If you want a reminder of how the NFL free agent market can help teams win a Super Bowl, just look at the champs. The Chiefs started four free agent acquisitions on offense, including both tackles (Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor) and two of their three top wideouts (Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson). Guard Joe Thuney, who played at an All-Pro level during the season, would have been a fifth if not for a pectoral injury.
On defense, the standout was safety Justin Reid, who ably replaced another former free agent addition in Tyrann Mathieu. Mike Edwards lined up next to him and played virtually every snap. Down the lineup, players such as Mike Pennel and Drue Tranquill made a difference in the front seven. No, Kansas City couldn't have done it without Patrick Mahomes, but the star quarterback got a lot of help from the players general manager Brett Veach & Co. added in free agency.
Free agency can be a double-edged sword. When I used to grade individual signings, my average report came in somewhere in the C to C-plus range because most free agent signings don't live up to expectations. Competing with other teams on the open market can lead organizations to make mistakes. Not grasping the market and being thoughtful about what's available can lead to decisions that look foolish a year later.
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Take the Panthers signing running back Miles Sanders to a four-year, $25.4 million deal a year ago. We couldn't have known his performance would entirely crater outside of Philadelphia, but it was inevitable that he would lose efficiency without Jalen Hurts and a top-three offensive line. Looking at contracts across the league also made it clear there were going to be running backs hitting the market as cap casualties over the spring and summer. Those backs weren't great, either, but at least they didn't tie up $11 million in guarantees over two years. Smart organizations read the market. Foolish ones react.
What does the 2024 market actually look like, though? I went position by position establishing what free agency might look like around the league on a tier-by-tier basis. For each spot in the lineup, you'll get to see how many players at each level are actually going to come available this offseason, both as unrestricted free agents and potential cap-related releases. I'll also hit which teams should expect to be in the market from spot to spot and how much those players should expect to land on their next deals. What teams pay, after all, can almost matter as much as who they sign.
I did this exercise in four separate pieces over two weeks, but I've included every position below and updated them since the franchise tag deadline and pre-free agency cuts:
Jump to a position:
QB | RB | WR | TE | OL
Edge | DT | LB | DB
Quarterbacks
Tier 1: Franchise players
Free agents: None
It's rare to see a quarterback of this caliber hit unrestricted free agency. The exceptions are often players coming off injuries (Drew Brees in 2006), in their late-30s or older (Tom Brady in 2020) or both (Peyton Manning in 2012). Kurt Warner might be the lone exception here, as his performance had declined with the Rams and Giants before surging again after joining the Cardinals in 2005.
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
Free agents: Kirk Cousins, Vikings
Cousins is unquestionably the best quarterback on the market, though he's recovering from his first serious injury after he tore his right Achilles in late October. Before the injury, Cousins' 63.6 QBR was the ninth-best mark in the league. His 11.2% off-target rate ranked No. 1 over the first half of the season, and he did it without Justin Jefferson for a chunk of that time.
The last time Cousins was a free agent, he parlayed his leverage into a three-year deal worth a fully guaranteed $84 million. After two seasons, he parlayed that contract and Minnesota's need for cap relief into two additional deals. In all, he earned $185 million over his six years with the Vikings for an average of just under $31 million per season.
Any team hoping to win over the next three years that isn't in position to land one of the top starters in the 2024 draft should be trying to pursue Cousins. That's a group that includes the Broncos, Buccaneers, Falcons, Raiders, Steelers and Titans, with the Dolphins and Seahawks as outside candidates if they move on from their current starters. Some of those teams will opt for longer shots in the draft, but if Cousins' recovery is on track, he should be able to get one more significant deal as a 35-year-old free agent.
Average annual salary projection: $51 million per season
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: Russell Wilson, Broncos
The Broncos benched Wilson at the end of the season to ensure that his $37 million salary for 2025 wouldn't be triggered by an injury. Even though they owe him $39 million more in guarantees for 2024, they announced they were going to release him when the new league year begins. In addition to giving up multiple first-round picks to acquire him, Denver will have paid Wilson $124 million for two seasons.
Wilson was disappointing and won't make this sort of money again, but he was competent as a low-ceiling starter behind a Broncos offensive line that didn't do him many favors. The former Seahawks standout didn't show much as a downfield passer during his time in Denver, but he protected the football and posted a 26-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2023. If he wants to keep playing, one of the teams that misses out on Cousins should look toward Wilson.
Average annual salary projection: $1.3 million (Wilson will be collecting money from his Broncos deal and teams will have no reason to offset the money he's already owed.)
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: Jacoby Brissett, Commanders; Joe Flacco, Browns; Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers; Gardner Minshew, Colts; Ryan Tannehill, Titans; Jameis Winston, Saints
Possible cap casualties: Jimmy Garoppolo, Raiders
This is the passing-through tier, generally comprising players who either raised their stock or massively disappointed in 2023. Mayfield and Minshew proved they could lead teams with low expectations to winning records, while Flacco helped save Cleveland's season with late-season heroics as its fourth quarterback. Garoppolo and Tannehill lost their jobs by Halloween and didn't do much afterward, while Brissett and Winston spent their seasons on the bench.
Strictly on their 2023 merits, Mayfield and Minshew might be considered a tier higher and it's entirely possible a team might view them as that and pay them accordingly. Given that they each signed for deals in the $3.5 million to $4 million range a year ago and lack prototypical NFL size, though, teams might not be willing to pay them in line with their performance from last season.
Several of the quarterbacks in this tier are probably more valuable to their 2023 teams than to others. The Saints should want to re-sign Winston to avoid more than $10 million in dead money from his old deals hitting their cap. Mayfield seemed to find a home with the Buccaneers. Minshew won't be the starter in Indianapolis once top 2023 draft pick Anthony Richardson returns from injury, but if he's going to be a backup anywhere, it might as well be in Indianapolis. Garoppolo won't be returning to the Raiders, but a trip back to New England as the bridge quarterback to whomever the Patriots draft with the No. 3 overall pick seems like his most likely path.
Average annual salary projection: $9 million to $13 million per season
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: Sam Darnold, 49ers; Drew Lock, Seahawks; Marcus Mariota, Eagles; Tyrod Taylor, Giants; Carson Wentz, Rams
These are the quarterbacks who will be first off the market for teams looking for veteran backups, a group that could include more than half of the league. Most of these players got meaningful guarantees on their last deal, with Wentz as the lone exception. His brief cameo with the Rams probably won't move the needle, but his draft pedigree and the relatively positive vibes coming out of his time in Los Angeles should net him a guarantee as a backup somewhere.
In general, the players in this tier are going to struggle to land the sort of deals they received on their previous contracts, given they're all at least a year older and didn't do much to distinguish themselves. Lock led a comeback victory over the Eagles, but it's unclear whether the new staff in Seattle will be as interested in him as the Pete Carroll regime. Darnold might get the biggest deal of the bunch, owing both to his draft résumé and the halo effect of playing under Kyle Shanahan.
Average annual salary projection: $4 million to $7 million per season
Tier 6: Backups likely to earn roster spot
Free agents: Joshua Dobbs, Vikings; Blaine Gabbert, Chiefs; Tyler Huntley, Ravens; Mason Rudolph, Steelers; Nate Sudfeld, Lions
Possible cap casualties: Taylor Heinicke, Falcons
This final tier includes players who should be able to land spots on NFL rosters but who won't have more than a modicum of guaranteed money when they sign, meaning they'll have to compete for their roster spot in camp. Dobbs and Rudolph are the most conspicuously productive players in this bunch, but there wasn't much interest in Dobbs each of the times he came available in 2023.
Rudolph's brief burst of production was out of line with his prior career performance, and he is likely to re-sign with the Steelers. Mitch Trubisky was in this tier, but he signed a deal with Buffalo after being released by Pittsburgh.
Average annual salary projection: $1.5 million per season
Restricted free agents: Jake Browning, Bengals
A separate section is required for restricted free agents, who are extremely unlikely to leave their existing teams. Browning is an exclusive rights free agent, meaning the Bengals can hold on to him simply by making him a qualifying offer at the league minimum. After Browning posted a 98.4 passer rating on 243 pass attempts while filling in for an injured Joe Burrow in 2023, making that offer will be an easy decision for Cincinnati.
Running backs
Tier 1: Franchise players
Free agents: Saquon Barkley, Giants
If any back is likely to get a deal in line with the $11.9 million franchise tag, it's Barkley. While he isn't coming off a spectacular season with the Giants -- he averaged 3.9 yards per carry on his way to 962 yards -- he's a little better (and younger, at age 27) than the other options available. His skill set is a little more versatile, too. And while Barkley has had only two complete seasons at a Pro Bowl level, he carried the Giants' offense to the postseason as recently as 2022.
Where should he land? I'd look toward teams that need to help their rookie-deal quarterbacks with playmakers, a group that starts with the franchise at the top of the draft. The Bears have the cap space and the hole at running back to justify signing Barkley, with Roschon Johnson filling the supplementary role he excelled at during college at Texas. The Texans have plenty of wide receiver talent, but Barkley would be an upgrade over running back Devin Singletary. He could also end up in a game of musical chairs -- with one of the teams moving on from its back this offseason -- and join the Raiders or Titans.
Average annual salary projection: $12 million
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
Free agents: Derrick Henry, Titans
Possible cap casualties: Nick Chubb, Browns; Aaron Jones, Packers
The Titans finally eased up on the reins last season, with Henry dropping out of the 20-carries-per-game clip he had topped in four consecutive seasons to 16.5 rushes per contest. He still led the league in rushes, though his efficiency slid to a career-worst 4.2 yards per carry. While he still has ominous size and the feet to run for an easy 10 or 12 yards at a clip, the big-play ability that made him so devastating at his best might have faded. After producing 27 touches of 30 yards or more from 2018 to 2022, Henry had just three last season. I'd like to see him on a team that typically plays 11 personnel and dares the opposing defense to match up, like a rich man's Isiah Pacheco.
Chubb is coming off a serious knee injury and has a $15.8 million cap hit in the final year of his deal; bringing him back at that figure doesn't make sense for Cleveland. Jones was a force in the postseason and might have saved his job that way, but it's tough to see him sticking around Green Bay at a $17.6 million cap hit. In both cases, I wouldn't be surprised if the veterans agree to reduced deals and stay with their current teams.
Average annual salary projection: $9 million
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: Austin Ekeler, Chargers; Josh Jacobs, Raiders; D'Andre Swift, Eagles
Possible cap casualties: Alvin Kamara, Saints; Joe Mixon, Bengals
Ekeler produced at a Pro Bowl level in 2021 and 2022, but he lost a full yard per carry off his '22 mark a year ago and wasn't as productive in the passing game, averaging just 1.4 yards per route run. There wasn't a real trade market to acquire and extend Ekeler last offseason, and he's going to be 29 in May. He is likely to be a useful player into his 30s, but he could already be on the brink of falling to Tier 4 and might be best as a 1A back on passing downs.
The big plays and ability to absorb a heavy workload we saw from Jacobs during a breakout 2022 campaign (1,653 rushing yards) didn't reappear in 2023. He was one of the league's worst backs by stats such as rush yards over expectation (minus-86) and missed the final four games of the season with a quad injury. The comparison I've made for Jacobs is to former Bucs back Doug Martin, who had a solid rookie season in 2012, two middling seasons afterward and then an outlier of a breakout in Year 4 before coming down to earth for the remainder of his career. Jacobs is going to have to convince a team that 2022 wasn't a fluke.
Swift will benefit from having a breakout season in 2023. There wasn't a lot of trade interest in him when the Eagles traded for him last April, but the former Lions back had his best season as a pro and made the Pro Bowl. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry but posted negative rush yards over expectation (minus-65) and first downs over expectation (minus-10) marks. Swift didn't do much as a receiver in an offense that doesn't typically reward its backs with catches, but he has shown that skill set in the past. Having just turned 25, his youth should play up in free agency.
Kamara would be a cap casualty for most organizations, but with the Saints he has an equal shot at being restructured to free up short-term cap space. He averaged 1.8 yards per route run last season, so he's still an effective receiver, but he has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over the past three seasons. He hasn't been an impactful rusher since Drew Brees retired. He has an $18.7 million cap hit and $11.8 million in compensation due in 2024; New Orleans could free up nearly $12 million by designating him as a post-June 1 release.
Mixon found himself in the same situation as Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott last offseason and chose to take a pay cut. His 2023 season ended up looking like a mirror image of his 2022. Mixon's $8.9 million cap hit is identical to the figure he occupied last year, but with Joe Burrow getting more expensive and the Bengals franchise-tagging Tee Higgins, Cincinnati might choose to go in a cheaper direction.
Average annual salary projection: $7 million to $8 million
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: Tony Pollard, Cowboys; Devin Singletary, Texans
These are two backs seemingly going in different directions. Singletary joined the Texans and eventually carved out a role as the featured back, setting career highs for carries (216) and rushing yards (898). He also held onto the football, fumbling just once on 246 touches after fumbling about once every 55 touches during his final two seasons in Buffalo. I don't know if any team will ever be thrilled about having him as its starting back, but he deserves more credit than he gets.
Pollard, meanwhile, was franchise-tagged in 2023 and had his chance to prove his time as the featured back in the second half of 2022 was sustainable. Instead, hampered by the fractured fibula he suffered during the 2022 postseason, he showed little explosion and set career lows in yards per carry (4.0) and yards per reception (5.7). He got 17 carries inside the 5-yard line and turned them into only three touchdowns. Pollard is just 26 and should be fully recovered from his injury, but it's going to be tough for teams to project him into excelling as a primary back in 2024.
Average annual salary projection: $4 million to $6 million
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: AJ Dillon, Packers; Gus Edwards, Ravens; Ezekiel Elliott, Patriots; Antonio Gibson, Commanders; Zack Moss, Colts
Dillon had chances to prove his worth as a featured back while Jones was sidelined last season and didn't take them. In six starts, Dillon turned 93 carries into 333 yards and one touchdown. The Packers drafted him hoping he would turn into their Derrick Henry, but while Henry broke out in Year 3 and emerged as a star in Year 4, Dillon declined in his third and fourth campaigns.
Edwards took over for J.K. Dobbins and scored 13 touchdowns for the Ravens, but that was mostly a product of a league-high 23 attempts inside the 5-yard line. The league is smart enough to see through gaudy touchdown totals now; Jamaal Williams led the NFL with 17 touchdowns in 2022 and landed only two years and about $8 million guaranteed from the Saints last offseason. I'd be surprised if Edwards landed a multi-year commitment.
Elliott settled for a one-year deal with the Patriots last August and didn't do much to argue against the idea that his days as a lead back are numbered, averaging 3.5 yards per carry in a moribund offense. As a pass-blocker and power runner, he can still be a useful player in a situational role for the right team, which should keep him on a roster.
Despite spending most of his time in college as a receiver, Gibson never became a critical part of the passing game in Washington, even after Eric Bieniemy took over as offensive coordinator in 2023. Gibson's speed and range of skills should still appeal to teams in a backup role, but fumbles are a growing concern; he had six in 2021 and three more on just 113 touches last season.
Moss was comfortably the best back in this group last season, producing a pair of big games in September against the Ravens and Titans. After that, he mostly looked like his old self, averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Moss had 112 rushing yards over expectation through the first five weeks but just 17 afterward. His ability to shoulder the workload of a primary back should earn him guaranteed money.
Average annual salary projection: $2 million to $4 million
Tier 6: Backups likely to earn roster spots
Free agents: Matt Breida, Giants; J.K. Dobbins, Ravens; Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs; D'Onta Foreman, Bears; Damien Harris, Bills; Nyheim Hines, Bills; D'Ernest Johnson, Jaguars; Alexander Mattison, Vikings; Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs; Dare Ogunbowale, Texans; Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons
Possible cap casualty: Samaje Perine, Broncos
While other backs endure frustrating situations, this is the difficult tier in which to fall. There's simply way more competent or even useful backs than there are opportunities, and teams often would rather use their third running back spot for a player on a rookie deal who might have more upside than a veteran with a bigger name. Ogunbowale and Patterson are exceptions because of what they offer on special teams.
The most notable name here is Dobbins, who has seen his career torpedoed by injuries. After averaging 6.0 yards per carry as a rookie in 2020, he missed all of 2021 with a torn ACL in his left knee, was limited to 92 carries by complications from that injury in 2022 and then went down with a torn Achilles in the opener last season. We've seen players return from torn Achilles quicker than ever before, but Dobbins is likely to sign an incentive-laden deal given his injury history.
Average annual salary projection: $1 million to $2 million
Restricted free agents: Cam Akers, Vikings; Rico Dowdle, Cowboys
After losing and then regaining his job with the Rams in 2022, Akers gave way to Kyren Williams in 2023 and never got it back. He was sent to the Vikings in September, where he carried the ball 38 times for 138 yards before tearing an Achilles for the second time. Minnesota likely will non-tender Akers this offseason, which would leave the 24-year-old free to sign anywhere else without compensation.
Wide receivers
Tier 1: Franchise players
Free agents: None
This is another position in which true top-level stars usually don't make it to free agency. I probably would have put Tee Higgins in this tier before the Bengals franchise-tagged him last week.
The best wide receivers in the prime of their careers to hit the open market over the past decade are Sammy Watkins (2018), Amari Cooper (2020) and Chris Godwin (2022). The latter two ended up re-signing with their original teams.
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
Free agents: None
Buccaneers star Mike Evans was in this tier, but he re-signed with Tampa Bay before he could hit the market. Here's what I wrote about Evans' outlook:
Evans might come close to the top tier. You already know about his 1,000-yard streak, and he has missed just two games because of injury in four seasons. And after narrowly topping the 1,000-yard mark in 2020 and 2021 and needing a spectacular Week 17 to get there in 2022, he racked up 1,255 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. Drops are the only established flaw in Evans' game; the nine he had in 2023 were second to only Tyreek Hill. (Evans makes up for it in part by not fumbling; he hasn't put the ball on the ground after the catch since 2018.)
It's typically a bad bet to count on wide receivers after they turn 30, but Evans has been staggeringly consistent. Organizations will look at his age and project the 6-foot-5 wideout to decline over the course of his next deal, but that decline might be more graceful than it is for others. Then again, Julio Jones was a Pro Bowler with a 1,393-yard season at age 30 and a cap casualty by the Titans two years later.
It's rare for a free agent in his 30s to get three guaranteed years on a new deal, with Kirk Cousins and Von Miller as exceptions. Evans' camp will push for a third year that's at least partially guaranteed; when you consider his run of success, don't be surprised if he finds a few teams willing to go there. That could mean something close to $60 million in guarantees at signing.
Average annual salary projection: $24-26 million per season
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: Marquise Brown, Cardinals; Calvin Ridley, Jaguars
Possible cap casualties: Tyler Lockett, Seahawks; Mike Williams, Chargers
The free agents in this tier have struggled to achieve consistent success. Ridley spent a year and a half out of football after being suspended for gambling on games. His debut season with the Jags in 2023 was a mixed bag, as he racked up 92 yards and a touchdown in the first half of Week 1, then barely topped that figure over the next three weeks combined. He had four 100-plus-yard games, but nine of his 17 games produced 40 yards or fewer. He's now 29, so there's a three-year gap between Ridley and some of the other wideouts in this tier. If the inconsistency with Ridley was a product of Jacksonville's offense, the potential of that 1,374-yard season from 2020 will still appeal to teams needing a true top receiver.
Brown is a lesson in projection. He spent the first three years of his career in a run-first Ravens offense, then was traded to the Cardinals. Over the first six weeks of 2022, he posted a line that prorates to 122 catches for 1,374 yards and eight touchdowns over a full season. He then sustained a fractured foot, and by the time he returned, he got one more game with Kyler Murray before the quarterback tore his right ACL. In 2023, they got three games together before Brown suffered a heel injury that ruined the end of his season.
I don't think Brown will ever turn into a complete wide receiver -- and injuries have been a nagging problem throughout his career -- but he has legitimate speed and won't turn 27 until June. He's not going to be a No. 1 wide receiver, but he could produce more than you might expect if given the No. 2 role in the right offense.
Lockett and Williams can still play, but their teams have other options and cap concerns. Williams is coming off a torn left ACL and has a $32.5 million cap hit in the final year of his deal. Quentin Johnston, a first-rounder last year, is not ready to take over for Williams, but the Chargers might draft another wide receiver at No. 5 and probably have to choose between Williams and Keenan Allen. Lockett has a team-high $27.8 million cap hit, and the Seahawks could move Jaxon Smith-Njigba into two-wide sets alongside DK Metcalf. Lockett averaged 1.7 yards per route run last year, his worst mark since 2017.
This tier and the ones below are also going to be impacted by the 2024 draft class, which is full of talented wide receivers. Evans still got paid, but given the disparity in salary between veterans in free agency and Day 2/Day 3 picks on rookie deals, there's a fair number of teams likely to prefer taking their chances with a younger player. That's going to hurt the market for players who aren't seen as something close to sure things in free agency.
Michael Pittman Jr. was in this tier, but the Colts franchise tagged him. Here's what I wrote about him:
Pittman is a unique player in that he mostly lines up outside (65% of the time last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats) but still averages 10.6 yards per reception, a figure you'd expect more from a slot receiver. He had a huge split in 2023 between his performance when split out wide (2.6 yards per route run, an excellent figure) and in the slot (1.0, abysmal for a receiver). In 2022, he was more effective in the slot than out wide, so this hasn't been a trend. Pittman's size plays up for any quarterback, but I'd like to see him get a multiyear run with the same passer to get to the next level.
Average annual salary projection: $12-16 million per season
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: Odell Beckham Jr., Ravens; Tyler Boyd, Bengals; Gabe Davis, Bills; Darnell Mooney, Bears; Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chiefs
Possible cap casualties: Michael Gallup, Cowboys; Allen Lazard, Jets; Michael Thomas, Saints
Beckham's one-year deal with the Ravens ended up producing a different sort of season than what we've seen from the former Giants standout in previous years. He averaged a career-high 16.1 yards per reception, but Baltimore cut back heavily on his usage. He played just about every snap in Week 1 and during the first half of Week 2, then missed all of the second half and the next two games with an ankle injury. From that point forward, the Ravens played him on about 45% of the offensive snaps. I'm not sure he's more than a rotational player at this point.
Mooney looked to be on pace to become a star after a 1,055-yard season in 2021, but he racked up 907 combined yards over the past two seasons. Some of that is a product of playing in a run-heavy Chicago offense, but Mooney averaged 0.9 yards per route run last season. That ranked 80th out of 96 wide receivers (ahead of Valdes-Scantling and Lazard, but not many others). The 26-year-old is probably looking at a one-year deal to reestablish his value.
Davis went to bat for himself in tweeting out a series of stats pointing toward his explosiveness when catching the ball, but he was never able to command a significant target share in Buffalo. His style of play will make it hard to draw lots of passes; over the past four seasons, he was targeted on just 16.6% of his routes, which ranks 63rd out of the 76 wideouts with at least 1,000 targets over that span. The only guy below him to earn a significant deal in free agency is Valdes-Scantling, who serves as a pretty good comp for Davis. He's a deep threat and little else.
Average annual salary projection: $5-9 million per season
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: Jamal Agnew, Jaguars; Noah Brown, Texans; DJ Chark, Panthers; Devin Duvernay, Ravens; Mecole Hardman, Chiefs; K.J. Osborn, Vikings; Josh Reynolds, Lions; Curtis Samuel, Commanders
Possible cap casualties: Hunter Renfrow, Raiders; Robert Woods, Texans
When you get to this tier, you're looking for wideouts who do something else reasonably well beyond receiving to justify their paychecks. Agnew and Duvernay are good returners. Reynolds and Woods are valuable blockers. Hardman and Samuel have been useful gadget players at some point during their careers. That's the sort of stuff that makes it easier to keep a veteran on a roster as the third or fourth wide receiver.
The exceptions are players who have been useful receivers in the recent past. Chark hasn't looked the same since fracturing his left ankle with the Jags in 2021, but he put up some good numbers for the Lions at the end of 2022. Renfrow had a 1,038-yard season in 2021 before falling victim to the Josh McDaniels era in Las Vegas. Osborn quietly has been an effective third wideout when given the opportunity in Minnesota. Brown had 153- and 172-yard games for the Texans last season and played special teams during his time with the Cowboys (2017-22).
Average annual salary projection: $2-5 million per season
Tier 6: Backups likely to earn roster spots
Free agents: Braxton Berrios, Dolphins; Kendrick Bourne, Patriots; Miles Boykin, Steelers; Equanimeous St. Brown, Bears; Parris Campbell, Giants; Chase Claypool, Dolphins; Chris Conley, 49ers; Deonte Harty, Bills; Mack Hollins, Falcons; Richie James, Chiefs; Van Jefferson, Falcons; Ray-Ray McCloud, 49ers; Isaiah McKenzie, Colts; Chris Moore, Titans; Donovan Peoples-Jones, Lions; Trent Sherfield, Bills; Quez Watkins, Eagles; Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Titans; Cedrick Wilson, Dolphins; Olamide Zaccheaus, Eagles
Possible cap casualties: Russell Gage, Buccaneers; Tim Patrick, Broncos; Allen Robinson, Steelers
Some of the most notable names here haven't been healthy. Patrick has missed the past two seasons with a torn ACL and then a torn Achilles. Gage tore a patella in training camp and was sidelined for the entire season. There's no way they'll be back at their current cap figures. Neither will Robinson, who has a $10 million unguaranteed salary and hasn't looked good in three years. He might be finished.
Claypool could be right behind him. An ill-fated stint with the Bears ended with him being dumped on the Dolphins for a swap of late-round picks. He proceeded to run a total of 22 routes over his nine games with Miami. I'd be surprised if the 25-year-old wasn't given another opportunity -- there are only so many 6-foot-4, 240-pound wideouts with his speed out there -- but there's nothing in his performances over the past two seasons suggesting he's an NFL-caliber wideout.
Average annual salary projection: $1 million per season
Restricted free agents: Greg Dortch, Cardinals; Trenton Irwin, Bengals; Jauan Jennings, 49ers; Rashid Shaheed, Saints; Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Vikings
There are some fun players here. Shaheed has been a high-efficiency deep threat for the Saints, but he won't be going anywhere because he's an exclusive-rights free agent. Dortch, who has been productive when given a chance to play, is another ERFA.
Jennings is a traditional restricted free agent, and coming off a Super Bowl in which he both threw and caught a touchdown, I wonder whether there will be interest in the 2020 seventh-round pick. Jennings doesn't have great speed, but he's a big body (6-3) who can work the middle of the field and shrug off tackles after catching the ball.
With the 49ers committed to big deals for multiple playmakers and expected to address Brandon Aiyuk's contract this offseason, there might not be much left in the cupboard for their third wide receiver. I'm not sure a team would be willing to give up a second-round pick for Jennings if the 49ers tender him as such, but there might be a scenario in which San Francisco trades him for a Day 3 pick.
Tight ends
Tier 1: Franchise players
Free agents: None
Elite tight ends also typically stay off the free agent market. The exceptions have been "move" tight ends such as Julius Thomas signing with the Jaguars in 2015 and Jimmy Graham signing with the Packers in 2018. Given how affordable the contracts for even great tight ends have been, it typically has been easy to get deals done with the best guys in the business before they hit the market.
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
Free agents: None
Houston's Dalton Schultz was in this tier, but he took a three-year deal from the Texans instead. Here's what I wrote about his outlook:
While Schultz hasn't made it to the Pro Bowl during his six-year career, the former Cowboys tight end has the sort of performance background that could produce a Pro Bowl-caliber campaign on his next deal. After a slow start over his first month in Houston last season, the 27-year-old averaged 1.91 yards per route run from Week 5 onward, which ranked ninth among tight ends.
Schultz was franchise-tagged for just under $11 million during his final season in Dallas in 2022, but after hitting the market a year ago, he signed a one-year contract for $6.3 million with Houston. This is probably his best chance at a multiyear guarantee, so I would expect him to split those two figures, either by re-signing with Houston or heading elsewhere.
For teams that desperately need receiving help, signing Schultz would be a relatively low-cost way to add a middle-of-the-field and red zone target for a young quarterback. The Commanders, Patriots and Colts should be interested. One under-the-radar team might be the Rams. They don't typically make signings like this because it impacts their compensatory formula, but they have a hole at tight end with Tyler Higbee potentially missing the start of the 2024 season (knee).
Average annual salary projection: $11 million per year
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: Noah Fant, Seahawks; Hunter Henry, Patriots
The pickings are slim at tight end. Henry didn't dominate during his three seasons in New England, but after battling injuries for most of his time with the Chargers, he was active for 48 of his 51 possible games with the Pats. He scored nine touchdowns in 2021 and 17 total with the Patriots, figures that were depressed by the Patriots' inconsistent quarterback play over the past two seasons. Henry's three catches for 30 yards per game won't thrill fans, but he's going to be a steady starter for another year or two, and the lack of impressive options should give him a reasonable market.
Fant is right on the line between Tier 3 and Tier 4 for me. He'll have an interesting market, given that he was a first-round pick in 2019. There aren't a lot of 249-pound guys who can run a 4.50-second 40-yard dash, as Fant did at the combine, but he was never able to parlay that into a steady role in the Denver or Seattle passing attacks. Fant turned 26 in November, so he's relatively young for a player with five seasons of NFL experience. He might still have some upside as a receiver.
Average annual salary projection: $8 million per year
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: Gerald Everett, Chargers
Possible cap casualties: Taysom Hill, Saints
The big name here is Hill, who has proven to be a better idea in theory than actual practice given how the Saints used him on a week-to-week basis over the past couple of seasons. He's still a useful player, but he's 33 and has a $15.8 million cap hit for 2023, the third-largest figure for any tight end. The Saints could restructure his deal, but making him a post-June 1 release would free up $10 million in cap space for a player who played only 38% of the offensive snaps in 2023.
I suspect Hill might be a fit for Sean Payton and the Broncos.
Average annual salary projection: $4.5 million per year
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: Harrison Bryant, Browns; Josiah Deguara, Packers; Will Dissly, Seahawks; Mike Gesicki, Patriots; Marcedes Lewis, Bears; Colby Parkinson, Seahawks; Irv Smith Jr., Bengals; Adam Trautman, Broncos; Charlie Woerner, 49ers
A lot of the tight end market is here, with players who will have a role in 12- and 13-personnel packages and have specialized skill sets that need sheltered snaps. On one side of the spectrum, there is Gesicki, who racked up 780 receiving yards two years ago and has 606 combined over the two subsequent seasons. He needs to be spotted snaps as a big slot receiver, which limits his market to teams that don't have a more explosive option on the interior. Franchise-tagged as recently as 2022, Gesicki could represent a low-risk, high-reward opportunity if he ends up in the right offense.
On the other hand, there are players such as Bryant and Lewis, who are going to be on the field for their blocking and might catch only a handful of passes all season. It was a surprise when Lewis didn't join the Packers reunion in New York with Aaron Rodgers & Co. last year, although the Jets had a lot invested at tight end; some of those snaps should come open this offseason, giving Lewis a chance to chase a ring with his old friends.
Average annual salary projection: $2.5 million per year
Tier 6: Backup likely to earn roster spots
Free agents: Blake Bell, Chiefs; Ross Dwelley, 49ers; Austin Hooper, Raiders; Brycen Hopkins, Rams; Johnny Mundt, Vikings; MyCole Pruitt, Falcons; Geoff Swaim, Cardinals; Logan Thomas, Commanders; Robert Tonyan, Bears; C.J. Uzomah, Jets
Tonyan was a red zone threat in 2020 and racked up 11 touchdowns at Green Bay, but he tore his ACL in 2021 and has six touchdowns over his five other pro seasons. Along with the other tight ends in this group, these players are second or third options teams won't count on for more than 200 offensive snaps in 2024.
Thomas and Uzomah have battled injuries and had significant salaries in 2024, which is why there were released before free agency.
Average annual salary projection: $1 million per year
Restricted free agents: Tanner Hudson, Bengals; Brock Wright, Lions
Wright was a red zone threat in December 2022 for the Lions, scoring three touchdowns in two games before giving way to Sam LaPorta a year ago. I wouldn't be surprised if he had a market as an unrestricted free agent, but he's still one season away from getting there.
Offensive linemen
Tier 1: Franchise players
Free agents: None
Jason Kelce was in this tier, but he announced his retirement on Monday. Here's what I wrote about him:
Even at age 36, Kelce remains one of the top centers in all of football and an essential player for the Eagles. If you give him some direct portion of the credit for Philly's success on the "Tush Push," he might be the league's most valuable offensive lineman.
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
Free agents: C Mitch Morse, Bills; G/OT Mike Onwenu, Patriots; OT Tyron Smith, Cowboys
After six restructures, the eight-year extension Smith signed with the Cowboys in 2014 is finally complete, allowing the eight-time Pro Bowler to hit free agency for the first time in his career. It seems like he has been around forever, given that he entered the league in 2011, but he's still only 33. Injuries have sapped some of his physical tools and prevented him from playing a full season since 2015, but Smith's 13 appearances this past season were the most he has made since 2019. NFL Next Gen Stats ranked him second among left tackles in 2023 with a 6.5% pressure rate, although he did post a league-high nine holding penalties. The veteran will be an intriguing option for win-now teams if the Cowboys don't strike a deal to bring him back. Could the Chiefs use him as a replacement for Donovan Smith?
Morse is another veteran who has battled injuries during his career, most notably a series of concussions that raised concerns about his pro future. After making his first Pro Bowl appearance in 2022, he suited up for all 17 games in 2023 and wasn't credited as allowing a single sack all year by Next Gen Stats. In the final year of his deal for a cap-strapped Bills team, Morse's $11.5 million cap hold was too pricey; Buffalo elected to let him go to free up more than $8 million in room.
Pat McAfee reacts to the Seahawks deciding to release Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs.
Onwenu has been asked to bounce around the line for the Patriots, but when given a chance to play right guard all season in 2022, he looked like one of the NFL's best. He did a solid job at right tackle in 2023, so there will be teams willing to pay him tackle money this offseason and others that will strictly see him as a very good guard. With the Jets cutting Laken Tomlinson (more on that in a moment) and if they move Alijah Vera-Tucker back to guard, Onwenu could be a valuable addition to the right side of their line.
Average annual salary projection: $20 million per year (left tackle), $16 million per year (guard), $12 million per year (center)
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: C Tyler Biadasz, Cowboys; OT Trent Brown, Patriots; C Lloyd Cushenberry, Broncos; G/OT Robert Hunt, Dolphins; G Jonah Jackson, Lions; G Damien Lewis, Seahawks; G Jon Runyan, Packers; OT Donovan Smith, Chiefs; G Laken Tomlinson, Jets; OT Jonah Williams, Bengals; G Kevin Zeitler, Ravens
Possible cap casualties: OT David Bakhtiari, Packers; OT D.J. Humphries, Cardinals
There typically aren't many left tackles on the market. This year could be an exception. As many as 11 teams could be looking for a new player to protect their quarterback on the left side, so there's going to be a rush in looking for solutions. Some of those teams will try to grab tackles in the draft, but ask the Jets about what happens if you don't have linemen you can trust protecting your quarterback. Nailing this section of the market could be what makes or breaks a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
Just about every one of these tackles comes with a red flag. Brown has played well for really only the Patriots, and he fell out of favor even with them last season. Smith ranks third in the league in holding penalties over the past five seasons (29). Williams wasn't able to lock down the left side of the line for the Bengals and allowed eight sacks after moving to right tackle in 2023. Tomlinson, the lone guard in the bunch, was cut earlier this week; he had an untenable $18.7 million cap hit for a Jets team that needs to upgrade just about everywhere along the offensive line.
Bakhtiari missed virtually all of the 2021 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee, came back in 2022 and then missed the final 16 games of the 2023 campaign after undergoing another knee surgery. He has a staggering $40 million cap hit in 2024, which just isn't a realistic figure. The Jets should be interested if Bakhtiari is released given his history with Rodgers, although relying on him without a backup plan seems dangerous. Humphries tore an ACL in December and might not be ready for the start of 2024; the Cardinals could designate him as a post-June 1 release and move 2023 first-rounder Paris Johnson Jr. to the left side. I wonder if the Ravens might take a flyer on Humphries with the hopes that they land a starter in the second half of 2024.
The interior linemen are safer bets, although it's typically easier to find guards in the draft. One of the tough questions here will be evaluating players who have spent most of their careers surrounded by talent up front. Will Biadasz be as good when he's not playing next to Zack Martin? What about Jackson without Frank Ragnow alongside at center? Some teams would rather just pay their tackles more and try to get by on the interior.
If you subscribe to the idea that availability is the best ability, you might look toward Williams and Tomlinson as the best of the bunch. Williams is only 26 and has significant experience playing on the blindside for a contender; the Bengals aren't going to pay him left tackle money, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots or Titans take the plunge, a move that would both fill a critical hole and allow them to look toward receiver (or quarterback) in the first round of April's draft.
Average annual salary projections: $12 million to $16 million (left tackle), $12 million (right tackle), $10 million (guard), $8 million (center)
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: OT Duane Brown, Jets; C Mason Cole, Steelers; G/OT Jack Driscoll, Eagles; OT George Fant; C/G Graham Glasgow, Lions; C Andre James, Raiders; OT Charles Leno Jr., Commanders; OT Yosh Nijman, Packers; G/OT Andrus Peat, Saints; G Dalton Risner, Vikings; G John Simpson, Ravens; G Greg Van Roten, Raiders; C/G Cody Whitehair, Bears; C Connor Williams, Dolphins; G/OT Isaiah Wynn, Dolphins
Possible cap casualties: OT Joe Noteboom, Rams; OT Ronnie Stanley, Ravens
Like the tier above, there's a group of former standouts here who have fallen because of injuries. The 38-year-old Brown might be done. Stanley sadly suffered a career-altering ankle injury days after signing a five-year extension in 2020; he has missed significant time over the past four seasons and was rotating in and out of the lineup for stretches to try to stay fresh in 2023. It's tough to see the Ravens bringing him back with a cap hit of more than $26 million, although a reduced deal would make sense for both sides.
Fant and Wynn settled for one-year deals last offseason but played well enough to justify raises this offseason. Fant took over the right tackle job in Houston because of an injury to Tytus Howard and never gave it back, pushing Howard inside to left guard. (Howard's X profile says he's "right tackle only," but if Fant returns to the Texans, he might not have a choice.) Wynn, the former Patriots first-round pick, looked great at left guard for the Dolphins before suffering a quad injury in Week 7.
There were some solid guard performances last season in this tier. Simpson stepped in for the departed Ben Powers in Baltimore and started all 17 games on one of the league's best offenses. The Ravens are typically comfortable letting guards leave for compensatory picks, so if Simpson has a market, he'll be heading elsewhere. The 33-year-old Van Roten had his best season as a pro in Las Vegas; the journeyman should get a raise on the $1.6 million he made in 2023.
The two most interesting players on this list to me are Driscoll and Nijman. Driscoll was the swing tackle for the Eagles over the past few seasons playing ahead of Andre Dillard, whom the Titans guaranteed $10 million last offseason. Nijman rotated in behind Rasheed Walker after Bakhtiari got hurt in September. In 2022, Nijman rated as elite by ESPN's win rate metrics, ranking 11th among tackles in pass block win rate and first in run block win rate. We'll see if teams are willing to stretch their budgets and pay these swing tackles like they're starters in waiting.
Average annual salary projections: $8 million to 10 million (left tackle), $6 million to $8 million million (right tackle), $4 million to $6 million (guard), $3 million (center)
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: G Nick Allegretti, Chiefs; C Aaron Brewer, Titans; G/OT Saahdiq Charles, Commanders; OT Geron Christian, Browns; G/OT Chuma Edoga, Cowboys; G/OT Jermaine Eluemunor, Raiders; G Dan Feeney, Bears; G/OT Matt Feiler, Buccaneers; G Jon Feliciano, 49ers; C Nick Harris, Browns; C Tyler Larsen, Commanders; OT Kendall Lamm, Dolphins; OT Cornelius Lucas, Commanders; C Connor McGovern, Jets; G Lucas Patrick, Bears; C/G Scott Quessenberry, Texans; G/C Tyler Shatley, Jaguars; G/OT Halapoulivaati Vaitai, Eagles; G Elijah Wilkinson, Cardinals
Possible cap casualties: C/G Bradley Bozeman, Panthers; OT Andre Dillard, Titans
At this level, teams are just looking for functional linemen who can step in for the inevitable injuries that pop up as the season goes along. Those sixth and seventh linemen can be critically important to a roster; one of the things that helped swing the Super Bowl toward Kansas City might have been Feliciano going down with an injury, as backup Spencer Burford appeared to blow a pass protection on the third-and-4 play in overtime that should have produced a San Francisco touchdown. Feliciano is in this section, as is Allegretti, who filled in for Joe Thuney on the Chiefs in the postseason.
Some teams are looking for versatility, hoping they can plug in a lineman capable of replacing multiple spots in the lineup. Many linemen at this level have to survive by being able to handle guard or tackle in a pinch, although they obviously have their preferences for playing one or the other on a full-time basis. Teams will take a long look at Charles, hoping that better coaching can unlock something more out of a 2020 fourth-rounder who won't turn 25 until July.
The exception at this tier would be if a player can take snaps at left tackle and qualify strictly as a swing tackle. There's a surprising number of players with left tackle experience on this list. Christian and Lucas inherited those jobs when others got injured, while Dillard started the season as Tennessee's left tackle before being benched in October. Lamm has taken snaps at left tackle for the Dolphins over the past couple of seasons when Terron Armstead has gone down injured. These aren't guys you want playing 1,000 snaps on your quarterback's blind side, but if they can hold up for a few games without getting anybody injured, they'd be valuable to have waiting on the bench. Three-quarters of the league will probably be adding at least one Tier 5 or Tier 6 offensive lineman this offseason.
Average annual salary projections: $2 million to $4 million (swing tackle), $1.5 million to $3 million (utility linemen)
Tier 6: Backups likely to earn roster spots
Free agents: G Ben Bredeson, Giants; G/C Evan Brown, Seahawks; C/G Will Clapp, Chargers; C/G Michael Deiter, Texans; G David Edwards, Bills; C/G Pat Elflein, Cardinals; C/G Cameron Erving, Saints; OT Cam Fleming, Broncos; G/OT Cody Ford, Bengals; G/OT Michael Dunn, Browns; G Phil Haynes, Seahawks; OT Charlie Heck, Texans; OT Chris Hubbard, Titans; G Gabe Jackson, Seahawks; G/OT Josh Jones, Texans; G/OT Matt Pryor, 49ers; G Sua Opeta, Eagles; G Max Scharping, Bengals; G Aaron Stinnie, Buccaneers; OT Brandon Parker, Raiders; OT Justin Skule, Buccaneers; G/OT Billy Turner, Jets; OT Oli Udoh, Vikings
Possible cap casualties: G Mark Glowinski, Giants
A lot of the players in this section are veterans who were regarded as valuable swing linemen as recently as a couple of years ago; now they're probably looking at one-year deals and will need to win a roster spot in camp. Erving and Turner were starters on good teams, and Skule even started eight games at left tackle for the 2019 49ers on their way to the Super Bowl while Joe Staley was injured. Skule tore an ACL in 2021 and has played just 35 snaps as a backup for the Buccaneers since.
Average annual salary projection: $1 million
Restricted free agents: G Ben Bartch, 49ers; OT Blake Brandel, Vikings; G/OT Blake Hance, Jaguars; OT Alaric Jackson, Rams; G Nick Leverett, Buccaneers; OT Brandon Walton, Buccaneers; OT Prince Tega Wanogho, Chiefs
There might be a real market for Jackson, who started 15 games at left tackle for the Rams and held his own. Next Gen Stats suggest he allowed a below-average pressure rate (11.4%) but just two sacks all season, which was the league's best rate for a tackle with at least 300 snaps played. Jackson might have been a little lucky to get away with allowing pressures that often without those opportunities turning into too many sacks, but 25-year-old offensive linemen who go an entire season with just two sacks credited against them aren't exactly easy to come by.
The Rams could sign Jackson to a multi-year extension. If not, they'll end up tendering Jackson a one-year deal and have the right to match an offer sheet if he gets one from another team, getting a draft pick if they decline. The first-round tender would cost $6.8 million and return a top-32 pick if the Rams don't match, while the second-round tender would be $4.9 million. They can retain the right to match without getting any draft pick compensation at $3.1 million, but that would be taking a surprising level of risk for a player who should appeal to other teams.
Edge rushers
Tier 1: Franchise players
Free agents: None
Josh Allen (Jaguars) and Brian Burns (Panthers) would have landed here if they hadn't been tagged. As it stands, there could be a trade market for their services, with Burns as the more likely player to be dealt given the impasse between the Panthers and their star edge rusher over the past two offseasons.
I'm not sure the Panthers can count on landing the same sort of haul they would have received when they reportedly turned down an offer of two first-round picks and more from the Rams at the 2022 trade deadline, but Burns is still only 25 and has averaged nine sacks and 19 knockdowns per season.
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
Free agent: Danielle Hunter, Vikings
Hunter was a case of the rare NFL extension that is too team-friendly. Signed to a five-year, $72 million deal in June 2018, he followed with back-to-back 14.5-sack seasons and quickly became one of the NFL's more underpaid veterans. The Vikings ended up restructuring that deal twice, and when he conducted a hold-in last summer, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah gave him a new one-year deal that voided after the season, preventing Minnesota from using the franchise tag on its star.
At 29, Hunter finally hits unrestricted free agency for the first time. There's a lot of tread on his tires, as he has played more than 6,000 defensive snaps, which is roughly in line with Michael Bennett's entire career. He has played full seasons in each of the past two campaigns and six of his past eight, but he also missed 2020 with a neck injury and most of the 2021 campaign with a torn pectoral muscle.
Coming off a season with 16.5 sacks and a league-high 23 tackles for loss, there's no question Hunter will have a market. The big question for teams will be guaranteed years. To land Von Miller two years ago, the Bills had to give him two fully guaranteed years and a third practically guaranteed season, and that deal turned out to be a disaster. Hunter is younger and coming off a better season than Miller was in 2022. Hunter's résumé suggests that should be able to land three fully guaranteed seasons, but that will require a huge bet from a team and something north of $70 million in guarantees at signing. Would the Bears be willing to do that to pair Hunter with Montez Sweat?
Average annual salary projection: $26 million per season
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: Denico Autry, Titans; Jadeveon Clowney, Ravens; Leonard Floyd, Bills; Jonathan Greenard, Texans; Bryce Huff, Jets; Za'Darius Smith, Browns
Possible cap casualties: Haason Reddick, Eagles
There are lot of fun players here. Reddick might be the most interesting one, given that the Eagles reportedly gave him permission to explore a trade in advance of the final year of his deal. He's owed $16 million, which doesn't seem outlandish given his steady production; since being moved to edge rusher by the Cardinals in 2020, he has put together four consecutive seasons with double-digit sacks across three different franchises. He didn't play well down the stretch for the Eagles last season, but neither did anyone else on defense.
We can lump the other players into two groups. On the veteran side, there's Autry, Clowney, Floyd and Smith, all of whom have had unique career paths in their own respective ways. Floyd had the splashiest season, putting up 10.5 sacks in his debut year with the Bills, but he was also the 12th man on the field when the Broncos missed a game-winning field goal attempt in November, only for Denver to get another try and make it. This was Floyd's best season (without Aaron Donald's assistance), and he should get a comfortable raise from the $7 million the 31-year-old made last season.
Autry might currently be the league's most underrated player. Since leaving the Raiders in 2018, he has 48.5 sacks and 86 quarterback hits over the past six seasons. He also played a key role in a Titans run defense that has been among the NFL's best the past couple of seasons. His age (33) will limit his market, but he somehow continues to get better as he enters his mid-30s. He's probably best in a role where he can play on the outside on early downs and rush from the interior in passing situations.
Smith was signed to replace Clowney in Cleveland after the latter fell out of favor with management at the end of 2022. Both veterans have struggled with injuries and have conditions that will give teams pause: Clowney has spent his entire career battling knee issues, while Smith underwent back surgery in 2021. They've been inconsistent, with Smith posting 9.5 sacks over the first half of 2022 and a half-sack the rest of that season, while Clowney had a zero-sack season with the Titans in 2020 and a two-sack campaign with the Browns in 2022. Their overall level of play and underlying performance, though, suggest they can continue to contribute. They should sign one-year deals for eight figures.
Greenard and Huff, on the other hand, are about to get paid after posting career seasons. Greenard followed a 1.5-sack season with the Texans in 2022 by racking up 12.5 sacks and 22 knockdowns last season, while Huff more than doubled his career takedown total by generating 10 sacks and 21 knockdowns for the Jets as part of their defensive end rotation. Greenard played about 150 more defensive snaps than his New York counterpart, so Huff was more efficient as a pass-rusher on a snap-by-snap basis. Huff also had three sacks where he went essentially unblocked, though.
Greenard had an eight-sack season in 2021, but neither of these guys has a track record as his team's top pass-rusher. Should that be a warning sign? In the past, I wrote that it was, but recent results have argued in the other direction. Smith was a great signing for the Packers. Trey Hendrickson signed with the Bengals and transformed their defensive line after one impactful season in four years with the Saints. Paying for an outlier season is a good way to make mistakes in free agency, but the reward might be more likely to pay out than it has seemed in previous years.
Average annual salary projection: $10 million to $16 million per season
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: Dorance Armstrong, Cowboys; Mike Danna, Chiefs; Marcus Davenport, Vikings; Bud Dupree, Falcons; A.J. Epenesa, Bills; Randy Gregory, 49ers; Yannick Ngakoue, Bears; D.J. Wonnum, Vikings; Chase Young, 49ers
Possible cap casualties: Charles Omenihu, Chiefs
There's a game that will take place with the younger players in this tier. We know they can play in situational roles, but will a team that sees one of them as closer to an every-down player pay them like one? Armstrong has 15.5 sacks over the past two seasons in a situational role. Epenesa has 13 sacks over that time frame while playing less than 40% of Buffalo's defensive snaps. Wonnum has eight sacks in each of his two seasons as a starter. Danna has been a valuable two-way end for the Chiefs and played something close to a full-time role for the first time in 2023. Young has the pedigree as the 2020 No. 2 pick and a former elite prospect, although he suffered a serious knee injury in his second season. He is also only 24.
The veterans are a little easier to figure. Dupree had a bounce-back season for the Falcons after failing to impress on a bigger deal in Tennessee. Gregory didn't show much after being bounced out of Denver, though, and Ngakoue had his worst season. They're each probably looking at one-year pacts.
The guy in the middle is Davenport, whom the Saints once traded two first-round picks to acquire in the 2018 draft. He failed to live up to expectations consistently in New Orleans, and after signing a one-year, $13-million deal with the Vikings last year, he played only 118 snaps before undergoing surgery on a high-ankle sprain and never returning. He is still only 27 and is two seasons removed from a nine-sack, 16-knockdown campaign, but it's tough to see him landing a deal close to what he got from the Vikings a year ago.
There is a wider salary range for this tier than most others because of role uncertainty. Everyone above Tier 4 is going to be a starter. Just about everybody below is going to be a backup. Here, it only takes one team with a dramatically different opinion about a player to change his market.
Average annual salary projection: $6 million to $13 million per season
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: Derek Barnett, Texans; Zack Baun, Saints; Dante Fowler Jr., Cowboys; Brandon Graham, Eagles; Carl Lawson, Jets; Emmanuel Ogbah, Dolphins; Josh Uche, Patriots; Jihad Ward, Giants
Possible cap casualties: Lorenzo Carter, Falcons
The players in this section are generally going to be pass-rush fliers, many of whom didn't do much while buried on deep depth charts last season. Lawson never seemed to recover in the eyes of the Jets organization after tearing his left Achilles in 2021, while Ogbah was Miami's fourth-choice edge rusher before everybody in front of him got injured. Graham is another one of the longtime Eagles players who are likely to either retire or return to the only organization they've ever known.
Barnett was cut by the Eagles and flashed in a late-season cameo with the Texans; I'd love to see a desperate team finally give him the chance to play regularly after he was caught up in the Philly rotation for so long. Ward finally got the chance to start with the Giants over the past two years and was a solid-if-unspectacular edge defender. I would say I'm most interested in Uche, who had 11.5 sacks in a seven-game span with the Patriots in 2022 but otherwise has racked up seven sacks across his 44 other contests in New England, including just three sacks in 2023. Many of these players have at least one big season in their past, but Uche's was just a year ago and he's only 25.
Average annual salary projection: $2 million to $6 million per season
Tier 6: Backups likely to earn roster spot
Free agents: K'Lavon Chaisson, Jaguars; Mario Edwards Jr., Seahawks; Clelin Ferrell, 49ers; William Gholston, Buccaneers; Trevis Gipson, Titans; Markus Golden, Steelers; Yetur Gross-Matos, Panthers; Charles Harris, Lions; Marquis Haynes Sr., Panthers; Jerry Hughes, Texans; Shaq Lawson, Bills; Tyquan Lewis, Colts; Jake Martin, Colts; Romeo Okwara, Lions; James Smith-Williams, Commanders; Dawuane Smoot, Jaguars; Casey Toohill, Commanders
These guys are looking at fourth defensive end jobs in training camp or serving as injury fill-ins when players go down in camp. There are a couple former first-round picks: Chaisson never developed after being drafted two picks ahead of Justin Jefferson in the 2020 draft, while Ferrell didn't show much in San Francisco after leaving the Raiders and then missed the postseason with a knee injury.
Average annual salary projection: $1 million to $2 million per season
Restricted free agents: James Houston, Lions; Jonathan Ledbetter, Cardinals; Darrell Taylor, Seahawks; Jonah Williams, Rams
Houston, who had eight sacks as a rookie in 2022 before missing most of 2023 with a broken ankle, is an exclusive rights free agent and will be back with Detroit.
The most notable name here is Taylor, the 2020 second-rounder who missed all of his rookie season after undergoing surgery on his shin for a college injury. He has 21.5 sacks over the past three seasons in a situational role, but the Seahawks seem likely to give him a meaningful tender to avoid losing him for nothing.
Interior defensive linemen
Tier 1: Franchise players
Free agent: Chris Jones, Chiefs
I mean, you saw the postseason, right? The Chiefs don't win the Super Bowl without Jones, who hurried Bills' Josh Allen into an incompletion on what could have been a fourth-quarter touchdown pass in the divisional round, then blew up two should-be touchdown passes with Brock Purdy pressures in the Super Bowl. Jones dropped from 15.5 sacks in 2022 to 10.5, but he still managed 29 knockdowns, 13 tackles for loss and ranked second in pass rush win rate on the interior behind Aaron Donald.
Franchising Jones wasn't really an option, given that the 29-year-old had a $26.8 million cap hit in 2023, meaning the franchise tag would have cost the Chiefs $32.2 million as opposed to the typical defensive tackle franchise tag figure of $22.1 million. There were criticisms early in his career that he had a habit of taking snaps off, but those have faded as his time in the league has gone along. And frankly, if taking snaps off means he is as dominant in the postseason as he has been in big moments, other players should follow in his footsteps.
The top of the defensive tackle market has been impacted by the three-year, $95 million deal Donald signed with the Rams in 2022. With the Rams paying Donald elite edge rusher money, the DT market jumped from an average annual salary of $22.5 million per year to $31.7 million per season and created a negotiating disconnect between Jones and the Chiefs. The best defensive tackle to sign a deal since then, Tennessee's Jeffery Simmons, signed for $26.2 million per season.
Simmons wasn't an unrestricted free agent, though, and Jones will be able to point toward his impact in back-to-back Super Bowl championships as proof he should be considered a Donald-esque talent. I can see a scenario where he gets $33 million per year in terms of value on paper, but where the money is more like $25 million per season over the first three years with $60 million guaranteed at signing. Could he be the big signing the Texans make as they leverage C.J. Stroud's and Will Anderson Jr.'s rookie deals?
Average annual salary projection: $28 million to $34 million per season
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
Free agent: Christian Wilkins, Dolphins
Wilkins didn't have the sort of season Justin Madubuike enjoyed in Baltimore -- Madubuike would have made this tier if he wasn't tagged earlier this week -- but with nine sacks and 23 knockdowns, he also had a career year. Wilkins' tape was ahead of his numbers in prior seasons, so 2023 felt like a case where the numbers were more aligned with his already established reputation. Doing that in a Vic Fangio scheme where interior defensive linemen are asked to take on gap-and-a-half responsibilities to help make the numbers work speaks to Wilkins' skill.
The Dolphins decided against franchising him; perhaps they believe his market won't be as robust as the 28-year-old hopes.
Average annual salary projection: $19 million to $25 million per season
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: Calais Campbell, Falcons; Sheldon Rankins, Texans; D.J. Reader, Bengals; Grover Stewart, Colts; Leonard Williams, Seahawks
Possible cap casualty: John Franklin-Myers, Jets
All of these guys are more valuable than their numbers would suggest. Campbell is somehow still playing at a high level at 37 years old; the Falcons' pressure rate jumped from 25.6% without him on the field to 32.4% with him between the lines. Williams' contract was too generous and his 2020 season (11.5 sacks, 30 knockdowns) looms as an obvious outlier in his career, but he has been a steadily productive two-way interior defender. Reader was an essential part of Cincinnati's turnaround before tearing a quad in December, which could slow his market.
Rankins might be the lone exception here as more of a traditional one-gap pass-rusher on the interior, where he racked up six sacks and 10 knockdowns for the Texans last season. He was a better fit there than during his time on the Jets. Franklin-Myers is still a useful player and routinely racks up 15-20 knockdowns per season, but with an unguaranteed $13.3 million base salary, the Jets might have to sacrifice him if they want to bring back Bryce Huff. They are very different sorts of defensive linemen, but replacing Huff might be harder than replacing the more expensive Franklin-Myers.
Average annual salary projection: $9 million to $13 million per season
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: Fletcher Cox, Eagles; Folorunso Fatukasi, Jaguars; Quinton Jefferson, Jets; DaQuan Jones, Bills; Justin Jones, Bears; Javon Kinlaw, 49ers; Derrick Nnadi, Chiefs
Possible cap casualties: Larry Ogunjobi, Steelers
Unlike the Tier 4 edge rushers, this group is more locked into situational roles, but that doesn't mean these players can't make an impact. Jefferson had his best season with the Jets. Cox, who is likely to either stay with the Eagles or retire, managed 17 quarterback knockdowns at age 33. Kinlaw was replaced in the starting lineup by Javon Hargrave and apparently took the benching to heart, as he produced his best tape as a pro. I wonder if he ends up with one of the former 49ers outposts around the NFL.
Ogunjobi was an underrated player with the Browns and had an impressive lone season with the Bengals in 2021, but I'm not sure his two-year run with the Steelers has worked out. He has $9.8 million in compensation coming in 2024, but none of that is guaranteed. Pittsburgh could free up nearly $10 million in space by designating him as a post-June 1 release.
Average annual salary projection: $4 million to $7 million per season
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: Taven Bryan, Colts; Jonathan Bullard, Vikings; Jordan Elliott, Browns; Greg Gaines, Buccaneers; Maurice Hurst II, Browns; Austin Johnson, Chargers; Bilal Nichols, Raiders; A'Shawn Robinson, Giants
Possible cap casualties: Dean Lowry, Vikings
Many of the players here are nose tackles or run-stuffing defensive linemen who don't offer anything in terms of rushing the passer. Every team needs a guy or two like that on its roster, but there are a lot of big bodies to go around.
Robinson played a huge role for the Rams as they played light boxes in a Fangio-style defense and won the Super Bowl in 2021. This year, the key example might have been Mike Pennel, a journeyman who rejoined the Chiefs' practice squad in midseason, debuted in December and then played a regular role on early downs for much of the postseason. (He is in the next tier.)
Average annual salary projection: $1.5 million to $4 million per season
Tier 6: Backups likely to earn roster spot
Free agents: Montravius Adams, Steelers; Raekwon Davis, Dolphins; Poona Ford, Bills; Leki Fotu, Cardinals; Neville Gallimore, Cowboys; Kevin Givens, 49ers; Rasheem Green, Bears; Lawrence Guy Sr., Patriots; Jonathan Harris, Broncos; Shelby Harris, Browns; John Jenkins, Raiders; Sebastian Joseph-Day, 49ers; Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Giants; Mike Pennel, Chiefs; Jordan Phillips, Bills; Hassan Ridgeway, Texans; Malcolm Roach, Saints; Tim Settle, Bills; Teair Tart, Texans; Solomon Thomas, Jets; Josh Tupou, Bengals; Armon Watts, Steelers; Tershawn Wharton, Chiefs; Al Woods, Jets
The final tier of interior linemen will be competing in camp for opportunities. In some cases, they might end up making an impact on a different team; Joseph-Day started the season with the Chargers, was cut in December, signed with the 49ers and ended up playing 19 snaps during the postseason. Defensive tackle can be more plug-and-play than other positions, so teams are more aggressive adding (or removing) players from their rotations midseason.
Average annual salary projection: $1 million per season
Restricted free agents: Jeremiah Ledbetter, Jaguars; Mike Hoecht, Rams; Albert Huggins, Falcons; Benito Jones, Lions; Khyiris Tonga, Vikings
Hoecht made a name for himself as a supersize defensive end at 310 pounds, but realistically, his best role is playing on the interior. He has 10.5 sacks and 20 knockdowns over the past two seasons and was a full-time starter for the Rams in 2023, so there will be a market for him unless the Rams give him a meaningful tender or sign him to an extension.
Linebackers
Tier 1: Franchise players
Free agents: None
The off-ball linebacker position typically sees more franchise-caliber players hit the market than other positions, given that teams are often willing to draft and develop those players. The top off-ball linebacker contracts on the books include big deals for C.J. Mosley, Tremaine Edmunds and Foyesade Oluokun, all of whom were signed in free agency. This year, though, nobody fits the bill as a franchise-caliber player on the open market.
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
Free agents: Patrick Queen, Ravens
The closest thing to a franchise player might be Queen, who had a relatively disappointing first 2½ seasons in the league. When the Ravens traded for Roquan Smith, the deal was partly a reflection on Queen's failure to develop into Mosley's replacement. It unlocked a new level in Queen, however, and he played his best football alongside Smith. Queen improved to good in 2022 and was very good in 2023, producing career lows in yards per completion and yards per target.
With the Ravens signing Smith to a massive deal and declining Queen's fifth-year option last May, the writing is on the wall for his future in Baltimore. The Ravens will pocket a comp pick and move on. The easy landing spot for Smith is Seattle, where Jordyn Brooks and Bobby Wagner are both free agents and former Ravens coordinator Mike Macdonald has taken over as coach. I'm not sure that's as simple of a fit as some have made it out to be, but Queen should end up getting something close to an Edmunds-sized deal somewhere this offseason.
Average annual salary projection: $16 million to $18 million
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: Jerome Baker, Dolphins; Jordyn Brooks, Seahawks; Lavonte David, Buccaneers; Willie Gay, Chiefs; Jordan Hicks, Vikings; Josey Jewell, Broncos; Frankie Luvu, Panthers; Andrew Van Ginkel, Dolphins; Devin White, Buccaneers; Bobby Wagner, Seahawks
The market gets flooded with Tier 3 and below linebackers every year, which undercuts their negotiating value. It's a good place to find talented players, but don't be surprised if a lot of these guys sign one-year deals and are back in the market again in 2025.
Let's start with the two Buccaneers linebackers who helped push Tampa Bay to a Super Bowl three years ago. David had a resurgent season in his 12th pro campaign, as his 4.5 sacks and 17 tackles for loss were the most he has posted since 2016. He also whiffed on just 6.3% of his tackle attempts, his lowest mark in six years of tracking data. At 34, he's not as spry as he once was, but he is still a useful player.
He might get a bigger deal than White, who was a second-team All-Pro in 2020 and a Pro Bowler in 2021. White was the NFC's Defensive Player of the Month in September 2022, but things have mostly gone downhill since, with teams taking advantage of him in the run game. His passer rating in coverage improved from 104.9 in 2022 to 65.5 in 2023, but the Bucs seemed to grow sick of their 2019 first-round pick. White missed three games with a foot injury amid rumors he was frustrated about splitting time with K.J. Britt. After playing all of the division-clinching win over the Panthers in Week 18, he played just 40 of the 133 defensive snaps behind Britt during Tampa's two postseason games. He's probably looking at a one-year prove-it deal elsewhere.
Even while considering big names such as David, White and Wagner, three of the younger players in this tier intrigue me. Gay is an excellent player whom the Chiefs were comfortable using as their spy on quarterbacks Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Mobile passers aren't going anywhere, and there aren't many linebackers as fast as Gay. Luvu was a Pro Bowl-caliber player in 2022 and made a ton of plays for the Panthers, although his missed tackle rate more than doubled in 2023. I'd like to see him surrounded by more talent than he has played with in Carolina.
The most intriguing player might be Van Ginkel, who played both as an off-ball linebacker and edge rusher during his time in Miami and made an impact in both places. He had seven batted passes and 20 quarterback knockdowns in 2021, then added eight deflections and 19 quarterback hits for Vic Fangio's defense this past season before suffering a foot injury in the season finale. More than Queen, Van Ginkel is the sort of player who could thrive in Macdonald's defense in Seattle.
Average annual salary projection: $7 million to $10 million
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: Azeez Al-Shaair, Titans; Blake Cashman, Texans; Anfernee Jennings, Patriots; Eric Kendricks, Chargers; Denzel Perryman, Texans; Sione Takitaki, Browns
Possible cap casualties: De'Vondre Campbell, Packers; Cole Holcomb, Steelers
There's a bunch of two-down thumpers here, with Jennings and Perryman as two examples at different stages of their careers. Ran Carthon's presence as general manager in Tennessee might make it more likely fellow former 49ers product Al-Shaair stays with the Titans, although the Niners might lock up their former starter as a short-term replacement for Dre Greenlaw after the ferocious linebacker tore his left Achilles during the Super Bowl.
The cap casualties might have to each take pay cuts if they want to stay in their current gigs. Campbell had a stunning season in 2021 after signing as an afterthought with the Packers, but he hasn't been able to live up to that standard since and allowed a 111.2 passer rating in coverage in 2023. Holcomb suffered a serious knee injury in November, while Kendricks failed to right the ship for Brandon Staley's defense and was due $6.5 million in compensation this offseason before being released by a Chargers team that needed to create cap space.
Average annual salary projection: $3 million to $5 million
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: Cody Barton, Commanders; Devin Bush, Seahawks; Zach Cunningham, Eagles; Tyrel Dodson, Bills; Shaq Leonard, Eagles; Kenneth Murray, Chargers; Isaiah Simmons, Giants; Anthony Walker, Browns; Mack Wilson, Patriots
There's a handful of prominent past first-round picks here in Bush, Murray and Simmons, but they all need to be spotted into part-time roles. Backup linebackers typically need to contribute on special teams, which is why Bush and Simmons had their roles expand on kicks and punts with their new teams in 2023; Murray -- who was drafted two picks before Brandon Aiyuk and four picks before Queen in 2020 -- will need to start playing on special teams if he wants to have an extended career.
Cunningham and Leonard are two former AFC South standouts who failed to impress in Philadelphia. Cunningham might have been the Eagles' best linebacker when healthy, which is some of the faintest praise you will ever read. Leonard was a celebrated signing when the Eagles obtained him in December, but there was a reason the Colts weren't playing the four-time Pro Bowler on third downs. He allowed a 123.8 passer rating in coverage in Philadelphia and was benched during the playoff loss to the Bucs. The 28-year-old hasn't looked the same since he underwent back surgeries in 2022.
Average annual salary projection: $1.5 million to $3 million
Tier 6: Backups likely to earn roster spots
Free agents: Kwon Alexander, Steelers; Oren Burks, 49ers; Kamu Grugier-Hill, Panthers; Malik Harrison, Ravens; Nicholas Morrow, Eagles; Khaleke Hudson, Commanders; Josh Woods, Cardinals
Burks was last seen filling in for Greenlaw as an every-down linebacker during the Super Bowl. Alexander's stop in Pittsburgh was his fourth team in as many seasons, with the former Buccaneers and 49ers linebacker called upon to fill in after the Steelers were beset by injuries. Grugier-Hill is stretched as a starting linebacker, but he's a core special-teamer and even an emergency kicker.
Average annual salary projection: $1 million
Restricted free agents: Jack Gibbens, Titans; Christian Rozeboom, Rams
Gibbens is an exclusive rights free agent, so the 13-game starter will likely be back at modest cost. The Rams gave Rozeboom about half of the defensive snaps, but his role seemed to diminish as the season went along. There's a chance he ends up non-tendered.
Defensive backs
Tier 1: Franchise players
Free agents: None
Both cornerback L'Jarius Sneed (Chiefs) and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) were in this tier before they were franchise tagged. Here's what I wrote about them:
Sneed was a shutdown cornerback against top wideouts for Steve Spagnuolo's Kansas City defense, which played man at one of the league's highest rates and asked him to cover players all around the field. The Chiefs already have suggested they'll use the franchise tag to extend their negotiating window with him, although that might end in a trade. The Chiefs used the tag on edge rusher Dee Ford in 2019 before trading him to the 49ers for a second-round pick.
Winfield filled up the stat sheet in 2023, racking up six sacks, six forced fumbles, eight quarterback hits, 122 tackles and three interceptions. You can make a pretty exclusive group out of those numbers: He was the fourth player in NFL history to generate at least five sacks, five forced fumbles, 100 tackles and two picks in a season, joining James Harrison, Jerrell Freeman and NaVorro Bowman. The other three players were linebackers, which speaks to Winfield's range; he lined up all over the place last season, serving both as a free safety, strong safety, slot corner and even the occasional snap as a linebacker.
The Bucs can franchise him at a reasonable price ($17.1 million), but they have a free agent class that includes Lavonte David, Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield, so they might want to use the tag elsewhere and/or keep their cap space open to try to retain as many outgoing free agents as possible. Some teams don't value safety as a premium position, while others will trade two first-round picks to acquire Jamal Adams.
Average annual salary projection: $22 million per year (cornerback), $20 million per year (safety)
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
Free agents: CB Xavien Howard, Dolphins; S Justin Simmons, Broncos
Howard will want to find a defense that moves him around more often. Stuck on one side of the field in Vic Fangio's Miami defense, the four-time Pro Bowler wasn't able to impact games the way he had in previous years. Miami's Week 4 loss to the Bills was a classic example, with Jalen Ramsey injured and Buffalo picking apart the cornerbacks on the right side of the defense, while Howard languished on the left side.
Howard's calling card has been takeaways, and after having 15 combined interceptions in 2020 and 2021, the Dolphins ripped up his contract and gave him a brand new deal. He had just two picks over the ensuing two seasons. He can still be an upper-echelon cornerback, but he also might not find a huge market. Teams are wary of cornerbacks after they turn 30, and he battled a foot injury a year ago. Remember that Ramsey, who was two years younger and didn't have the same recent injury concerns, had a much less significant trade market than many would have expected last offseason. Howard, who turns 31 this summer, might not be able to land a significant multiyear guarantee.
Two more tags were used on players originally in this tier in safety Kyle Dugger (Patriots), who got the transition tag, and cornerback Jaylon Johnson (Bears), who got the franchise tag before being signed to a four-year, $76 million extension. Here's what I wrote about them before they were tagged:
Dugger became a building block for a Patriots defense that was still quietly effective in Bill Belichick's final season; the Pats ranked first in points allowed per drive during the second half of the season, even without standouts Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez. Dugger's range and ability to thump near the line of scrimmage provided the few bursts of excitement Patriots fans have seen over the past two seasons. He also posted a career-low missed tackle rate last season.
The Pats have the league's most cap space heading into free agency, but they might not want to prioritize using that money on a safety. While Dugger played free safety more often in 2023 than he did in 2022, he's still probably best around the line of scrimmage.
After a promising rookie season, a disappointing sophomore campaign and an injury-hit 2022, Johnson put together an excellent contract year for Chicago. He allowed a 50.9 passer rating in coverage, which ranked third among cornerbacks, behind Derek Stingley Jr. and Martin Emerson Jr. He did that while playing behind a pass rush that wasn't good for most of the year, and at 24, he's one of the youngest free agents in this class.
There are also reasons to be concerned. Johnson played in one of the league's most zone-heavy schemes, which might make it tough for his performance to translate to more man-focused coverages. He had just one interception through his first three seasons before nabbing four picks in 2023. And even in this breakout campaign, he missed three games and more than half of two other games with injuries; he has missed 15 of 68 possible games over his four-year career with various knocks. Johnson is one of the higher risk/reward options available in free agency.
Average annual salary projection: $14-18 million per year
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: S Jamal Adams, Seahawks; CB Chidobe Awuzie, Bengals; S Julian Blackmon, Colts; S Kam Curl, Commanders; S Quandre Diggs, Seahawks; CB/S C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Lions; CB Stephon Gilmore, Cowboys; S Micah Hyde, Bills; CB Adoree' Jackson, Giants; S Rayshawn Jenkins, Jaguars; CB Jourdan Lewis, Cowboys; S Xavier McKinney, Giants; CB Kenny Moore II, Colts; S Jordan Poyer, Bills; CB Tre'Davious White, Bills; S Jordan Whitehead, Jets; CB Darious Williams, Jaguars; CB Ahkello Witherspoon, Rams
Possible cap casualty: CB Jaire Alexander, Packers
There are lots of options here. Some of the bigger names have had their career paths affected by injuries. Adams has missed 30 games over the past three seasons, and a cap hit of nearly $27 million led the Seahawks to part ways with the former Jets starter after once trading two first-round picks to acquire him. Hyde's 33 and battled neck and hamstring injuries over the last two years. They're joined on the open market by their former teammates in Diggs, Poyer and White, all of whom were cap casualties.
Alexander missed 13 games in 2021 and 10 more in 2023 with his own injuries. He allowed a 113.4 passer rating in coverage last season. Plus, he was suspended after making the curious decision to go into business for himself during the coin toss in the Packers' game against the Panthers. Awuzie was playing at an All-Pro level in 2022 before tearing an ACL and didn't return to a full-time role until late in 2023. White's run as an elite cornerback has been compromised by a run of serious injuries, most recently a torn Achilles last October.
The younger players are probably going to be more compelling for teams in terms of multiyear deals, especially at safety. Blackmon allowed just a 46.6 passer rating in coverage and dropped his missed tackle rate from 15.3% to 4.3%. McKinney played every single defensive snap for the Giants and has exhibited the versatility to play all over the field, making it easier for coordinators to mask their post-snap intentions. Whitehead had four picks and nine pass breakups in a career season, including three in the Jets' Week 1 win over the Bills.
At corner, Witherspoon signed with the Rams for $1 million and allowed a 75.7 passer rating in coverage. At 6-foot-3, he has rare measurables, but can he repeat his career year? I'll be intrigued to see if new Atlanta coach Raheem Morris pursues a reunion with his former Rams corner. Gilmore still played at a high level last season, although he was one of the many Cowboys to have a brutal day in the season-ending loss to the Packers. Lewis and Moore have been two of the better slot corners in the league at their peak. Gardner-Johnson can play slot corner and safety, although he didn't have a huge free agent market last year and then missed most of the season with a torn pectoral muscle. There might be bargains in this tier if teams are willing to be patient.
Average annual salary projection: $10-14 million per year (cornerback), $8-12 million per year (safety)
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: CB Myles Bryant, Patriots; S Kevin Byard, Eagles; CB Michael Davis, Chargers; S Mike Edwards, Chiefs; S Jordan Fuller, Rams; CB Kristian Fulton, Titans; S Tashaun Gipson, 49ers; S Alohi Gilman, Chargers; S Jayron Kearse, Cowboys; S Darnell Savage, Packers; S Geno Stone, Ravens; CB Levi Wallace, Steelers
Here's where a team is going to find a bargain, especially if a lot of the Tier 3 defensive backs get big deals. There are some intriguing players here who might be this year's Witherspoon and break out if given a chance to start all season on the right team.
Davis was a solid starter for most of his time in Los Angeles before losing his starting job in 2022, regaining it after J.C. Jackson got hurt, then struggling mightily in 2023. Fulton looked on the path to becoming a Pro Bowl-caliber corner in 2021, then couldn't stay healthy or repeat that level regularly. Savage looked like a difference-maker earlier in his career before falling off a cliff; he has been everything from an every-down player to a benched special-teamer over the past two seasons.
I wonder whether teams will be more interested in the guys who played their best football in 2023. Bryant saw steady snaps for the Patriots at cornerback, although his coverage numbers weren't impressive. He can also contribute on returns. Fuller returned from a 2022 ruined by injury and did a solid job at free safety for a resurgent Rams defense. Gilman and Stone moved into the starting lineup and held their own, albeit on defenses of different qualities. Edwards returned to the third safety role he played for most of his time in Tampa on a one-year deal with the Chiefs, but after Bryan Cook got hurt, the 27-year-old held his own as an every-down safety through Kansas City's Super Bowl run.
I'd want to take a shot on the players who have shown higher ceilings during their rookie deals, but there's something to be said for a player whose most recent tape was his best.
Average annual salary projection: $6-8.5 million per year (cornerback), $4-6.5 million per year (safety)
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: S Jeremy Chinn, Panthers; S Terrell Edmunds, Titans; S Deshon Elliott, Dolphins; CB Kendall Fuller, Commanders; CB Dane Jackson, Bills; S Eddie Jackson, Bears; S Kareem Jackson, Texans; CB/S Avonte Maddox, Eagles; CB Siran Neal, Bills; CB Steven Nelson, Texans; CB Keisean Nixon, Packers; CB Jeff Okudah, Falcons; S Jonathan Owens, Packers; S Jeremy Reaves, Commanders; CB Rock Ya-Sin, Ravens
Possible cap casualty: S Nick Scott, Bengals
This is the range in which we're looking at fourth cornerbacks and third safeties; those guys typically need to either have starter upside or play special teams to survive in the league. In the case of Nixon and Reaves, their primary impact is going to be as valuable special-teamers as opposed to defensive players, although Nixon did play regularly as a cornerback for the Packers last season.
It's going to be tough for the veterans on this list, several of whom just finished up big deals or who will have to take pay cuts from what they made a year ago. Fuller, Ya-Sin and Eddie Jackson still have something to offer, but they're probably not stepping into Week 1 starting roles the way they might have in previous seasons. Some vets are happy to call it a day at that point. Others hang on. Kareem Jackson is seemingly going to be out there committing personal fouls until the league stops letting him onto the field.
There are also players in this tier who appeared to be on the path to stardom years ago. Chinn was second in the Defensive Rookie of the Year balloting in 2020 but never seemed to launch. He wasn't a regular most of the Panthers' 2023 season, even when he was healthy. Okudah was the No. 3 overall pick in that 2020 draft and was quickly befallen by Matt Patricia and a torn Achilles in consecutive seasons in Detroit. Okudah didn't lock down a role in a desperate Lions secondary in 2022 and was benched late in the 2023 season by the Falcons. It appears Chinn and Okudah need a fresh start somewhere else.
Average annual salary projection: $2-4 million per year (cornerback), $1.5-3 million per year (safety)
Tier 6: Backups likely to earn roster spots
Free agents: S Adrian Amos, Texans; CB Eli Apple, Dolphins; S Chuck Clark, Jets; CB Ronald Darby, Ravens; S Ashtyn Davis, Jets; CB Shaq Griffin, Panthers; CB Bryce Hall, Jets; CB Tre Herndon, Jaguars; S Will Harris, Lions; CB J.C. Jackson, Patriots; S John Johnson, Rams; S Brandon Jones, Dolphins; S P.J. Locke, Broncos; CB Arthur Maulet, Ravens; CB/S Jalen Mills, Patriots; CB Fabian Moreau, Broncos; CB Emmanuel Moseley, Lions; CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, Titans; CB Isaiah Oliver, 49ers; CB Chandon Sullivan, Steelers; CB Kindle Vildor, Lions; S Tracy Walker, Lions; S K'Von Wallace, Titans; CB Isaac Yiadom, Saints
This is a lot of players, many of whom are going to be either trying to catch on with old coaches in new places or waiting to fill a void when someone gets injured during training camp. Veterans such as Apple, Darby and Johnson were on their couches for most of last summer but on the field by the time the playoffs rolled around. Vildor was on the Titans' and Eagles' rosters in 2023 before making it to the Lions, where he didn't make his debut until Week 14. He was an every-down corner by Week 17 and into the postseason, when he famously had a Brock Purdy pass bounce off his helmet and into the hands of Brandon Aiyuk to help fuel a 49ers comeback.
I have my favorites. Apple has been a meme for several years now, but he keeps finding a way to end up as a starting cornerback on a playoff team season after season. Maulet is a good special-teamer and was a wildly successful slot blitzer in Baltimore last season. Johnson was a star earlier in his career with the Rams and solidified their defense after entering the starting lineup at midseason in 2023.
Good coaches will find the right way to use these guys in an appropriate role; lesser coaches will try to plug them in as replacements for injured or disappointing starters with mixed results.
Average annual salary projection: $1-2 million per year
Restricted free agents: CB Jerry Jacobs, Lions; CB Mike Jackson, Seahawks
Jacobs was a starter most of the season with the Lions before suffering a hamstring injury, which limited him to one defensive snap from Week 15 onward. Vildor took over as the starting corner from that point forward. The Lions have said they won't tender him.
Jackson was a pleasant surprise as a full-season starter for the Seahawks in 2022, but Tre Brown and Devon Witherspoon took snaps away from him in 2023. He would go from riding the bench one week to playing the majority of the snaps the next, then back to the bench shortly thereafter. A steadier diet of playing time might help.