While it might feel like a lifetime ago, it has been only a few months since the NFL was engaged in a referendum on the value of running backs. While the discussion stretched to rookie first-round picks such as Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs and veteran stars including Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey, the primary conversation surrounded eight backs, all of whom were looking for new contracts around the same time.
At the halfway point of the season, now seems like a good time to check in on those backs and update the conversation we were having about them during the offseason. What have they done after getting back in the lineup? Are they living up to expectations? And what does their performance tell us about what happens next offseason?
I'll go back by back, starting with the two players who were hoping to turn their franchise tags into long-term contracts.
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Saquon Barkley | Dalvin Cook
Austin Ekeler | Ezekiel Elliott
Leonard Fournette | Kareem Hunt
Josh Jacobs | Jonathan Taylor
What could the 2024 market look like?
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
Contract situation: Playing on the one-year franchise tag ($10.1 million)
Forgive Barkley if he needs a rest. The past two weeks have been exhausting. With Tyrod Taylor and Daniel Jones both getting injured in consecutive weeks, the Giants have been forced to turn to third-string quarterback Tommy DeVito. Barkley has been called into duty for 58 touches over that two-week span, including 36 carries in the overtime loss to the Jets in Week 8.
This has been a wildly disappointing season for the 2-7 Giants, and Barkley hasn't been immune to those issues. He has averaged 4.0 yards per carry, down from 4.4 per attempt a year ago. He also missed three games with a high ankle sprain, the second time he has battled that injury in the NFL. The 2022 season was only his second full campaign across his six pro seasons.
Has Barkley suffered while playing behind a Giants offensive line battered by injuries and a passing attack that hasn't intimidated a single defensive coordinator? No question. According to NFL Next Gen Stats and their model for running back production, the average back would only be expected to gain 3.8 yards per carry with Barkley's opportunities, which is the seventh-toughest mark for any back with at least 100 carries this season.
An average back would have expected to gain 466 yards on Barkley's carries, and he has instead gained 502. He deserves plaudits for getting more than an average back in the same situations, but given how easy it should be to find "average" backs, the Giants are probably expecting more than 36 extra yards across 126 attempts from a franchise runner. He had 115 rush yards over expectation (RYOE) across 295 carries last season.
The bigger problem has been Barkley's performance with regards to moving the chains. Last season, he generated 64 first downs when a league-average back would have picked up 62. This season, he has only mustered 21, when a typical back would have picked up 29. That gap of eight first downs is the second-worst figure in the league; there's only player who has fewer first downs over expectation, and we'll get to him in a minute.
One of those plays came up against the Jets, when Barkley could have sealed the game by converting a third-and-3 for a first down. He was only able to muster two yards on a play in which the model expected him to net three. The Giants ended up facing a fourth-and-1, and, well, you know what happened next.
Barkley made an impact in the passing game in previous seasons, but that hasn't been the case in 2023. Across 124 routes run, he has been targeted 29 times and turned those into 22 receptions for 110 yards. He has scored twice as a receiver, which is helpful, but he's averaging 0.89 yards per route this season. That ranks 22nd among the 36 backs who have run at least 100 routes.
Should some of the blame there be put on the underwhelming options around Barkley? Of course, but it's also fair to argue he's expected to transcend the offense around him. Most of the evidence we have suggests he has played like an average-or-worse back this season.
What could happen in 2024: It's unclear whether Barkley would have had a significant trade market at the Nov. 1 deadline, in part because the Giants reportedly told Barkley they weren't going to trade him to another team. While that was a small blessing for Giants season-ticket holders who would have to watch the league's worst offense without its best player for the remainder of the season, he's set to play out the string for a team that appears to be going nowhere.
The one-year deal Barkley eventually signed over the summer doesn't prevent the Giants from franchising him again in 2024, but the front office also didn't seem too interested in handing him a second tag as part of a multiyear deal this summer. A second tag would cost the Giants $12.1 million next year.
Unless he dramatically turns things around over the second half of 2023, it's tough to imagine the organization would change its mind and give Barkley a multiyear guarantee next offseason, so if he wants that sort of security, he will likely have to wait until 2025 or hope the Giants don't use the tag on him again this spring.
RB Saquon Barkley sits down with ESPN to discuss his contract negotiations with the Giants and desire to "create a legacy" with the team.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
Contract situation: Playing on an adjusted one-year franchise tag ($11.8 million)
After refusing to sign his franchise tag for most of the summer, Jacobs eventually agreed to terms in late August on a one-year deal worth $11.8 million to rejoin the Raiders. Coming off a career season and a league-high 393 touches in 2022, getting him some extra rest through training camp might not have seemed like the worst thing for Las Vegas as it prepared for its first season with Jimmy Garoppolo under center.
Jacobs has looked more rusty than rested. He has been one of the least-efficient backs in all of football. He scored two touchdowns in Sunday's blowout win over the Giants and set a season-high for rushing yardage, but it took him 26 carries to gain 98 yards. In all, he is averaging 3.2 yards per carry, the second-worst mark for a back with at least 100 carries.
Unlike Barkley, the advanced metrics only make Jacobs' case look worse. While his average carry would only be expected to gain 3.7 yards given his blocking, he has generated minus-82 RYOE across his 159 carries. That ties him with Rachaad White of the Bucs for the worst mark in football. Jacobs has also come in nine first downs below expectation, which ranks last in the league.
One thing is notably missing from Jacobs' profile: big plays. This probably shouldn't be a surprise. Between 2020 and 2021, he didn't have a single gain of 30 yards or more as a runner or receiver. In 2022, though, he had five gains of 30-plus yards on those 393 touches, including an 86-yarder to walk off the Seahawks in overtime. It looked like he had newfound acceleration and burst in the open field.
In 2023, Jacobs has failed to turn any of his 187 touches into a 30-plus-yard gain. There's nothing innately important about that round number, but it's an example of how the big plays have been missing from his profile. Last season, he had 37 carries in which he gained five or more RYOE, which meant he picked up significantly more yardage than an average back about once every nine rush attempts. This season, he has five such plays on 159 carries, which means he's breaking through for a notable gain about once every 32 attempts.
Again, correlation isn't causation, but Jacobs' 340-carry workload from a year ago is 67 more carries beyond what he had absorbed in any of his prior pro campaigns. It was also his first complete season, as he had missed six games across his first three years. There's no magic-bullet number that teams can avoid if they're hoping to keep their players healthy, but we typically don't see backs absorb that sort of pounding in the modern game and sustain their prior level of play, with Derrick Henry as a spectacular exception for a couple of seasons.
What makes the possibility of tired legs so difficult to diagnose is what Jacobs has done as a receiver. He has been pleasantly productive catching the ball, as his 1.5 yards per route run ranks seventh among backs with 100 routes or more. He was 14th out of 32 backs with a 200-route minimum last season, so this is a step in the right direction. He also has done that with three different quarterbacks under center, as the Raiders have cycled through Garoppolo, Aidan O'Connell and Brian Hoyer.
Jacobs' growth from a nonfactor in the passing game into a valuable receiver is exciting, but it has been tough to watch his value in the running game crater. None of the other Raiders backs have gotten enough work to evaluate whether they're playing much better than the starter, but the traditional metrics and the Next Gen Stats figures paint Jacobs as a major disappointment, even when accounting for his line play.
What could happen in 2024: Like Barkley, it appears the Raiders weren't willing to hand Jacobs an extension coming off a career year. Unlike Barkley, though, Jacobs' one-year deal makes him an even more expensive proposition: A second franchise tag would cost $14.2 million in 2024, which might be prohibitive given his lack of production on the ground this season.
On the other hand, with Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler out in Las Vegas, there will be a different front office making the key decisions. The decision to avoid giving Jacobs a long-term deal after an outlier season looks like one of the few smart choices that the regime made during its time in the desert, but interim coach Antonio Pierce and interim GM Champ Kelly might see Jacobs as a future building block.
Dalvin Cook, New York Jets
Contract situation: Signed a one-year, $5.8 million deal in August
There was always a disconnect between Cook's market and his reputation as one of the league's best backs. The Vikings weren't able to find a trade partner interested in acquiring him on his existing deal, leading them to cut the four-time Pro Bowler in June. He languished on the market for two months before signing a one-year deal with the Jets containing $5.8 million in guarantees. The deal had $1.6 million in additional incentives if he ran for 1,250 yards, gained 1,500 yards from scrimmage or helped the team win a playoff game.
Things haven't gone as planned for the Jets, who have been plagued by injuries on offense. Cook has been healthy, but he hasn't been effective. The 28-year-old has turned his 43 carries into 121 yards, an average of 2.8 yards per attempt. He has caught 10 of the 11 passes thrown to him, but for a total of only 47 yards. He has been a sub-replacement level back this season.
Offensive line injuries haven't helped, but unlike with Barkley and Jacobs, we can see what other backs have done within this offense in 2023. Breece Hall has averaged 5.2 yards per carry while struggling with the same offensive line and passing game issues Cook has dealt with, and that has come while the second-year back is recovering from a torn ACL. With Hall getting healthier and Cook struggling, the latter's role in the offense has disappeared; Cook played 50% of the snaps in the opening-week win over the Bills, but his snap share has fallen in each of the ensuing weeks, landing at 9% in Monday's loss to the Chargers.
Cook suggested he was interested in a fresh start after being dropped to third on the running back depth chart, but the structure of his deal made it difficult to find a trade partner at the deadline. His contract pays him just over $262,000 for every week he's on the roster and an additional $70,588 for every week he's active, meaning an acquiring team would have owed Cook $3.3 million over the rest of the season. That wasn't going to be palatable for a player who has looked lost.
What could happen in 2024: It would be a surprise if Cook landed any sort of significant guarantee to sign with a new team; he's probably looking at one-year deals with partial guarantees to play somewhere next season.
Ezekiel Elliott, New England Patriots
Contract situation: Signed a one-year, $3 million deal in August
Signing on the same day as Cook, Elliott's deal had just $1.1 million in guarantees with bonuses for playing time and total yards. The hope was that he would offer up his reliably solid pass protection with power running to take some of the workload off Rhamondre Stevenson.
Depending on how you view different metrics, Elliott has probably lived up to those expectations. His numbers aren't overwhelming, as he has turned 73 carries into 277 yards and 20 first downs, but the longtime Cowboys back has been far more productive than his younger counterpart. Elliott has been a slightly below-average back, generating minus-0.4 RYOE per carry while racking up one first down over expectation.
Stevenson is also at minus-0.4 RYOE per carry, but that's only after breaking off a 64-yard run against the Commanders on Sunday; he was at minus-1.0 RYOE through Week 8. It's no surprise Stevenson would derive more of his value than Elliott from being explosive, but the younger back has come in seven first downs short of expectation this season. Neither player has turned the New England offense into anything you would want to watch on a weekly basis, as Mac Jones & Co. rank 30th in expected points added (EPA) per play this season.
What could happen in 2024: Elliott is not going to be the lead back in an offense, but he could be a useful second back or lesser half of a rotation as a short-yardage option and pass-blocker. He should land another one-year deal for a similar salary.
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns
Contract situation: Signed a one-year, $1.4 million deal in September
There wasn't much of a free agent market for Hunt, who disappointed in 2022, averaging 3.8 yards per carry and 6.0 yards per catch. He made it to the beginning of the season without a deal, but after Nick Chubb suffered a serious knee injury, the Browns brought him back on a one-year deal with $750,000 guaranteed.
Hunt has done little to suggest he's an NFL-caliber ball carrier at this point of his career. He's averaging a career-low 3.3 yards per carry, albeit on plays in which the expectation has been 3.9 yards per rush. Chubb, Jerome Ford and Pierre Strong have all posted positive RYOE figures this season, but Hunt is at minus-35 across 60 carries. He is averaging 1.4 yards per route run as a receiver, but the 28-year-old is now a replacement-level runner.
What could happen in 2024: It would be a surprise if Hunt was playing for any organization besides the Browns.
Leonard Fournette, Buffalo Bills
Contract situation: Signed a one-year, practice-squad deal in October
Just two years after "Playoff Lenny" helped the Buccaneers win a Super Bowl, the 28-year-old Fournette was released to create cap space in February. He hinted at possible landing spots during the spring but remained a free agent until joining the Bills' practice squad. He could figure into Buffalo's rotation as a replacement for Damien Harris, who is on injured reserve with a neck injury.
What could happen in 2024: Fournette spent the past six months out of football, so it didn't appear that there was much of a market for his services. His future in the league might be determined by what he does over the remainder of the season with the Bills.
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
Contract situation: In the final season of a four-year, $24.5 million extension, which was amended in May to add $1.75 million in incentives
Ekeler built a unique résumé as the most productive back in the league between 2021 and 2022. He caught 177 passes for 1,369 yards, making him an essential part of a pass-happy Chargers offense. His 410 carries generated 1,826 yards, but the differentiator for him was touchdowns, as his 38 over the prior two seasons led the league.
In years past, that résumé probably would have earned the 28-year-old a significant extension. During the 2023 offseason, though, the market wasn't there. After failing to come to terms on a new deal, the Chargers allowed Ekeler to search for a new team via trade. There were no reports of him being close to finding a landing spot before he returned to Los Angeles, with the team adding $1.75 million in incentives to help soften the blow in the final year of his deal.
While Ekeler scored twice in Monday's win over the Jets, it's been a rough season for the dynamic hybrid back. He is averaging a career-low 3.6 yards per carry, in part because he hasn't seen great looks up front. The Chargers have cleared out only an average of 3.5 expected yards per carry, which is the worst mark in the NFL. Ekeler has basically been an average runner given those opportunities, with minus-1 RYOE across 73 carries. His success rate as a runner has dropped from 55.8% in 2021 to 48% a year ago and 42.5% this season.
The bigger concern for Ekeler's next deal might be the fact that he missed four games after leaving the Week 1 loss to the Dolphins with an ankle injury. He had generally been healthy after stepping into the starting role as a replacement for Melvin Gordon, with a significant hamstring injury in 2020 as his lone time on the sidelines. Teams typically aren't comfortable paying lead backs, but when they make exceptions, it's typically for bigger backs with significant pedigrees. As a 5-foot-10 former undrafted free agent, Ekeler has to prove he can stay healthy over and over again as opposed to earning any benefit of the doubt.
The good news for Ekeler is he has remained efficient as a receiver. He's averaging 1.9 yards per route run, which ranks third behind Jaylen Warren and Alvin Kamara among backs with 100 routes or more. He was at 1.7 yards per route run between 2021 and 2022. He is running about two fewer routes per game than he did over the previous two seasons, but he has been almost as productive in the passing game as he was in years past. His raw numbers as a runner are disappointing, but if you trust the model suggesting he's facing difficult rushing opportunities, he's still playing at a high level.
What could happen in 2024: Los Angeles is $44 million over the projected cap next year before making any restructures or retaining any free agents, but the team could still find a way to franchise Ekeler, given that it doesn't have any other obvious candidates for the tag. He will be 29, which is going to complicate his chances of landing a multiyear guarantee on a new deal, whether it's with the Chargers or another team.
With Ekeler making about $6.3 million in base salary this season before any incentives, the franchise tag would at least double his compensation to $13.1 million for 2024.
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Contract situation: Signed three-year, $42 million extension in October
Let's finish with the one player from this bunch who did receive a contract extension. Taylor was granted permission by the Colts to seek a trade in late August, but when the team wasn't able to find a satisfactory deal, it placed him on the reserve/PUP list to begin the season as he recovered from an ankle injury.
After he returned, the Colts signed Taylor to a three-year, $42 million extension, guaranteeing him $26.5 million. Unless they cut him after the season, he will make just under $28 million in new money between 2023 and 2025. That's right in line with what he would have earned from two franchise tags, with Taylor projected to come in at $13.2 million in 2024 before a 20% raise to $15.8 million in 2025. In the end, he and the Colts compromised, paying him an extra $3 million or so over the first franchise tag to save about a million dollars on a second.
Since returning, Taylor has split time in the backfield with the impressive Zack Moss, who has averaged 4.7 yards per carry in situations where an average back would have gained just 3.5 yards per attempt. Moss ranks second in the league in RYOE per carry and sixth in success rate among backs with at least 100 attempts.
The combination of Taylor's ankle injury and Moss' breakout has limited opportunities for Taylor. He seemed to be hinting toward a breakout when he ran through the Saints for a 42-yard gain in the first half of Week 8, but he touched the ball just twice after halftime. Last Sunday, he carried the ball 18 times against the Panthers, but those runs picked up only 47 yards. He's averaging 4.1 yards per carry with 10 RYOE on 62 attempts.
Could you make the case Moss' success hints at a scenario in which the Colts could have traded Taylor and been just fine in the backfield? Maybe. Moss wasn't this caliber of a back in Buffalo, though, and hasn't historically been as good a receiver as Taylor. General manager Chris Ballard also built an offense in which Anthony Richardson and his top five pass-catchers at wide receiver and tight end are all on rookie deals. Even backup signal-caller Gardner Minshew is making only $3.5 million. Opportunity cost is a thing, but if any team can afford to guarantee a running back two franchise tags right now, it's the Colts.
What could happen in 2024: Barring injury, Taylor should be the lead back on the Colts through 2025.
What this means for the 2024 offseason
For all of the amazement that those seven non-Taylor backs weren't able to land the deals they were hoping for this offseason, it's hard to argue any of them have been vindicated by their 2023 production. Fournette gets an incomplete grade by virtue of not playing, Ekeler missed time with injuries and Elliott has lived up to his contract with the Patriots, but the other four have all taken a significant step backward from what they did last season, let alone what they were accomplishing at their peaks.
Unfortunately, I don't think the 2024 offseason is going to be any more generous to backs. Cook, Elliott, Fournette and Hunt will all be free agents. Barkley and Jacobs could join them if their teams don't offer up a second franchise tag. Ekeler could be tagged by the Chargers at a reasonable price for one season.
On top of that, there's an even more impressive crop of starters about to hit free agency. Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard (who signed his franchise tag for 2023 as he recovered from a fibula injury) and D'Andre Swift are all set to become unrestricted free agents, along with injured Ravens back J.K. Dobbins. That group doesn't even include rotational backs such as Moss and AJ Dillon and potential cap casualties such as Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon and James Conner.
All those departures would open up starting jobs around the league, but that's a lot of backs competing for a handful of opportunities. Some of those jobs will go to backs who are already on rosters on rookie deals. Others will go to the various backs who come out in the 2024 draft. If the summer of 2023 frustrated the league's veteran rushers, well, 2024 might be even worse.