In case anyone has managed to miss it over the past two postseasons, Bryce Harper delivered the message with a two-homer game and a double stare-down of Orlando Arcia: Playoff Bryce is a different beast from regular-season Bryce. No moment seems too big for the Phillies' slugger and, Game 2 baserunning gaffe and all, he continues to further his growing reputation as this generation's Mr. October.
Reggie Jackson, the original, hit 18 home runs in 77 career postseason games. Harper, with three so far in 2023, has 14 in 42 postseason games. Indeed, out of 192 players with at least 150 career postseason plate appearances, Harper ranks fifth in OPS at 1.017, putting him near the top of a leaderboard featuring names like Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, George Brett and Carlos Beltran.
"When the lights are the brightest, he shows up," Phillies manager Rob Thomson said after Harper and the Phillies knocked around the Braves in Game 3 before eliminating Atlanta the next night. "He's a big-game player. He really is."
Across the postseason bracket, big-game players have stepped up. Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez put up American League Division Series numbers that matched Harper's onslaught, going 7-for-16 with four home runs in four games against the Twins. His early production and imposing size have had fans wondering one thing every time the 6-foot-5, 225-pound slugger steps to the plate: Why would anyone choose to pitch to this guy?
When Alvarez steps to the plate, "It's all eyes on him," teammate Chas McCormick said before Game 4. "You can tell everybody is kind of at the top of the dugout. He's one of the best hitters on the planet. It's pretty incredible to watch him hit, especially right now. I've seen him do it before." Like last October, when Alvarez hit two huge home runs during the Astros' title run.
Harper's heroics propelled the Phillies past the Braves for the second straight postseason, and Alvarez's helped Houston avoid being another upset victim in a postseason that has seen the 101-win Orioles, 100-win Dodgers and the 99-win Rays all get swept, with the 104-win Braves also eliminated in the National League Division Series. Harper and Alvarez headline the first lesson we've learned so far: Your stars better show up.
Let's look at that and a few other trends that have rocked this postseason so far -- and what they could mean for the next two rounds.
1. Your stars have to perform
Harper and Alvarez aren't the only stars shining bright as their teams advance deeper into October.
A locked-in Corey Seager was key to the Rangers sweeping the Rays and Orioles for their 5-0 start to the postseason. Seager had a monster season for the Rangers, ranking second to Shohei Ohtani in the majors in OPS, and he's hitting .429/.680/.857 with four extra-base hits in October. Yes, that is a .680 on-base percentage; he has drawn 11 walks in five games, including the first five-walk game in postseason history.
Rangers teammate Mitch Garver went one better than McCormick's praise of Alvarez, calling Seager "the best hitter on the planet."
This is a player who carried the Dodgers through the 2020 playoffs, winning MVP honors in both the National League Championship Series and World Series, so we know Seager can keep this kind of production going for multiple series at a time. And do you remember where every one of those NLCS and World Series games was played during that pandemic-impacted postseason? That's right, Globe Life Field -- where Seager now plays his home games.
For the Diamondbacks, rookie Corbin Carroll is their best player, and as they swept the Brewers and Dodgers in five games, he has hit .412/.565/.824 with two home runs, six walks and seven runs scored. As for some of the teams that didn't advance, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman went a combined 1-for-21, with the one hit Freeman's infield single when the pitcher was late covering first base. Adley Rutschman went 1-for-12 for the Orioles. AL batting champ Yandy Diaz went 1-for-8 for the Rays.
Is there something to this theory? Certainly, a star can't do it all by himself. You need others to step up -- Seager, for example, has a whole lineup around him suddenly on a hot streak. But it certainly helps everyone else to relax a bit if your star hitter is getting on base and producing. Postseason history is littered with unsung heroes, like the 2021 playoffs when Eddie Rosario was the NLCS MVP and Jorge Soler was the World Series MVP for the Braves. But you know who else had a great postseason that year? Freeman, who hit .304/.420/.625 with five home runs. As Reggie himself might say, the stars still need to be the straw that stirs the drink.
2. Score early -- and hold the lead
If it feels like a lot of runs are being scored early in games, that's because they are. In the regular season, 34% of all runs were scored in the first three innings. Heading into Thursday's Braves-Phillies game, 43.5% of all runs in the postseason had been scored in the first three innings. Or to put it another way:
Starters' ERA: 4.52
Relievers' ERA: 2.86
The side effect of this -- besides all the yearning for a style of game that no longer exists -- is that we've also had few lead changes. In those first 21 games, we've seen just six lead changes and no more than one per game. Only two have come after the fourth inning: The Diamondbacks took the lead in the sixth inning of Game 2 of the wild-card series against the Brewers, and the Braves had Austin Riley's dramatic go-ahead home run in the eighth inning of Game 2 against the Phillies.
It's perhaps not a surprise we've seen this happen. It wasn't a banner year in the first place for starting pitchers -- only five qualified starters finished with an ERA under 3.00 -- and a whole bunch of good starters on playoff teams were unavailable coming into the postseason: Max Scherzer, Charlie Morton, Brandon Woodruff, Shane McClanahan, Jon Gray, Sandy Alcantara. Max Fried was dealing with a blister issue and Clayton Kershaw with diminished velocity. Rookies Grayson Rodriguez of the Orioles and Bobby Miller of the Dodgers projected as two of the better starters for the postseason based on their second-half performances, but both got knocked out in the second inning.
And remember, we haven't even seen (or never did see) most teams' fourth starters. That's not to diminish the good performances we've seen so far -- Nathan Eovaldi and Zack Wheeler both have two quality starts and Pablo Lopez was outstanding for the Twins -- but managers are clearly happy to turn games over to the bullpens.
Which leads to our next item ...
3. Two good starting pitchers might be enough
The Rangers have Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery. The Diamondbacks have Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. The Phillies have Wheeler and Aaron Nola. See the trend here? Only the Astros with Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy have more than two starters who can take the mound without the manager looking to make a move at the first sign of danger.
The key in the next round might be what happens beyond those top two pitchers -- and how quickly the manager takes those starters out, or how long he leaves them in. Of course, either way, there will be second-guessing. When it works, the manager looks smart. Take Rangers skipper Bruce Bochy in Game 1 against the Orioles. He had a clear plan to use Andrew Heaney through facing Gunnar Henderson a second time; that came in the bottom of the fourth and Dane Dunning replaced Heaney. The bullpen held on for a 3-2 victory. Arizona manager Torey Lovullo removed Brandon Pfaadt in the fifth inning of Game 3 against the Dodgers even though Pfaadt had a shutout going and had thrown only 42 pitches; Lovullo wasn't about to let Pfaadt give up a quick three runs and allow the Dodgers back into the game.
When a quick hook doesn't work, a manager looks ... well, like the aftermath of Blue Jays skipper John Schneider removing Jose Berrios in the bottom of the fourth after just 47 pitches. Blue Jays players questioned the decision, and general manager Ross Atkins said in his year-end news conference, "I was surprised by the move."
But it remains a fine line between trusting the players who got you here and not trusting them to get another few outs. Wheeler was cruising in Game 2 against the Braves with just one hit allowed through six innings, although his velocity was starting to drop. Thomson brought him out for the seventh even though the bullpen was rested following an off-day. Matt Olson singled and Travis d'Arnaud homered, quickly turning a 4-1 Phillies lead into a 4-3 edge and setting the stage for Riley's home run in the eighth.
You could certainly criticize Brian Snitker for leaving in Bryce Elder to face Harper in the bottom of the third of Game 3 with runners at first and third and two outs -- or at least for not pitching around Harper to face Alec Bohm. Harper launched one into the second deck for a 4-1 lead.
These decisions become a little more difficult in the league championship series. With the potential of playing seven games in nine days it's not quite as easy to burn through your bullpen -- especially knowing a fourth starter will be needed in the middle of the series. In general, however, the trend will continue: quick hooks and lots of relievers.
4. The new rules are still working
How much of a difference is the pitch clock making this October? Take a look at this:
2021 postseason average game: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2022 postseason average time of game: 3 hours, 32 minutes
2023 postseason average time of game: 3 hours
Man, that 2021 postseason was an absolute slog; it was a major storyline that October and no doubt the final impetus to institute the pitch clock. The 32-minute drop so far in 2023 is even bigger than the 20-minute improvement in the regular season (although we've had no extra-inning games so far). Still, the games are speeding along much as they did in the regular season (with longer commercial breaks accounting for most of the 20-minute increase over the regular season).
And that's not the only rule change making an impact on how postseason baseball looks. In the first year with pickoff attempt limits, no shift and bigger bases, stolen bases are trending up, well, kind of.
2021 postseason stolen bases per game: 0.55
2022 postseason stolen bases per game: 0.43
2023 postseason stolen bases per game: 0.57
Stolen bases have gone up a bit from the 2022 postseason -- but they are also notably down from the regular season, when teams averaged 0.72 steals per game. It's not due to fewer baserunners: The regular-season OBP was .320 compared to .316 so far in the playoffs. Managers are probably a little more cautious. We've had a fair number of blowouts, which discourages stealing. Only two of the top six base-stealing teams made the playoffs, and one of them (the Rays) went out in two games. The Phillies and Diamondbacks have combined for 16 of the 24 stolen bases this postseason,
Of course, this is also the second postseason with the 12-team playoff format -- and there has been a lot of discussion about that. The top five teams in terms of regular-season record have gone 1-13. The whole "rust or rest" debate ramped up after the imposing Braves lineup got shut out in its first playoff game and certainly won't go away now that Atlanta is out of the postseason. For the most part, this is mostly just playoff baseball -- stuff happens that is unpredictable. The fact that the Astros had the same long rest last year and won their first seven postseason games is not mentioned nearly as often as the teams that have struggled out of the bye. Bottom line: The more teams you introduce to the playoffs, the more likely it becomes that you're going to get lesser teams from the regular season moving on.
That said, there are two clear flaws in the current setup:
1. Teams should be reseeded after the wild-card round. This year, that would have had the No. 1-seeded Braves playing the No. 6 Diamondbacks with the No. 2 Dodgers playing the No. 4 Phillies.
2. MLB needs to cut down the number of off-days in the division series -- and make it a best-of-seven. The National League had three off-days to play five games. That's silly and allows teams to use fewer starters and use relievers much easier. Even if the rust issue is real -- and there's no evidence to say it is -- a best-of-seven series at least doesn't put a team in such a big hole if it loses the first game.
Commissioner Rob Manfred addressed the ongoing conversation about the new format in a pre-Game 4 media session Thursday night in Philadelphia.
"It's only Year 2 [of the new format]. I'm sort of the view you need to give something a chance to work out. I know some of the seeded teams, higher-seeded teams didn't win," Manfred said. "I think if you think about where some of those teams were, there are other explanations than a five-day layoff. But I think we'll reevaluate in the offseason like we always do and think about if we have the format right."
5. Home runs are still king
This has been the story of recent postseasons: Home runs win games. That doesn't mean the little stuff doesn't matter; yes, two-out base hits and moving runners up and putting the ball in play with two strikes are all important and can lead to scoring runs. But keep in mind stringing together extended rallies in the postseason is extremely difficult (and especially against the bullpens). Last year, the collective postseason batting average was .211. In 2021, it was .244. In 2020, it was .234. So, it's mostly about hitting more home runs than your opponent.
Through the first 21 postseason games, the team that has outhomered its opponent is 13-1 (with seven games in which both teams hit the same number of home runs). The only game a team lost despite hitting more runs was Game 2 of the Rangers-Orioles series, when the Orioles hit two home runs to the Rangers' one yet lost 11-8.
The key is that hitting home runs in the regular season isn't necessarily predictive to hitting home runs in October. Take the Diamondbacks. Among the 12 playoff teams, only the Brewers hit fewer home runs. Arizona hit 166 home runs in the regular season, tied for 22nd in the majors. But the Diamondbacks outhomered the Brewers 4 to 1 in their two-game sweep and outhomered the Dodgers 9 to 1, including a record-breaking four-homer barrage in one inning off Lance Lynn in the Game 3 clincher. Everyone has chipped in: They've had eight different players hit home runs, including three from catcher Gabriel Moreno, who had just seven in the regular season.
Can they keep it going? Moreno left Game 3 after getting hit in the hand with a foul tip, so keep an eye on him. Alek Thomas has two after hitting nine in the regular season. Carroll has two after hitting just four the final two months. No doubt the Diamondbacks will have to keep slugging: In the NLCS they'll play the Phillies, who led the majors in home runs over the final months.
6. Bruce Bochy still has his magic postseason touch
The Rangers' skipper has certainly had one of the more fascinating managerial careers in MLB history. He's actually under .500 in his 26 seasons, but his three World Series titles with the Giants in 2010, 2012 and 2014 mean he'll end up in Cooperstown one day. Bochy last managed the Giants in 2019, but one thing hasn't changed: He wins in October.
The Rangers blew the AL West title in the final series by losing three of four in Seattle (including two shutouts), had to fly to Tampa and promptly went 5-0, outscoring the Rays and Orioles 32 to 12. The offense has been on fire, hitting .282/.373/.492. This makes Bochy a ridiculous 41-17 in the postseason since 2010 and 8-1 in playoff series (plus two one-game wild-card wins on the back of Madison Bumgarner) -- the only loss coming to the Cubs in the 2016 NLDS.
With the Giants, Bochy's success in large part came from excellent bullpen decisions and results. In their three championship seasons, the Giants' relievers had a 2.42 ERA. The Rangers' obvious weakness heading into the postseason: the bullpen. Through five games, however, the pen has a 2.16 ERA, allowing four runs in 16⅔ innings -- three of those in the ninth inning of Game 2 against the Orioles when the Rangers were up 11-5.
The biggest issue for Bochy in the ALCS: What to do with Aroldis Chapman. He has been the eighth-inning setup guy to closer Jose Leclerc but has struggled with his control of late. In his final regular-season appearance against Seattle, he got pulled mid-inning. He did have a clean inning against the Rays, but against the Orioles in Game 1, he walked the first two batters he faced, only to escape with a double play. In Game 3, he walked two and gave up a hit, and Bochy had to go to Leclerc to get out of the inning. While Chapman didn't allow any runs in either game, he's walking a very dangerous tightrope right now.
Let's also see what Bochy does with rookie lefty Cody Bradford, who had a 5.30 ERA in the regular season -- although 2.82 in 22⅓ innings as a reliever. He looked good in tossing 3⅔ scoreless innings in Game 2, throwing 39 strikes out of 51 pitches. That outing could earn him a more prominent role.
Given his history, Bochy will probably make the right choices -- and maybe that makes the Rangers the new favorite to win it all.