Rivalry Week was a fitting end to an unpredictable regular season filled with upsets that changed the College Football Playoff picture almost every week. No game was more impactful Saturday than The Game, which should catapult Michigan into the top four and eliminate two-loss Ohio State from playoff consideration. Oklahoma State's thrilling last-minute win against rival Oklahoma also knocked the Sooners -- who were a long shot to begin with -- out for good.
While Tuesday's ranking likely will include some combination of Georgia, Michigan, Alabama and Cincinnati, three of those four teams shouldn't feel too comfortable.
Here's why:
Michigan needs to win the Big Ten -- and the Big Ten needs Michigan to win.
Yes, the Big Ten could be left out of the playoff. The selection committee would consider two-loss Iowa if the Hawkeyes win the Big Ten, but probably not for long. A win against Michigan would be one of the best in the country, but it would also be Iowa's only win against a CFP Top 25 opponent. It would also have to outweigh losses to Purdue and Wisconsin.
Michigan's only loss was to Michigan State, but a loss to Iowa and no Big Ten title would be a dagger. If the Big Ten were left out, the top four could include Georgia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame and Oklahoma State. It could also include two SEC teams, but ...
Alabama's chances as a two-loss SEC runner-up are decreasing.
There has been a lot of speculation about whether Alabama could finish in the top four if it loses a close game to Georgia in the SEC championship, and while it remains a possibility, the likelihood of it appears to be shrinking each week.
Alabama has played it close on multiple occasions this year -- and Saturday against rival Auburn, almost cost the Tide a spot in the top four. Alabama has repeatedly shown its vulnerabilities this fall on both sides of the ball, particularly in a 20-14 win against LSU and again last week in a 42-35 win against Arkansas. Last week was the first time the selection committee dropped Alabama in its ranking following a win.
It could happen again this week, as the only question around the top four is if Alabama should sink to No. 4 behind Cincinnati. Regardless, if Alabama beats Georgia to win the SEC, both teams will almost certainly finish in the top four.
That's a scenario that should cause some concern for Cincinnati.
Cincinnati's playoff position has improved every week, but it still isn't a lock.
If Georgia beats Alabama soundly, knocking the two-loss Tide out of the conversation for good, and Cincinnati finishes as an undefeated conference champion, then the Bearcats would seem like a done deal in the top four.
That's because they could finish in the top four with one-loss Oklahoma State or Notre Dame instead of possibly getting elbowed out by one of them. The top four in that scenario would probably be Georgia, Michigan, Oklahoma State and Cincinnati.
Friday night's win at East Carolina wasn't flawless, but Cincinnati again found a way to win and should remain in the top four when the committee's fifth of six rankings is revealed Tuesday. The Bearcats could earn some consideration this week for moving to No. 3 ahead of Alabama, which could drop to No. 4 after needing four overtimes to beat Auburn.
The Big 12's best-case scenario is unfolding.
Oklahoma State's win in Bedlam was exactly what the league needed because the selection committee has favored the Cowboys over the Sooners in each of its rankings this season, and they were the league's most realistic hope at a top-four spot. Plus, instead of facing the Sooners twice in two weeks, Oklahoma State now has a chance at defeating a second-straight top 10 team in No. 8 Baylor in the Big 12 championship game.
That's why Cincinnati should be concerned -- the Cowboys can end the season with back-to-back wins against CFP top 10 opponents (depending on how far OU falls on Tuesday), while Cincinnati faces No. 24 Houston in the AAC championship game. If there are still two SEC teams and a one-loss Big Ten champion in the top four on Selection Day, the committee will likely debate whether Cincinnati's wins against Notre Dame and Houston are better than Oklahoma State's two wins against Baylor and the win against OU.
If Oklahoma State can finish as a one-loss Big 12 champion, though, and Georgia can eliminate Alabama, or Iowa wins the Big Ten, the Cowboys would probably finish in the top four with Cincinnati.
With the win over the No. 10 Sooners, it's possible Oklahoma State can jump Notre Dame on Tuesday because the Cowboys would have earned a CFP top-10 win while the Irish were hammering a 3-9 Stanford team.
That doesn't mean the Irish would be out of it quite yet ...
One-loss Notre Dame now sits and waits for more chaos.
The lack of a conference championship game could help or hurt the Irish in any given year as long as the CFP remains a four-team field, and this year it could still go either direction. While other teams like Michigan and Cincinnati could see their playoff hopes disappear with a loss in their respective conference title games, Notre Dame doesn't have to worry about a second loss.
It does, however, have to hope other contenders finish that way.
Notre Dame is one of the most improved teams in the country, but ending the season with wins against Georgia Tech and Stanford -- teams that are now a combined 6-18 -- won't impress the committee more than a win against a top-25 opponent in a conference championship game. Cincinnati, Oklahoma State and Michigan each have a chance to punctuate their résumés with wins that can either change their playoff positions or help solidify them.
There are multiple ways for Notre Dame to garner serious consideration. One would be an Iowa win in the Big Ten championship game and a Cincinnati loss. The Irish are still hurt by the Bearcats' win in South Bend, and the head-to-head result is one of the tiebreakers the selection committee uses to help evaluate comparable teams -- along with a conference championship. That would be two strikes against the Irish, unless Cincinnati loses to Houston.
It's also possible, though, that Notre Dame can get in with undefeated Cincinnati. If Georgia can eliminate Alabama, and two-loss Baylor wins the Big 12, the top four could be Georgia, Michigan, Cincinnati and Notre Dame.