March Madness came early in 2024.
First Dayton lost to Duquesne in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals on Thursday night. At the time, that result stood out as a big deal in and of itself.
Then came Champ Week Saturday, truly one of the wildest days in recent memory for the bubble.
On Saturday, in order:
Florida Atlantic lost to Temple in the American semifinals.
North Carolina fell to NC State in the ACC title game.
Colorado lost to Oregon in the last Pac-12 championship game under the league's current organization.
At Bubble Watch, we never expected to trot out the definition of a bid thief so frequently. But let's look one more time at what we mean by a certain very important term this Selection Sunday.
A bid thief is a team that: (1) wins its conference tournament; (2) would not have received an NCAA bid otherwise; and (3) plays in a league with at least one NCAA at-large bid recipient.
We have four bid thieves in 2024. As a result, four at-large hopefuls that otherwise would have made the tournament will be left out.
If there were zero bid thieves (like last year), we might be looking at "last four in" teams such as Indiana State, Seton Hall, Virginia or Pittsburgh. To be sure, any of those teams could still hear its name called on the selection show. But all are even more apprehensive than they were Saturday morning.
With the new bubble created by four bid thieves, we may now be looking at "last four in" teams such as TCU, Colorado, Michigan State and Oklahoma. Nor is Florida Atlantic feeling entirely secure.
Each of these new bubble teams arrived at this surprising status in their own fashion. TCU beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 tournament. Was that contest really an elimination game and we just didn't know it? Are the Horned Frogs safe?
Colorado surged late in the season with eight straight wins before losing to Oregon by seven in the Pac-12 title game. Have the Buffaloes reached safe ground with that win streak, or did they need the automatic bid?
Michigan State gave Big Ten No. 1 seed Purdue a stiff challenge before losing by five in the conference quarterfinals. But, at 19-14, did the Spartans need to build a stronger profile during the regular season?
Will Florida Atlantic have the opportunity to follow up on its 2023 Final Four run?
In the past 15 years, there's been just one Selection Sunday that came close to this level of uncertainty. Five years ago, in 2019, there were also four bid thieves.
Just like this year, Oregon won the 2019 Pac-12 tournament and took a bid off the board. The Ducks were joined by Saint Mary's, Saint Louis and Murray State as bid thieves.
The last at-large team in this 2024 field would have been a "last four byes" member one year ago. The presence of four bid thieves has transformed an already suspenseful section of the bracket.
Bubble teams, beware. No one is safe in 2024. If we could measure the total amount of nervousness felt by all teams watching the selection show, this year would set the record.
Here is our current projection of the bubble:
Teams from traditional one-bid conferences: 21
Bid thieves: 4 teams (American, NC State, Oregon, Duquesne)
Locks: 37 teams
The bubble: 16 teams for 6 available spots
Should be in: 2 teams
Work to do: 14 teams
ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC |
American | Mountain West | Others
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Kansas State Wildcats: Game Highlights
ACC
Locks
North Carolina Tar Heels, Duke Blue Devils, Clemson Tigers
Work to do
Virginia Cavaliers
As a reminder of how small the margins between "bid" and "no bid" can be in the postseason, consider a "last four in" team such as Virginia. The Cavaliers were taken to overtime by Boston College in the ACC quarterfinals. Tony Bennett's team nevertheless managed to advance to the semifinals, where NC State's Michael O'Connell banked in an incredible game-tying 3 at the buzzer to send the game to OT. The Hoos lost 73-65. Over the course of 90 minutes of ACC tournament basketball, UVA shot 14-for-29 at the line. In return, Virginia has received an anxious wait until the selection show. (updated March 16)
Pittsburgh Panthers
The committee will decide what to do with a 22-11 team that reached the ACC semifinals and lost to North Carolina by seven. Doubtless, it will be a close decision. Pitt was done no favors when, on this same Champ Week Friday, the Panthers' bubble rival Texas A&M made short work of Kentucky. Both Jeff Capel's team and the Aggies played knowing there will be one fewer at-large bid on the board because of Dayton's loss in the A-10 quarterfinals the previous evening. It will be a tight decision with a Pitt team whose record and metrics both give the feel of a profile near the cut line. (updated March 15)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Losing in your conference tournament while you're still wearing the "first four out" label in mock brackets is always hazardous. If Wake Forest does miss the tournament, the Demon Deacons will look back on the three losses they suffered between home wins over Duke and Clemson. Dropping games on the road at Notre Dame and Virginia Tech -- and especially one at home to Georgia Tech -- put this team in a hole. Then a Pitt offense at the top of its game. The committee will decide, but the fact that good news for Wake would be widely regarded as a surprise suggests the Deacons are likely headed for the NIT. (updated March 14)
Braden Smith hits a dagger 3-pointer for Purdue and gives the "night-night" celebration running back on defense.
BIG 12
Locks
Houston Cougars, Kansas Jayhawks, Iowa State Cyclones, Baylor Bears, BYU Cougars, Texas Tech Red Raiders, TCU Horned Frogs, Texas Longhorns
Work to do
Oklahoma Sooners
Very few bubble teams have had the experience Oklahoma has lived heading into Selection Sunday. The Sooners had good reason to think they were safe, with wins over Iowa State and BYU and a 20-12 record coming out of the Big 12. Then the projected cut line started moving closer to OU. That line usually doesn't move all that much, but in 2024 it has marched right up to where the Sooners are watching and waiting. Now, a team that capped off its profile with a 5-9 finish has every reason to worry. It's going to be close. (updated March 17)
Kansas State Wildcats
The Wildcats are done playing, for now, after falling short by 19 against Iowa State in the Big 12 quarterfinals. Ordinarily when this occurs with a "next four out" member, the team in question is escorted courteously but unmistakably out the door here at Bubble Watch. In this case, however, we'll keep Kansas State with us for the time being. Jerome Tang's team had managed to make a few "first four out" lists. Additionally, it's possible a committee member or two could be swayed by K-State's quality wins in a league brimming with opportunities for such victories. We'll park the Wildcats here for now. (updated March 15)
Cincinnati Bearcats
Wes Miller's team scored just 56 points and went 5-of-22 beyond the arc in falling to Baylor by 12 in the Big 12 quarterfinals. With a win over shorthanded Kansas in the previous round, Cincinnati had pulled itself up to "next four out" status. Playing in a conference bracket promising no shortage of quality wins offered a viable ladder to the field of 68. Now that climb is stopped, and the Bearcats are 20-14 and awaiting their fate. (updated March 15)
Oregon survives at home with win over Utah
BIG EAST
Locks
UConn Huskies, Marquette Golden Eagles, Creighton Bluejays
Work to do
St. John's Red Storm
It was all going so well for St. John's. Rick Pitino gave voice to his tirade about his team in late February. The Red Storm reeled off six straight wins and reached the Big East tournament semifinals. There's your at-large bid, right? In any other year, yes. In 2024, maybe. With four bid thieves in the bracket, St. John's at 20-13 finds itself right on the new and very elevated cut line in mock brackets. While the metrics for St. John's net out as fine on average, they're also uneven. In such situations in the past, the committee has devoted special attention to the team in question. It's possible it is doing so with St. John's. (updated March 17)
Seton Hall Pirates
As often happens late in Champ Week, inactive teams are seeing their positions change in mock brackets significantly. This shift has been worrisome for Seton Hall. The Pirates were in the "last four byes" category prior to their Big East quarterfinal loss by 19 to St. John's. That seems like a very long time ago. Four bid thieves appeared, and now Shaheen Holloway's group is at risk of being left out of the field entirely. Seton Hall could of course still be fine, but the landscape of this bubble is very different from what the Pirates expected. (updated March 17)
Providence Friars
If the prevailing view is correct and Providence does not earn an at-large bid, Kim English and his team might look back once more on the ACL injury suffered by Bryce Hopkins in January. Without Hopkins, the Friars quickly fell from 2-0 in Big East play to 2-4. PC then rallied and even defeated Creighton both in Providence and at the Big East tournament. But an 11-point defeat at the hands of Marquette in the Big East semifinals appears to have stopped the 21-13 Friars just short of an at-large invite. (updated March 16)
Villanova Wildcats
Villanova bowed out rather gallantly after all, falling short in the Big East quarterfinals against Marquette in overtime. For the moment, conventional wisdom holds that it's unlikely the committee will award an at-large bid to the 18-15 Wildcats. If Kyle Neptune's team had defeated the Golden Eagles, however, things might have become interesting. When Nova needed a Justin Moore game winner just to beat 3-28 DePaul by one point, the Wildcats actually dropped in mock brackets after the win. That fell under the heading of "unusual but foreseeable." In the end, Villanova just didn't record enough wins in 2023-24, unusual or otherwise. (updated March 15)
Johnell Davis steals the rock and heaves a dime to Brandon Weatherspoon for a Florida Atlantic flush.
BIG TEN
Locks
Purdue Boilermakers, Wisconsin Badgers, Illinois Fighting Illini, Nebraska Cornhuskers
Should be in
Northwestern Wildcats
The profile is now complete for Northwestern at 21-11. Even though the Wildcats lost in their first Big Ten tournament outing to Wisconsin, the double-bye to Friday and the No. 4 seed in that bracket speak in and of themselves to a successful season. On the subject of success, mock brackets are forecasting a spot as high in the field of 68 as the No. 8 line for NU. If there is some slippage in that number between now and the selection show, it may be due to Northwestern's bottom-line metrics. The committee will, for example, see a 50-something NET ranking for the Wildcats at decision time. (updated March 15)
Work to do
Michigan State Spartans
By the rules of this game as it's usually played, Michigan State was in a good spot. The Spartans were a No. 8 seed in a power conference that will send a flock of teams into the bracket. MSU won a game by 10 against Minnesota and then gave No. 1 seed Purdue all it could handle before losing by five. Only now the rules have changed, and as a result we're dropping Michigan State from "Should be in" to "Work to do." The bracket became four teams smaller due to bid thieves. The Spartans are still likely to hear their name called, but their margin of comfort has vanished. (updated March 17)
Darius Brown II connects on a huge 3-pointer in the final seconds to lead No. 22 Utah State past New Mexico.
PAC-12
Locks
Arizona Wildcats, Washington State Cougars
Work to do
Colorado Buffaloes
In the very act of losing the Pac-12 title game to a bid thief, Colorado imperiled what at the beginning of the day was thought to be its own relatively safe bid. Over the course of a wild Saturday, Florida Atlantic was eliminated from the American tournament, NC State upset North Carolina to win the ACC's automatic bid and Oregon defeated CU. The Buffs could very well still be fine. Their metrics are in fact outstanding. But this is a more uncertain picture for Tad Boyle's team than it was in the aftermath of a semifinal win over Washington State. (updated March 16)
Tucker DeVries scores 27 points as Drake beats Indiana State 84-80 to win the Missouri Valley Conference title.
SEC
Locks
Tennessee Volunteers, Alabama Crimson Tide, Auburn Tigers, South Carolina Gamecocks, Kentucky Wildcats, Florida Gators
Should be in
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Congratulations to the Bulldogs. Rating out as "last four byes" this year is like being a No. 9 seed in any previous bracket. Defeating Tennessee by 17 and reaching the SEC semifinals will do that for a profile. Note that Mississippi State fans will continue to like what they see from Josh Hubbard. Despite going 7-of-26 on his 3s in three SEC tournament outings, the first-year standout put up 62 points. Not to saddle Hubbard with patently unfair and overly illustrious comparisons, but production irrespective of accuracy beyond the arc does call to mind Trae Young at Oklahoma. (updated March 17)
Work to do
Texas A&M Aggies
These amazing March charges that Texas A&M makes annually are a real challenge for the mock bracket industry. It is difficult keeping up with the Aggies, but it would appear this group is in line for something in the neighborhood of a No. 10 seed. While a 20-14 record looks straightforward enough, A&M arrived there by losing five straight then winning five in a row before bowing out of the SEC bracket against Florida. In major-conference play, no offense recorded a higher shot volume this season than that of the Aggies. (updated March 16)
AMERICAN
Locks
With four bid thieves moving the at-large boundary up an entire seed line in the 2024 bracket, Bubble Watch is issuing its very first lock advisory.
Florida Atlantic is easily the least safe Bubble Watch lock since the current staff arrived. Two things occurred after the Owls earned their lock status. FAU went out and lost in the American semifinals to a Temple team that ranked No. 198 in the NET at tipoff. That would pose no problem by itself, and indeed Bubble Watch builds such potential catastrophes into its deliberations on locks. Then, however, the cut line moved toward Florida Atlantic with remarkable speed as four bid thieves made their presence felt. The Owls now look like a "last four in" team. Proceed with extreme caution here.
MOUNTAIN WEST
Locks
San Diego State Aztecs, Utah State Aggies, Nevada Wolf Pack, Boise State Broncos, Colorado State Rams, New Mexico Lobos
OTHERS
Locks
Dayton Flyers, Saint Mary's Gaels, Gonzaga Bulldogs, Drake Bulldogs
Work to do
Indiana State Sycamores
Who's afraid of bid thieves? Even with the new and much smaller bracket fashioned by said thieves, Indiana State would still make the field with ease if the question were being decided by team sheet metrics. The Sycamores have arrived at Selection Sunday as a top-30 team in the NET rankings, and their résumé ratings net out right at 40. In any normal case, a team with such numbers cruises into the field with little notice and zero comment. This case is not normal, however. ISU arrived at these numbers without defeating a major conference opponent. Also, the committee has had to adapt on the run as bid thieves wreaked havoc. This is uncharted selection territory in more ways than one. (updated March 17)