The working theory among some agents in December was that once Shohei Ohtani picked a team, the market for corner guys -- corner outfielders, corner infielders, designated hitter types -- would loosen, with clubs that lost out on the Ohtani bidding turning to alternatives.
That conjecture has faded over the past 50 days, with many of the same free agents still unsigned, still hoping for some thaw in what many on the player side see as a hard wall of groupthought. The offers are similar, agents say. "How many free agents have signed really good contracts?" one player representative said before answering his own question. "Josh Hader. Aaron Nola. Ohtani. [Yoshinobu] Yamamoto. [Robert] Stephenson got a good one."
What about James Paxton, the oft-injured lefty who got a one-year deal for about $11 million from the Dodgers? "It's a one-year deal!" the agent countered. "That's not a great contract!"
That remains especially true in the market for sluggers, though there is plenty of need among teams. After missing out on Ohtani, the Toronto Blue Jays went hard for Joc Pederson, who landed with the Arizona Diamondbacks for $12.5 million. The Los Angeles Angels need to cover some of the production lost with Ohtani's departure and are looking at various DH/first-base options, such as Joey Votto. The Boston Red Sox seemingly have a hole at DH, and the San Francisco Giants remain starved for offense. Agents view the Mariners, Padres and Marlins as clubs that need some thunder. The Texas Rangers have a spot to fill, now that Mitch Garver has moved on, and are talking about an intriguing veteran.
But the dollars seem uniformly tight in these last days before spring training. Staffers say the initial ask for first baseman Rhys Hoskins, before he signed a two-year, $34 million deal with the Brewers, was for four years. Cody Bellinger, looking for a significant contract, remains unsigned. So does Jorge Soler, who at 31 years old is still seemingly in the prime of his career and is coming off a season in which he clubbed 36 homers and posted an adjusted OPS+ of 128.
As this market of players slogs along, it feeds agent theories about a collective effort among the teams to wait and depress prices. One agent wonders if this is a case of supply vs. demand. "There are just a lot of options out there," he said, "and I think the teams are slow-playing this until they get the price they want."
Here are some of the unsigned veterans:
Brandon Belt (adjusted OPS+ 136, 19 homers in 339 at-bats)
Last season, only six players generated a barrel percentage of at least 15% and a chase rate below 23%: Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna Jr., Kyle Schwarber, Matt Chapman, Jack Suwinski -- and Belt, who had a nice season for the Blue Jays, with a .369 OBP and a gaudy .890 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers.
The Toronto front office, faced with the prospect (again) of a very right-handed lineup, have worked to add a left-handed hitter, chasing their dream of Ohtani before aiming for -- and missing -- Pederson, who signed with the Diamondbacks for $3 million more than Belt made for the Jays last season.
The Rangers have had internal conversations about Belt, who played for Texas manager Bruce Bochy in San Francisco. On paper, Belt would seem to be a perfect fit for Texas, in effect replacing Garver in their lineup, but the question hovering over the Rangers all winter has been how much cash general manager Chris Young has available. Young recently addressed his most glaring need by adding veteran reliever David Robertson, and rival execs have wondered if Texas will eventually be reunited with free agent starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery, who was integral to their October championship run. Whether there's any money left for a bat is to be determined.
Jorge Soler (OPS of 1.080 vs. lefties last season)
Some of the others on this list are on the downside of their careers, but Soler is in a prime production year. He is generally regarded as a DH-first candidate, but he is capable of playing the outfield; he started 32 games in right field for Miami last season.
He has reportedly generated interest from teams in both leagues, but after opting out of the remaining years of his deal with the Marlins, the perception among clubs is that Soler is looking for a multiyear deal. He'd make sense for the Blue Jays, Angels, Red Sox and others.
Justin Turner (adjusted OPS+ of 114 for Boston last season)
The positives noted by evaluators about Turner: He remains a good hitter, as he showed with the Red Sox last season, when he batted .276/.345/.455. He is widely regarded as a great clubhouse presence, someone who helps to make teammates better.
The stuff that concerns evaluators about Turner: Some believe he really needs to have the bulk of his playing time at DH, which is how the Red Sox deployed him -- he had 98 games at DH, 41 games at first base, 10 at second base and seven at third. They worry about his ability to hit the ball hard, but as MLB.com's Sarah Langs notes, this has never been a forte of Turner, even in his best years. His hard-hit rate of 38.7% last season was his lowest since 2018 -- a season in which Turner batted .312. His highest hard-hit rate was 44% in 2020, but some of his best overall years have seen him with a hard-hit rate lower than in 2023.
J.D. Martinez (33 homers, 103 RBIs and an adjusted OPS+ of 134)
He can't go back to the Dodgers, of course, with Ohtani locked in as the DH for L.A. Martinez is 36, but he demonstrated that his second-half struggles with Boston in 2022 were an outlier. He is a big problem for left-handed pitchers, in particular: He had a .925 OPS vs. lefties last season.
Joey Votto (14 homers in 208 at-bats last season)
He struggled in his first season after having surgery to repair a torn left rotator cuff and biceps, but Votto has been able to prepare this winter in a way he was not last offseason. At 40 years old, he will need to overcome questions about how effective he can be. But Votto's reputation as someone with a deep understanding of hitting and the strike zone will work for him, as well as the accountability he has demonstrated. He's a Toronto product and a left-handed hitter, and the Blue Jays desperately need lefties to balance their lineup; Votto could be a fit there, in Anaheim or maybe with the Rangers.
Tommy Pham (adjusted OPS+ of 111)
Pham stood out to evaluators in the postseason because he seemed to consistently generate hard contact playing in the biggest games of the year against good pitching staffs. He also hit both left-handers (.787 OPS) and righties (.768) last year. Whether he can parlay that into a multiyear deal or a strong one-year contract remains to be seen. Pham will turn 36 in spring training.
Others still available
There is A.J. Pollock, whose injuries limited him to 144 plate appearances last season. The right-handed hitter struggled against lefties in a small sample size in '23, but he is healthy now and working out in Phoenix. Hitting coach Craig Wallenbrock's feedback to Pollock is that his swing is on a more direct path to the ball. ... Eddie Rosario is 32 years old and coming off a year of 21 homers for the Braves; some evaluators see his best spot as a DH against righties (.762 OPS last season). ... Carlos Santana had an OPS of .773 in 52 games for the Brewers, after being traded by Pittsburgh. ... Mike Ford had 16 homers in 219 at-bats last season. ... Evan Longoria's next season would be his 17th in the big leagues. ... Gio Urshela hit .299 for the Angels last season, but he was hurt and didn't play after June 15. ... Dominic Smith batted .254 with 12 homers in 527 at-bats for the Nationals in '23. ... Eduardo Escobar has been posting workout videos regularly since October after generating a .613 OPS for the Angels. He is 35.