Now that we're just a few days away from the start of the 2023 MLB playoffs, it's time for a postseason update to my in-season ace rankings.
This edition is a projection of who I'd want most for this year's playoffs, with career postseason performances as a tiebreaker (here's last year's list). Only healthy starters from teams projected to make the playoffs -- sorry, Cubs and Mariners -- qualify for this list.
That means that pitchers who just miss due to these two conditions include (deep breath) Justin Steele, Max Fried, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Shane McClanahan, Jacob deGrom, Walker Buehler, Eury Perez, Sandy Alcantara, Max Scherzer and Dustin May. All of those players would fit on this list if healthy and/or in the playoffs.
After removing starting pitchers for teams that aren't in the playoff race, only three of the 10 preseason aces are alive for this exercise, beginning with the two top pitchers from the same division.
Tier 1
1. Spencer Strider, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Strider finished second to teammate Michael Harris II in Rookie of the Year voting last year. In his second full season, he's second in baseball in pitcher WAR with the best strikeout rate in the majors and should have a top-five NL Cy Young finish even if his 3.81 ERA is almost a run higher than his peripherals suggest. I paused about putting him at the top spot since he's only thrown 2⅓ playoff innings, but the potential for postseason dominance is too much to ignore.
2. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Philly's ace has only appeared in one postseason, but he threw 35⅔ innings with a 2.78 ERA over six starts. He was dominant for most of last October and still had solid peripherals in a rough 2022 World Series appearance. Wheeler has stayed healthy and posted every year since 2017. The first two names on this list are close to a tossup, but Strider's top-tier fastball is the separator.
3. Kevin Gausman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
While a number of ace types are injured or on non-playoff teams, the top three pitchers in FanGraphs WAR are on this list and Gausman is third on both lists. Like Wheeler, Gausman has been durable for years but Gausman took a big step forward to ace level in 2020 and has a 3.15 ERA over the past four seasons. He has the least velocity and worst breaking ball of this top tier, but his splitter and feel on the mound are standouts.
Tier 2
4. Framber Valdez, LHP, Houston Astros
Valdez gets the nod in this group due to his 68⅔ postseason innings with numbers even a bit better than his strong career regular-season stats. His velo has spiked 1.7 mph this year and he has used his fastball a bit differently, with his ground ball rate dropping from an otherworldly 67% to a merely top five amongst all starting pitchers to 54%.
5. Pablo Lopez, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Lopez was the primary return for Minnesota in an offseason trade that sent Luis Arraez to Miami. Both players had career years in 2023. Lopez's velo jumped 1.4 mph, his strikeout rate has risen to a career high 10.9 K/9 and he has pitched a career high at 194 innings while everything else that made him a solid mid-rotation starter stayed the same.
6. Zac Gallen, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Another former Marlins pitcher is excelling elsewhere (don't forget Luis Castillo, too!) after a challenge trade: Gallen was dealt for Jazz Chisholm Jr. in 2019. Gallen was consistently underrated as a prospect but blossomed in the big leagues. He has plus command of above-average stuff and this year he passed the 200-inning mark for the first time.
7. Zach Eflin, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Eflin was a late first-round pick out of a high school near Orlando, Florida, in 2012, but low strikeouts held him back in the minors. Upon arriving in Philadelphia, his K/9 rate eventually jumped from 4.9 in 2017 to 8.7 in 2018. The late bloomer was great as a starter for the Phillies before being signed by the Rays to the biggest free agent deal in club history last offseason. He has rewarded Tampa Bay by also posting a career year this season, pitching a career-high 177⅔ innings with a 9.4 K/9.
Tier 3
8. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
9. Corbin Burnes, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
10. Bobby Miller, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
11. Aaron Nola, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
12. Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
13. Sonny Gray, RHP, Minnesota Twins
14. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
15. Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Miami Marlins
This tier contains every type of starting pitcher and is such an unpredictable group that any of the players could be pulled in the second inning of a key playoff start if things don't go well -- or be a star in October. Glasnow, Miller and Luzardo have electric stuff but need command to be able to turn over a lineup. Nola, Gray and Kershaw are crafty vets with average fastball velocity in the low-90s, but each has a deep arsenal, feel, solid pitch shapes and experience to take advantage of a situation. Then there's the fastball-heavy Brewers starters (even if Burnes' is technically a cutter) who both fit somewhere between those two extremes.
Ten others In the conversation
Freddy Peralta, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Justin Verlander, RHP, Houston Astros
Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Texas Rangers
Kyle Bradish, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Braxton Garrett, LHP, Miami Marlins
Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Jordan Montgomery, LHP, Texas Rangers
Merrill Kelly, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Aaron Civale, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Joe Ryan, RHP, Minnesota Twins