After the Pirates' 2012 collapse, GM Neal Huntington and manager Clint Hurdle knew they needed to come up with a new plan if they wanted to end the city's misery and, more importantly, keep their jobs. So they met at Hurdle's suburban Pittsburgh home and, out of desperation, decided to go all-in on a plan Hurdle called the most aggressive program he'd ever been around. Three years later that blueprint not only has ended the franchise's record streak of 20 consecutive losing seasons and been a job saver but also has provided the organization with a model for continued future success.
Pittsburgh peaked at 62-46 in the 2012 campaign before finishing with just 79 wins. So Hurdle and Huntington, who was working with a very limited free-agent budget, decided to adopt a pitching and defensive philosophy that had started showing positive results in the minor leagues. Pittsburgh changed its approach on attacking hitters and fully vested itself in using defensive metrics in regard to defensive positioning and pitch framing. The results couldn't have been better. The Pirates have won 243 games since the beginning of the 2013 campaign -- third most in MLB -- and have posted the second-best ERA (3.31) and allowed the fewest home runs (303) over that period. Since May 9 of this season, Pittsburgh has the best record in baseball (48-27) by 3 1/2 games, boosted by a team ERA of 3.19.
The plan
1. Pitching low and inside
When pitching coach Ray Searage came on board in 2011, the philosophy began shifting from pitching outside to pitching inside and from four-seam fastballs to two-seam sinkers.
Since 2013, the Pirates have thrown inside on 34.7 percent of their pitches -- more than any other team in the major leagues -- and up 5 percent over their three previous seasons. In an attempt to own the inside part of the plate, Pittsburgh hurlers have hit 213 batters since 2013 -- 38 more than any other team. Pittsburgh also went to the two-seamer in that same time period, throwing sinkers on a major-league-high 11.2 percent of its pitches, three times more than the average team and almost double its rate from 2010 to 2012.
Results: Over the past three seasons, Pittsburgh has posted a ground ball percentage of 52.4, easily the highest in MLB. Even more astounding is that the three individual seasons marked the three highest percentages since the stat began tracking in 1990.
Reclamation projects Francisco Liriano, Jeff Locke and Charlie Morton, among others, have turned their careers around since committing to the sinker (see chart below); each has knocked off a run or more from his ERA since adopting the sinker. A.J. Burnett, currently on the DL with an elbow injury, has knocked off more than 70 points from his ERA. In fact, all five Pittsburgh starters this season rank among the top 15 in the National League in ground ball percentage.
And why is keeping the ball down so important? First, ground balls lead to double-play opportunities, and Pittsburgh is making the most of the opportunity this season, turning 14.2 percent of its opportunities into twin killings -- the fourth-highest rate in MLB since the stat started tracking in 1980 (the Cardinals' 16.2 in 2005 is tops). Second and more importantly, the eight teams since 2000 with the highest ground ball percentages have all made the postseason. Even Gerrit Cole, with the 96 mph heater and the only starter who doesn't feature the sinker over the four-seamer, has had to adjust his arsenal somewhat. He is using it more often than in previous seasons, which is helping him turn into the staff ace Huntington sought when he focused the 2009-11 drafts on power arms.
Cole needs one win to become the Bucs' first 15-game winner since 1999, which would end the longest drought in the major leagues, and his 35 wins through his first 62 career games is the most in franchise history and tied with Roger Clemens for second most since 1950 behind only Doc Gooden (37).
The Pirates' bullpen has been just as effective. Led by closer Mark Melancon (1.55 ERA since '13), setup man Tony Watson (2.15) and a myriad of hard throwers, the pen is first in the NL in ERA (2.98), OPS (.653) and winning percentage (.577) since 2013. The group has stranded nearly 90 percent of all baserunners this season, which is easily the best mark in the majors and is on pace for the best since the stat began tracking in 1970.
2. Shifting on defense
Huntington started an analytics department upon his arrival in '08. After the 2012 meeting between Huntington and Hurdle, Pittsburgh began to implement a shifting strategy that had started showing results at the minor league level in previous seasons.
Results: The major league club ranked among the bottom four in Baseball Information Solutions' defensive runs saved from 2010 to 2012. After costing the team 42 more runs than average in 2012, Pittsburgh shifted almost five times more the next season and the defense saved 74 more runs than average, bolting to second in the majors. The Pirates rank fifth in defensive runs saved (23) in the National League this season, and the shift has saved the club 14 runs, best in the NL.
3. Pitch framing
After suffering through the Ryan Doumit era upon his arrival, Huntington and his analytics staff focused on a seldom-mentioned statistic in bringing in his past three catchers.
Results: After Doumit and Rod Barajas ranked among the worst 10 pitch framers (an advanced metric that estimates how many runs a catcher saved or cost his team by pitch framing over the course of a season) from 2010 to 2012, Russell Martin, who received tons of credit for handling the staff in 2013-14, continued his run as a top-10 framer in his two seasons with Pittsburgh (see chart below). Francisco Cervelli, another former Yankee, has made Pittsburgh's transition from Martin seamless at a fraction of the cost, and Chris Stewart ranked fifth (21.0) in the majors in 2013 when he played regularly with the Yankees before being traded to Pittsburgh.
Pirates pitchers ranked 27th in MLB in SO/BB ratio (2.08) in 2010-12 but improved to 18th over the past three years (2.55) and rank 10th so far this season (2.88) -- more evidence of how pitch framing has helped the club.