Former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman looks to reclaim the title as he challenges champion Leon Edwards at UFC 286. The event takes place at O2 Arena in London on Saturday (5 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV).
Edwards, ranked No. 7 on ESPN's pound-for-pound list, beat Usman by knockout to win the title in August at UFC 278. His last loss was to Usman in December 2015. Usman, No. 4 on the pound-for-pound rankings, holds the record for the longest win streak in UFC welterweight history (15).
In the co-main event, Justin Gaethje makes his return to the Octagon after nearly a year to face rising lightweight contender Rafael Fiziev.
Gaethje, ranked No. 5 in ESPN's divisional rankings, lost to Charles Oliveira in a fight for the 155-pound title in his last appearance. Fiziev, ranked No. 7, is riding a six-fight win streak.
Marc Raimondi spoke to UFC welterweight contender Belal Muhammad to get his perspective on the main event and Fight Ready MMA coach Santino DeFranco for his thoughts on the co-main event. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn add their insights and analysis for the main event and other intriguing bets they like.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Welterweight title fight: Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman
Belal Muhammad, UFC welterweight contender
How Edwards wins: Come out fast. You don't know how Usman will come back following that knockout last summer. I wouldn't want to give him a chance to catch rhythm or get comfortable. I'm guessing that Usman will be uncomfortable. He's fighting the same guy that just knocked him out. I've fought somebody that knocked me out before, and that fear is in the back of your head no matter what. Whether he was dominating the fight or not, he still got knocked out. So, that fear will be in his head like, "Man, will this dude do that again? I can't lose again. I can't let that same thing happen again."
So, if I'm Edwards, I want to come out hard, because I don't think he can compete in a wrestling match with Usman. The only way Usman will get comfortable is if he gets Edwards on his back foot, back to the fence and shelling up. Edwards needs to take the center of the Octagon, stay in Usman's face and come out striking right away. I'd come out with two or three of those head kicks right away just to make Usman hesitant and think.
How Usman wins: Grab a hold of Edwards early, and get comfortable, then try to get an early takedown. You don't want to play in that striking range early, because there's still that level of the unknown. Can he still take a strike? You don't want to go in there cocky, thinking it can't happen again. Mentally, Usman is probably one of the strongest fighters.
He trains with Trevor Wittman in Colorado, and they always have a good game plan for rematches. Usman knows how the wrestling went in the last fight -- he dominated there. He saw that he was breaking Edwards, even in the striking. So, take Edwards down, get on top and give him some good elbows. It's in Edwards' hometown, so let the crowd boo. Don't get restless and try to do something crazy. This is the fight. You just get your ball back and win.
X factor: Where is Usman mentally? When fighting in a rematch, you think about it differently. If we see him on his back foot right away, then we'll know something is up. I think Rose Namajunas vs. Carla Esparza 2 is a good example. Namajunas was very hesitant in the rematch. I think it was because she got finished in their first fight. It's a mental hurdle you've got to get over. Can Usman get over it?
Prediction: Usman. I like that Usman hasn't done a lot of media and hasn't gone the cocky route. That's his biggest strength: his mentality. Not his wrestling and grappling. I think this fight will be a straight-up wrestling match. Usman will win the earlier rounds and it'll be the same thing as their last fight. I just think this time he won't take his foot off the gas. I expect him to dominate.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: pass; over 2.5 rounds for parlays. I'm not in the business of predicting lightning, but that's what Edwards backers are hoping to do. Sure, Edwards got the knockout victory with under a minute to spare at their last meeting. But it happened in a fight where Usman appeared to be cruising towards a unanimous victory. It's hard to imagine he'll be so cavalier in this trilogy bout.
That said, I think the odds are appropriate. Usman has shown he can win rounds more consistently, while Edwards has shown he can steal pivotal moments. It's still an upward battle for Edwards though, and I'd only play the 'dog if I saw more lucrative odds. Otherwise, I'll expect him to put up a decent fight and force championship rounds.
Parker: Usman to win (-260) or Usman by decision (+100). Edwards will have to make adjustments in this rubber match, as I don't foresee him landing another come-from-behind knockout kick. As long as Usman is still motivated, and I believe he will be, I expect him to go back to his wrestling, to secure the win.
Lightweight: Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev
Santino DeFranco, Fight Ready MMA coach
How Gaethje wins: He's got to create a slugfest. He does best when people engage him in a brawl. The way to avoid leg kicks and calf kicks generally is to crowd the kicker. But Gaethje has figured out how to land those calf kicks, even during close distance boxing exchanges. He loves the wildness and chaos. He's actually more technical than people give him credit for -- his technical boxing is decent. His wrestling is good too; he was a Division I collegiate All-American. But he's not a guy who worries about tactics. He's just going to get into firefights and hope his hands are up and that he does all the right stuff better than his opponent. He wants that. He's like, "Hey, let's go punch for punch and see whose chin is a little higher, whose hands are a little bit lower, whose balance is a little bit off." Because he knows that he's going to be where he needs to be in those situations.
How Fiziev wins: He has to avoid getting baited into a firefight. He needs to be tactical and to stay outside. But he's got to feint and draw Gaethje in to make him think he wants the firefight and then back away. Get Gaethje to swing and miss, then come in and counter. He's a much better technical kickboxer than Gaethje. It's not that Gaethje isn't good at what he does, he is. Consider him a technical brawler. He's not just sloppy and swinging for the fences. Gaethje blasts calf kicks that slow the movement of an opponent and gets him to engage in a slugfest. That's how he wins. Fiziev can't fall into that trap.
X factor: For Gaethje, it's the calf kick. Can he implement the calf kicks and slow down Fiziev's footwork? Gaethje has to use them early and often. If not, Fiziev's footwork and movement will give Gaethje problems. But if Gaethje can get the kicks going, that will force Fiziev to engage in a brawl.
Prediction: I think Fiziev is going to win. But I don't know how. Initially, I thought Gaethje might win this. But if you look at the guys he is beating, he's kind of a legacy killer. Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone. Tony Ferguson. He's beating these guys who are good, but were past their primes. The more tactical guys -- Dustin Poirier, Eddie Alvarez -- these guys are tough and they're going to fight you in the pocket, but they're also going to set stuff up. They're not going to go toe-to-toe and see whose chin is better. I think that's Fiziev. He's smart and he's tactical.
Betting analysis
Parker: over 1.5 Rounds. For Gaethje, this is one of the worst matchups for him stylistically. If he wants to pull off the upset, he is going to have to wrestle. Fiziev is a world-class Muay Thai striker and extremely technical, something Gaethje has struggled with in the past. However, in each of his last four fights, Gaethje has gone over 1.5 rounds. I believe this fight gets there as well. For Fiziev, he should look to use those nasty leg kicks and work the body to tire Gaethje and take away his power. In five of his last six fights, Fiziev has gone either to Round 3 or Round 5. If you are looking for a finish from Fiziev, take it late.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Featherweight: Jack Shore vs. Makwan Armikhani
Kuhn: Shore to win (-500) by TKO. This feels like a brutal matchup for Amirkhani, who has absorbed some vicious knockouts of late.
Shore has the takedown defense and grappling credentials to dictate where this fight takes place. And the longer he keeps it standing, the more likely he is to win on pace, accuracy and power. Amirkhani cutting another 10 pounds probably won't help him on the feet, as he'll have even less mass to absorb the onslaught.
Women's flyweight: Joanne Wood vs. Luana Carolina
Kuhn: Carolina to win (+160). It's tough to bet against the likable Wood, especially fighting closer to home than usual, but it seems her best days are behind her. She matches up closely with Carolina in performance metrics, but there's a glaring age differential working against Wood.
Carolina will be younger, faster and longer. In a fight that could remain standing and be closely scored, that could be the difference in swaying rounds. As a nearly 2-1 'dog, Carolina should at least force a close decision, and maybe even turn up the volume enough to take the upset.
Lightweight: Jai Herbert vs. Ludovit Klein
Parker: Klein to win (-190). Although Herbert has nine knockout victories to his résumé, I believe Klein is the better striker and, if needed, can fall back on his ground game and submissions as he will have a major advantage there.