We've hit the final month of the 2021 NFL regular season, and college football's bowls are ready to kick off. This is when we really start to heat up the conversations around the 2022 NFL draft, and I'm kicking it off with my first mock draft of April's first round, predicting how the picks will fall and which teams land a potential franchise quarterback on Day 1.
It's not going to be a typical draft. Quarterbacks have gone No. 1 overall in six of the past seven drafts, but we might not even see one in the top 10 in 2022 for the first time since 2013, when EJ Manuel led the signal-callers at No. 16 overall. That doesn't mean there won't be first-round QBs, though -- I have a handful in this mock. But the defensive talent in this class is fantastic, and we could see edge rushers and defensive backs dominate the high picks. In all, 30 of the top 32 players in my rankings right now make the first-round cut.
Of course, it's still early. Bowl season, the College Football Playoff, the Senior Bowl, the combine and all of the other pre-draft events lie in the coming months. There will be risers and fallers, and NFL teams' needs will shift entirely. We don't even have a final draft order yet. For this exercise, we used ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) to project the order of the picks, 1-32.
Let's get to it. Here is my current prediction of how the first round of the 2022 draft will play out, beginning with a toss-up at No. 1 for the one-win Lions. (And be sure to check out our SportsCenter mock draft special.)
Note: Underclassmen are noted with an asterisk. And the draft order projection is through Sunday's Week 14 games.
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1. Detroit Lions (1-11-1)
Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
The Lions are a one-win team for a reason and have holes all over the place. The biggest concern long term, of course, falls at quarterback -- Jared Goff joins four rookies at the bottom of Total QBR this season -- but there isn't one in this class worthy of the top pick. And you aren't taking a receiver or cornerback here, also glaring issues. Detroit has another pick later on Day 1 to address one of those problems.
Instead, the Lions need to take the best player available, and right now, that's Hutchinson. The production speaks for itself: He has 14.0 sacks, 73 tackles, 19 tackles for loss and a pair of forced fumbles, and he tends to play at his best in the biggest spots. Detroit is in the bottom five in yards allowed per play (5.9), points allowed per game (27.2) and sacks (20), and while Romeo Okwara, Julian Okwara, Trey Flowers and a host of others can be impact players, Hutchinson could be the guy on the edge for the Lions.
2. Houston Texans (2-11)
Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon*
The debate between Hutchinson and Thibodeaux will continue over the four months of lead-up to the draft, and the Texans would be happy with whichever player the Lions don't take here. Thibodeaux actually has the better skill set, but Hutchinson is just a consistent force on Michigan's defense and plays with more fire. Thibodeaux had just one sack and one tackle for loss in a pair of ugly losses to Utah this season. But he is scheme versatile, rushes the passer with power and speed and can make plays in the backfield against the run. The Texans still need to replace J.J. Watt on the edge, and Thibodeaux can be a gamebreaker for them. It'd be the first time since 2000 that a pair of DE/OLB prospects went 1-2 in a draft (Courtney Brown and LaVar Arrington).
Houston also has a quarterback conundrum. Will Deshaun Watson be traded? What will become of his 22 active civil lawsuits of sexual assault and inappropriate behavior? There isn't a quarterback worthy of this top-two pick, but the need could absolutely be there, and QBs have been overdrafted before.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11)
Evan Neal, OT, Alabama*
The Jaguars are currently tasking two underwhelming offensive tackles -- Cam Robinson and Jawaan Taylor -- with protecting QB Trevor Lawrence, and as many as three of their starting linemen could be free agents in March. The offense has scored fewer than 20 points in seven straight games, and Jacksonville has been below average in both pass block win rate (56.3%) and run block win rate (69.3%) on the year. Neal, meanwhile, is the clear top tackle in the class, and he brings versatility, the ability to ride speed rushers past the quarterback and the range to help get running backs James Robinson and Travis Etienne Jr. (remember, the Jags' other 2021 first-rounder returns next season) extra yards at the second level.
4. New York Jets (3-10)
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU*
The Jets went offense with their first four picks in 2021, but it's time to address defense. This season, they are allowing a league-high 8.3 yards per pass attempt, have just four interceptions and are one of three teams allowing 70% completions. Stingley's production dipped a bit after a six-INT freshman year at LSU, and he has been out because of a left foot injury, but he can absolutely be the kind of shutdown corner New York clearly has to find.
5. New York Giants (via 4-9 CHI)
George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue*
The Giants have a pair of early picks and could go a bunch of different ways. But they are no better than 25th in sacks (25), pass rush win rate (32.0%) and pressure rate (25.9%), despite some flashes from rookie Azeez Ojulari (7.5 sacks). Karlaftis wins with power and has proven disruptive even though he often sees double-teams for Purdue -- and like Leonard Williams, he is versatile enough to rush from inside when needed.
6. Carolina Panthers (5-8)
Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
Yeah, No. 6 overall is still too rich for my blood when it comes to drafting a QB in this class. Plus, there are dominos that still need to fall with Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson in the offseason. And while Alabama receiver Jameson Williams is the better value here, Carolina can't ignore the offensive line. Its 52.2% pass block win rate is 28th in the NFL. Cross is a patient pass-blocker who can recognize blitzes and disguises. That should come as no surprise, considering his experience: His 682 pass-block snaps this season rank No. 2 in the country, and his 1,238 over the past two years are by far the FBS' most.
7. New York Giants (4-9)
Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia*
Cross could be a great option to shore up a brutal offensive line if he's still available, and Alabama's Jameson Williams would make sense. But I love Dean's game, and he fits what the Giants covet -- another three-down playmaking linebacker to line up with Blake Martinez, who will be returning from a torn ACL. Dean has sideline-to-sideline range and is an artist at slipping blocks, hunting down ball carriers and blowing up plays. Just look at this 13-game stat line for the season: 62 tackles, 5.0 sacks, 8 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles and a touchdown.
8. Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama*
Will the Falcons upgrade in the trenches on either side of the ball? Atlanta is by far the worst in the NFL with just 16 sacks, and its offensive line is allowing pressure at the NFL's ninth-highest rate (31.7%). Could quarterback be the move after the Falcons opted to use the No. 4 pick on tight end Kyle Pitts in 2021, rather than get a QB of the future? It's a tough call, but I see them riding Matt Ryan -- who has played well -- another year, adopting a "best available" strategy here for a roster full of holes and then addressing QB in a better-stocked 2023 class.
And best available right now might just be Williams, who has tons of speed, elusiveness as a ball carrier and sure hands. His 1,445 receiving yards, 15 TD catches and 21.3 yards per catch all rank in the FBS' top five. Paired with Pitts and Calvin Ridley (who is out right now to focus on his mental health), Williams could do damage.
9. New York Jets (via 5-8 SEA)
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame*
I'd love to get New York some help at edge rushing or offensive tackle, but the top players at those positions are off the board. No team has ever used multiple top-10 picks on defensive backs in the same year, per ESPN Stats & Information, but did I mention how much work the Jets' pass defense needs? Stingley and Hamilton would immediately elevate this unit. Hamilton -- who I liken to Denver's Justin Simmons -- has an incredible combination of 6-foot-4 size and speed, plays with great instincts and demonstrates the leadership qualities you want from a high draft pick. And he hauled in three interceptions in seven games before a knee injury derailed his season.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (via 6-7 MIA)
David Ojabo, DE, Michigan*
Philly jump-starts its three-pick Round 1 party with an explosive pass-rusher. Ojabo's first step is lightning fast, and he closes on the QB extremely well -- his 11.0 sacks and 14 tackles for loss this season prove it. Brandon Graham will be 34 years old and returning from an Achilles injury next season, and only two teams have fewer sacks this year than the Eagles' 21. And while they would love see Hamilton fall to them, the Eagles get a defensive upgrade with Ojabo. Michigan has had multiple first-round defenders only three times (1972, 2017 and 2019), but here it sends two to the top 10.
Quarterback is obviously a question mark, too. If the Eagles decide to move on from Jalen Hurts, they could deal some of their first-round picks to upgrade. But I can't see them gambling on a weak crop of QB prospects if they can't solve the issue by trade or free agency.
11. Las Vegas Raiders (6-7)
DeMarvin Leal, DL, Texas A&M*
Las Vegas loves the versatile types up front, and Leal's picture might as well be next to "versatile" in the dictionary. He can win inside with a quick first step. He can turn speed to power on the outside. He can make plays in run defense with excellent range. Yannick Ngakoue and Maxx Crosby are impact players off the edge, but the Raiders are overmatched on the interior every week. They have to nail this pick, and Leal -- my No. 6 prospect -- hits need and value here.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6-1)
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
The wait is over: A quarterback finally comes off the board, and Pittsburgh gets its pick of the top prospects. Ben Roethlisberger is likely in his final season, and his successor is not currently in the building. The Steelers' offense has playmakers, but it needs someone who can distribute them the ball as the team tries to stay competitive in an AFC North division stacked with young franchise QBs. Pickett moves through his progressions and gets the ball out quickly, and he has the class' best combination of pocket awareness, accuracy and decision-making -- which I think are the three most critical traits when projecting a quarterback forward to the NFL.
13. Washington Football Team (6-7)
Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss*
Taylor Heinicke has surprised this season, leading Washington to playoff contention after Ryan Fitzpatrick's Week 1 hip injury. But make no mistake: He is not the long-term answer. Corral has a smooth release and can make things happen with his feet. Perhaps he could sit and continue developing as a pocket passer behind Heinicke in 2022 before taking over. Regardless, Washington needs to find its future under center after striking out on Dwayne Haskins in 2019.
14. Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)
Devin Lloyd, ILB, Utah*
The Eagles have taken just one linebacker in the first round over the past 40 years (Marcus Smith in 2014), but it's obvious they could use a playmaker in the middle of that defense. Lloyd -- who has 96 tackles, 20 tackles for loss, 7.0 sacks and four interceptions for Utah this season -- is rangy and moves around the field like a 235-pound safety. He could quickly become a QB on defense for Philadelphia. Cincinnati cornerback Ahmad Gardner and USC receiver Drake London might also be in play.
15. Minnesota Vikings (6-7)
Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati*
It's hard to find another college corner who is trusted on an island in press-man coverage as much as "Sauce" Gardner. The 6-foot-2, 188-pounder's 321 such snaps this season lead the nation by 61. And despite that big ask, Gardner has yet to allow more than 13 yards in a single game this year. (As an aside, I can't wait to see his Cotton Bowl matchup with Jameson Williams, who averages 21.3 yards per catch.) Minnesota's top three cornerbacks -- Patrick Peterson, Bashaud Breeland and Mackensie Alexander -- are all on expiring deals, and Gardner's speed, ball skills and lockdown traits would help address a pass defense allowing 8.9 yards per attempt (27th in the NFL).
16. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)
Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa*
No-brainer here. No quarterback has been sacked more than Joe Burrow (41), which of course isn't what you want to see for your second-year franchise QB who already has a knee injury as a pro. Linderbaum anchors well and would help take the Bengals' interior line from among the NFL's worst to one of its best within a few years. Plus, he has good range at the second level, which would open things up more for running back Joe Mixon.
17. Denver Broncos (7-6)
Malik Willis, QB, Liberty*
In a division that includes Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, you need a QB who can create, push the ball downfield and win offensive shootouts. I'm not sure Teddy Bridgewater (a free agent after this season) is that guy. Like a handful of teams slotted above Denver here, the offseason will bring answers of whether Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and/or Deshaun Watson will be available, and the Broncos could certainly land one of those top-tier QBs. If not, Willis can extend plays, make tight-window throws with velocity and push the ball downfield. But there are some issues that require work in Willis' game; he threw 12 interceptions and took 50 sacks this season.
Willis would be Liberty's second-ever pick in the first three rounds (Pittsburgh took tight end Eric Green at No. 21 in 1990).
18. Cleveland Browns (7-6)
Drake London, WR, USC*
This is a steal. London had 130-plus receiving yards in six of eight games this season, and his 88 catches rank 12th in the nation -- despite the fact a fractured right ankle has kept him out since October. He can line up all over, threaten defenses with vertical speed, find his way open and come down with contested catches. The Browns' 59.0% completion percentage when targeting wide receivers is 28th in the NFL, and they have to get Baker Mayfield a playmaker to catch the pass game up to the run game's prowess a bit.
19. New Orleans Saints (6-7)
Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
The opinions on Ridder are all over the place. I've heard some scouts wonder if he is the best QB in the whole class, while others think he's more of a second-rounder. But Ridder would be in the perfect spot in New Orleans, able to work with coach Sean Payton and develop his mechanics and ball-placement consistency. The Saints don't necessarily have to go quarterback -- they have Taysom Hill, and Jameis Winston could return to New Orleans on a new deal following his torn ACL -- but Ridder would give them a guy to build around for the future. He has a strong arm and is a constant threat to tuck and run.
Alternatively, Ohio State receiver Garrett Wilson or Auburn cornerback Roger McCreary would instantly boost lacking units.
20. Philadelphia Eagles (via 7-6 IND)
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State*
The Eagles are projected to have three picks in the top 20, and we used the first two on defense (David Ojabo and Devin Lloyd). An NFL team has gone to the WR well in the first round in three consecutive drafts just once in the common draft era, per ESPN Stats & Information (Lions, 2003-05), but let's face it: Philadelphia still needs pass-catchers despite drafting Jalen Reagor and DeVonta Smith in the past two years. Wilson's body control in adjusting to the ball in the air is incredible, he has the wheels to make the big play downfield and he shows a nose for the end zone (12 TDs this season). Cornerback is another position to watch, especially with Auburn's Roger McCreary still out there.
21. Miami Dolphins (via 7-6 SF)
Ikem Ekwonu, OT/G, NC State*
Miami has used four Day 1 or 2 picks on the offensive line over the past three drafts. And yet, it is last in the league in pass block win rate by a good margin (44.6%). Ekwonu is a 320-pound mauler who is tough to get around and versatile enough to play tackle or guard. And his power would be welcomed by a run game that ranks 31st in yards per carry (3.3).
22. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa*
The Ravens' identity is based on running the football and physicality up front, and Penning embodies that. He pushes defenders off the ball and moves well for a massive 6-foot-7, 321-pound tackle. The Ravens dealt Orlando Brown Jr. in the offseason, Alejandro Villanueva (his replacement) is 33 years old, and Ronnie Stanley has been limited to seven games over the past two seasons because of ankle issues. And Baltimore has given up an NFL-high 47 sacks this season.
If Baltimore tends to offensive line issues in another way, the defense could also use reinforcements. Perhaps Georgia's Jordan Davis or Travon Walker would fit the bill.
23. Buffalo Bills (7-6)
Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn
The Bills have one of the better pass defenses this season, but they still need cornerback depth beyond Tre'Davious White -- whose absence has been felt since he suffered a season-ending knee injury. Levi Wallace and Taron Johnson are the team's next-best options, and Wallace is potentially going to hit free agency in March. Another excellent press corner, McCreary has 15 pass breakups and a pair of interceptions this season. He would help keep Buffalo among the best in the league in generating takeaways (26, tied for third).
24. Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)
Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
I originally looked at offensive tackle here. The Chargers aced last April's Rashawn Slater pick, and they could still stand to improve the right tackle spot to better protect Justin Herbert. Ohio State's Nicholas Petit-Frere is probably a bit too much of a reach, so L.A. might have to hold off until Round 2 there. Instead, let's fix up an underwhelming defensive tackle group. The Chargers have allowed 4.67 yards per rush and 18 rushing TDs, which each rank bottom five in the NFL. Davis is a 6-foot-6, 340-pound space-eater who is nearly impossible to move off his spot. He demands double-team attention and would be an upgrade in the middle of the line.
25. Detroit Lions (via 9-4 LAR)
Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina*
Four drafts have featured five first-round quarterbacks (1983, 1999, 2018 and 2021), but all four have included at least two top-10 picks. Here we have five Day 1 signal-callers for a second consecutive year, but all of them fall between picks Nos. 12 and 25. There will always be QB-needy teams, and while this class lacks a surefire franchise guy, it does have plenty of high-upside passers who could become just that. I actually like Howell a little more than Desmond Ridder. The UNC product reads the field well and shows good touch and timing on his throws.
Jared Goff's dead money would fall from $30.5 million in 2022 to $10 million in 2023 and $5 million in 2024, so I wouldn't be surprised if Detroit drafts someone like Howell at the end of the first round to secure the fifth-year option and lets him learn behind Goff for a year before handing over the keys.
26. Tennessee Titans (9-4)
Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson*
Is Harold Landry III back next season? I can't imagine the Titans let him go in free agency after 11 sacks in 13 games this year, but if they do, edge rusher has to be considered in this spot. Colorado State tight end Trey McBride also warrants attention for Tennessee. The Titans didn't fully maximize Jonnu Smith in their system before letting him walk last spring, but quarterback Ryan Tannehill would love McBride if they looked his way.
Tennessee took Caleb Farley and Kristian Fulton with early picks in the past two years, but cornerback remains a bit of a weakness. The Titans have allowed 30 passing plays of 25-plus yards, tied for the sixth most in the NFL. Booth's tape has impressed me, from his ability to run in phase with receivers to his excellent ball skills (three interceptions this year).
27. Dallas Cowboys (9-4)
Travon Walker, DE, Georgia*
Walker has been a big riser this fall, previously getting overshadowed by some of the other talents on Georgia's phenomenal defense. But his tape is outstanding, and I expect him to wow scouts at the combine with his workouts. He is versatile with the ability to play off the edge or on the interior, and he possesses the power to walk blockers back. Randy Gregory has been excellent for the Cowboys this year, but he is a looming free agent due for a payday. DeMarcus Lawrence will be 30 years old next season. And words can't describe the impact of rookie Micah Parsons, but remember that edge rusher isn't even his primary position. Bringing in a defensive end with the ability to flip inside will free Parsons up to play all over and be an even bigger issue for opponents.
28. Green Bay Packers (10-3)
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
The Packers' offense could look very different in 2022. That's not to say it will, but Aaron Rodgers has expressed the desire to move on from Green Bay, and receivers Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are primed to be free agents. Whether it's Rodgers or Jordan Love under center, and whether Adams is there in that No. 1 receiver role, the Packers have to find more weapons on offense. We've been screaming it from the rooftop for years. If Olave falls to them this late in the first round, the Packers have no excuses. The smooth route runner is an explosive accelerator off the line and has high-end ball skills. He can break open a game, as he did in four 100-plus-yard, multiple-TD outings this season.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (9-4)
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Dotson is undersized at 5-foot-11 and 184 pounds, but he is fast, crafty and sure-handed. Sound like anyone in the NFL? Kansas City has had plenty of success with 5-foot-10, 185-pound burner Tyreek Hill. The only Chiefs receivers currently signed past this season are Hill and Mecole Hardman, and considering the offensive drop-off this year, they could certainly look to replenish Patrick Mahomes' arsenal. Dotson caught 91 passes for 1,182 yards and 12 scores this season.
Additionally, the offensive line rebuild has worked -- the Chiefs have the league's third-highest pass block win rate (67.5%) -- but depth could be a problem going into 2022. Ohio State's Nicholas Petit-Frere or Central Michigan's Bernhard Raimann should get a closer look.
30. Arizona Cardinals (10-3)
Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida*
Robert Alford might not be back, and Byron Murphy Jr. had been more of a slot cornerback before this season. Elam's track speed and high-level instincts would boost that cornerback group out of the gate. Plus, he is scheme versatile and brings on-ball production, with 19 pass breakups and six interceptions over three seasons.
31. New England Patriots (9-4)
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas*
Burks to the Patriots would make it six receivers in the first round. According to ESPN Stats & Information, we've seen back-to-back drafts with at least five first-round WRs four times (2000-01, 2004-05, 2014-15, 2020-21), but we've never had three straight occasions. While this class doesn't match 2021's group in elite talent, it certainly has depth.
New England signed Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne in free agency this year, but it's hard to find a true No. 1 receiver on this roster. To help quarterback Mac Jones continue the impressive start to his career, the Pats should give him a big target outside who can come down with anything. That's Burks, who is 6-foot-3 and can adjust to off-target throws and pluck them out of the air. He isn't a burner, but he is a savvy route runner with 11 touchdown catches this season.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-3)
Cameron Thomas, DE, San Diego State*
ESPN's Football Power Index likes the Buccaneers as repeat Super Bowl champions, which means they'd again play caboose on the first round. Thomas has 10.5 sacks and 26 tackles for loss, and he'd help fill the void if the Buccaneers can't re-sign Jason Pierre-Paul and/or William Gholston. Thomas can play in various roles and disrupts with quickness and power.
With Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones II and Giovani Bernard all on expiring deals, Tampa Bay could think about running back here, too. As it stands, there are no first-round running backs, something that has happened only twice before (2013, 2014). Iowa State's Breece Hall is my highest ranked at the moment at No. 44 overall.