Kirk Cousins is headed to the Atlanta Falcons. The veteran quarterback, who has spent the past six seasons with the Minnesota Vikings, agreed to a four-year, $180 million deal with $90 million fully guaranteed on Monday. Cousins will join a Falcons offense that includes dynamic playmakers at the skill positions and an expensive offensive line.
Did the Falcons pay too much for Cousins, who is coming off an Achilles tear? Are they now contenders in the NFC? Let's grade the deal.
To determine this grade, I'm taking into account multiple factors, including on-field impact, salary cap implications, Cousins' age and the context of the Falcons' short-and long-term outlook.
Grading the Falcons' signing of Kirk Cousins
The Falcons just fully guaranteed $90 million to a 35-year-old non-elite quarterback coming off an Achilles injury, and yet ... I don't hate it.
We'll come back to Cousins himself, but I want to start this with where the Falcons are, because that's why this deal is both palatable and logical. When new Falcons coach Raheem Morris said last month, "If we had better quarterback play last year in Atlanta, I might not be standing here," that was very much the truth!
The Falcons already have the building blocks for a high win total if they can get strong quarterback play, as they boast two good playmakers in Drake London and Bijan Robinson, a solid pass-protecting offensive line and a defense -- led by 2023 free agent acquisition Jessie Bates III -- that ranked 12th in expected points added (EPA) per play last season. And critically, they play in a woefully weak division in the NFC South. All of that screams: Go get better play at quarterback now, and that's exactly what they did.
In Cousins, the Falcons have acquired a long-time good-but-not-perfect quarterback. In an optimal environment, a team could be a true contender with him under center. He also was having one of his best seasons prior to the injury. In eight games before his injury last season, Cousins had a 63 QBR, which ranked seventh in the league, and a 5% completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which ranked second-best and is a sign of his accuracy. He also had a league-low 11% off-target rate. He was better than average at avoiding interceptions (1.5% interception rate) and sacks (5.2% sack rate). And he only had Justin Jefferson in five of the eight games in which he played.
Just looking at those numbers, however, paints an overly optimistic view of Cousins. Why consider half a season when we have a much larger sample to evaluate? Over the past three seasons, some of what I said above holds true. Cousins is accurate, and his 3% completion percentage over expectation reflects that (he ranks third in the NFL over this timeframe). He's above-average at interception and sack avoidance. But the overall production hasn't been as strong, as he ranked 15th in QBR in 2021 and 23rd (!) in 2022.
An upside here is that while Cousins is moving teams after playing so well in 2023, he is also going from playing for one former Sean McVay assistant (Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell) to another (Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson), which presumably should lead to schematic familiarity.
Pat McAfee shares his thoughts on Kirk Cousins agreeing to a four-year deal with the Atlanta Falcons.
At $45 million per year and $90 million fully guaranteed, this is big money but not exorbitant. According to data from OverTheCap, $45 million in 2024 is the salary cap inflation adjusted equivalent of Jared Goff's 2019 extension with the Rams or Daniel Jones' extension with the Giants last offseason (gulp). And at $90 million fully guaranteed, Atlanta is certainly taking a risk given Cousins' health and age, but it's not an overwhelming risk considering the outsized importance of quarterback and his history of solid play.
The Falcons have more work to do. They need a wide receiver opposite London -- owning the No. 8 overall pick in this receiver-heavy draft looks like a good place to address that -- and they could use an edge rusher. But almost no matter which version of Cousins they get, they will have significantly upgraded at quarterback. And that makes them, in my book, already solid favorites to win the NFC South.