Super Bowl LVIII is behind us, and, to borrow a phrase from Bill Belichick, we're on to the offseason for all 32 NFL teams. If there's one thing that can offset the sadness of the 2023 season being over, it's a first-round mock draft for the 2024 NFL draft.
So here's my first set of predictions for Round 1, including landing spots for five quarterbacks. The draft order is now set, and while three picks have already been traded, I didn't project any additional ones just yet. Things will change over the next two months as we get closer to April 25, especially since prospects still have the combine, pro days and interviews. And let's remember that free agency hasn't taken place yet; that will impact the draft quite a bit.
Let's forecast how Day 1 of the 2024 draft could play out. (And check out our SportsCenter Special discussing the pick projections.)
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Yates' rankings | Miller's mock
1. Chicago Bears (via CAR)
Caleb Williams, QB, USC
The Bears' draft intentions will be much clearer once a decision is made on quarterback Justin Fields, as Chicago will surely be fielding calls to gauge the potential parameters of a trade for the 2021 first-rounder. If the Bears do opt to trade their current QB and reset the clock at the position, Williams fills their immediate need and presents an electric combination of accuracy and playmaking for new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron.
2. Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Daniels did as much as one could possibly do during the 2023 season to boost his draft stock, as he skyrocketed up boards on the heels of 40 touchdown passes, 4 interceptions and 1,230 rushing yards (not including sacks) on his way to the Heisman Trophy. He's the best dual-threat quarterback in this class and changes the math for a defense every time he steps on the field. In Washington, Daniels would have an exciting wide receiver unit and could help build stability under center for new coach Dan Quinn.
3. New England Patriots
Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
The 6-foot-4, 230-pound quarterback is still 21 years old and has the prototypical build for an NFL passer. Maye is a strike-thrower when targeting the middle of the field, but he also shows nifty pocket agility to extend plays and has 16 rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons. As the Patriots embark on a new era under Jerod Mayo, they could build the new offense around Maye. New England finished last season 30th in yards per attempt (6.1) and 31st in Total QBR (31.6).
4. Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Few pick projections are as straightforward as this one, as the receiver-needy Cardinals could land my top-ranked wideout in this class and one of the most highly regarded wideout prospects of the past handful of years. Arizona needs a WR from the start, but things are only magnified by Marquise Brown being a free agent. Harrison is a silky smooth 6-4 205-pounder who would make life much easier on quarterback Kyler Murray the second he arrives at the team facility. His prototypical size is paired with excellent route running and body control.
5. Los Angeles Chargers
Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
A compelling March is ahead for the Chargers, with important decisions to make on receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams; they each enter the final year of their respective deals in 2024 and had injury issues last season. But this pick is reflective of what I believe the roster will look like under new GM Joe Hortiz and coach Jim Harbaugh: full of tough, physical, relentless players like Alt, who masterfully turned into an outstanding left tackle at Notre Dame. I'd expect Alt to start his career with the Chargers at right tackle, taking over for Trey Pipkins III and forming a potential dominant duo with left tackle Rashawn Slater.
6. New York Giants
Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
The Giants can land the most explosive player in the draft with Nabers, the former LSU star who plays at a warp speed that no defender can match. This would provide a huge boost to a Giants offense that had the second-fewest passing yards in the NFL last season and just 44 passing plays of 20-plus yards (better than just six other teams in the league).
Nabers is a massive play waiting to happen, with his vertical speed to stretch the field on deep shots and with his run-after-catch ability. He averaged 120.7 yards per game last season and caught 14 TDs. Daniel Jones needs that kind of production outside.
7. Tennessee Titans
Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
The Titans have a clear and obvious need at wide receiver, and if the board plays out like this come April 25, I'd be floored if they pass on Odunze. The wideout hardly has a flaw in his game. He's a pristine route runner, incredible after the catch, terrific in contested catch situations and Mr. Reliable with his hands. Quarterback Will Levis would love this pick, as Odunze led the country in receiving last season (1,640 yards).
8. Atlanta Falcons
Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
The Falcons' pass rush improved in 2023 but still lacked a dominant pass-rusher, with Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree leading the team with only 6.5 sacks apiece; neither is signed for 2024. Atlanta managed just 42 sacks as a team in 2023, ranking 21st.
Turner finished his college career with 10 sacks and was named the SEC Defensive Player of the Year. New coach Raheem Morris worked wonders with an inexperienced Rams defense in 2023, but the personnel is in better shape in Atlanta right now, and Turner would provide a high-upside, versatile building block off the edge.
9. Chicago Bears
Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
The Bears -- who got a QB with their first pick here in Williams -- made a big splash in acquiring Montez Sweat at the deadline this past season, landing a legitimate defense-altering player. However, depth beyond Sweat still needs to be addressed, and Latu is perhaps the most talented pass-rusher in this entire class. While Latu might not have Turner's traits, he has a vast catalogue of pass-rush moves and impeccable technique. He has a chance to become an annual double-digit sack player after getting 23.5 over the past two seasons.
Latu did have a neck issue during his tenure at Washington that forced him to medically retire from football in 2019. He wound up transferring to UCLA and resuming his career, but each team will have its own assessment of that issue, and combine medicals will be important here. If the issue is not seen as a short- or long-term concern, Latu deserves to be in this range.
10. New York Jets
Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
The Jets will be on a mission all offseason to upgrade the offensive line ahead of Aaron Rodgers' return to action after a torn Achilles, with the two tackle positions in the spotlight. There is allure for the upside of a player like Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma) and the toughness of Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State), but Fashanu is ready to anchor the blind side right away for Rodgers and has the goods to become an outstanding pro. His tape was a little better in 2022 than 2023 from my view, but we're still talking about one of the most impressive prospects in the class. Fashanu allowed one sack over 21 career starts.
11. Minnesota Vikings
Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
Retaining Danielle Hunter -- soon to be a free agent -- would change the outlook on this pick, but losing Hunter, D.J. Wonnum and/or Marcus Davenport in free agency would leave Minnesota razor thin at pass-rusher. Verse is long, has great in-line power and shows a growing set of pass-rush moves to get home. After surprising many and returning to Florida State for the 2023 season, he helped catalyze what was on the short list for the best defense in college football last season, racking up nine sacks.
12. Denver Broncos
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
My expectation is Russell Wilson will not be a Bronco in 2024, and the reality of the situation is that Denver has no easy way to get out of the contract without absorbing massive salary cap implications. Combine that with a shallow free agent quarterback class and we're staring at the real possibility of Denver needing to draft a quarterback to be the starter (or develop Jarrett Stidham into that role).
While this slot is ahead of where McCarthy ranks on my board, this is a story as old as time: Quarterbacks almost always wind up going higher than expected in the draft. And Denver has just six total picks, the next of which comes in the third round, which limits its options. McCarthy is an accuracy merchant with very good mobility. Scouts believe he offers more as a thrower than we saw during his last season at Michigan, when the Wolverines leaned heavily on a dominant defense and run game.
J.J. McCarthy avoids the rush and picks up the first down with a 22-yard run.
13. Las Vegas Raiders
Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
Primary needs for the Raiders also include quarterback and offensive line, but four QBs are off the board, and the overall depth of the tackle class makes finding a second-round starter viable. Murphy fills a massive gap along the defensive front after an incredible 2023 season, too. He offers true difference-making play as a pocket compressor (he had 5.0 sacks this past season) and run defender. Few players in this class play full tilt to the extent Murphy does.
14. New Orleans Saints
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
The Saints might need to replace two offensive tackles this offseason, as longtime stalwart Ryan Ramczyk has dealt with a knee injury that could force him into retirement and Trevor Penning has struggled since being taken in the first round just two years ago. Guyton oozes upside with excellent quickness and the potential to anchor either tackle spot for a long time. He has allowed one sack over 29 career games (15 starts).
15. Indianapolis Colts
Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Indy went young at cornerback last season, and while the overall opponent passing numbers were fine, the Colts went a stretch during the middle of the season facing these starters in succession: PJ Walker, Derek Carr, Bryce Young, Mac Jones, Baker Mayfield, Will Levis, Jake Browning, Mitch Trubisky, Taylor Heinicke and Aidan O'Connell. They need to upgrade the cornerback spot.
Arnold is tough, instinctive and physical, and he has playmaker traits, picking off five passes in 2023.
16. Seattle Seahawks
Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
It doesn't sit right with me that Bowers (a top-10 prospect) would have to wait until No. 16 to hear his name called, but man do I love this pick for Seattle. The Seahawks have a pair of free agents at tight end in Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson, while Will Dissly carries a $10.1 million cap charge in 2024 that might need to be addressed. Bowers is a remarkable pass-catcher who chews up yards after the catch and has vacuum-like hands to snare any throw in his vicinity. Yes, defense needs to be a massive priority for Seattle all offseason, but Bowers would crush in this offense.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
Powers-Johnson was incredible for Oregon this past season and then went down to the Senior Bowl and looked like one of the best players on the field. Among the many traits that stand out about JPJ is that when he gets beat -- and that doesn't happen often -- he can recover quickly enough to keep his quarterback clean. He's the best center in the draft and addresses a big position of need in Jacksonville.
18. Cincinnati Bengals
Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
Incumbent starter Jonah Williams will hit free agency in a month, and it's no surprise the Bengals will continue to address the offensive line this offseason. If you want to get tougher and impose your will more in the run game -- and I think the Bengals could use more explosive runs -- Fuaga is the man for you. He's a tone-setter with overwhelming strength at the point of attack and enough suddenness to react in the passing game as a strongside protector for Joe Burrow.
19. Los Angeles Rams
Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Mitchell was a dominant player at Toledo, and he confirmed at the Senior Bowl what most in the scouting world had suspected: He can flat-out fly, has outstanding ball skills and is extremely disciplined in man-to-man coverage. The Rams are thin in the secondary, and veteran Ahkello Witherspoon -- who played a pivotal role this past season -- is scheduled to become a free agent. Mitchell could come to L.A. and immediately start breaking up passes, which he did 32 times over the past two seasons at Toledo.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
This one might be a surprise, as the Steelers have backed Kenny Pickett -- whom they took at No. 20 two years ago -- this offseason. But they also said they plan to add competition for him in the quarterback room. Quarterback picks in this range are often polarizing, but my fundamental mindset is the Steelers' ceiling with Pickett under center is too low for a franchise with a standard that is not simply making the playoffs but making deep runs. Pittsburgh has lost five straight playoff games.
Nix blends sharp accuracy with some razzle-dazzle (something he has refined during his college career after transferring from Auburn) and an ability to quickly scan the field to deliver the right read. He set the FBS single-season record for completion percentage in 2023 at 77.4% while throwing 45 touchdown passes to three interceptions.
21. Miami Dolphins
Troy Fautanu, G/OT, Washington
It's uncertain whether Miami will have Terron Armstead back in 2024 and beyond, but regardless, Fautanu is a logical target for the Dolphins. He was a dominant left tackle during his time at Washington but has positional flexibility to kick inside. Guard Robert Hunt is headed toward free agency, and Fautanu has elite footwork and plays with an unmistakable fire.
22. Philadelphia Eagles
Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
The Eagles surrendered the second-most passing yards in the NFL last season (4,296) and undoubtedly will work to add to their secondary this offseason, likely at cornerback and safety. Darius Slay is 33 years old, and James Bradberry will be 31 by next season.
Wiggins has good speed and excellent size for the position at 6-2. He plays with a tremendous confidence and has a short memory in coverage, two essential skills for any corner.
Omarion Hampton breaks loose for a 64-yard run, but Nate Wiggins chases him down and forces a fumble at the goal line.
23. Houston Texans (via CLE)
Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri
The Texans did an incredible job of extracting everything they could out of the secondary, and adding a few more players this offseason will prove instrumental. Rakestraw is one of my favorite guys to watch in this entire class, as he seems to find just as much joy in lining up man-to-man opposite a top wide receiver as he does delivering bone-crunching hits in run defense. Pairing him with Derek Stingley Jr. could give Houston a fearsome CB duo.
24. Dallas Cowboys
Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M
Inside linebacker is an area to address under new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer -- Leighton Vander Esch is entering the final year of his deal and suffered a serious neck injury in 2023 -- and Cooper is the best in this class. What makes him so unique are his exceptional movement skills and pass-rush upside. Cooper managed eight sacks last season, including three against Alabama in one of the best performances by a player all season. But Cooper also projects to have the range and instincts to be more than just a proactive linebacker making plays toward the line of scrimmage; he'll prove he can drop in coverage and carry tight ends as well.
25. Green Bay Packers
Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
There are a lot of reasons to like this pick for Green Bay. DeJean has terrific traits, is an adept man-to-man coverage player and has proved extremely versatile. The last part matters a lot here, as Green Bay's safety room has multiple key free agents this offseason (including Darnell Savage) and DeJean has the traits to play there if needed. Cornerback depth is also a need for the Packers, who would go back to the Iowa defensive well in the first round for the second straight year (Lukas Van Ness). The Packers managed seven interceptions in 2023 (31st), and DeJean has that many himself over the past two seasons.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Graham Barton, G/C, Duke
Barton's versatility makes him an appealing player to basically every team, as he began his college career as a center and finished it at left tackle, playing both spots at a high level. Many in the scouting world think he'll settle into a guard role with center flexibility, and this pick would follow a Tampa Bay trend. The Bucs like to draft mobile college tackles and kick them inside, with recent examples including Cody Mauch and Robert Hainsey.
27. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU)
JC Latham, OT, Alabama
With 2023 first-rounder Paris Johnson Jr. capable of moving over to left tackle (veteran D.J. Humphries is coming off of a late-season ACL tear), Latham could slide right into a right tackle role from Day 1. Latham has nuclear strength at the point of attack to make defenders think twice about getting in his path. This pick would set Murray up with a second franchise tackle -- and don't forget about the WR1 we got him in Harrison back at No. 4.
28. Buffalo Bills
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
No player scored more receiving touchdowns in 2023 than Thomas (17), and his deep speed and acceleration might be unparalleled in this class. The Bills have relied on Gabe Davis as a deep threat in recent seasons, but he is a free agent and has been an up-and-down contributor (nine games last season with two or fewer catches). Thomas would provide a vertical spark for Josh Allen and a Buffalo offense that did not produce a single play of 20-plus yards in its divisional round loss to Kansas City.
29. Detroit Lions
Darius Robinson, EDGE, Missouri
Here's one of my favorite player-team fits, as Robinson feels like the kind of brute-force player the Lions crave on their roster. After 8.5 sacks in 2023, he would give Detroit a big boost on the edge opposite Aidan Hutchinson and could feast on favorable matchups while teams allocate resources to Hutchinson on every snap. Moreover, he's a converted defensive tackle who can kick down inside and wreak havoc when lined up over guards or centers.
30. Baltimore Ravens
Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia
The Ravens did a remarkable job defensively last season with an injury-impacted cornerback room, but counting on repeating that effort would be a challenge. Lassiter is confident in man coverage and welcomes the challenge of sticking on opposing top-flight wideouts. Baltimore has several key free agents on defense this offseason, and turnover is to be expected. Lassiter, who broke up eight passes in 2023, could help.
31. San Francisco 49ers
Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Allowing pressure was an issue for the 49ers in their Super Bowl defeat, and it was a reminder of the need to add depth to the offensive line this offseason. San Francisco allowed pressure on 32.2% of dropbacks last season, 11th-highest in the NFL. Mims could be a potential immediate upgrade at right tackle as well as a plan for life after Trent Williams, who will be 36 in July.
Mims might need a little time to develop with roughly 800 college career snaps to his name -- the equivalent of about one season -- but with a massive frame, long wingspan and unfairly effortless movement skills, he is worth investing in and developing.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
The Chiefs' wide receiver issues are no mystery, and Mitchell would help the cause. The 6-4 196-pounder is silky smooth when running routes and has the frame and length to make his mark down the field and in the red zone. The Chiefs hit a home run with Rashee Rice in the second round last April, and this would provide them with another playmaker to build the passing game around. Mitchell caught 11 touchdowns last season, and with his 15.4 yards-per-catch average, he'd be great for Patrick Mahomes and the Super Bowl champs.