As NBA teams prepare for the Feb. 8 trade deadline, let's consider what the league's best teams should be seeking in deals.
Determining which teams are contenders is tricky in a season where nine teams are on track to win at least 48 games. It would be the most teams in that category since 2019-20, and that group doesn't include three of the preseason favorites in the West -- the Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns, all languishing in play-in tournament range or worse.
For now, we'll use the current title odds at ESPN BET, which have nine teams at +2000 (20-to-1) or better to win the title. That group includes the surprise teams atop the Western Conference ahead of the defending champion Denver Nuggets, the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Oklahoma City Thunder, but also the Lakers and the Suns by virtue of the likelihood they'll act like contenders in pursuit of a deep playoff run with veteran rosters.
Let's go team by team through this group to see what weaknesses have been apparent from the first half of the regular season and how that could influence their approach to the deadline.
Boston Celtics (+300): One more rotation player, maybe?
The title favorites have the NBA's strongest rotation through six players, and coach Joe Mazzulla's next two options -- Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard -- both rank among the NBA's top 100 players in my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric this season. What do you get the team that has everything? Perhaps one more option. If one of Boston's frontcourt players misses time in the playoffs, there's a drop to Luke Kornet and Oshae Brissett, neither of whom has ever logged regular postseason minutes. But the Celtics are the favorites precisely because they have so few needs.
Denver Nuggets (+425): A reliable reserve wing
The conventional answer here is a backup to Nikola Jokic, given the Nuggets are again badly losing the minutes Jokic sits (minus-7.6 points per 100 possessions according to NBA Advanced Stats). Zeke Nnaji quickly lost his rotation spot behind Jokic after signing a preseason extension, but Peyton Watson has stepped into the Jeff Green role well enough that Denver may not need to play another traditional center in the playoffs. Going small, though, could expose the Nuggets' questionable wing depth.
Rookie Julian Strawther has slumped after a solid start, and journeyman Justin Holiday hasn't been good enough to unseat the younger options. Christian Braun also hasn't taken the step forward Denver hoped after his strong playoff run. Despite shooting 38% from 3, Braun has been less efficient as a scorer because his 2-point accuracy has tumbled. Frankly, what the Nuggets need is Bruce Brown, whose return in unrestricted free agency was priced out of their range. Denver will have a hard time making a trade for a player making appreciably more than the minimum because nearly all the team's tradeable salary is tied up in the starting five and sixth man Reggie Jackson.
LA Clippers (+900): A PF with size
As unquestionably positive as the Clippers' deal for James Harden has been, it did leave them a bit lacking in frontcourt size at power forward. Kawhi Leonard (6-foot-7) is sure to continue starting at the position, but Ty Lue's options behind Leonard are more naturally wings, with the possible exception of rookie Kobe Brown (6-7, 250 pounds).
When the Clippers made that trade, they were presumably hoping P.J. Tucker could be that player, given how much bigger than his listed 6-5 (and 245 pounds) he plays. But Tucker quickly fell out of the rotation and hasn't seen action since Nov. 27. One possibility that would help the Clippers maintain their floor spacing: flipping Tucker and one or two of the team's limited second-round picks for 6-9 Toronto Raptors forward Chris Boucher.
Los Angeles Lakers (+1600): More two-way contributors
The Lakers' frequent lineup changes are much more a symptom of their roster issues than the cause. The fundamental problem remains the same as it has been since at least the Russell Westbrook trade: The Lakers don't have enough players who are at least average at both ends of the court. This forces Darvin Ham to toggle between favoring offense or defense to try to find balance.
Worse yet, many of the rotation players simply haven't been good enough at either end. Among teams in the top 10 in either conference, only the Dallas Mavericks have given more minutes to players rated below replacement level by my metric. Where the Mavericks' below-replacement players are underrated by box score stats that don't adequately capture individual defense, the same can't be said for the Lakers.
As much as Kyrie Irving might have helped, the Lakers really need another trade like last year's deadline deal that yields multiple contributors now that Malik Beasley is in Milwaukee and Jarred Vanderbilt has struggled badly this season.
Milwaukee Bucks (+475): A wing stopper
We knew the Bucks were sacrificing perimeter defense when they dealt Jrue Holiday to add Damian Lillard, but to be 19th in defensive rating at midseason with frontcourt anchors Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez healthy is surprising. The rank comes despite opponents shooting 34% from 3, the second-lowest mark in the league. Meanwhile, the Bucks are 19th in Second Spectrum's quantified shot quality metric, which considers the location and type of attempt as well distance to nearby defenders. Last season they ranked third.
Malik Beasley has accepted the challenge as Milwaukee's top wing defender, but at 6-4 he's undersized for the role and underqualified in terms of defensive pedigree. The bigger problem is that second-year wing MarJon Beauchamp -- the Bucks' best bet for a stopper who can also space the floor -- has fallen out of the rotation even before Jae Crowder returns from injury. Unless the team is also willing to part with Beauchamp or rookie Andre Jackson Jr., Milwaukee has little to offer in trade, meaning this problem might have to be solved in-house.
Minnesota Timberwolves (+2000): 3-point volume
It's testament to how well Minnesota did by adding Mike Conley at last year's trade deadline that the Timberwolves are contenders at this point in the season and that this question is so hard to answer. Minnesota's rotation fits together cohesively, though the remaining weakness is limited floor spacing. The Timberwolves' highest-volume 3-point shooter, Naz Reid, ranks 65th in attempts per 36 minutes (7.6) among players who have played at least 250 minutes.
Minnesota has struggled with versatile Kyle Anderson (1.1 3-point attempts per 36 minutes) on the court in particular and might do well to flip him -- in the final season of his contract -- for a player of similar overall ability but better shooting. Would the San Antonio Spurs consider bringing back Anderson in a deal built around Doug McDermott (8.7 3PA per 36)?
Oklahoma City Thunder (+1800): Defensive rebounding
The Thunder have been good enough this season -- boasting the NBA's second-best point differential at plus-8.2 per game -- that they can legitimately think about loading up for the playoffs at the deadline despite having one of the league's youngest rosters. With seven strong rotation players, Oklahoma City would be looking to upgrade a backup spot in the frontcourt, specifically with the aim of improving the NBA's third-lowest defensive rebound percentage.
Finding the right fit for that spot is tricky, but I'd call the Chicago Bulls about Andre Drummond, who is quietly playing well as Nikola Vucevic's backup. Drummond's prodigious rebounding numbers haven't always translated into team success on the defensive glass, but he'd undoubtedly help the Thunder in a limited role.
Philadelphia 76ers (+1200): Perimeter size
As well as the Harden deal has worked for the Clippers, it has set up the Sixers nicely too. Philadelphia boasts the NBA's third-best point differential with the flexibility to create cap space next summer and a rotation deepened by the players added in exchange for Harden. The 76ers can afford to deal from a position of strength rather than desperation.
If we're forced to make a move, Philadelphia's guard rotation of three players listed at 6-2 (budding star Tyrese Maxey, ace defender De'Anthony Melton and veteran backup Patrick Beverley) could prove on the small side come the postseason. Boston's backcourt in particular has the size to cause problems against the Sixers, who could target a bigger option such as 6-6 Alec Burks of the Detroit Pistons, who was previously acquired by Philadelphia at the 2020 deadline.
Phoenix Suns (+1200): Perimeter defense
The glaring missing piece in Phoenix is a traditional point guard, with Devin Booker and Bradley Beal sharing those duties since Beal has gotten healthy. I'm not sure, however, that's the right direction for the Suns, who won't necessarily play a point guard late in games anyway. I'd focus on the 3-and-D spot that Phoenix hasn't gotten consistent play at this season from Keita Bates-Diop, Nassir Little or Josh Okogie.
Okogie has seen the most consistent action, but after hitting 33.5% beyond the arc last season, he has slumped to 23% in 2023-24. Teams will gladly double Phoenix's stars using Okogie's man in the postseason. Perhaps the Suns could solve both needs at the same time. Delon Wright of the Washington Wizards is a point guard with the size to defend multiple spots at 6-5. He's also a 36% 3-point shooter this season and could be gettable with the second-round picks that are all Phoenix has to offer.
Other possible contenders
The most notable team missing from this list is the Warriors, whose title odds have slid to +5000 in part because Golden State wouldn't make the play-in tournament if the season ended today. I'm no longer sure that a win-now trade makes sense for the Warriors because Stephen Curry isn't playing at the superstar level he did when Golden State won the 2022 title.
For the Miami Heat, who reached the Finals a year ago but have +3000 odds, the biggest need is a superstar talent. Any trade that takes the Heat away from that goal would be shortsighted. The same is true to a degree for the New York Knicks (+4000), who already made their big in-season deal for OG Anunoby last month. The surplus of draft picks could allow the Knicks to swing another smaller move like last year's acquisition of Josh Hart, however.