Free agency and trade buzz: Latest on Baker Mayfield and other QBs, teams ready to spend, the receiver market and more

It's that time of year again. The NFL's free-agent frenzy is here. That, of course, means terms like "legal tampering" and "guaranteed" will get thrown around. As of Monday, teams can officially begin talking with the agents of players with expiring contracts about signing new ones. And as of Wednesday at 4 p.m. ET, those signings can become official, as can trades like the one the Broncos made last week for Russell Wilson, or the Chargers for Khalil Mack, or the Commanders for Carson Wentz, or the Browns for Amari Cooper.

If recent history is any indication, the action should all be pretty well concentrated in the first couple of days, with a flood of signings and moves being reported before the league year even starts. It's a busy time of year in the NFL, and the groundwork for it all has been laid over the past few weeks. So with free agency just about set to open, here's a little bit of what Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler are hearing as they work to separate the facts from the tons and tons and tons of rumors.

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Could Baker Mayfield be on the move?

I don't know if the Cleveland Browns are going to make a move for a QB, but they've definitely been doing due diligence on potentially available veterans. I heard lots of rumblings in the latter part of this week about Cleveland making a trade for a quarterback and possibly shipping out Mayfield, either as part of the deal or in a separate deal. Mayfield's getting $18.858 million fully guaranteed this year, so if the QB the Browns would acquire is someone like Kirk Cousins ($35 million), Jimmy Garoppolo ($25 million) or even Deshaun Watson ($35 million), sending back Mayfield would offset some of the cost.

I don't know what will end up happening here, and obviously it's still very possible Mayfield is the Browns' starter in 2022, but I do know they've been poking around and discussing potential upgrades. Keep an eye on this one. -- Graziano

The Browns have committed to Mayfield publicly. Privately, they have, too -- but to a point. People who talked to the Browns at last week's NFL combine came away with the belief that only a big fish, once-in-a-lifetime opportunity could change that. The thinking at the time was Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers would fit that mold. But Watson would qualify as a pretty big fish, too. And Mayfield's reps understand this dynamic.

So while Mayfield is still, from my view, the favorite to start for Cleveland in 2022, an aggressive pursuit of Watson wouldn't shock. Does Watson want to go to Cleveland? I don't get the sense the Browns would be super high on his list, but they have a few selling points, including a good head coach (Kevin Stefanski) and players around him to win. -- Fowler

What's next with Deshaun Watson?

Some people around Watson have believed for a while now that if he avoided indictment in Friday's grand jury proceedings, which he did, the long-awaited trade that sends Watson out of Houston could happen soon thereafter. Now, that could be wishful thinking on their part. Watson still faces 22 separate lawsuits from women alleging inappropriate behavior and sexual assault, and he could face league discipline in the form of a suspension no matter how those get resolved. But teams have been calling Houston, and whatever happens with Watson, it seems very clear he won't be a member of the Texans' roster in 2022 as he was in 2021.

I've been told the Carolina Panthers are being extremely aggressive in their effort to get Watson, and they could be the team to watch if and when it's time for a deal to get done. The Panthers have done extensive background work on Watson's situation to try to get to a point where they're comfortable acquiring him.

Seattle has checked in on the situation, but most people I talk to don't expect the Seahawks to be seriously in the Watson mix. Philadelphia was interested last year but got the sense he didn't want to go there (Watson has a no-trade clause and can therefore dictate where he goes), so the Eagles are telling everyone they're all-in on Jalen Hurts. Would they jump back in on Watson if they got an indication he wanted to play for them? They do have three first-round picks this year to offer and could theoretically outbid anyone. And as I mentioned above, I'm not ruling out the possibility of the Browns taking a big swing here, either.

Watson is fully guaranteed $35 million in salary this year, and on the fifth day of the league year (i.e., a little more than a week from now), his $37 million in 2023 salary and bonuses becomes fully guaranteed as well. If he's suspended by the league for any period of time, the guarantees can be voided. But an acquiring team can't count on that happening, and given what it's likely going to cost to get Watson, it probably wouldn't seek to lower his salary anyway. -- Graziano

Now that trade talks will intensify, the conversation begins with Watson's no-trade clause. Teams know Watson and agent David Mulugheta hold that major card. Sure, the Eagles, for example, can offer all three of their three first-round picks this year plus veteran players and more. But if Watson doesn't want to play in Philly -- which sounds like something we have both heard for a while -- then that trade package is a nonstarter.

Part of Houston's leverage came in 2021, when Watson's low salary ($10.54 million) allowed the Texans to stash him. That becomes infinitely harder to do with Watson's salary ballooning to $35 million in 2022. Maybe they are willing to bear that for a few more weeks or months, especially because the Texans will inevitably want to negotiate with multiple teams to drive up the price. That's a problem if Watson will approve only one team.

I spoke with someone in the Houston organization who said the Texans are expected to be much more receptive to trade discussions. GM Nick Caserio was hesitant, or even not responsive, to inquiries at times in the past. That doesn't mean Caserio will now expeditiously look to deal Watson. He's methodical by nature, and the Texans purposely left enough cap space to carry Watson's cap hit into the new league year. But urgency has heightened. And the Panthers are ready. I'm told they are indeed "very interested" in Watson, as they have been for a while, and our own David Newton reports they will make an aggressive offer.

That's cautious optimism because of Watson's clause. Carolina seemed like Watson's backup option to Miami last year, a viable fallback if a deal with the Dolphins fell through. Now that Miami is out, the Panthers will likely see a clear runway. I'm told they are at least confident in their chances, with good young players on defense and playmakers on offense. There's trade buzz surrounding running back Christian McCaffrey, but I'm told the Panthers would be even more inclined to keep CMC around with Watson in the fold, to maximize his ability to win.

One NFC exec said, "I think Tampa is a major threat." The Buccaneers have been on Watson's radar as he looks for the best chance to win, along with young dynamic players and a head coach who gels with him. -- Fowler

Is Kirk Cousins a trade option?

Cousins has one year and a fully guaranteed $35 million left on his contract. I don't get the sense that Minnesota has made a big effort to extend him and knock down that cap number, though they could still do that if they decide or need. New Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell worked with Cousins in Washington and is believed to be a fan of his game, and Cousins has done the lame-duck year thing before, so it's not essential that they get an extension done. But if they don't, you have to think they'll at least look into the possibility of trading him. -- Graziano

This situation is fascinating, because my sense out of the combine is the Vikings are legitimately torn on what to do with a good but second-tier quarterback. If they extend him -- which would most likely require a raise -- they are tying a large percentage of their salary cap to a player who hasn't gotten them over the proverbial hump. If they don't extend him, that $45 million cap hit is problematic and would necessitate big cuts and cost-saving moves. And if they trade him, they don't have a definitive answer at quarterback for a first-year head coach.

But one league source made a great point on this: The last regime had to try to save their jobs the last time they negotiated with Cousins. The new one does not. -- Fowler

Other quarterback movement brewing?

We've known for a while now that this could be an offseason of unprecedented high-profile quarterback movement. And while Aaron Rodgers didn't shake loose, Russell Wilson and Carson Wentz have already changed teams (or will, as of 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday), and there's likely to be more action on the QB front. Here's what I'm hearing on a few more of these situations:

• The name I'm hearing the most as the Indianapolis Colts' answer at quarterback is free-agent Marcus Mariota, who has been Derek Carr's backup with the Raiders over the past couple of seasons. There are also people who think Minnesota's Cousins could end up in Indianapolis, though it's unclear if Cousins is going anywhere.

• Jameis Winston still seems like the most likely New Orleans Saints starting quarterback for 2022, but I'm not ruling out a Teddy Bridgewater reunion there if Winston signs elsewhere.

• It's true that new New York Giants coach Brian Daboll, who was Buffalo's offensive coordinator last year before getting the Giants' job, has at least some interest in bringing Mitchell Trubisky with him to East Rutherford as a backup who could potentially be the Ryan Tannehill to Daniel Jones' Mariota, but it also seems likely that some team (Steelers?) would be able to offer more money, plus a clearer path to a starting job, than the Giants can. -- Graziano

Mariota is looking for the chance to start again and is open to being a 1B option as a potential bridge starter for a draft pick, I'm told. He could get his shot in Indy, as Dan pointed out. Another option is San Francisco, assuming it trades Jimmy Garoppolo. Mariota could start games while Trey Lance continues to develop, knowing the two have similar skill sets as mobile quarterbacks with run-pass option ability.

The Saints have wanted Winston back, as he is well-liked in the locker room and helped New Orleans win five of its first seven games last year before tearing his ACL. But he is open to other possibilities and plans to test free agency barring new developments. Winston will have multiple suitors, and some execs believe he's a top option on the free-agent market.

Houston is open to Tyrod Taylor returning but likely as a backup to Davis Mills. The Texans had a positive experience with Taylor, who is a total pro and helped Houston win two games in his six starts. Based on Houston's lackluster roster, that's pretty good. -- Fowler

Jet spending

The New York Jets are among the most fascinating teams in free agency because even though they might be a year away based on their young players, they also need to show tangible progress in GM Joe Douglas' fourth year. Expect them to come away with a few significant signings. Things usually begin up front with the Jets, who are believed to be in on center Ryan Jensen and defensive tackle D.J. Jones. Tight end is also a point of emphasis, though Dalton Schultz, who would have been a top target, is franchise-tagged in Dallas. That could alter plans. Safety is a viable option. Either way, expect the Jets to walk out of March with roster improvements. -- Fowler

Following up on that, Jeremy, I was told this week to expect the Jets to spend big on one of the top cornerbacks in free agency. The fact that New England didn't franchise J.C. Jackson and the Bucs didn't franchise Carlton Davis indicates that teams don't expect the cornerback market to be overly lucrative this year. But I was told the Jets seem like the one team that might break the bank for one. -- Graziano

Monitoring the Cowboys' cap situation

Teams are watching the Cowboys closely, believing that Dallas has a lot of moves to make to get under the cap. They already traded receiver Amari Cooper to do so. The team is expressing confidence that it can keep edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence, whose scheduled cap hit for this year is $27 million. The Cowboys approached Lawrence about taking a pay cut from his $19 million salary and were rebuffed, but there's still hope they can reach some sort of agreement with him that keeps him on the team at a lower cap number. If not, he could be a late entry into the free-agent market in a few weeks.

A couple of people with other teams told me this week they think the Cowboys might have to make a surprise move on the offensive line. We heard La'el Collins trade rumblings this week, and it's possible something like that happens. But trading Collins would save only $1.3 million against this year's cap. Cutting Collins and designating him a post-June 1 cut would save $10 million on this year's cap -- a more cap-beneficial option. It's worth noting that $6.5 million of Collins' $10 million salary becomes fully guaranteed on March 22, so cutting him after that date would still require the Cowboys to pay him.

Dallas could save some cap space with a Tyron Smith restructure -- something that has become sort of an annual rite since he signed his contract years ago. But Smith has missed 20 games over the past two seasons and hasn't played a full season since 2015. You wonder how much longer the Cowboys feel comfortable floating money into future years if he's not going to be reliably healthy.

The contract that really hurts the Cowboys isn't quarterback Dak Prescott's but rather running back Ezekiel Elliott's. Elliott doesn't miss games (he has missed just three for rest/injury reasons in his six-year career), but he played hurt for much of last season and wasn't his old self. The problem is, they absolutely cannot cut him. His $12.4 million salary for this year is fully guaranteed. Even if they made him a post-June 1 cut, they'd have to carry the same $18.22 million cap hit they'll carry if he's on the team. For perspective's sake: They would actually save more money by cutting Tony Pollard -- the guy everyone seems to want to take on more of a share of the backfield -- than they would by cutting Elliott. They can move on from Elliott next offseason, but not this year. Their cuts have to come from elsewhere. -- Graziano

With Cooper's $20 million salary now off Dallas' books, the Cowboys will get to work on Collins' trade market. The Cowboys and Collins' camp met midweek and decided he would likely be released if they can't find a trade partner. The Cincinnati Bengals are one to watch here. They know they must address several pieces along the offensive line but don't want to overspend on one player. The good news for them is Collins comes with a reasonable $10 million salary and $15.25 million cap hit. Terence Steele would slide into the starting right tackle spot for Dallas. -- Fowler

What to expect from the Giants

More and more, I'm getting the sense that Saquon Barkley won't be on the Giants in 2022. The team is open to trading him, as GM Joe Schoen indicated at the combine. And while his $7.2 million salary isn't the top target in New York's cap-saving efforts, it would help. The Giants' hope is that a contending team with a need for one more explosive player on offense (Buffalo or Arizona?) might offer a midround pick for Barkley. -- Graziano

Schoen has been active in restructuring contracts, often at lesser pay. But in the case of cornerback James Bradberry, the belief from some around the league is the Giants will be able to swing a trade for him. His $21.9 million cap hit is problematic, but quality corners are hard to find. One logical spot is Las Vegas, where defensive coordinator Patrick Graham knows him well. -- Fowler

Receivers cashing in

Allen Robinson II is the beneficiary of Mike Williams' $20 million-per-year deal with the Los Angeles Chargers and Chris Godwin's $19.2 million franchise tag in Tampa Bay. Those numbers lift the receiver market, and Robinson could be looking at up to $18 million annually on a new deal. Cleveland's trade for Amari Cooper takes the Browns out of the big-money receiver market for Robinson and others. But the Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriots are expected to be looking.

JuJu Smith-Schuster will have options this week, starting with a potential re-signing with Pittsburgh. The Eagle, Chiefs, Bears and Jaguars also could be involved come Monday's tampering period, I'm told. Additionally, the Raiders and Patriots have interest in vertical threat DJ Chark Jr. -- Fowler

Pass-rushers on the way?

A crowded free-agency pool will welcome a few more big names in the coming days. Sources said Kansas City's Frank Clark is expected to be released, traded or have his contract restructured in the coming days. His $26.3 million cap hit is untenable for the Chiefs. Watch for San Francisco as a potential option here. The 49ers will be looking for a speed rusher to help Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead.

Za'Darius Smith has been a prime candidate for release from Green Bay for a while now, too. The Packers have decided to pause most business while resolving Aaron Rodgers' contract situation. Once they have clarity there, Smith will most likely have a path to free agency. And speaking of the Chiefs, he would be an ideal fit there to replace Clark.

Multiple teams have inquired about Vikings defensive end Danielle Hunter, whose $18 million roster bonus is due on March 20. -- Fowler

Other notes heading into free agency

Fowler

• Atlanta has made progress in efforts to extend linebacker Foyesade Oluokun, who is one of the biggest risers in free agency. The Falcons are pushing to re-sign him before Wednesday, and he should cost well above $10 million per year. Oluokun was highly productive for the Atlanta defense with a league-leading 192 combined tackles, two sacks, three interceptions and six pass deflections.

• Don't be completely shocked if Drew Lock is the Seahawks' starting quarterback next season. Sure, they could be in the mix for Watson or others. They are also studying quarterbacks who are free agents and others who might be on the market. But I'm told the team did not consider Lock a throw-in in the Wilson trade, but rather a viable fallback option. There's a belief among some with Seattle that some of Lock's issues in Denver were a byproduct of a revolving door of offensive coordinators and a defensive-minded head coach in Vic Fangio. Seattle is in the process of deciding whether it needs to go all-in for Watson or bet on coach Pete Carroll's ability to build a winner from the ground up. If it chooses the latter, it might prefer Lock.

• Bears guard James Daniels is becoming a hot name of late. I talked to multiple teams who were high on him due to age (24), positional flexibility (can play guard or center) and mobility. Guards should do pretty well in this class -- many teams need a good one -- and Daniels is no exception.

• Receiver Michael Gallup's deal with the Cowboys has been in the works for a while and should get done soon, but there could be a hangup over the number of years. The rumored totals out of the combine were five years for $55 million. Dallas likes to do those longer deals. If Gallup wants shorter, then something will have to give before Monday's tampering period.

• The Seahawks are attempting to re-sign safety Quandre Diggs, who likes it in Seattle and would be open to stay. With Diggs recovering from a broken leg, the Seahawks know his medical situation better than anyone. Diggs is the ideal counterpart to Jamal Adams, who needs a safety valve behind him as he works the line of scrimmage.

Graziano

• The Baltimore Ravens are expected to be looking hard at offensive linemen, especially if they lose center Bradley Bozeman, who's expected to be a popular free-agent target. But remember last year, when the Broncos cut tackle Ja'Wuan James after he injured himself working out away from the team facility? The Ravens signed him to a two-year deal that paid him a minimum salary in 2021 but pays him $3 million this year. That could turn out to be a sneaky solution for them at right tackle.

• The James deal also provides something of a two-year blueprint for the Los Angeles Rams if they want to re-sign wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., who suffered a torn ACL in the Super Bowl and might not play in 2022 as a result.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers center Ryan Jensen still looks like a free agent who will do very well, with multiple teams including the Jets, Bengals and Ravens potentially interested. Tampa Bay has been working to try to get a deal done with Jensen before he hits the market this week, but it's unclear whether they can get it done in time.