This week's look around the NBA features a rising star in Memphis, structural change with the Los Angeles Lakers, the scuffling Dallas Mavericks, and rip-throughs gone wrong.
1. Jaren Jackson Jr. is everywhere
Jackson always loomed as the Memphis Grizzlies' wild card. If he became an All-Star-level player, the Grizzlies might build something special around Ja Morant, Jackson, Desmond Bane (developing into an All-Star type in his own right), and whatever surrounding talent they acquired.
Injuries short-circuited Jackson's second season just as he looked to be growing into a high-volume stretch big man -- capable of shooting off the catch, off the dribble, and on the move. Injuries vaporized Year 3. Jackson emerged as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate last season, but his shooting and one-on-one scoring wobbled.
After missing the opening month recovering from foot surgery, Jackson has exploded into this season like the Kool-Aid Man -- smashing every shot in his vicinity, covering inexplicable amounts of space, and posting career-best scoring and shooting numbers. If this is who Jackson is, the Grizzlies -- No. 1 in the West, on a seven-game winning streak -- can win the West. If he keeps improving, their long-term ceiling gets scary.
Jackson is becoming the NBA's ultimate "hearing footsteps" guy. He can be anywhere, anytime. If you're in one corner with the ball and you just saw him in the opposite corner, do not assume you are safe:
Scorers are going to start glancing around for Jackson even when he's not in the game.
Jackson led the league with 2.3 blocks per game last season. He's at 3.3 now. He's rejecting 4.8 shots per 36 minutes. Only five players have cracked the 5.0 mark; no one has done it since Jim McIlvaine in 1995-96. Opponents are shooting 43% at the rim with Jackson nearby. That is absurd. Some of those shots barely leave the shooter's hands before Jackson obliterates them.
He's not reckless, either. Jackson is so long and fast, he can get away with risking longer rotations than almost anyone. He times those rotations for the second ball-handlers turn their backs -- so they can't see Jackson coming and kick the ball to his guy.
He's nailing all the fundamentals:
That is gorgeous -- a subtle masterpiece. Jackson dictates terms against Saddiq Bey. He jabs forward, freezing Bey and fooling him into thinking the lob to Jalen Duren is open. When Bey looks there, Jackson floats backward -- smothering the passing lane. That emboldens Bey to try a layup. Nope.
Jackson can switch across all five positions, execute any scheme, and work next to very different big man partners -- like Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke. When Jackson, Clarke and Ziaire Williams are all on the floor, the combined speed and length is scary; opponents can barely see the rim amid all the whirring arms.
Fouling is still an issue; Jackson hacked his way out of the Grizzlies 41-point destruction of the Milwaukee Bucks Thursday night -- a statement win for Memphis.
Despite missing those 14 games, Jackson should absolutely be in the Defensive Player of the Year race if he stays healthy.
The Grizzlies should at least think about a minor deal to upgrade the back of their rotation. They showed last season their helter-skelter style translates to the playoffs better than some skeptics anticipated. The improvement already on record from Bane and Jackson should boost the Grizz half-court offense when postseason games slow down. They are ready now.
2. When the Dallas bigs go for two!
What a slog this season is becoming for Team Holding Pattern. Every third game, they catch the rhythm of their conference finals run -- mostly because they happen to hit 3s. Tim Hardaway Jr. and Reggie Bullock find their strokes, and for a blissful few hours the "So, what exactly are we doing around Luka Doncic?" existentialism fades.
The Mavs lead the league in free throw rate, so they're not entirely dependent on 3s -- but damned if it doesn't feel that way. Doncic supplies a lot of those free throws himself, and on too many nights the Mavs get nothing in transition or at the rim. Threes are fickle. The rim is king. It is reliable, and the Mavs are starved for more reliability.
When defenses trap Doncic, his screening partners should do more of this:
Hardaway and Dorian Finney-Smith are open when Maxi Kleber catches that pass. Kleber and the Dallas bigs are not required by law to pass to those shooters. Hunt the tin! (In fairness, Dwight Powell is a voracious rim-runner and Christian Wood has spent less time loitering around the arc.)
No one is calling for some sea change; the Luka-and-3s machine works in the aggregate. But recalibrating 5% of their offense toward rim pursuit would help against the best teams.
None of this addresses the Mavs' need for a second creator better than Spencer Dinwiddie and a third option better than ... present-day Dirk Nowitzki? Derek Harper? Jason Kidd?
I had hopes for the Doncic/Dinwiddie/Wood triumvirate, but Dallas is minus-34 in 106 minutes with those three on the floor. Kidd is reluctant to use Wood as the only big man. The Doncic/Wood/Kleber trio has been fantastic, but the foursome of Doncic, Dinwiddie, Wood, and Kleber has logged just 14 minutes. Is that something?
What's that? Kleber -- the most well-rounded and therefore least replaceable Dallas big -- is out at least six weeks? Ugh.
This team is confusing and strange. Doncic's body language is reaching "LeBron before the 2018 trade deadline" levels of sullenness.
3. What is the Charlotte Hornets' offense without LaMelo Ball?
Thank the basketball gods Ball is back, because I could not stomach much more of this aimlessness:
Without Ball, the Hornets have zero identity -- no organizing principle. (They miss Gordon Hayward too; he's still an important connector.) They pitch the ball around, defenders ducking pick after pick, until someone shoots or bumper-cars inside. Sure, P.J. Washington, hoist a step-back 21-footer with 14 on the shot clock!
Charlotte is last in offensive efficiency. Terry Rozier is shooting 40%. I barely blink at 9-of-27 stat lines from Kelly Oubre Jr. There is an alarming amount of Mason Plumlee happening. Charlotte is 29th in field goal percentage at the rim, 30th on midrangers, and 27th on 3s. I'm almost impressed.
I'm not sure what solutions were even available to Steve Clifford. Ball at least gives Charlotte a governing ethos -- chaos and pace -- and slots everyone else one spot lower in the hierarchy.
Charlotte jumped five spots in the 2020 lottery to get Ball, and it somehow feels as if it needs another massive dose of lottery luck already.
4. Nicolas Batum, always doing the right thing
Are the LA Clippers finally becoming a basketball team, and not a science experiment with officials in white coats texting Tyronn Lue about who must be removed and when?
They've won three of four, including an emphatic 20-point thrashing of the Boston Celtics on Monday. That was Kawhi Leonard's best game of the season -- the first in which he looked assertive after deferring more than usual in prior games and struggling to get separation on his jumper. (That's a work in progress.)
Batum is a constant as the ideal gap-filling role player. He's shooting 40% on 3s for the third straight season -- the most important skill for any LA role player other than the stalwart Ivica Zubac. Batum always seems to be in the middle of good stretches with extra passes, deflections, flare screens, little stunts on defense -- all the grimy stuff that leads to winning. He's posting the third-best defensive rebounding rate of his career, and blocking 1.2 shots per 36 minutes -- his most ever. Batum has the second-highest plus-minus on the team.
The Clips are plus-49 in 74 minutes with Batum, Leonard, and Paul George on the floor. The small jolt of rim protection Batum provides has made him an essential ingredient in LA's super-small, center-less lineups; Robert Covington was supposed to be the shot-blocking "center" in those groups, but he has been in and out of the rotation. In a tiny sample, the Clippers have blitzed teams in small-ball alignments featuring Batum, Leonard, and George.
For this roster to hit its ceiling, the Clips need something from Covington. They really need to see how their full-strength small-ball groups fare before the trade deadline.
5. The places Russell Westbrook can't be
Moving Westbrook to the bench helped stabilize the Los Angeles Lakers. He can handle the ball more, and has great chemistry with Anthony Davis during LeBron James' rest periods. The shift has reduced the time all three L.A. stars share the floor, and that is healthy. The Lakers need that trio to produce, and they have a better chance in shorter bursts.
The Lakers have played Westbrook, James, and Davis together about 12 minutes per game since Westbrook became their sixth man; they are a solid plus-21 in those minutes.
If you mapped Westbrook's off-ball movement patterns, I'd bet you'd find him high on the wings much less than he was earlier in the season:
That is the worst place for Westbrook when James has the ball. It's too easy for his man to sit at the nail and clog everything up.
The Lakers have shifted Westbrook lower on the floor, to places where it is dicier to stray from him -- the corners, or the dunker spot. They've deployed him some as an off-ball screener, and fed him some pick-and-rolls -- with James stationed in the corners. (I almost mentioned the possibility of Westbrook setting more ball screens for James, but I now wear a bracelet that emits an electric shock every time I do that.)
The only answer is to mix things up. Too much of Westbrook standing in any one place becomes predictable. When the Celtics realized Westbrook was chilling in the corners in that epic overtime game Tuesday, they stuck Luke Kornet on him and had Kornet barricade the paint.
It's nice that Westbrook has embraced a bench role, but he's not a good fit with James and Davis. The Lakers should (and will) continue investigating Westbrook trades, even if a smaller non-Westbrook deal is more likely now.
6. Devin Vassell, shot-maker
Vassell has been the San Antonio Spurs' best player. He's averaging 20 points, a tick behind Keldon Johnson, but he has been much more efficient than Johnson -- and a slightly better playmaker.
Vassell is shooting 45% overall and 41% from deep on a difficult diet of contested jumpers. Vassell wouldn't jack so many of those on a good team, but taking and making them on a bad one bodes well. He can hit catch-and-shoot 3s off fast-paced cuts, including delicate stop-on-a-dime jobs:
That is a tricky piece of footwork -- drifting toward Doug McDermott, then bolting away from him and balancing in the tight confines of the corner to hit that leaning triple. Vassell has hit 58% (!) on corner 3s and 51% of long 2s -- many of which have been pull-ups out of the pick-and-roll.
Vassell is running 20 pick-and-rolls per 100 possessions, triple his rate from last season, per Second Spectrum. The Spurs are averaging 1.08 points when Vassell shoots out of the two-man game, or passes to a teammate who fires -- 29th out of 147 players who have run at least 100 such plays.
Vassell is averaging 3.3 free throws and four dimes per 36 minutes -- double his previous career numbers. Most of those assists have come off simple reads (generous hometown scoring has helped), but nailing those is an important first step.
Vassell hasn't met expectations on defense, but that's forgivable for a borderline No. 1 option in this circumstance. He has the tools to become very good there too.
7. Drew Eubanks, switch machine? What?
Over three-plus anonymous seasons with the Spurs, Eubanks injected his brief stints with a certain violent flare. He dunked with rage, and swatted at shots as if the ball had done something bad to his family.
The Portland Trail Blazers saw something more -- including an ability to switch against pick-and-rolls.
Eubanks switched on only 59 total picks last season in San Antonio, per Second Spectrum. That changed the minute Portland snapped him up on a 10-day contract.
Eubanks is switching on 12 pick-and-rolls per 100 possessions this season -- a hair more often than Bam freaking Adebayo, the switch king. Only five rotation players top that figure: Nicolas Claxton, Mohamed Bamba, Wendell Carter Jr., Usman Garuba, and Larry Nance Jr. Portland has allowed a miniscule 0.88 points chance when Eubanks switches onto ball handlers.
Quicker guards can get by Eubanks, but he sticks close enough to bother their shots from behind:
Missed layups turn into transition chances. That switch by Eubanks on defense means the matchups are scrambled when Portland gains possession; it's hard to corral fast breaks with everyone trying to figure out who to guard.
Switching also places Eubanks at the top of the defense -- ideal position to rim-run. He sprints the floor, sucking in the defense and generating open 3s for teammates:
Eubanks is fine in more conservative schemes too; opponents have hit just 51.7% of shots in the restricted area with Eubanks as the closest defender -- one of the half-dozen or so lowest marks in the league among rotation bigs, per NBA.com. Portland has sunk to 23rd in points allowed per possession, but that has nothing to do with Eubanks. He has proven a solid find.
8. Bones Hyland can't be a sinkhole on defense
The Denver Nuggets are second in offensive efficiency and 28th in defense, and face some stark lineup choices in trying to fix the latter without chipping away at the former. Some of those choices probably aren't as black and white as they seemed a few months ago.
Two defense-first types -- Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown -- are thriving on offense orbiting Nikola Jokic. Michael Porter Jr. will always skew offense, but he's made strides on the other end.
Next up: Hyland, their brash sixth man, shooting 44% on 3s and building bob-and-weave pick-and-roll chemistry with Jokic. Denver needs Hyland's offense in its endless quest to tread water when Jokic rests. When great defenses take away the easy stuff, the Nuggets will be tempted to shove Hyland into crunch-time lineups alongside Jokic, Jamal Murray, and perhaps Porter.
The Nuggets don't need Hyland to be a good defender, or even an average one. Apex scorers will hunt him, and the Nuggets know how to rotate and cover for that. What they can't absorb is Hyland igniting fires all over the floor, against every rote action.
Hyland flubs the most basic pindown imaginable for Shaedon Sharpe. Screen navigation on and off the ball is a constant issue. If Hyland wants to play major postseason minutes, he has to clean this stuff up. He ranks dead last among all players in defensive estimated plus-minus and 445th in ESPN's adjusted defensive plus-minus.
9. Evan Mobley is here
You may not have noticed because his scoring hasn't jumped, but Mobley remains on course for all-around superstardom in time for Donovan Mitchell's prime years. Mobley is shooting 59% on 2s, up from 54% last season, and honing every subsection of his game on both ends.
He's a sneaky good passer already. When defenses trap Mitchell and Darius Garland on the pick-and-roll, they slip the ball to Mobley in open space -- confident he'll carry the possession to the correct end point. He's slinging assists in all directions, making reads at a speed that suggests he has the floor mapped before he even gets the ball. He is processing the game fast.
Some bigs who catch in space will pass only to teammates in their immediate line of sight. Mobley knows where everyone is, or where they should be, and he might spin around and whip the ball to a shooter all in one motion. He spots cutters along the baseline early:
Mobley is playing center there, but he can hit Jarrett Allen with alley-oops in that same situation in Cleveland's double-big alignments. (They can swap roles, with Allen lobbing to Mobley.) Cleveland's spacing can get clunky when Allen and Mobley share the floor, but the defense is fearsome enough to justify those hiccups. As the lone big, Mobley has more freedom and space within Cleveland's spread pick-and-roll sets.
Every core Cleveland lineup type -- both bigs, Allen only, Mobley only -- is comfortably outscoring opponents, a sign of overall team health. If defenses switch, Mobley can hurt guards with post-ups and burrowing isolations. Those plays don't always look pretty, but Mobley gets where he wants to go and operates with zero hesitation or doubt.
He's even running grab-and-go fast breaks, complete with Euro-step finishes and laser cross-court passes.
Mobley's defense is as advertised.
The only big weakness is his jumper, but Mobley is 21 and he's attacking that head-on.
10. When the rip-through fails
Chris Paul is a basketball genius -- one of the best two-way guards of all time. His snaking right elbow pull-up is iconic, and has made him one of the best crunch-time players ever (despite his central role in a historic postseason meltdown with the LA Clippers in Oklahoma City in 2014 that doubles as a massive "what if?" moment). He knows the rule book better than some referees. He once cajoled officials into calling a pivotal last-second technical because an opposing player had his jersey untucked.
But admit it: You kind of enjoy it when someone's too-cute cleverness backfires -- when the smartest kid in class boastfully blurts out the wrong answer.
A Paul team in the bonus is best viewed after the fact, with fast-forward optionality. It's rip-through time, baby! Is that a natural basketball motion? Does Paul use it outside the bonus? Is it fun to watch? No, no, and hell no.
But you can't blame Paul. He's a walking computer who has hit 87% of his career free throws; he knows a trip to the line is more efficient than any other outcome.
The Suns were reeling before a get-well win over the backup Clippers Thursday night. They've lost five of six, including a humiliation against Boston and back-to-back losses to the New Orleans Pelicans. It's tempting to write them out of the title picture. (They were not in my six-team inner circle of contenders before the season.) But they've been missing Jae Crowder, Cameron Johnson, Paul, and (for two recent games) Devin Booker, and at some point the talent drain becomes too much for the system to bear.
This swoon does not erase their blazing start.