It's officially NFL mock draft season as we look toward 2021. Let's kick it off with my preliminary projections for the first round of the 2021 NFL draft, starting with the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 1.
This is going to be one of the most interesting drafts since I started covering them more than 40 years ago. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought extraordinary changes to the pre-draft process. There's no NFL combine. Pro days will be limited to teams. Last week's Senior Bowl was the only event where coaches, scouts and front-office execs were able to meet with prospects -- through plexiglass.
A year ago, all the talk was about Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow and his rise to the top. There ended up being little drama around the Cincinnati Bengals' pick at No. 1. This year? Well, let's just say the draft starts with the New York Jets at No. 2. There is going to be a lot of drama for the next three months until Round 1 begins April 29.
Let's get into the picks. The draft order for picks 1-30 is set, and we're using ESPN's Football Power Index to project pick Nos. 31 and 32. (Note: This mock draft posted on Jan. 26.)
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Let's kick off Urban Meyer's rebuild in Jacksonville with a franchise quarterback. Lawrence is one of the best quarterback prospects I've studied over the past decade, and he has all the makings of a superstar, from arm talent to size to the ability to process at the position. And we know Meyer likes him from his comments in 2019. Make no mistake, though; this is not going to be a quick fix. The Jaguars were 1-15 for a reason. They have some talent to build around on offense, with wide receivers Laviska Shenault Jr. and DJ Chark Jr. and running back James Robinson, but they need to add protection for Lawrence on the offensive line. Will free-agent left tackle Cam Robinson be back? It's no sure thing. The good news for Meyer and new general manager Trent Baalke is that they have another first-round pick (No. 25) and an extra second-round pick from the Yannick Ngakoue trade with the Vikings.
2. New York Jets
DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
This is where the intrigue in the draft begins. Will the Jets stick with quarterback Sam Darnold for another year, or will they take Zach Wilson or Justin Fields? (Or maybe even trade for Deshaun Watson?) The good news for general manager Joe Douglas and new coach Robert Saleh is that they have three months to figure it out. This is a huge decision, and Douglas and Saleh have to be 100% sure that Wilson or Fields is an upgrade over Darnold. My feeling right now is that yes, Darnold's stats are ugly, but he's only 23 and he has had no offensive talent around him for three years. Do the Jets really want to move on from him and watch him thrive elsewhere? That's why they could give him a one-year audition under Saleh, pick the Heisman Trophy winner at No. 2, and give Darnold one more shot to put all of his talent together. Smith is the true No. 1 target Darnold hasn't had.
3. Miami Dolphins (from HOU)
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Tua Tagovailoa was just OK in nine starts as a rookie, but he needs some help. I like DeVante Parker, but he's not a No. 1 wide receiver. Chase can be. Because Chase opted out of the 2020 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic, I think some people are forgetting how good he was in 2019, when he averaged 21.2 yards per catch and had 20 touchdowns for the national champs. Just watch Chase's athleticism and concentration on this catch. Tagovailoa won't average just 6.3 yards per attempt with the 2019 Biletnikoff Award winner on the field.
4. Atlanta Falcons
Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
It's time for the Falcons to think long term on offense under new general manager Terry Fontenot and coach Arthur Smith. Quarterback Matt Ryan turns 36 this summer. Wide receiver Julio Jones will be 32 next month. Center Alex Mack is 35 and a free agent. They can build around Wilson, who had a phenomenal season for the Cougars, throwing 33 touchdown passes and only three picks, and give him at least a year to learn from Ryan and adjust to the NFL. I thought about Justin Fields here, too, but I'm giving a slight edge to Wilson for now. If Atlanta doesn't go with a quarterback, I'd expect a defender to be the target.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
This is all about protecting quarterback Joe Burrow, who will spend the offseason recovering from the torn left ACL and MCL he suffered in November. Burrow started 10 games, but it was clear that he wasn't comfortable behind a mediocre offensive line. The Bengals can take a step toward improvement by picking Sewell, an opt-out who was the 2019 Outland Trophy winner. He's the clear top offensive tackle in this class. Sewell could stay at left tackle while 2019 first-rounder Jonah Williams moves to the right side or to guard. I have compared Sewell to Hall of Famer Anthony Munoz, and Cincinnati should be thrilled to get another foundational player.
6. Philadelphia Eagles
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
The Eagles had a disastrous 4-11-1 season, with quarterback Carson Wentz regressing and getting benched for rookie second-rounder Jalen Hurts. And yes, Wentz was not very good, but his receivers didn't exactly give him much help. The Eagles got only 20 total catches from veterans Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson due to injuries, and 2019 second-round pick J.J. Arcega-Whiteside barely got on the field. So even though Philadelphia drafted Jalen Reagor in Round 1 a year ago, I still see this as a hole in the offense. Waddle, one of the fastest prospects in this draft, could be the go-to target in new coach Nick Sirianni's offense. He was one of college football's most electric receivers over the past three seasons, even if he was overshadowed at times by teammates Henry Ruggs III, Jerry Jeudy and DeVonta Smith. His ceiling at the next level is as a No. 1 pass-catcher.
7. Detroit Lions
Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Things change quickly in the NFL. Before the news that the Lions were going to trade quarterback Matthew Stafford this offseason, I would have said that they should keep Stafford and try to help him with a wide receiver in this draft. Alabama's Jaylen Waddle would have fit here. But instead it appears that new general manager Brad Holmes and coach Dan Campbell will go all-in on a rebuild, and so Fields could be the face of it. He had an up-and-down season, but we saw the flashes of his talent, particularly in his six-touchdown performance against Clemson in the College Football Playoff semifinal. Fields has superstar potential, but he'll need help around him. Detroit will need to figure out what it's doing with free-agent wideouts Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. and make sure Fields has a chance to succeed in Year 1. (Update: Stafford is being traded to the Rams, with Jared Goff coming back to Detroit, but this deal shouldn't change the Lions' thinking in this draft. Goff is not likely to be the long-term answer.)
8. Carolina Panthers
Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
If you're surprised that I'm thinking quarterback here, don't be. Teddy Bridgewater could be the starter again for the Panthers in 2021, but his contract shows they're not committed to him long term. Coach Matt Rhule could go after an intriguing signal-caller in Lance, who played only one game last season. With only 17 career starts -- none against an FBS opponent -- he is going to be a wild card in this draft. His 2019 season was just so, so impressive, though, and I think a team could fall in love with him in this range. If Carolina decides against drafting a quarterback in Round 1, Florida tight end Kyle Pitts would be another option.
9. Denver Broncos
Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
Is pass-rusher Von Miller going to return to the Broncos? What about free-agent safety Justin Simmons? This defense could look very different in Year 3 under Vic Fangio. I thought about a cornerback here, but I see linebacker as the bigger position to upgrade, and Parsons could play inside or outside. I see him more as an inside linebacker for a 3-4 defense, but his versatility would be a fit for any type of defense. Parsons, who opted out of the 2020 season, was a force at Penn State in 2019, with 109 tackles, five sacks and four forced fumbles. He has some upside as a pass-rusher.
10. Dallas Cowboys
Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
Heading into the 2020 season, the Cowboys' offensive line looked solid on paper, and that was after center Travis Frederick retired in March. But then injuries hit: Right tackle La'el Collins missed every game; left tackle Tyron Smith played just two; and guard Zack Martin missed six. And what you saw was a poor Cowboys offense, even before quarterback Dak Prescott was lost for the season with an ankle injury. That's why I think Slater fits in Dallas, where he could play either tackle spot or move inside to guard. Todd McShay thinks Slater could excel at center, too. He was another prospect who opted out, but he didn't allow a single sack playing left tackle in 2019. This is a spot to watch for Patrick Surtain II as well because Chidobe Awuzie could leave in free agency.
11. New York Giants
Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
Quarterback Daniel Jones cut down on his turnovers and showed some improvement in Year 2, but he still averaged only 6.6 yards per attempt. Even when he gets time to throw in the pocket, he doesn't have a consistent downfield threat (though Darius Slayton was a nice fifth-round find in 2019). At 6-foot-6, Pitts has the size/speed traits to line up out wide, in the slot or next to an offensive tackle. And he showed off his ability after the catch by averaging 17.9 yards per reception with 12 touchdowns. Pitts is not a traditional tight end, but he's a skilled offensive threat. And with Evan Engram on the roster, too, the Giants would have two of the most athletic -- and versatile -- tight ends in football.
12. San Francisco 49ers
Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
The 49ers will likely undergo big changes on defense this offseason, with defensive coordinator Robert Saleh gone and cornerbacks Richard Sherman, Ahkello Witherspoon and Jason Verrett all unrestricted free agents. That's why it makes sense to target a corner early. Surtain, my top-ranked corner, could be a starter on Day 1. He had 27 pass breakups and four interceptions over three seasons at Bama. At 6-2, Surtain has the size and speed to play on an island and lock down wideouts. Depending on whether San Francisco can bring back free-agent left tackle Trent Williams, offensive line could also be a position to target.
13. Los Angeles Chargers
Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
With four straight wins to end the season, the Chargers likely moved themselves out of the Penei Sewell sweepstakes, but Darrisaw is a great consolation prize. He had a phenomenal 2020 season and could be quarterback Justin Herbert's long-term blindside protector. Offensive line is one of L.A.'s top needs of the offseason, and it could add to the position in free agency and in the draft. New coach Brandon Staley will get back safety Derwin James from injury, but his defensive line needs a boost, too. Keep an eye on risers between now and April.
14. Minnesota Vikings
Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT/G, USC
Speaking of rising prospects, Vera-Tucker has scouts around the league buzzing after a tremendous season. He moved from guard to left tackle and dominated for the Trojans. At 6-4, 315 pounds, he could play either position at the next level. The Vikings must solidify their offensive line around Kirk Cousins, even after spending second-round picks on Ezra Cleveland (2020) and Brian O'Neill (2018) in recent years, and Vera-Tucker could be the long-term answer on the left side of the line. Cousins plays best when his running game is humming, and Vera-Tucker is a great run-blocker.
15. New England Patriots
Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Like McShay, I'm thinking quarterback for the Patriots. They don't pick this high often. Why not go and get your guy and build around him? Now, that changes if Bill Belichick & Co. can make a deal to get a veteran quarterback on the trade market or if Jimmy Garoppolo gets cut by the 49ers. But with Cam Newton unlikely to return to New England, Jones could become a signal-caller to groom for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Jones can make every throw at every level of the field, and he's extremely accurate. Plus, we know that Belichick has drafted plenty of Alabama stars and trusts Nick Saban. Jones will be at the Senior Bowl this week, and I'm expecting him to impress. And yes, if you're keeping count, this makes five quarterbacks in the top 15 picks.
16. Arizona Cardinals
Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
Arizona could have openings at both corner spots this offseason, with veterans Patrick Peterson and Dre Kirkpatrick both on the free-agent market. If the Cardinals decide to move on from the over-30 corners, this is the best place to find a new starter. One of the first prospects to opt out of the season, 6-2 Farley looked like a star on the 2019 tape, but he is still raw. He has played defensive back only since 2018. I could also see the Cardinals keeping an eye on the wide receivers in this class; Christian Kirk has not been consistent enough to show that he can be their No. 2 wideout alongside DeAndre Hopkins.
17. Las Vegas Raiders
Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami (Fla.)
This is a strange draft in that there are no dominant pass-rushers. Phillips could be the top edge prospect, and I have only a mid-first-round grade on him. But he had a dominant season for the Hurricanes after transferring from UCLA, where he had ended his career because of concussion issues. The former five-star prospect missed the 2019 season and then ended up at Miami, where he had 5.5 sacks in his final three games. Depending on his medical checks, Phillips could rise even higher. The Raiders, meanwhile, had one of the NFL's worst pass rushes again (21 sacks, fourth worst) and got only two sacks from 2019 No. 4 pick Clelin Ferrell.
18. Miami Dolphins
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
If Miami adds a wide receiver with the No. 3 pick, this selection is likely going toward a defense that took a big step forward in 2020, thanks in large part to stellar corner play from Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. So let's fortify the middle of the Miami D, where Elandon Roberts and Kamu Grugier-Hill are free agents. Owusu-Koramoah, who had 140 tackles and five forced fumbles over the past two seasons, could step right in and play one of the inside linebacker spots. He also has some pass-rush upside, as he had 8.5 sacks in 2019. The Dolphins are clearly ascending, and Owusu-Koramoah is a great fit as a speedy, sideline-to-sideline tackler.
19. Washington Football Team
Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
I would have liked to get a quarterback for Washington, but my top five are all off the board. Ron Rivera & Co. have to figure out the position, and maybe the answer is a veteran in free agency. Instead let's focus on a wide receiver group that has only Terry McLaurin as a plus starter. Kyle Pitts got a lot of the attention from people watching the Gators this season, but Toney opened the eyes of NFL scouts. He was a Swiss Army knife, catching 70 passes with 10 scores, adding a touchdown as a runner and one more on a punt return. Think of a Tyreek Hill-type playmaker who can beat teams in a variety of ways. We've already seen Washington get creative with Antonio Gibson, and it should find ways to get the ball in Toney's hands.
20. Chicago Bears
Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
This is a really strong offensive tackle class, and we could see a run on them in the 20s. Jenkins started at both right tackle and left tackle for the Cowboys, and he was having a stellar season before he opted out in late November. At 6-6, 310 pounds, he has long arms and there are no questions about his size to play tackle. In Chicago, he could start immediately on the right side, where Germain Ifedi is a free agent, and be the long-term replacement to Charles Leno at left tackle. The Bears could also be in the market for a top receiver with Allen Robinson headed to free agency.
21. Indianapolis Colts
Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
With Philip Rivers retired and Jacoby Brissett a free agent, we know the Colts will be in the quarterback market this offseason. If they wait until the draft to make their move, they might have to trade up to get their guy. I don't see a fit here. Paye is a tough evaluation. He finished his four-year college career with 11.5 sacks and had only two last season. But we know that the draft is all about size/athleticism traits, even when the production doesn't match. And that's 6-4, 270-pound Paye, who is a gifted athlete. This is an upside pick, and the Colts have a hole at defensive end with Justin Houston hitting free agency.
22. Tennessee Titans
Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami (FL)
This has to be an edge rusher, right? The Titans had a putrid pass rush last season, finishing with 19 total sacks, which was only two more than the last-ranked Bengals. They got very little from free-agent signing Jadeveon Clowney, and leading sacker Harold Landry finished with only 5.5. That's not good enough for a team that thinks it's a Super Bowl contender. Six-foot-7 Rousseau, another opt-out, had 15.5 sacks in a breakout 2019 season, but he doesn't have an elite first step and needs to add some moves to his repertoire. With only one year of production and no live football in a year, he's another wild card in his class. But again, teams love pass-rushers, so he could be in demand.
23. New York Jets (from SEA)
Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
The Jets have needs all over. After I gave them wideout DeVonta Smith at No. 2, they really have to go with the best available prospect here to build up their talent base. I think they will likely bring back free-agent safety Marcus Maye, but we know Robert Saleh's defense is built around big defensive backs. Six-foot-1 Horn -- yes, his father is former NFL wide receiver Joe Horn -- is a fit. He had two interceptions (both in the win over Auburn) in seven games last season before he opted out, but he has great instincts in coverage and should pick off more passes in the NFL. This is also a spot to watch for edge rushers -- New York needs to improve there.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers
Zaven Collins, OLB/DE, Tulsa
Pittsburgh lost five of its last six games after starting 11-0, and holes were exposed, particularly after edge rusher Bud Dupree tore his ACL in early December. And with Dupree now a free agent, this would be a pick to grab a replacement. Collins is a do-everything linebacker who had four sacks, four interceptions (two for TDs) and two forced fumbles on the way to winning the Nagurski Award last season. At 6-4, 260 pounds, he could slot into Dupree's position and excel at getting after quarterbacks or dropping into coverage to confuse offensive coordinators. Collins is a really intriguing chess piece for a smart defense. The Steelers could also think about offensive line with this pick.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR)
Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
I thought about a receiver or offensive lineman here to help Trevor Lawrence, but this defense is depleted, particularly along the defensive line and in the secondary. How can we get the Jags some help? K'Lavon Chaisson, a first-rounder last year, had only one sack and nine QB hits as a rookie. Taven Bryan, a first-rounder in 2018, has only 3.5 sacks in three seasons. Barmore really came on at the end of the season, with six sacks in his final six games. He was dominant in the two College Football Playoff wins. I love the fit in Jacksonville, where he can be a penetrating 3-technique.
26. Cleveland Browns
Aaron Robinson, DB, UCF
The Browns had major issues in their secondary last season, which started in training camp when rookie safety Grant Delpit tore his Achilles tendon and second-year corner Greedy Williams hurt his shoulder. Both second-rounders ended up missing the entire season. With Robinson, Cleveland could add a big, aggressive defensive back who can play multiple positions. The 6-1 Alabama transfer played corner and nickelback for the Knights, and I could see him playing some safety in the NFL. I moved him up my rankings after watching more tape of his last two seasons.
27. Baltimore Ravens
Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
The Ravens' passing attack did not take a step forward in Lamar Jackson's second full season as the starting quarterback. Marquise Brown was the only receiver who caught at least 35 passes, and even he was too inconsistent. Baltimore had the fewest passing attempts, passing yards and passing first downs in the league. Adding another top-tier wideout is how it can really take the offense to the next level. Marshall was coming on as LSU's top wideout this season, and he had 10 touchdowns in seven games before he opted out of the season in November. He has some quickness in a 6-3 frame.
28. New Orleans Saints
It's really hard to project what the Saints are going to do because their offseason is in flux. They don't have any salary-cap space to make moves. These are of some of their pending free agents: Marcus Williams, Trey Hendrickson, Jameis Winston, Jared Cook, Sheldon Rankins and P.J. Williams. And then there's the Drew Brees dilemma, as the 42-year-old quarterback could retire. Moehrig, the top safety in my rankings, would be the successor to 33-year-old Malcolm Jenkins. He had six interceptions over the past two seasons. Again, though, this pick is more about projecting for the Saints' current needs, which could be very different in April.
29. Green Bay Packers
Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
Did you watch the Packers' secondary get torched by the Bucs in the first half of the NFC Championship Game? 2017 second-round pick Kevin King, who is now a free agent, was picked on by Tom Brady. Green Bay has to find a consistent starter opposite Jaire Alexander. Campbell has the talent to be that guy, though he had an up-and-down career at Georgia. His issue? He was too inconsistent from snap to snap. But the former five-star prospect is a gifted athlete in a 6-2 frame, and this pick is all about projecting him to improve under NFL coaching. Based on talent alone, Campbell would be a top-15 pick, but his tape could see him drop to Round 2.
30. Buffalo Bills
Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Buffalo's running game was so ineffective this season that offensive coordinator Brian Daboll cooked up a few game plans that required very few runs. Josh Allen was the Bills' leading rusher in the postseason -- by 82 yards. They should upgrade with Harris, who had a dominant season for the Crimson Tide and could also help in the passing game. With rookie Zack Moss coming off an ankle injury and Devin Singletary not an every-down player, this is where the Bills can get better immediately in 2021. And we've seen rookies come in right away and make a big impact. Offensive line is a position to watch for Buffalo; I thought about Michigan offensive tackle Jalen Mayfield here.
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Joe Tryon, DE, Washington
Like the Saints, Tampa Bay has a few priority free agents on the defensive side of the ball, including Shaq Barrett, Ndamukong Suh and Lavonte David. Unlike the Saints, though, the Bucs have the cap space to bring them back if they want to. After general manager Jason Licht filled holes with his top two picks in last April's draft -- Tristan Wirfs and Antoine Winfield Jr. were instant impact players -- he can do that again with Tryon, who had eight sacks in 2019 but opted out of this past season. With Jason Pierre-Paul now 32, Tampa could use edge rushers. That's 6-5 Tryon. Iowa defensive tackle Daviyon Nixon is another option -- he could replace Suh.
(Note: This mock draft posted on Jan. 26 and used ESPN's FPI to project the order, which favored the Chiefs over the Bucs in Super Bowl LV.)
32. Kansas City Chiefs
Azeez Ojulari, OLB/DE, Georgia
Six sacks for Frank Clark. Three for Alex Okafor. One for Tanoh Kpassagnon. The Chiefs went 14-2 without much of a pass rush from the outside (Chris Jones is still a dominant interior rusher). Ojulari capped his Georgia career with three sacks in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl and had 8.5 on the season. He also forced four fumbles. At 6-3, 240 pounds, he might be a better fit for a 3-4 defense, but he can get after quarterbacks with the best of them in this class. And a smart defensive coordinator will move him around on defense and let him loose.