Without MMA last week, most fans were left to contemplate whether Tito Ortiz can still take a punch or if Evander Holyfield can still throw one. Triller provided clear answers for both: "no."
But now MMA is back, and the UFC kicks off nine straight weeks of fight cards that will take fans all the way to Thanksgiving without a break. First up is two light heavyweights trying to get into the title picture of a division that feels crowded with contenders, unless Jon Jones can return to it.
Prelims start at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Light heavyweight main event: No. 6 Anthony Smith (-170) vs. No. 11 Ryan Spann (+145)
On paper, Spann certainly seems to have lots of performance advantages over Smith. But for Smith, odds don't seem to matter. He has outperformed in plenty of upsets and also shown inhuman resilience in defeat. He's a tricky one to predict, to say the least.
In terms of his matchup with Spann, it remains tricky. Spann appears to be the more dangerous distance striker, and his grappling stats appear a little stronger than Smith, with Spann seeing most of his wins by submission. But on the mat is where those numbers are most likely skewed.
Smith has faced the elite of the division, and in victory and defeat has fought off his back against more elite talent than Spann has faced. On strength of schedule, we might deflate our expectations of Spann on the mat, especially as the fight wears on.
Which brings us to fight duration. Spann doesn't have a lot of experience going the distance, and if he doesn't put someone away early, his advantage could dissipate. That happens to be when Smith excels, and this will be a five-round main event.
Assuming Smith's experience is enough to weather the early storm, we're expecting him to eventually gain the upper hand and maybe score a late submission. With the total at 3.5 rounds, it means Spann will be the under play, while Smith is more likely during the over.
E+ recommends: Money line lean on Smith, assuming he remains safely above -200 odds.
Best bets elsewhere on the card
The co-main also pairs light heavyweights, but it could see more initial violence than the main event to follow. That's because Ion Cutelaba (-145) doesn't like going to the scorecards. He fights aggressively, less concerned with eating punches as long as he's storming forward on offense. His opponent Devin Clark (+125) will be the one trying to get the fight to the ground, but Cutelaba's takedown defense is well above average.
This will likely play out as Clark's wrestling versus Cutelaba's high-pressure striking. The odds are tight, but the lean supports a small stab on Cutelaba to win enough points on the feet to offset time he might spend on his back. He might also get a striking finish.
E+ recommends: Money line play on Cutelaba.
For a safe parlay anchor, consider Arman Tsarukyan (-800), who unfortunately is likely to be the steepest betting favorite on the card. The numbers agree, though he won't offer much return as a straight play against Christos Giagos (+525).
Tsarukyan will be the busier fighter on the feet and likely the one getting the better of the ground game, despite Giagos being primarily a grappler.
E+ recommends: Parlay Tsarukyan with a mild favorite to get a near even return.