted with their first two picks in the 2020 draft. A wideout such as LSU's Terrace Marshall Jr. makes a lot of sense to pair with Denzel Mims and help the new quarterback.

Six wide receivers went in the first round in 2020. Over/under on that many in 2021?

McShay: I'm going to say under but not by much. Five feels like the number. It's too early to put names to it, but Chase, Smith, Waddle and Bateman should be there, and Ohio State's Chris Olave might join them.

But is there a clear top wideout?

Kiper: Three receivers in this class are going to get elite grades from me. Smith and Chase are 1A and 1B. They can beat cornerbacks in so many ways, and they're tremendous after the catch. They don't have weaknesses. I also really like Waddle, a speedster who is out for the season after suffering an ankle injury in October. If he drops to the 20s, some team is going to get a steal.

Is this the year that the Packers finally take a WR in Round 1?

McShay: Man, it better be. There are too many good receivers available, and someone like Waddle would thrive with Aaron Rodgers. He is only 5-foot-10 and is coming off that ankle injury, but when Waddle is healthy, he is the burner of this class and the most explosive prospect with the ball in his hands. There is an after-the-catch component to his game, and he is getting better about making sharper cuts in his routes. His explosiveness opposite Davante Adams would be lethal. But it's also worth remembering that the Packers are 8-3 and could end up with a back-end pick in Round 1 if they don't trade up.

How does this tight end class compare to 2020?

Kiper: It's much better at the top. We didn't have a first-round tight end in 2020, and only one went in Round 2 (Cole Kmet to Chicago). In this class, there's a potential top-10 pick in Kyle Pitts, a 6-foot-6 touchdown machine who can also block a little bit. He's a special talent. I don't see another first-round tight end right now, but there could be more in the second round. Pat Freiermuth (Penn State), James Mitchell (Virginia Tech) and Brevin Jordan (Miami) are next up on my board.

Over/under 1.5 first-round running backs?

McShay: That's a true Vegas-like line. Clemson's Travis Etienne, a real home run hitter, probably comes off the board in the first round, though likely on the back end. But if I were to guess right now, he'd be the only one.

I love the way Alabama's Najee Harris runs, showing plenty of aggressiveness and physicality this year, but he's probably a Day 2 talent at this point if we are being honest. Oklahoma State's Chuba Hubbard is also in the mix -- he's sudden in the way he carries the ball -- but he's a second-rounder, as well.

OK, set the line, Mel: How many Day 1 defensive backs?

Kiper: I'll go with five. Todd mentioned Surtain earlier, and he could be a top-10 pick. Caleb Farley (Virginia Tech) and Shaun Wade (Ohio State) are the other corners who have first-round grades from me. I'm going to build in room for one more corner to go in Round 1 because teams covet these guys; six went in the first round this past April. So that's four cornerbacks and one safety, and I'll go with the rangy Trevon Moehrig (TCU) as the safety.

Which school is going to have the most first-rounders?

McShay: Brace yourselves for a shocker: It's Alabama. It starts with Smith and Waddle. There have been five drafts in which one school has produced two first-round receivers, but no school has ever done it twice, let alone in back-to-back years. (Alabama's Henry Ruggs III and Jerry Jeudy were Round 1 WRs in 2020.)

Then there are Surtain, Jones, Harris and Christian Barmore (a defensive tackle and third-year sophomore who has emerged this season) as candidates. Even linebacker Dylan Moses could sneak in.

You get to call dibs on one 2021 prospect: Who's your guy in this class?

Kiper: I'll give you one for both sides of the ball. Bama wideout DeVonta Smith is my guy. He's so smooth as a route runner and is stellar after the catch. He is a special player. On defense, give me Missouri linebacker Nick Bolton, who has long arms and can diagnose plays with the best of them. He's always around the football. Bolton is my second-ranked inside linebacker, just behind Parsons.

McShay: I'd say Pitts, the tight end out of Florida, but he's too obvious ... though Smith fits that description, too, Mel. How about Northwestern offensive lineman Rashawn Slater? He played a lot of tackle for the Wildcats before opting out of the 2020 season, but he projects as an interior guy, probably at center. He's smooth, he has power and he shows a great feel for angles. Slater, 14th on my board, might end up the best offensive lineman in the entire class.

Who's your favorite prospect who probably won't be picked on Day 1?

Kiper: Can I go with two road graders here? Alabama center Landon Dickerson plays a fiery brand of football, bulldozing defenders to create space for Najee Harris. He's my top-ranked prospect at the position, but centers aren't always valued as first-rounders so he could be available early in Round 2. I also really like Lance's left tackle at North Dakota State, Dillon Radunz, who has great size (6-foot-6) and is light on his feet but will need some time to adapt to the NFL. I'm looking forward to seeing Radunz at the Senior Bowl.

McShay: A few jump out to me, but if I had to name one, it's Ohio State linebacker Pete Werner. I love his game. He has the length and recognition skills to match up in coverage, he can be disruptive as a pass-rusher when turned loose and he closes so quick as a run-stopper. North Carolina running back Michael Carter's explosiveness and versatility stand out, too. And while we're at it, I'll also mention Florida wide receiver Kadarius Toney and Boston College tight end Hunter Long as solid Day 2 prospects who will make an NFL impact.

Let's add help for the Super Bowl champs. How could the Chiefs get better on Day 1 of the draft?

Kiper: They have explosive weapons on offense, but Sammy Watkins will be a free agent after the season. Who is the Chiefs' No. 2 wide receiver? They could add to their stockpile at the end of Round 1. Could you imagine Purdue speedster Rondale Moore playing alongside Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman? They could also look toward a cornerback, safety or edge rusher to shore up their defensive depth.

It's rare for the Patriots to have a top-15 pick these days. What is their biggest need?

McShay: Quarterback. Cam Newton isn't New England's long-term answer, and if Jarrett Stidham was, he'd be playing. At 5-6, the Patriots probably won't have a top-five pick, meaning they'd be turning their attention to Lance, Wilson and Jones in Round 1. New England is one of only four NFL teams currently averaging fewer than 200 passing yards.

Are you still sold on Daniel Jones with the Giants, or could they target a QB early?

Kiper: We all know Todd isn't a huge fan of Jones' skill set, but they absolutely have their guy. They don't need to draft another quarterback. He has improved in Year 2, cutting down on his turnovers and making better decisions with the ball. He hadn't thrown an interception in his past three starts before suffering a hamstring injury that could force him to miss a few games. Jones is also missing Saquon Barkley and hasn't had his full complement of wideouts due to injuries. The Giants have much bigger needs, particularly on defense.

Who do you expect to be the NFL combine all-stars this year?

McShay: Penn State's Parsons strikes me as the guy we will be really wowed by when, and if, the combine rolls around. He is so long and fast at that linebacker position, and his burst will show in the drills. If healthy, Alabama's Waddle will be the guy to watch in the 40-yard dash. As long as that ankle is good to go, he has low-4.3 speed. And lastly, I think we've all seen just how quick Texas' Ossai can be on the field. That will translate to the combine testing.

Who's your highest-rated Group of 5 prospect?

Kiper: It's Memphis running back Kenneth Gainwell, a dynamic playmaker who had four runs of 60-plus yards last season. He's also a dynamic pass-catcher who will help a team on third down. Gainwell opted out of the 2020 season but that shouldn't affect his draft status. He's my fifth-ranked running back and will make some team happy on Day 2. Three others who are in the mix: Tulsa outside linebacker Zaven Collins, East Carolina offensive tackle D'Ante Smith and UAB wideout Austin Watkins Jr.

OK, give us one bold prediction for the 2021 draft.

Kiper: This is really only bold for draft junkies, but I'll say that DeVonta Smith will be the first receiver off the board. We thought last year that Ja'Marr Chase was a lock to be the top wideout, but it's really close. And I like Smith just a little bit more.

McShay: Seven of the top 10 picks will be on the offensive side of the ball. And Florida's Pitts will become one of the 10 highest-drafted tight ends in NFL draft history, going in the Nos. 5-8 range.