The UFC's year will begin the same way last year ended: with a Sean Strickland fight.
Strickland, who dropped a split decision to Jared Cannonier in the main event of the final UFC Fight Night of 2022 on Dec. 17, was called upon earlier this week to fight Nassourdine Imavov in Saturday's year-opening main event at UFC Apex in Las Vegas (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. on ESPN+).
Imavov originally was scheduled for a middleweight fight with Kelvin Gastelum, but Gastelum withdrew from the fight on Monday because of a mouth injury. Strickland agreed to fill in as Imavov's opponent, and because of the late-notice booking, the fight will be contested at light heavyweight.
According to ESPN Stats & Information research, Strickland will be the first fighter to headline consecutive UFC events since Tito Ortiz did so at UFC 50 (December 2004) and UFC 51 (February 2005).
Brett Okamoto spoke to MMA coach and television analyst Din Thomas to get his breakdown of the main event. ESPN's betting experts, Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn, add their insights on the headline fight and other bets that intrigue them.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Light heavyweight: Sean Strickland vs. Nassourdine Imavov
Din Thomas, MMA coach and UFC TV analyst
How Strickland wins: Move forward, keep the jab going and get this to the later rounds. The fact he's coming in on short notice doesn't bother me, because Sean is the type of dude who likes to fight. He likes to train and he knows how to pace himself in a five-round fight. Imavov is immature when it comes to later rounds, so Strickland has to take advantage of that. He also has to take advantage of the opponent change. Imavov was supposed to fight Gastelum, a southpaw who moves a bit. Going from that to a straight up, tall, orthodox boxer is going to be a hard adjustment to make on five days' notice. Strickland can make that apparent early and get in his face.
How Imavov wins: Imavov is the more versatile fighter. He's obviously a kicker, while Strickland really isn't. He's got better lateral movement, better movement forward and back. I think he's also just a little more coordinated in the way he operates. His body type and style make him a lot slicker than Strickland, who can be robotic. For Imavov to win, he needs to out-point Strickland from the outside and try to keep the fight at range. He has to steal rounds when they're close, sort of the way his teammate [UFC heavyweight] Ciryl Gane can steal close rounds by picking his shots. Don't get caught up in any crazy flurries and don't get caught trapped against the fence.
X-factor: The ground. When we saw Imavov fight Joaquin Buckley, he seemed to fall apart in moments. And the moments he fell apart were when Buckley started to put pressure on him and it forced him to take panic shots. He took a few panic shots in that fight, but he was able to get Buckley to the ground. I don't think he'll be able to get Strickland to the ground with those kinds of shots, and Strickland can put damage on him if he tries.
Prediction: Strickland by decision. I think this is a good matchup for Strickland, stylistically.
Betting analysis
Parker: Imavov to win (-110): Strickland is coming off a close decision loss to Jared Cannonier, and to get back in the win column, he has to push the pace and move forward with his strikes. If he continues to sit on his back foot and jab while backing up, he will lose another decision. For Imavov, this is an opportunity for a step up in competition and get a big-name win on his résumé. Imavov has been training for a five-round main event against Gastelum, who is a technical striker with good wrestling and good cardio. I believe that Imavov's striking is as good as, if not better than, Strickland's, and he will be able to take advantage of Strickland's lack of aggression and forward-moving pace. As long as Imavov's cardio can hold up, I think he gets the win here.
Kuhn: Lean Imavov to win, at even or plus money. The last UFC event is a distant memory, and yet here we are in the exact same position, scratching our heads over a tossup main event involving Sean Strickland. It's a tricky matchup, mainly because all of Strickland's matchups seem to be tricky lately. The market likes Strickland's odds against Imavov better than it did the original opponent, Kelvin Gastelum. But there's risk in Strickland taking a fight on such short notice, so soon after losing a difficult decision last month, in a bout in which he ate some big shots.
Purely by the numbers, it's still close to a tossup. The numbers give a slight edge to Imavov, crediting his ability to take minimal damage while still landing power strikes with high accuracy. I'm always suspicious of potentially damaged goods in the cage, so the slight lean for Imavov seems playable given Strickland's rapid return. Hopefully you won't lay much juice here.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Men's bantamweight: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Raoni Barcelos
Parker: Nurmagomedov by decision. Nurmagomedov is arguably the brightest prospect in this division, and in Barcelos he's getting the type of opponent that he asked for after his last win. For Barcelos, derailing the hype train of Nurmagomedov will be very difficult. Nurmagomedov's forward pressure, striking and grappling will be sure to cause problems throughout the three-round fight. Barcelos' last five fights have all gone to decision, and Nurmagomedov won his most recent fight by decision. I expect Nurmagomedov to use his wrestling to avoid the risk posed by the striking of Barcelos, and grapple his way to victory.
Middleweight: Punahele Soriano vs. Roman Kopylov
Parker: Soriano to win (-160). Both fighters are coming off of a knockout win after suffering back-to-back losses. Between the two, this is a tougher matchup for Kopylov. He has to be mindful of the power of Soriano, and he also will have to be very careful of Soriano's wrestling. In my opinion, this matchup better suits the style of Soriano. He's the better fighter everywhere, and as long as he doesn't fall behind in striking volume while looking for the KO, he should come out the victor.
Kuhn: Kopylov to win (+135). On a card loaded with tight matchups, you hunt for value lurking among the underdogs. In this middleweight bout, both Kopylov and Soriano can crack, so expect plenty of action. They've scored seven knockdowns between them in their short UFC careers, and neither likes to take things to the mat. Should they sling leather, whichever one lands first could dictate the round. Kopylov has an edge in range and in defense, so he's more than game. And with such similar offensive striking metrics, the value lies with the plus money.
Men's featherweight: Dan Ige vs. Damon Jackson
Parker: Ige to win (-120). Ige has lost three fights in a row, while Jackson is in a career resurgence after a huge TKO win over Pat Sabatini. This is a big step up for Jackson, and a win here arguably would be the biggest of his career. I don't believe Jackson is going to have the better striking or better grappling, or be able to control Ige wherever the flight goes. So unless Jackson lands the way he did against Sabatini, I think Ige will push forward, use a clinch against the cage and control Jackson throughout the entire fight to get the win.
Women's flyweight: Sijara Eubanks vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Kuhn: Cachoeira to win (+195). Eubanks has been hit or miss with her grappling. And while Cachoeira has a base in jiu-jitsu, she hasn't relied on it, nor has she needed to. If we give the grappling edge to Eubanks, the betting matchup comes down to a grappler versus a dangerous underdog striker. Assuming that Cachoeira's takedown defense holds, at least for some extended periods, she should be landing the more damaging shots from a distance. Her increasingly confident standup will be a threat throughout the fight, and at nearly a 2-1 return, there's value in the Brazilian fighter.