Free agency is all about value. There's a range of players available from good to, well, not so good, but the key is finding those whose true forecasted value is less than what the market will bear for them. That's the hope, anyway.
With only days remaining before free agency commences, let's find free agents whose reputations either over or underrate them. We'll tackle one of each by position and, as always, I'll rely heavily on our quantitative metrics largely from ESPN and NFL Next Gen Stats to help in our player evaluation.
Let's dive in.
Quarterback
Overrated: Andy Dalton
2022 team: Saints | Age entering 2023 season: 35
Ironically, Dalton is here despite putting up a 50.7 QBR in 2022 with the Saints, his best rating since 2018. But that is what's concerning. He's 35 and played poorly the three seasons before last year. If I'm looking for a backup, I'd rather have Sam Darnold, who is roughly the same in terms of mean expectation but still possesses a sliver of upside.
Underrated: Teddy Bridgewater
2022 team: Dolphins | Age entering 2023 season: 30
Everyone looking for a fringe starter wants Jacoby Brissett -- and rightfully so, as I'd pick him first among the fringe starter group, too. But Bridgewater is not that far behind. His 2022 performance wasn't great (47.5 QBR in five games with Dolphins), but I think it would be a mistake to overemphasize the 95 action plays he had this past season, particularly because he's only 30. If we look at the past three seasons, Bridgewater's QBR is 54.7, only slightly trailing Brissett's 57.8.
Running Back
Overrated: David Montgomery
2022 team: Bears | Age entering 2023 season: 26
Montgomery is a name because he has gotten the workload, but all metrics indicate he wasn't even the best running back on the Bears last season -- and it wasn't close. Montgomery recorded minus-0.1 rush yards over expectation per carry last season, according to an NFL Next Gen Stats metric that determines expected yards based on the positioning and movement of all 22 players at the time of handoff. It was the third time in four years that Montgomery fell short of expectation. He couldn't blame the blocking, either, because teammate Khalil Herbert led all running backs who had more than 100 carries with 1.4 rush yards over expectation per carry. That's a massive difference and would have me looking elsewhere in free agency for a running back.
Underrated: D'Onta Foreman
2022 team: Panthers | Age entering 2023 season: 27
Foreman broke out in 2022, making the most of a heavier volume of carries. He recorded 0.8 rush yards over expectation per carry, fifth highest among running backs with at least 100 carries and the most among untagged free agents (Tony Pollard was at 1.3). It's just one season and he only matched rushing expectations in 2021, so it's possible last year was a fluke, but he'll come cheap and I'd rather bet on him than, say, Montgomery.
Wide Receiver
Overrated: Parris Campbell
2022 team: Colts | Age entering 2023 season: 26
Campbell, a 2019 second-round pick, was finally able to stay on the field for a full season and recorded 623 receiving yards in a lackluster Colts offense. Teams might be intrigued because he has played in only 32 career games, but the 2022 numbers leave plenty to be desired. He managed just 1.1 yards per route run, and his receiver tracking metrics triple-slash of 36/42/50 (open/catch/YAC) indicates the problem in Indianapolis went beyond quarterback play.
Underrated: Jakobi Meyers
2022 team: Patriots | Age entering 2023 season: 26
Meyers is high on every free agency list because of the dearth of receiving talent available. But he's legitimately a very skilled player whose impact goes beyond the box score.
He gets open. From 2020 to 2022, Meyers' earned open scores of 99 (not a typo), 77 and 66, respectively. His 2.4 yards per route run in 2020 ranked 13th as a second-year undrafted player, and he still recorded a strong 2.0 yards per route last season in New England's struggling offense (he made up for his drop in open score with better hands and a career-high 74 catch score). He'll get paid, for sure. But the underlying metrics suggest he has higher production upside than what he has shown so far in New England.
Tight End
Overrated: Mike Gesicki
2022 team: Dolphins | Age entering 2023 season: 27
It's possible this pick might backfire and that Gesicki's poor 2022 was completely a product of a coach Mike McDaniel scheme that didn't prioritize him. But it's hard to ignore the numbers: not just the 1.1 yards per route run (which ranked 25th of 28 qualifying tight ends), but also poor receiver tracking metrics numbers that are highlighted by a 28 overall score. That was a career low, to be fair, but the player-tracking stats have never loved Gesicki. His open score has yet to go above 40, and he never had an overall score above 38. Tight ends naturally have lower scores than wide receivers, but still, that isn't great.
Underrated: Austin Hooper
2022 team: Titans | Age entering 2023 season: 28
I think of Hooper as a disappointing free agent signing for the Browns in 2020 after a successful run in Atlanta. But the pendulum has swung too far, and he might be a nice find for a team searching for tight end help. He recorded just 444 receiving yards in a run-first Titans offense last year, but Hooper still yielded 1.5 yards per route run, ranking 14th among tight ends.
He also scored a career-high 57 in overall score in the receiver tracking metrics, fueled by a decent open score (56) and solid catch score (66). Plus, he's only 28.
Offensive Tackle
Overrated: Kaleb McGary
2022 team: Falcons | Age entering 2023 season: 28
There's no way I'm paying up for a tackle whose weakness is pass protection. McGary's 85% pass block win rate ranked 47th out of 64 qualifying tackles this year, and that was the best number of his career. There's disagreement about his run blocking -- PFF graded him as one of the best run-blocking tackles, while his run block win rate (68%) was one of the worst. But even if it is a strength, pass protection is a tackle's more important function and shouldn't be sacrificed in a player who costs real money in free agency.
Underrated: Andrew Wylie
2022 team: Chiefs | Age entering 2023 season: 29
There are quite a few players we could put in this spot: Cameron Fleming, Jermaine Eluemunor and Kelvin Beachum all are mediocre pass protectors who shouldn't cost too much. I think Wylie's reputation takes a hit from Patrick Mahomes holding the ball longer than average and inviting some pressure (knowing he can almost always avoid a sack). Pass block win rate, which simply measures if an offensive lineman sustains his block for 2.5 seconds, is a fan. Wylie ranked ninth in the metric last year, though it's worth noting he was playing next to an elite interior offensive line. Still, Wylie can get the job done and should be available for cheap.
Interior Offensive Line
Overrated: Connor McGovern
2022 team: Jets | Age entering 2023 season: 30
Over the past four seasons playing center for the Broncos and Jets, McGovern has ranked as above average in pass block win rate and run block win rate just once -- both came in 2021, when he was 11th and 10th in the two categories, respectively. Last season he settled back in as a below-average-at-best center, ranking 24th and 30th in the two metrics. The Jets, who will be looking to upgrade their offensive line this offseason, should look elsewhere when it comes to the center position.
Underrated: Will Hernandez
2022 team: Cardinals | Age entering 2023 season: 27
The Cardinals signed Hernandez to a cheap, one-year deal this time last year, and he promptly put up the best pass block win rate numbers of his career. His 95% PBWR at guard ranked seventh at the position and came with average double-team help. His run-blocking numbers were solid, too. He wasn't as good in past seasons, so there's a chance 2022 was a one-year blip, but he should be quite affordable for someone who was as good in pass protection as he was last year.
Edge Rusher
Overrated: Yannick Ngakoue
2022 team: Colts | Age entering 2023 season: 28
Don't let the 9.5 sacks last season and 10 the year before fool you -- Ngakoue isn't the player he used to be. His pass rush win rate at edge has declined from 21% to 20% to 18% to 14% over the past four seasons, the last of which rated him as middling. Considering that he's one of the worst run defenders at the position -- his 18% run stop win rate at edge ranked 38th out of 43 qualifiers -- it's a rough combination.
Underrated: Ogbonnia Okoronkwo
2022 team: Texans | Age entering 2023 season: 28
Okoronkwo recorded only five sacks in 2022, but that came while playing just 44% of snaps -- which was actually a career high. Given more opportunity, Okoronkwo could be a productive edge defender, with 19% and 31% pass rush and run stop win rates, respectively (which ranked 13th and fourth at the position). Put him on a better team and the sacks will come. Arden Key gets an honorable mention in this spot, too.
Defensive Tackle
Overrated: Dalvin Tomlinson
2022 team: Vikings | Age entering 2023 season: 29
Tomlinson will make money this offseason, but the numbers don't see him as a player who's a major difference-maker. He has never recorded more than 3.5 sacks in a season, and his 7% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle is below average -- despite the fact that he was doubled a less-than-average 53% of the time when pass rushing from the interior. His run stop win rate was a shade above average last year.
Underrated: Matt Ioannidis
2022 team: Panthers | Age entering 2023 season: 29
We're going way down the board in a deep free agent defensive tackle class, but Ioannidis is going to make for a nice value signing. He put up just one sack last season, but his 16% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle ranked one spot ahead of fellow defensive tackle Dre'Mont Jones, who will get paid substantially more.
That win rate isn't an every-year thing for Ioannidis -- he was at 10% the year prior -- but he recorded 8.5 sacks in 2019. So we're talking about a player who has shown he can get to the quarterback, even if it has been a while.
Linebacker
Overrated: Germaine Pratt
2022 team: Bengals | Age entering 2023 season: 27
Pratt's not bad but fails to stand out in a crowded off-ball linebacker class. His run stop win rate of 30% last season was a bit below average for a linebacker and has been consistent over the past three seasons. His coverage numbers were pretty strong, with an exceptional target EPA this past year and better than average yards per coverage snap. But it's a one-year breakout -- he hasn't been nearly as good in coverage in the past. Again, this isn't an overwhelming indictment, but Pratt falls behind players who offer more value according to the numbers.
Underrated: T.J. Edwards
2022 team: Eagles | Age entering 2023 season: 27
Every number suggests strong play from Edwards in 2022. His 0.6 yards per coverage snap allowed was eighth lowest among linebackers with at least 250 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. His 40% run stop win rate ranked seventh among players at the position. And his 38% pass rush win rate was very good in a tiny sample, too. He had the benefit of great teammates around him, which might have been a factor, but Edwards showed serious ability last year according to the stats.
Cornerback
Overrated: Jonathan Jones
2022 team: Patriots | Age entering 2023 season: 29
Jones had a solid year and is certainly worth a look for corner-needy teams. But his 1.1 yards per coverage snap allowed was both a career-best (outside of a tiny sample in 2016) and merely average for an outside corner (he played more in the slot, where yards per coverage snap averages are slightly higher, in previous seasons). He also was targeted on 18.5% of coverage snaps, higher than the 17.1% average. Whoever signs him will be buying high.
Underrated: Bryce Callahan
2022 team: Chargers | Age entering 2023 season: 31
He's a 31-year-old slot corner with an injury history, sure. But Callahan is still a valuable player for a defense when healthy -- he allowed 1.1 yards per coverage snap last season, fifth best among slot corners with at least 250 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Plus, he has a history of playing even better. In 2017, 2018 and 2020, he allowed 0.8 yards per coverage snap or better. At such a high variance position year to year, rolling the dice on a player who at one time has played at a very high level is a worthwhile gamble.
Safety
Overrated: Marcus Epps
2022 team: Eagles | Age entering 2023 season: 27
Safety is the hardest position in football to quantify, so I'm less confident here than anywhere else. Epps is a good run defender, ranking in the top 10 in run stop win rate among DBs with at least 50 plays with a win or a loss last season. Last season, Epps was targeted 10% of the time and allowed 1.0 yards per coverage snap, both higher than average for safeties, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And his plus-26 EPA allowed was the second worst among players at the position. Again, I'll caution: Nearest defender numbers are particularly dicey with safeties, but Epps' have been consistent over the past two seasons and are a bit of a red flag.
Underrated: Donovan Wilson
2022 team: Cowboys | Age entering 2023 season: 28
Wilson is a strong run-defending safety -- he ranked seventh in run stop win rate among DBs with at least 50 wins or losses -- and frequently plays close to the line of scrimmage. But his coverage numbers this past season were strong, with only 0.3 yards per coverage snap allowed (well below what the average safety allows) and minus-14 EPA allowed, per NFL Next Gen Stats. All the caveats I mentioned in Epps' section apply, but Wilson is worth a longer look because of them.