There are always a few Pro Bowl snubs. So let's pick 'em out.
In selecting snubs for the 2024 Pro Bowl, we're breaking them down into three categories:
Players who should be in.
Players who could be in.
Players who would be in in another year, but numbers kept them out this time around (technically, not a snub).
There are also only so many spots, so I've always felt that if we're going to identify players who should have made the Pro Bowl roster, we have to pick out who they would replace. It's only fair.
Jump to a section:
Should be in | Could be in | Maybe next year
Players who should be in
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Who he should replace: Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Here are the highest yards per route run seasons by a wide receiver since 2007:
1. Tyreek Hill, 2023: 4.1
2. Steve Smith, 2008: 3.9
3. Hill, 2022: 3.3
4. Aiyuk, 2023: 3.3
5. Andre Johnson, 2007: 3.2
And yet, Aiyuk is not in the Pro Bowl?! This is the hardest sell to me. I'm sure he got dinged for "only" 1,317 receiving yards but that is partially driven by the fact that the 49ers are leading so often that they have become run-heavy late in games.
The advanced metrics also back up Aiyuk, who leads all players in our receiver tracking metrics' overall score (97) for the season.
Antoine Winfield Jr., S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Who he should replace: Budda Baker, S, Arizona Cardinals
Safety is by far the hardest position to quantify, but Winfield's box score production is truly undeniable. Winfield has caught three picks, forced five fumbles (and recovered four) and recorded 5.0 sacks. Oh, and he leads all defensive backs (min. 50 qualifying plays) in run stop win rate, too. It's hard to imagine how Baker -- with zero interceptions, zero forced fumbles and a fifth-place ranking in run stop win rate -- could have been better than that.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Who he should replace: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
I know, I know, Allen has thrown 16 interceptions. But that's fully accounted for in QBR, which measures the down-to-down efficiency of quarterbacks -- including QB rushing. And QBR is definitive in its opinion that Allen (68.0, third) has been better than Tagovailoa (59.0, 13th) this season. Plus, Tagovailoa has played with an amazing wide receiver pair and is on the most efficient running team in the league.
DeForest Buckner, DT, Indianapolis Colts
Who he should replace: Quinnen Williams, DT, New York Jets
It might have been under the radar in Indianapolis, but Buckner has had a seriously strong 2023 season. The 7.0 sacks are solid, but it is his 18% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle -- third best at the position -- that stands out. The volume has been there, too, as his 53 pass rush wins are the second most among defensive tackle qualifiers.
Dustin Hopkins, K, Cleveland Browns
Who he should replace: Justin Tucker, K, Baltimore Ravens
Tucker is an absolute legend, but this Pro Bowl team should be based only on 2023 performance. And Hopkins has simply been better this season, making 6.6 field goals over expectation according to NFL Next Gen Stats, compared with just 3.3 for Tucker. In terms of win probability added Hopkins also has the advantage.
Players who could be in
Bradley Chubb, OLB, Dolphins
Who he could replace: Khalil Mack, OLB, Los Angeles Chargers
Both of these players are impressive in the forced fumble department, with Chubb recording six to Mack's five. While Mack (16.0) has more sacks than Chubb (11.0), I don't think those five plays make up for the massive disparity in their win rates. Chubb has recorded a 22% pass rush win rate at edge, which ranks ninth at the position, while Mack's rate was around half that at 12%, ranking 39th out of 53 qualifiers. That consistent disruption gives Chubb the nod for me, even though he is out for the season with a torn ACL.
Garett Bolles, OT, Denver Broncos
Who he could replace: Terron Armstead, OT, Dolphins
Bolles ranks 10th in pass block win rate and 11th in run block win rate. Notably, he played well against potential Defensive Player of the Year candidate Myles Garrett, too. My issue with Armstead is really about playing time -- he has played only nine games this season and played 100% of the snaps in only three games. I have a hard time seeing how that little playing time can result in a Pro Bowl selection.
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
Who he could replace: Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Chase has more receiving yards -- 1,197 to Collins' 1,102 -- but on a per-route-run basis Collins is the clear victor at 3.0 (third, behind only Tyreek Hill and Aiyuk), while Chase has just 2.2. Collins also has excelled in the player tracking metrics, ranking fifth in overall score. While Chase had a backup throwing to him for part of the year, C.J. Stroud missed a couple of games, too, and took a few weeks to grow into the high-end QB he eventually became.
L'Jarius Sneed, CB, Kansas City Chiefs
Who he could replace: Pat Surtain II, CB, Broncos
Nearest defender numbers (via NFL Next Gen Stats) aren't perfect, but I have a hard time seeing the data for these two players and thinking the Pro Bowl selection shouldn't be reversed.
Sneed: 1.0 yards per coverage snap (better than average), minus-30 EPA allowed (third best among outside corners with 250 coverage snaps).
Surtain: 1.5 yards per coverage snap (worse than average), 21 EPA allowed (eighth worst).
T.J. Edwards, LB, Chicago Bears
Who he could replace: Bobby Wagner, LB, Seattle Seahawks
Edwards ranks third in terms of lowest EPA allowed as the nearest defender among linebackers with at least 200 coverage snaps, posting three interceptions (and a touchdown). He also has forced a fumble, recovered two others and recorded 2.5 sacks.
Players who would have made it in another year
DJ Moore, WR, Bears
You could put Amon-Ra St. Brown in this spot, too. And truthfully I'm torn on whether Moore should have snuck in over Mike Evans, but I'll at least give him this spot here. With 1,300 yards in the Bears' offense, he certainly deserved a long look. He has generated so much production on his own, with a league-leading 95 catch score (receiver tracking metrics). In other words, he has caught passes relative to expectation at a higher rate than any other player in the league -- and done it while playing at an above-average level in terms of getting open and generating yards after catch, too.
Jadeveon Clowney, OLB, Ravens
He was crowded out in a sack-heavy field, though he's having a spectacular season. Clowney ranks fifth in pass rush win rate among edge rushers on a great Baltimore defense. Ultimately, the difference in sacks and turnovers created by Mack and Josh Allen were too much to overcome, but on a down-to-down basis Clowney has certainly been impactful. He's solid against the run as well, bolstering his case.
Osa Odighizuwa, DT, Dallas Cowboys
With a 19% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle, Odighizuwa ranks second (!) at the position. No, the sacks haven't come (3.0 this year) and the lack of volume -- he has fewer pass rushes than most of his peers -- keeps Odighizuwa out, too, but he was very impressive on a per-play basis. The other players in the top five (Aaron Donald, Buckner, Dexter Lawrence II and Chris Jones) all made the Pro Bowl or this list.
Jake Elliott, K, Philadelphia Eagles
The season-long numbers are impressive: Elliott recorded 6.4 made field goals over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, fourth best in the NFL. Normally I wouldn't put too much emphasis on a single play, but in this case I think an exception is warranted, as his 59-yard kick in the rain and wind to tie the game in the waning seconds of the Eagles' game against the Bills in Week 12 was unbelievable. He'd deserve the Pro Bowl spot most years but this season Brandon Aubrey -- who is a perfect 35-for-35 on field goal attempts and sits 8.5 field goals made over expectation -- is the clear choice.