Just two weeks after being showcased in the main event, the UFC's lightweight division will take center stage again as Rafael Dos Anjos meets Rafael Fiziev at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday.
Dos Anjos, No. 7 in ESPN's lightweight rankings, is a former champion of the division and is looking to work his way back into title contention with a triumph over Fiziev. Dos Anjos enters on a two-fight win streak following decision victories over Renato Moicano and Paul Felder.
Fiziev, positioned right behind Dos Anjos in the ESPN divisional rankings, is riding a five-fight win streak, with two of the wins coming via finish. He will be taking on his toughest test to date when he enters the Octagon with the former champ.
ESPN's Brett Okamoto touched base with current UFC welterweight and Ultimate Fighter winner Michael Chiesa to get his analysis of how this matchup between two lightweight contenders could play out inside the Octagon. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn added their insights and analysis for everything from the main event to some intriguing bets they like lower on the card.
Lightweight: Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Rafael Fiziev
Michael Chiesa, UFC welterweight
How Dos Anjos wins: RDA's best path to victory is pretty straightforward. Even though he has struggled with big, physical grapplers, I know firsthand from fighting him there are certain matchups where he can exploit the other guy's wrestling, and this is one of them. It would be best for RDA to use his wrestling to avoid a pure stand-up fight with this guy. I don't see RDA having the same defensive skills that Bobby Green showed against Fiziev, as Green was able to roll with some of those power strikes. But Dos Anjos can use his wrestling to get the fight to the ground or to create other opportunities. Taking shots at takedowns is the best way to get a guy's striking defense down. He hasn't always been able to use wrestling to his advantage, but any time he does have that advantage, he needs to use it.
How Fiziev wins: Fiziev has more power. There's a lot more power in his shots, as he loads up on his punches and lets loose with combinations. There is a certain showmanship to Fiziev, and that comes with confidence. He will need to move laterally against RDA, and he does that well. For a guy who comes from a Muay Thai background, he doesn't move in a straight line too much. He does a good job with lateral movement and finding those opportunities to blitz with combinations and use his kicks. I don't think there's anything he needs to do differently. The only weakness I can see is his conditioning. So, for him, it's about just doing what he does well and conserving energy. He needs to manage his energy in a fight that could go five rounds.
X factor: Cardio. Fiziev needs to be in good shape and have the explosiveness and willingness to pursue the finish, because if this fight goes five rounds, I don't think that's good for him.
Prediction: I'm picking Fiziev. I believe he has the ability and the tools to go out there and get an emphatic finish over RDA. I think Fiziev is on the short list of people who can do that.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Dos Anjos to win (+175). Fiziev might be a contender at a lightweight, but he'll have to get through the division's former champion first. Dos Anjos isn't an easy out for anyone, as shown by the 10 rounds he spent going toe-to-toe with the best of the welterweight division. Now back in the lightweight division, he won't give up much size.
Fighting on the feet has been Fiziev's specialty. He is an impressively accurate striker but arguably one with sloppy defense. Dos Anjos pairs well against him, having a more successful ground game and having avoided taking much damage from larger, more dangerous strikers.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Bantamweight: Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Said Nurmagomedov
Kuhn: Nurmagomedov to win (-260). Despite sharing a name and and coming from Dagestan like the lightweight GOAT, Said Nurmagomedov is unrelated to Khabib Nurmagomedov. But Said Nurmagomedov still brings a well-rounded fighting style into the cage, with dual-finishing threats and an ability to grind. He has the highest significant strikes landed per minute differential of any male fighter on the card, which always bodes well for round-to-round scoring.
Parker: Fight does not go the distance. With both fighters riding a two-fight win streak, and with both victories coming by way of finish, I don't expect this fight to go the distance. In Silva de Andrade's most recent bout, he made a miraculous comeback after getting dropped in the first round and submitted Sergey Morozov in the second. However, if Nurmagomedov gets off to a quick start as he did in his previous bout, I don't see Silva de Andrade being able to come back, as Nurmagomedov has shown no signs of slowing down as the fight goes on.
Heavyweight: Jared Vanderaa vs. Chase Sherman
Parker: Vanderaa to win (-200). Vanderaa should be the better fighter everywhere, and if the fight goes to the mat, Sherman will not be a submission threat off his back.
Middleweight: Cody Brundage vs. Tresean Gore
Parker: Gore to win (-135). In his prior fight, Brundage went from nearly getting finished to getting a submission win in the same round. However, if he gets tagged by Gore early on, I don't see Brundage being able to recover. In Gore's previous outing, despite dropping Bryan Battle in the second round, his lack of volume kept him from getting the win. As long as Gore can keep the fight standing, his power and striking will be too much for Brundage.
Light heavyweight: Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Karl Roberson
Kuhn: Nzechukwu to win (-135). Consider the looming striking war between Nzechukwu and Roberson for an affordable favorite on this card. Roberson has struggled with grapplers; for his sake, that isn't much of a risk here. But Nzechukwu not only has superior striking metrics, he'll also have an enormous size advantage, as Roberson is one fight removed from fighting at middleweight.
Bantamweight: Ronnie Lawrence vs. Saidyokub Kakhramonov
Parker: Lawrence to win (-140). I like Lawrence here. I think he is the better striker and is sufficient enough on the ground that he will be able to get back up and get the fight to the feet if needed. I think the pressure and pace, which has been Lawrence's strong suit thus far, will get him another victory in the UFC.