It's not supposed to happen this quickly -- and it's certainly not supposed to happen with this kind of roster. Two years ago, the Texas Rangers lost 102 games. Now they're World Series champions, and they did it with just five homegrown players on their World Series roster -- rookies Josh Jung and Evan Carter, center fielder Leody Taveras and pitchers Jose Leclerc and Cody Bradford.
The Rangers are proof that quick turnarounds are possible with smart trades, more than a little cash, some good fortune and getting hot at the right time. How did they do it?
Let's look back at some of the key moves that got them to their first title in franchise history, from the first to the most recent, as well as lessons other clubs can learn from those moves and how a handful of specific teams can apply those lessons this offseason.
Dec. 21, 2019: Rangers acquire OF Adolis Garcia for cash considerations from St. Louis Cardinals
Lesson: Be lucky.
Garcia wasn't an unknown prospect when they got him from the Cardinals as his power, speed and arm were loud tools and he had hit 32 home runs at Triple-A Memphis. He was, however, already 26 and that power came with a poor 159-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It was understandable why the Cardinals let him go: Players with that kind of plate discipline in the minors rarely develop into big league regulars -- let alone All-Stars.
Here's where it pays to be lucky. On Feb. 10, 2021, the Rangers signed free agent pitcher Mike Foltynewicz. To clear room on the 40-man roster, they designated Garcia for assignment, just as the Cardinals had. Any team could have had him, but he went unwanted, so the Rangers sent him to Triple-A. Ten games into the season, Ronald Guzman hurt his knee and Garcia got called up, driving in 26 runs in his first 26 games. Fast forward to this year and he just had the best month of his career with a record 22 RBIs in a single postseason.
Give credit to Garcia for improving, but don't forget that in the not-too-distant past the Rangers believed Guzman was a better player. So, yes, the Rangers were smart enough to grab Garcia from the Cardinals. And lucky not to lose him. Maybe that's the ultimate lesson: There are a lot of moving parts to building a World Series roster -- and it takes the right mix of organization-wide brain power, ownership commitment, perfect timing ... and good fortune.
Dec. 10, 2020: Rangers acquire 1B Nathaniel Lowe from Tampa Bay Rays for C/OF Heriberto Hernandez and IF Osleivis Basabe
Feb. 6, 2021: Rangers acquire C Jonah Heim from Oakland Athletics for SS Elvis Andrus (and $13.5 million)
Lesson: Find players blocked in other organizations.
These two trades that came in the same offseason are good examples of how to build roster depth. Lowe had played parts of two seasons with Tampa Bay and had put up consistently high OBPs in the minors, but the Rays had a crowded infield and were willing to trade him for a couple of prospects. Lowe was a good bet to hit in the majors and has, batting .276/.359/.441 while averaging 2.7 WAR in his three seasons with Texas. He's not a headline-type star but has been a nice, above-average regular.
Heim, meanwhile, spent years in the minors before he finally put up some offensive numbers in 2019. He received a cup of coffee with the A's in 2020 but was blocked by Sean Murphy. With the A's needing a shortstop for 2021 and the Rangers looking to dump Andrus' contract, there was a match. Heim's defense and energy were his top selling points at the time, but after he hit .195 with the Rangers in 2021, the team acquired Mitch Garver from the Twins that offseason.
Garver was the starting catcher at the outset of 2022 but suffered a forearm injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. That allowed Heim another opportunity as the starter and, like Garcia, give him credit: His bat has steadily improved to where he was above average in 2023 -- he also hit .375 with runners in scoring position -- and he just added his first Gold Glove.
These are the kinds of trades front offices dream of making. The Heim trade in particular now looks like an absolute steal. There are players out there to be found or who just need an opportunity to play -- and the Rangers found two of them.
Teams to watch this offseason: Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Guardians, New York Yankees
These are three teams that could help solve some of their offensive woes with merely solid contributors. The Tigers, for example, were more than a win below average at catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, left field and DH. That's why their acquisition of Mark Canha makes a lot of sense. He's perfectly fine ... which will help. The Guardians need some power in the outfield -- and we know they won't be going the splashy free agent route, instead perhaps looking to deal from their pitching depth. The Yankees were terrible at third base, left field and center field so have some clear positions to upgrade.
Feb. 16, 2021: Rangers acquire RHP Josh Sborz from Los Angeles Dodgers for RHP Jhan Zambrano
Lesson: Hope your bullpen gets hot at the right time.
One of the most important relief outings of the entire postseason came in the first game of the Rangers-Orioles division series. Consider the state of the Texas bullpen entering the postseason: Manager Bruce Bochy had settled on Jose Leclerc as his closer and Aroldis Chapman as his shaky setup man. But Bochy had no idea about the rest of his pen, and you're not going to win a World Series with only two relievers.
Sborz came on in the seventh inning of that game to protect a 3-2 lead. He had pitched well in the first half, but he battled a couple of injuries in the second half and had a 7.98 ERA. After missing most of September, he finished the season with two good outings in the final series -- enough for Bochy to call on Sborz in a high-leverage moment.
He promptly walked Aaron Hicks on four pitches and fell behind 3-0 to Adam Frazier. I'm not saying the entire postseason rested on the next pitch, but if Sborz had walked the first two batters on eight pitches, it's quite possible he might have been buried for the rest of the postseason -- or the Baltimore Orioles might have rallied to win that game, and who knows what happens after that. Sborz threw three fastballs to Frazier, all strikes, getting him to fly out on a 3-2 pitch, and would then strike out Cedric Mullins and Ryan O'Hearn. Sborz was off and running, and after posting a 5.50 ERA in the regular season, he allowed just one run in 12 postseason innings -- including finishing off the World Series with the final seven outs, four of those on strikeouts.
Bullpens are the true wild card of October baseball. The Rangers had a shaky bullpen all season, but Sborz, Chapman and Leclerc were good enough when it mattered. The Houston Astros had a dominant bullpen in 2022 and rode it to a World Series championship. The Atlanta Braves had a mediocre one in 2021, but it got hot, with closer Will Smith tossing 11 scoreless innings with two wins and six saves en route to their title. The 2019 Washington Nationals, 2018 Boston Red Sox and 2017 Astros all ended up using starters in relief to help bolster thin and unreliable bullpens.
Kudos to Bochy for quickly realizing Sborz was throwing well early in the postseason. Sticking with him to close out the World Series rather than going to Leclerc was reminiscent of Bochy's 2014 season with the San Francisco Giants, when he kept Madison Bumgarner in to close out the World Series rather than going to closer Sergio Romo.
Teams to watch this offseason: Rangers, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres
The Phillies upgraded their bullpen from 2022, but, in the end, manager Rob Thomson stuck with unpredictable Craig Kimbrel as his closer -- and Kimbrel did not get hot at the right time, losing two games to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the National League Championship Series. The Rangers will have Sborz and Leclerc back, but after ranking 24th in the majors in bullpen ERA (lowest of any playoff team), they will no doubt seek some additional depth. It wouldn't be surprising to see the Phillies and Rangers both pursue former San Diego closer Josh Hader. As for the Padres, even with Hader, they went 2-12 in extra-inning games and 9-23 in one-run games. Robert Suarez might get the closer gig, but they'll be looking for some help.
Nov. 30, 2021: Rangers sign Corey Seager to 10-year, $325 million contract; Marcus Semien to seven-year, $175 million contract; Jon Gray to four-year, $56 million contract
Lesson: Spend the money!
As we recently outlined, following that disaster of a season in 2021, then-president Jon Daniels and general manager Chris Young established a clear objective: The Rangers were going to spend their way back to contention. It began with the megacontracts to Seager and Semien in the hours before the lockout kicked in. After Daniels was fired during the 2022 season, Young doubled down last offseason, signing starting pitchers Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney.
Two notes here: The Rangers were in position to spend big at the time, after clearing the payroll of any long-term commitments. And they had an owner in Ray Davis willing to play with the big boys. Of course, signing free agents to lavish contracts is no guarantee. The Mets, Yankees and Padres had the three highest payrolls in 2023, and all three missed the playoffs. While the Rangers have three nine-figure free agents in Seager, Semien and deGrom, the 2022 Astros, 2021 Braves and 2002 Dodgers -- the three previous World Series winners -- had none. You have to go back to the 2019 Nationals, with Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin, to find a World Series champion with a $100 million-plus free agent on its roster before the 2023 Rangers.
Seager and Semien were both outstanding this year, finishing as MVP finalists alongside Shohei Ohtani. Seager followed up a so-so first season in Texas (3.9 WAR) with a monster 6.9 WAR season in just 119 games, including a huge postseason (.318/.451/.682, six home runs). Likewise, Semien saw his OPS increase nearly 100 points from 2022 while not missing a game; his 7.4 WAR led all AL position players. He had a quiet postseason until the final two games of the World Series, when he hit two home runs and drove in seven runs.
Now compare what Seager and Semien did to Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa or Trea Turner, the three other high-priced free agent shortstops who all played below their career norms in 2023. Those long-term deals already look a little dicey after just one year. Even deGrom's injury is an example of the risk involved with any of these nine-figure contracts. Bottom line: You need stars to compete. If your farm system isn't developing them, you better hope you have an owner willing to buy a couple -- and then hope they were the right ones.
Teams to watch this offseason: Orioles, Seattle Mariners
The Orioles have a young and cheap roster -- with more prospects, like Jackson Holliday and Heston Kjerstad, on the way -- and could use help in the rotation, which just happens to be the strength of this free agent class, or a closer to replace the injured Felix Bautista. Executive of the Year Mike Elias didn't spend much last offseason and the Orioles won 101 games anyway. Let's see if that payroll gets a significant bump this winter.
The Mariners, meanwhile, ran a payroll about $74 million less than the Rangers and Astros and finished just two games behind their AL West rivals. This isn't some small market, either -- in fact, the Mariners outdrew the Rangers in home attendance in 2023. While the Mariners did sign Robbie Ray a couple of years ago coming off his Cy Young season, they've mostly been reluctant to play in the free agent game. They might have to if they want to keep up with the Rangers.
July 30, 2023: Rangers acquire Max Scherzer from New York Mets, Jordan Montgomery from Cardinals
Lesson: You can never have too much starting pitching.
Just listen to Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen: "The one thing I didn't bring back was a starter, which I wish we had done," Hazen told The Athletic during the World Series. "Having Jordan Montgomery would have helped us a ton."
A lot of front offices would echo that sentiment considering what Montgomery did in the postseason -- two scoreless starts plus a victory in Game 7 of the ALCS in relief with 2⅓ scoreless innings against the Astros.
At the end of July, the Rangers were scrambling for pitching help, with deGrom already out, Eovaldi landing on the injured list with a forearm strain and a couple of other starters scuffling. They had a great offense, but the rotation was in danger of imploding their World Series aspirations. Young's astute decision was not to stop at Scherzer but to also trade for Montgomery. How many teams trade for two starting pitchers at the deadline? That proved essential when Scherzer came down with a shoulder injury and missed the first two rounds of the postseason and Gray got injured the final week and only returned later in October as a reliever.
As the regular season increasingly becomes an attrition of arms, the old cliché is truer than ever. Consider the state of some rotations entering the postseason: The Dodgers started a diminished Clayton Kershaw and Lance Lynn, who led the majors in home runs allowed. The Braves had Max Fried pitching with a blister issue, were without Charlie Morton and used Bryce Elder, who had a 5.11 ERA in the second half, as their No. 3 starter. The Milwaukee Brewers lost Brandon Woodruff right before the playoffs started. The Rays lost ace Shane McClanahan in August. Even the Diamondbacks made the World Series without a fourth starter -- going with a disastrous bullpen game against the Rangers in a Game 4 loss.
It's interesting: Starters obviously are pitching fewer innings than ever and, even in October, we see the growing reliance on bullpens. But even then, starting pitchers remain a key component to any game. Have three good starters? Trade for a fourth. Have four good ones? Get a fifth. Think you have too many starters (like the Yankees believed, when they traded Montgomery in 2021)? You don't -- and if you do, what's wrong with using one or two in the bullpen in the postseason?
Teams to watch this offseason: Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds (and, well, pretty much every other team)
The Dodgers will be getting Walker Buehler back, but they'll be without Kershaw and Julio Urias, leaving Bobby Miller as the only proven holdover from 2023. The Diamondbacks still have Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly to build around and maybe Brandon Pfaadt's postseason performance is a sign of better things to come, but they need some depth. The Reds have a group of talented young starters, but due to injuries and poor performance, the rotation was on fumes as they fought for a wild-card spot in September. They're unlikely to spend in free agency -- it's not the Reds' way -- but could perhaps trade from their infield depth.