Two of the top bantamweights in the UFC will make their first Octagon appearances of 2023 on Saturday in San Antonio. Former bantamweight title challenger Cory Sandhagen will face Marlon Vera for a chance to move closer to a shot at the 135-pound title in the main event of this weekend's UFC Fight Night (7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN+).
Vera, ranked No. 3 in ESPN's divisional rankings, is riding a four-fight winning streak. His most recent win was a fourth-round knockout of Dominick Cruz in August 2022. Sandhagen, ranked No. 6, beat Song Yadong by TKO in his most recent bout in September 2022.
Brett Okamoto spoke to UFC welterweight Michael Chiesa to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn add their insights and analysis on both main events and other intriguing bets they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
UFC bantamweight: Marlon Vera vs. Cory Sandhagen
Michael Chiesa, UFC welterweight and ESPN analyst
How Vera wins: The one thing I would tell him is something I feel he doesn't need reminding of right now -- but in his past few fights, Vera has shown impeccable timing. We saw in the Dominick Cruz fight. Cruz is a smart fighter, he knew he wanted to get out to an early lead, put the pedal to the metal. Vera did such a good job of staying within himself and relying on his timing -- and with good timing comes good power.
If we look at his fight against Rob Font, he was getting grossly outpointed. The numbers were staggering in Font's favor, but he relied on good timing and that led to the moments that gave him the win. I think that's important in this fight, because I just feel if you try to go tit-for-tat with Sandhagen, you're going to fall behind. The only time we saw Sandhagen just get outgunned was the Petr Yan fight, and Sandhagen took that on short notice and that was one of the best versions of Petr we've seen.
So, for Vera, stay within yourself and rely on your timing to create that damage. He's not going to do it with numbers, he's going to do it with timing.
How Sandhagen wins: Mix it up. Sandhagen is as good of a striker as anybody in the UFC, but I feel like with Vera, it's not a bad idea to put him on his back. We've seen Sandhagen do that in the Mario Bautista fight -- that was sensational ground work.
I would like to see Sandhagen mix in some grappling. If you want to offset Vera's timing, you have to show him some takedowns and make him miss big. Vera doesn't mind relying on his guard. He has a dangerous guard and he'll hunt for submissions, but that's a dangerous game to play because you can burn time up on your back and start losing on the scores.
I feel like if Sandhagen can work in takedowns and get Vera complacent on his back, he can bank rounds.
X factor: I always think wrestling is a potential X factor in any fight, but for this one, where we don't see it a lot from either guy, it can be a big factor. Sandhagen is known for dynamic striking and Vera is known as one of the power punchers of the division, but I feel like if one of them can mix in offensive wrestling, it could really offset the other.
Prediction: I think there's something in the air for Chito Vera right now. I do think there is a world title in Sandhagen's future -- he is that talented -- but something tells me Vera will pull it off.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Vera at plus money (+130). This fight is likely to be a back-and-forth duel that boils down to volume versus power. Sandhagen averages a blistering pace of more than 17 strikes thrown per minute while at a distance. But that volume just doesn't carry the same threat as Vera's knockout power. With 12 knockdowns recorded, and a 4.6% knockdown rate per landed power head strike, Vera is arguably the most dangerous fighter on this entire card.
While Sandhagen's volume and high-altitude cardio could position him for winning rounds, Vera's mix of leg kicks and dangerous head strikes could add up over time. He's dealt with volume strikers before and has proven to be impossible to finish. That gives him five full rounds to make key moments matter and steal the upset.
Parker: Sandhagen to win (-170). If Sandhagen fights Vera the way he fought Yadong, this could be a long night for Vera, who is a slow starter. Sandhagen needs to push the pace early and continue to move in and out while mixing in his takedowns. Doing this will take away Vera's power and his chances of pulling off a comeback in the later rounds. Before getting the knockout win over Cruz, Vera was down on the scorecards. If he falls behind early against Sandhagen, which I suspect he will, I don't see him being able to come back. Sandhagen is a smart fighter; he knows how to stay away from danger and stick to his plan.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Women's bantamweight: Holly Holm vs. Yana Santos
Kuhn: Holm to win (-225). Holm may be on the wrong side of 40, but she still has some of the most reliable distance striking in the division. She makes a tricky dance partner whenever she finds her range -- throwing consistent combinations while absorbing little damage in return.
Considering the time Santos has taken away from the sport, this makes for a tough return fight matchup. Santos has been dropped before, so she'll need to be careful with head kicks from Holm. Whether by strikes or by decision, I think Holm is a worthy favorite.
Women's flyweight: Andrea Lee vs. Maycee Barber
Parker: Lee to win (+230). Barber is taking on her highest-ranked opponent to date in Lee. Though Barber is sitting as an almost 3-1 favorite due to the stylistic matchup, those odds are way too high. As talented as Barber is, I think the oddsmakers have it wrong here as I believe Lee might just be better wherever the fight goes. If Lee can dictate the pace and be the aggressive striker that she has been in her last two wins, I think she is worth a flier at these odds.
Men's flyweight: Alex Perez vs. Manel Kape
Kuhn: Kape to win (-190). While the fight is standing, Kape is a little sharper and more dangerous with his striking, though Perez might be busier as he pushes forward. Backing Kape here means hoping he uses Perez's aggression against him.
That's a bet that Kape's takedown defense will hold up. At 80%, his takedown defense rate is strong, while Perez's takedown success rate is near average. However, Perez might make up for mediocre success with high volume, as his wrestling is his best path to an upset. I'm surprised at the price here, so waiting to see if Perez backers tighten things up is a good idea.
Middleweight: Chidi Njokuani vs. Albert Duraev
Parker: Njokuani to win (-165). Njokuani has an opportunity here to get back to his winning ways if he can keep the fight standing against Duraev, a relentless grappler. Duraev's last fight showed us what happens if he can't get the fight to the ground. He gets picked apart on the feet and he gasses trying for the takedowns. Njokuani is extremely strong and should have no issue defending the takedowns as long as he doesn't put himself out of position. I think he will be able to keep it standing and get another highlight reel knockout.