In the first nine things I liked and disliked of 2024, we look at why Oklahoma City's title window is open thanks in part to co-star Jalen Williams, what Victor Wembanyama can already do playing at center and the area where the Golden State Warriors are missing the suspended Draymond Green the most.
Jump to Lowe's Things:
OKC's open title window | Wemby playing the 5!
Scoot showing signs | What the Suns can be
How real is Cam Thomas? | Where Golden State misses Draymond
New flop signal | Another step Stewart needs | Always helpful Batum
1. Jalen Williams, true co-star, has arrived, and so have the Oklahoma City Thunder
Young NBA teams are not supposed to do this -- ascend to the top of the league, beating juggernaut after juggernaut -- and they are certainly not supposed to do it in the style with which the Oklahoma City Thunder have announced themselves as a contender right freaking now.
This team finished below .500 last season! All five of its starters are 25 or younger; three of them are 21, 21 and 22. They have logged 75 combined playoff games. More than half of those -- 45 -- belong to Davis Bertans, who barely plays. Isaiah Joe has 11 more dating to his time with the Philadelphia 76ers; he accumulated 24 total minutes in those games.
And yet, the Thunder are 23-10 and have mauled opponents by 8.1 points per 100 possessions -- third best overall and No. 1 in the West, where the Thunder are within a game of the top seed.
The experience of watching these young Thunder is even more jarring than those numbers. They play with a poise and ruthlessness so beyond what is typical for their age that it is almost hard to process.
In tight games, the environment gets frenzied. Defenses change schemes and matchups by the minute. They rotate with ferocity, darting in and out of passing lanes. Arms are everywhere. Crowds are loud. It is hard to hear. You might have three reasonable options where you catch the ball, but they are all half-closed by the time you look up. They will be totally closed within one second. In those hothouse moments, championship teams need every player to pick the right option without hesitation.
To a remarkable level for a team so young, the Thunder thrive in those moments. They ping the right extra passes, even short-distance interior dishes you need to anticipate before even getting the ball. If the shot clock suggests it's time to shoot, whoever has the ball calmly goes into a go-to move. Cason Wallace, a 20-year-old rookie, will jab step and rise into an easy jumper at closing time.
The steadiness radiates from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, zooming past the All-NBA conversation and starting a new one about whether he is the best guard in the world. He has every move, and moves within those moves. He rarely turns the ball over, and that is a foundational characteristic of the entire team; only the Dallas Mavericks, helmed by another "best guard in the world" candidate in Luka Doncic, have a lower turnover rate.
Gilgeous-Alexander's trademark herky-jerky staccato confounds defenses, but part of his rise to superstardom is realizing when to dispense with all that and just go:
Unconventional guard-guard pick-and-rolls -- with Chet Holmgren pulling rim protectors outside -- are a bedrock of Oklahoma City's offense. One reason they work is that defenders never know how Gilgeous-Alexander will use those screens. Defenses worry about Gilgeous-Alexander knifing away from those picks instead of going around them. That tactic -- rejecting screens at turbo straight-line speed -- is a nasty counter to switching defenses. (Gilgeous-Alexander is a mean screener in his own right.)
Even if Gilgeous-Alexander barely ekes by his man, he contorts into reaching, angular scoop shots he can hit with either hand.
Holmgren is playing at an All-Star level. Teams fear defending him with centers, since many of them are too slow to contest Holmgren's pick-and-pop 3s. Opponents often guard him with wings and hide their centers on Josh Giddey -- leaving Giddey free to chuck 3s.
Giddey has hit 10 3s over his past three games; he's up to 37.5% from deep. Late in Oklahoma City's mega-win Tuesday, the Boston Celtics readjusted their matchups -- slotting a wing back onto Giddey and transferring Kristaps Porzingis onto Holmgren. It took the Thunder precisely zero possessions to pivot into a hail of Gilgeous-Alexander-Holmgren pick-and-pops. That is a veteran-level calculation.
Jalen Williams helped ice the game with a bullying drive and step-back over Jayson Tatum. Williams is a tank. He goes right through smaller guards and skinnier wings:
That step-back -- on both 2s and 3s -- is becoming a deadly go-to move:
Williams is 11-of-14 in the last five minutes of close games. The Thunder have the No. 2 crunch time offensive efficiency and No. 4 scoring margin. What is age, again?
Williams belongs on your medium-sized list of All-Star candidates. He's up to 18 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists on 53% shooting -- including 43.5% on 3s. The Gilgeous-Alexander-Williams-Holmgren trio already resembles a classic Big Three.
The Thunder have enough assets (along with Bertans' expiring contract) to chase any high-level reserve -- preferably a power forward or center who can fortify their shaky rebounding and pair with Holmgren in bigger lineups. Maybe they don't feel the need to deal. They are early in their journey. They have solid bench guys in Wallace, Kenrich Williams, Joe and Aaron Wiggins.
But you could always use one more guy, if only as insurance against an ill-timed injury. They should look around. Their title window is open, now.
2. What Victor Wembanyama can already do at center
I've given up tracking the San Antonio Spurs starting lineup beyond knowing Tre Jones can't crack out with a massive injury outbreak. Hey, Malaki Branham is a full-time starter! Cool! Wait, Keldon Johnson is the sixth man? Sure! Point Sochan begat Normal Forward Sochan who may one day beget Backup Center Sochan. And so it goes.
(Fun Fact: The Spurs -- owners of the league's worst net rating -- are somehow only minus-2 with Jones and Wembanyama on the floor.)
The Spurs have been bad in almost every alignment, but they've been (very) slightly less bad with Wembanyama at center -- the position he assumed once coach Gregg Popovich swapped Branham into the starting five for Zach Collins. Kudos to Wembanyama for being game to slide up a position so early -- even if everyone knew it would be his natural spot someday.
Playing center moves Wembanyama to the heart of the defense. And, yeah, he's already amazing at that:
Wembanyama makes that look easy. It's not. It's not far removed from Giannis Antetokounmpo's iconic retreating block on Deandre Ayton in crunch time of Game 4 in the 2021 NBA Finals. (I think I blacked out at some point in Thursday night's Antetokounmpo-Wembanyama Duel of the Implausibles. The last thing I remember is Antetokounmpo rising to try to dunk on Wembanyama in the final minute; I woke up in my backyard eight hours later.)
Here's what Scoot Henderson sees:
Wembanyama is everywhere. He's standing on the dotted line, one hand threatening the ball and the other in touch with Henderson's target -- Moses Brown.
Wembanyama spins, leaps and disrupts the pass before Brown has any chance at catching it.
Since the lineup shift, almost 45% of Wembanyama's shots have come in the restricted area -- up from 31% before, per Cleaning The Glass. He's diving to the rim more as San Antonio's main screen setter, but the effect goes beyond that. With the lane cleared, the Spurs' best passers can just throw the ball up to Wembanyama -- creating buckets and fouls from no real action:
Sliding to center unlocks Wembanyama's ahead-of-the-curve passing too. He can handle at the elbow, lift opposing shot-blockers away from the rim, and search out cutters.
Superstardom is inevitable.
3. Scoot Henderson, showing some of the right signs
Henderson's (very bad) shooting numbers from 2-point range haven't budged since his return from an ankle injury, but he's making an acceptable number of 3s and looks like a different player with the ball. He's more under control -- pinning defenders on his hip, changing pace, slowing down and waiting for the defense to expose something.
Since Henderson's Nov. 22 return, the Portland Trail Blazers have scored 1.22 points per possession on trips featuring a Henderson pick-and-roll -- 26th among 157 players who have run at least 50 such plays in that stretch, per Second Spectrum.
The Spurs did Henderson a favor in that game by chasing him over screens. Most opponents duck screens for Henderson, and he'll see that treatment until he beats it consistently. His pull-up jumper doesn't look broken, but he has hit only 34% on midrangers. Henderson can sometimes outrace defenders to the area under the screen -- and break down the defense from there. The Blazers jump-start him by setting screens lower on the floor. But that's tough sledding.
The Blazers face an interesting puzzle splitting minutes and touches among Henderson, Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe. The trio has logged just 41 minutes; Portland is a disastrous minus-27 over those minutes. They might not be able to tread water on defense.
Sharpe has blossomed hopping between on-ball and off-ball roles; he is ready for more. Simons is a great shooter who draws a ton of attention on the pick-and-roll. Henderson is (by far) the worst shooter among them, but he's the future.
4. What these Phoenix Suns can be
If you wanted to boil down the Suns' potential on offense to one possession, this could do:
The Suns have won four of five and are plus-31 in 65 minutes with Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant on the floor. As expected, their shot profile in those minutes is ultra-heavy on midrangers, light on shots at the rim and dangerously low on 3s. No matter how talented you are, it is very hard to win four playoff series if you are overreliant on long 2s.
But the Suns' approach on a lot of Booker-Beal-Durant possessions has been sound. The Suns are running when they can and leveraging the respective skill sets of their stars in smart ways to (sometimes) hunt 3s and paint attacks.
Beal leaning into his potential as a screen setter -- something he did more than ever last season -- is essential to the Suns hitting the right mix. Opponents will often stash their point guards on him, meaning any screening action between Beal and the Suns' other superstars could produce size mismatches for Booker and Durant.
The above screen from Beal gets Booker the switch Phoenix wants. Booker beats his man baseline and ignites a swing-swing sequence in which all four teammates touch the ball -- ending in a Jusuf Nurkic dunk. Every touch, pass and drive is aimed at the basket or the arc. Do more of that and the Suns will bend the shooting math to where they need it.
That includes free throws, and the Suns are generating heaps of those in the (limited) Big Three sample; their free throw rote in those 65 minutes would rank No. 4 among all teams. The next step is spicing things up with more off-ball actions.
The Suns are right at league average in points allowed per possession. If they score at a top-five level, average-ish defense is good enough to put a long postseason run in play.
5. How real is Cam Thomas?
In 2020-21, Collin Sexton averaged 24 points for the Cleveland Cavaliers on solid shooting, and few thought much of it. Scoring was up; 24 points wasn't what it used to be. Sexton was too small to play on the wing and did not have the vision of a point guard. The entire league pretty much shrugged at those 24 points and concluded, "Eh, he's probably a sixth man."
Sexton is starting now on a Utah Jazz team that is 9-3 in its past 12 games, but he has indeed mostly been a sixth man since that season -- a throw-in to the Donovan Mitchell trade.
Brooklyn Nets coach Jacque Vaughn decided last week that Cam Thomas' team-leading 22.4 points no longer merited a starting role. Opponents have destroyed the Nets by 9.2 points per 100 possessions with Thomas on the floor -- worst among Brooklyn regulars. The team broadcast caught Nic Claxton shouting at Thomas to pass the ball during one recent game.
Thomas is jacking 22.2 shots per 36 minutes; only Luka Doncic and Joel Embiid (about 23 each) average more. Twelve of the 13 players attempting 20-plus shots per 36 minutes dish at least 4.3 assists per game. Thomas averages 2.3. He is on pace to be the first player since Carmelo Anthony in 2012-13 -- and only the second since 1994 -- to attempt at least 21 shots per 36 minutes and record fewer than three dimes, according to Basketball-Reference.
Some of the passes Thomas makes are a beat late -- last resorts, tossed only once Thomas concludes he can't find a shot. The defense is ready.
Thomas is taller, longer and bulkier than Sexton; he should be able to contribute more on defense. He has some good on-ball reps and a nose for steals, but Thomas' off-ball defense is a train wreck.
He is an addicted ball watcher and loses touch with shooters.
Thomas fulfills his first responsibility by crashing inside as a help defender. But he lingers too long, ends up in no-man's land and stares at the ball even as it is halfway back to his man.
If Isaiah Hartenstein makes a tough hook there, you tip your cap. Swarming Hartenstein from the near corner is maybe the worst possible decision. Thomas does not box out or get rebounds, either.
And yet, there is a player in here somewhere who could log real minutes -- yes, probably as a bench scorer -- for a good team. Thomas is a legitimately outrageous shot-maker from every level whose percentages would go up if he bagged two or three of his most audacious attempts. He has the size and handle to get to the line a fair amount.
How long will it take for Thomas to find the right balance? How many teams will he have cycled through?
The Nets loom as a trade deadline wild card. They are 3-11 in their past 14 games, at risk of falling below the play-in. They're mediocre, stylistically vanilla -- without much variety or physicality.
They have two veteran wings -- Royce O'Neale and Dorian Finney-Smith -- contenders might covet, and they could trade one or both without handicapping their current team much. (They owe their first-round pick to the Houston Rockets -- thanks, James Harden! -- so they have no incentive to tank.)
They also own a bundle of extra picks from other teams -- ammunition with which to deal. They could trade in both directions.
6. Golden State's transition defense
It feels premature to say the Warriors are evolving past Draymond Green, but they are formulating an identity apart from him -- one that will begin to set in the longer Green is away during his indefinite suspension.
They are 6-5 since Green's last game. They have scored 121.4 points per 100 possessions in that stretch -- better than the Celtics' second-ranked offense. Their pace has slowed and their turnover rate has dropped to a manageable place -- turns toward caution you might expect without Green's rampaging transition attacks and sometimes high-risk pass-and-cut game. Jonathan Kuminga is playing the best ball of his career -- more patient and controlled in his assaults on the rim.
But their defense has suffered. The Warriors have yielded a fat 120.8 points per 100 possessions since Green's suspension. Golden State's defense on transition chances after live rebounds has been bad all season, but it has cratered without Green; they are 26th in points allowed per possession in such scenarios since the start of Green's suspension, per Cleaning The Glass.
Green's absence isn't the sole reason, but he covers up a lot. He is one of the all-time great backpedaling defenders. Almost no one in history has been better as the last man standing in 1-on-2 situations -- both in transition and playing the pick-and-roll. From positions of weakness, Green inflicts damage. He is fast, with long arms, preternatural instincts and airtight rim protection techniques.
Green talks, constantly, and breakdowns like this happen when your quarterback is gone -- and when coaches have to try new, jumbled lineups:
The Warriors have placed a renewed emphasis on crashing the offensive glass; they are fourth in offensive rebounding rate. It might be a net-neutral anyway, because all that crashing -- from four or even five players -- leaves Golden State vulnerable in transition:
All five Warriors are below the foul line when Chris Paul's shot hits the rim. Only urgent hustle from Gary Payton II and Brandin Podziemski prevents a run-out layup. The Warriors collective first step back on defense is often too slow, with too many players standing flat-footed in the netherworld -- not crashing, but also not rushing back.
Meanwhile, Green's return and future looms as one of the biggest stories over the rest of the season.
7. The new flop signal
Props to Monty McCutchen, the NBA's senior vice president of referee development and training, for choosing a hand signal -- one arm extended from the shoulder, palm up -- that is both broadly theatrical and fun to do. When an entire bench stands and performs it in unison, it becomes a form of ritualistic taunting -- suitably humiliating for the accused flopper.
8. Another step Isaiah Stewart needs to make
Thank the basketball gods, Detroit Pistons coach Monty Williams has shifted away from dreadful double-center lineups -- starting Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, two real live forwards and the team's second-best prospect in Jalen Duren. That new starting five lineup at least makes conceptual sense. (Can we get more Ausar Thompson minutes?)
The move shunted Stewart to the bench, but that's where he was bound to end up as a third big man who can make 3s and toggle between switching and more conservative defensive schemes.
Regardless of role, a critical next step for Stewart is getting more comfortable posting up mismatches. He got plenty of chances as the nominal power forward in Detroit's double-big groups; most went like this:
Stewart gets traction with his base, but almost zero lift into that flailing hook.
Detroit has scored 0.55 points per possession directly out of Stewart's post-ups -- last among 60 players with at least 20 post touches, per Second Spectrum. Stewart has the second-worst turnover rate in that sample, and his cough-ups run the gamut: 3-second violations, traveling calls, knockaways, push-offs.
Detroit in July signed Stewart to a four-year, $60 million extension that kicks in next season. (The last year is a team option.) That's the new going rate for reliable third bigs. Some contenders have kicked the trade tires on Stewart, league sources said. Keep an eye on his post play.
9. Nicolas Batum, always helpful
Even in his twilight, Batum remains a perfect fifth option around high-usage stars -- guys such as Joel Embiid (No. 1 in usage rate; he scored 30 points while you read this sentence) and Tyrese Maxey.
The Sixers can stick Batum on just about anyone, including primary ball handlers. He is always doing something to breathe oxygen into the offense -- flare screens, extra passes, little cuts that warp the defense and unlock shots for teammates. Batum cuts for teammates more than he cuts for himself. He has a knack for tracing rebounds; if you don't box him out, he'll slither inside and tip the ball to shooters:
He's shooting 49% on 3s as a Sixer. And just when you pigeonhole Batum as a guy who only tries wide-open looks, he'll surprise you with something a little chancier. He is a master at this particular triple:
Batum knows the Chicago Bulls will switch that pitch play, so he stops short of Maxey and rises up in that space that opens with the switch in motion. His release is quick when he needs it to be.
The Sixers may make a trade that bumps Batum from the starting lineup, but he'll stick as a helpful backup -- and someone the Sixers will feel comfortable playing in crunch time.