The 2024 MLB Draft starts July 14 -- and the teams with the top picks are gearing up to make a selection that will impact their franchises for years to come. Looking at recent history is a good reminder that the baseball draft is hardly a sure thing.
Take the Detroit Tigers, for example, who recently sent the top overall pick in the 2020 draft, Spencer Torkelson, down to Triple-A. Torkelson had hit 31 home runs in 2023, but the demotion wasn't necessarily a huge surprise given his numbers in 2024: .201/.266/.330, including going hitless in nine of 10 games before his June 3 demotion.
The Tigers couched it as Torkelson needing to make some adjustments with his swing and approach. For a player who was supposed to be a key part of the Tigers' present and future, it's a disappointing turn of events. Indeed, the Tigers appear on their way to an eighth straight losing season, and the rebuild that began in the late 2010s remains, shall we say, a work in progress.
Despite the difficulty of the MLB draft, nailing high picks can lead to a franchise turnaround. That's a little more difficult now as the anti-tanking draft lottery rules instituted last year mean a team can't draft in the top six more than two years in a row.
What should the Cleveland Guardians -- who are picking No. 1 this year -- and the other teams at the top take from recent history?
Let's go back over the past decade or so and look at some of the franchises who have had multiple high picks over a series of years to see who hit it big -- and who didn't.
Successes
The gold standard: Houston Astros, 2012-2015
2012: 1.1 Carlos Correa (Round 1, pick 1)
2013: 1.1 Mark Appel
2014: 1.1 Brady Aiken (did not sign)
2015: 1.2 Alex Bregman
2015: 1.5 Kyle Tucker
The Astros are the standard-bearer in tanking as they earned the top pick three years in a row, the only team in draft history to achieve that dubious honor. They're also proof that you don't need to hit on every pick to turn your franchise around, as they selected Appel over Kris Bryant in 2013. They were also pilloried for not signing Aiken after red flags showed up on his post-draft medicals, but they received a compensation pick the following year and selected Bregman (while Aiken did indeed undergo Tommy John surgery).
This run of successful picks actually began in the pre-Jeff Luhnow regime, with George Springer selected 11th overall in 2011. Correa was signed to a below-slot bonus as the No. 1 pick, which allowed Houston to draft and sign Lance McCullers Jr. with the 41st pick. Getting four major league regulars -- including Springer -- is difficult enough, but the Astros managed to land four stars (plus McCullers, who while often hurt, was a key contributor in both the 2017 and 2022 World Series runs). It's a plan teams dream of -- but it's nearly impossible to replicate.
The new gold standard: Baltimore Orioles, 2018-2022
2018: 1.11 Grayson Rodriguez
2019: 1.1 Adley Rutschman
2020: 1.2 Heston Kjerstad
2021: 1.5 Colton Cowser
2022: 1.1 Jackson Holliday
Not listed: Gunnar Henderson, taken in the second round in 2019, and Jordan Westburg, taken with the 30th pick of the first round in 2020. This run begins with Rodriguez, who was taken by the previous front office regime as things were falling apart in 2018. General manager Mike Elias inherited that top pick and lucked into a clear No. 1 prospect in Rutschman with his first draft. Holliday wasn't so clear as the Orioles drafted him over Druw Jones -- a pick that does look like the right one, even after Holliday's initial struggles in a 10-game stint in the majors earlier this season.
Under the new rules, the Orioles would have been locked out of Cowser in 2021. A team that receives revenue sharing cannot receive a lottery pick (top six) more than two years in a row; teams that pay into revenue sharing can't draft in the top six in consecutive years. It's too early to tell what impact this will have on tanking, but the Orioles could end up being the last team to benefit under the old rules where draft order was determined solely by on-field record.
Starting to look better: Pittsburgh Pirates, 2020-2023
2020: 1.7 Nick Gonzales
2021: 1.1 Henry Davis
2022: 1.4 Termarr Johnson
2023: 1.1 Paul Skenes
The Pirates will get another top-10 pick this year as they draft ninth overall. They have had just one winning season since last making the playoffs in 2015, hitting rock bottom from 2020 to 2022 -- which landed them two first overall picks. Skenes, the first pitcher taken with the top pick since Casey Mize, is not only matching the hype but exceeding it. He's already an ace, other than just proving he can handle the workload and innings over an extended time.
Davis was a compromise pick in 2021, a year when there was no clear top player; indeed, four other players in the first round received higher bonuses as the Pirates decided to spread out their pool money. Still, you don't want to miss on the first pick, and Davis has struggled in the majors with a .197 average through 357 plate appearances.
Gonzales has been a little slower to develop than hoped as a college hitter, but he might be on his way to a breakout season and becoming a solid contributor. Johnson has been a walk machine in the minors, although the hit tool may not be quite as advanced as believed on draft day. He's hitting .237/.392/.378 in High-A.
Of course, rebuilding organizations are also hoping to get more from the draft than just their top picks (as the Astros did with McCullers). The Pirates hit on Jared Jones, a second-round high schooler in 2020 who is having an excellent rookie season in this year's rotation alongside Skenes. While that rotation should have a bright future, the offense still needs work -- pointing to the importance of Gonzales establishing himself and Johnson rising soon.
Not as cut and dry
The jury remains out: Detroit Tigers, 2018-2023
2018: 1.1 Casey Mize
2019: 1.5 Riley Greene
2020: 1.1 Spencer Torkelson
2021: 1.3 Jackson Jobe
2022: 1.12 Jace Jung
2023: 1.3 Max Clark
OK, let's check those Tigers. The teardown that began with the Justin Verlander trade to the Astros in 2017 resulted in two No. 1 picks. Obviously, you'd like to have done better. Mize is 9-19 in his career with a 4.28 ERA and Tommy John surgery in 2022. Torkelson is back in the minors with minus-1.7 career WAR. Both players were the consensus top picks in their respective draft years, Mize after a great junior season at Auburn and Torkelson after hitting 48 home runs his first two seasons at Arizona State (COVID-19 interrupted his draft season).
To be fair to the Tigers, the rest of the top 10 in Mize's draft year haven't done a whole lot either (Mize is second in WAR behind Jonathan India). I saw him pitch in Double-A and didn't see big swing-and-miss stuff even then -- before he got injured -- but I also don't think he'd go No. 1 with today's emphasis on power four-seamers at the top of the zone.
The COVID draft was operating on less information, but Torkelson was viewed as a sure thing and went first, becoming just the second first baseman drafted first overall (joining Adrian Gonzalez). In retrospect, he had two red flags: (1) He had struck out more than he walked as a sophomore, when the super elite college hitters walk more than they whiff (that had changed early on when he was a junior, but nearly half of his walks had been intentional, plus the Sun Devils hadn't entered tougher conference play); (2) The general lack of athleticism, or maybe athleticism that has backed up since getting drafted, which may explain his problems catching up to fastballs and his poor defensive metrics.
As for the other three picks, Greene is now in his third season and continues to improve. His strikeout rate might keep him from becoming a big star, and he's now more corner outfielder than center fielder, but he's going to be a good player. We'll wait and see on the two high schoolers, Jobe and Clark. High school pitchers are notoriously risky and Jobe has been handled with kid gloves (167 career innings in the minors). He had a hamstring injury that sidelined him for two months this year, but he's one of the top pitching prospects in the minors. The Tigers selected Clark over Wyatt Langford, but Clark is playing well in Low-A and projects as the team's center fielder of the future.
Mixed reviews: Minnesota Twins, 2012-2019
2012: 1.2 Byron Buxton
2013: 1.4 Kohl Stewart
2014: 1.5 Nick Gordon
2015: 1.6 Tyler Jay
2016: 1.15 Alex Kirilloff
2017: 1.1 Royce Lewis
2018: 1.20 Trevor Larnach
2019: 1.13 Keoni Cavaco
I'd forgotten the Twins had five top-six picks in a six-year span. They were bad for quite a spell there, and while they've made the playoffs four times since then, they've been unable to turn all those picks into a dynasty like the Astros or a potential one like the Orioles. This list shows why.
Buxton and Lewis certainly have the talent to justify their selections, but they've been two of the most injury-prone players in MLB history. Stewart was a hard-throwing pitcher and highly-rated high school quarterback in Houston but never developed. Gordon has had a major league career but never developed any plate discipline. Jay got hurt in the minors. Kirilloff is currently a role player for the Twins. Larnach is contributing to the big league team.
Cavaco? He was only the 13th pick, so no automatic expectations there, but he was an interesting selection at the time because he was a complete pop-up prospect as a high school senior. The Twins rolled the dice on his athleticism and power potential, but he never hit in the minors. What stings is that Bryson Stott, another shortstop, was the next pick, and Corbin Carroll went three picks later. Anthony Volpe and Henderson also went in this draft.
All in all, the Twins did pretty good here with seven consecutive first-round picks who made the majors. That's rare. But they didn't really hit any home runs with their picks, unless Lewis can eventually stay healthy and turn into that player. (No disrespect to Buxton, who has been valuable when on the field, but he just hasn't played enough to be labeled a home run pick.)
Medium red machine: Cincinnati Reds, 2015-2019
2015: 1:11 Tyler Stephenson
2016: 1.2 Nick Senzel
2017: 1.2 Hunter Greene
2018: 1.5 Jonathan India
2019: 1.7 Nick Lodolo
The Reds are a lesson that it can take a long time to understand the full ramifications of a rebuild. This group should be the foundation of the next Reds playoff team and it ... might be? Stephenson, Greene, India and Lodolo are all key players on this year's team -- and reasonably productive -- although the Reds are still fighting just to get to .500. None have turned into big stars yet, further evidence that stars don't exactly fall out of trees in baseball, although we can still hold out hope for Greene and Lodolo.
Senzel is now with the Nationals after a tough run with the Reds -- injuries certainly played a large part there, and the Reds were blamed for never settling on one position with him. However, Senzel was hit-over-power in college (he hit only eight home runs his draft season) and he just didn't have the same kind of contact rates in the pros. He was supposed to hit -- but that remains the most difficult tool to project.
The Reds will have another big opportunity this upcoming draft: They pick second overall.
Traded them all away: San Diego Padres, 2016-2020
2016: 1.8 Cal Quantrill
2017: 1.3 MacKenzie Gore
2018: 1.7 Ryan Weathers
2019: 1.6 CJ Abrams
2020: 1.8 Robert Hassell III
Not listed: Max Fried, Hunter Renfroe, Trea Turner and Eric Lauer, first-round picks from 2012 to 2016, all also traded away at some point by president of baseball operations A.J. Preller (although only Lauer was a Preller pick to begin with). It has certainly been a whirlwind decade for Preller and the Padres. Preller's ability to spot talent remains impressive -- throw in James Wood, a second-round pick in 2024, although Wood was also traded -- but the bottom line is the Padres still have never had a 90-win season under him.
Maybe that's a little unfair, as their best team was in the short 2020 season. The Padres have also become enormously popular in San Diego, drawing huge crowds. And the one first-rounder Preller has kept is Jackson Merrill, the 27th pick in 2021 who was just named to his first All-Star team in his rookie season at just 21 years old. It's at least fair to say the Padres have drafted better than most teams and at the same time used the draft differently from every other team. You can decide whether that has been the best approach.
Struggled to hit on their picks
Flat-out failed to hit: Seattle Mariners, 2009-2014
2009: 1.2 Dustin Ackley
2011: 1.2 Danny Hultzen
2012: 1.3 Mike Zunino
2013: 1.12 D.J. Peterson
2014: 1.6 Alex Jackson
We're going back a little bit for this one, but wonder how the Mariners went from 2002 to 2022 without making the postseason? This stretch of high picks was a big reason why. All these picks came under GM Jack Zduriencik, who had made his mark as scouting director of the Brewers before the Mariners hired him.
Ackley is the biggest "what happened?" here. He was regarded as one of the greatest pure hitters in NCAA history after hitting .400 all three years at North Carolina and seemed like a surefire .300 hitter in the majors. He had a solid rookie season, hitting .273, but went backward from there. There were always reports that he didn't like baseball and maybe that played into it, but if we had some of the advanced metrics that we have today, like exit velocity, we might have better understood why Ackley's game didn't translate at a higher level.
There was some bad luck as well. Hultzen had dominated Double-A at the end of 2012 and Triple-A at the start of 2013 when he got injured. Peterson had starred at New Mexico and the Mariners had evaluated him equal to Bryant as a hitter in the 2013 draft class. That summer, Peterson got hit in the face with a pitch, shattering his jaw and leading to six surgeries. He did hit 31 home runs in the minors in 2014, but he would say some self-doubt crept into his mind, and he never reached the majors.
Zduriencik, who had drafted Prince Fielder for the Brewers in 2002, spent the rest of his career trying to find a similar power hitter. Peterson fit that mold, as did Zunino and Jackson. Zunino did have a big All-Star season in the majors, but it came with the Rays, not the Mariners.
The Mariners have drafted better under president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, especially with pitching, getting Logan Gilbert 14th overall in 2018 and George Kirby 20th overall in 2019 (plus Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo in the fourth and sixth rounds in 2021). But they missed on these top picks under Zduriencik.
Failure to land the big one: Miami Marlins, 2019-2023
2019: 1.4 JJ Bleday
2020: 1.3 Max Meyer
2021: 1.16 Kahlil Watson
2022: 1.6 Jacob Berry
2023: 1.10 Noble Meyer
We're going back to the 2019 draft, the first one with the residual effects from the 2017-18 offseason, when the Marlins traded away Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna. There were various people involved in these selections: Derek Jeter, Mike Hill, Kim Ng, Gary Denbo, DJ Svihlik -- all now gone (although owner Bruce Sherman remains).
The Marlins' biggest problem in the draft? Believe it or not, it's not being bad enough. They lost 98 games in 2018, but that only landed them the fourth pick in a draft where Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr. went 1-2. They lost 105 games in 2019, but the 2020 draft was the hard-to-evaluate COVID year. They lost 95 games in 2021, giving them the sixth pick for 2022, which they misfired on badly with Berry, taking him over shortstops Brooks Lee or Zach Neto. A 93-loss season in 2022 landed them only the 10th pick in 2023, which resulted in a high school pitcher. There is still hope for Max Meyer, who had Tommy John surgery, and maybe Noble Meyer will prove to be a good selection. The Marlins are certainly due for some good fortune in the draft.
Still a mess: Colorado Rockies, 2020-2023
2020: 1.9 Zac Veen
2021: 1.8 Benny Montgomery
2022: 1.10 Gabriel Hughes
2023: 1.9 Chase Dollander
The Rockies have never really torn things down and started over -- they just haven't been good since making the playoffs in back-to-back years in 2017 and 2018. This run of top-10 picks will also continue: They're drafting third in 2024 and will certainly have another high pick in 2025.
In 2020 and 2021, they drafted two high school outfielders. Veen's minor league career has been all over the place. He had a big first year in 2021, fell off in 2022, battled a wrist injury and didn't hit in 2023, and then was hitting .339 at Double-A Hartford this year before injuring his back. He's currently rehabbing his way back to the Yard Goats. Montgomery was another toolsy selection who was at Hartford to start 2024, but he had shoulder surgery in April and could miss the rest of the season.
Hughes and Dollander were college pitchers. Hughes is out after having Tommy John surgery last July. Dollander is dominating High-A with 102 strikeouts in 67 innings, so it's probably time for a promotion to Hartford. Bottom line: This group could be anything. One thing is for sure: Given the state of the big league team, the near-term future of the Rockies may depend on them.
In case you haven't learned, the draft is hard: Kansas City Royals, 2019-2023
2019: 1.2 Bobby Witt Jr.
2020: 1.4 Asa Lacy
2021: 1.7 Frank Mozzicato
2022: 1.9 Gavin Cross
2023: 1.8 Blake Mitchell
The Royals are in the hunt for a playoff spot this season, although only superstar Witt is contributing from this run of high draft picks. Lacy, drafted out of Texas A&M, hasn't pitched since 2022 and will miss this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March. Mozzicato was a below-slot high school lefty from Connecticut who hasn't advanced past High-A and needs to improve his control. College outfielder Cross hit just .203 last year but has been much better in Double-A in 2024. Mitchell was a high school catcher, probably the riskiest of players to draft, and is hitting well in Low-A, albeit with a very high strikeout rate. The Royals will have a sixth straight top-10 selection in this draft, although they had some bad luck in the lottery, getting the sixth pick after finishing with the second-worst record in 2023.
You get the general picture: Rebuilding through the draft is a very, very difficult proposition. I do like the new lottery rules that discourage -- or at least don't reward -- perennially losing teams. We've been in the midst of an era when many teams have been losing 100 games year after year, counting on the draft to change their fortunes. And while that won't happen as much anymore, history has shown it's hardly a surefire fix anyway.