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senior NFL national reporter- Dan Graziano is a senior NFL national reporter for ESPN, covering the entire league and breaking news. Dan also contributes to Get Up, NFL Live, SportsCenter, ESPN Radio, Sunday NFL Countdown and Fantasy Football Now. He is a New Jersey native who joined ESPN in 2011, and he is also the author of two published novels. You can follow Dan on Twitter via @DanGrazianoESPN.
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senior NFL national reporter- ESPN staff writer
- Previously a college football reporter for CBSSports.com
- University of Florida graduate
The best part of the NFL combine is the stuff you don't see on TV. While some tune in to watch prospects for the 2020 draft weigh in and work out, those of us who cover the league year-round drop in on Indianapolis for the gossip. The scuttlebutt. The mining of sources for information about the league year to come.
The combine is basically an NFL convention, a concentration of coaches, executives, scouts and agents in the cozy, skyway-connected environs of downtown Indianapolis. If you do it the right way, you come out of the week better informed than when you arrived.
Of course, teams aren't allowed to talk to free agents or their agents until March 16, when the legal tampering period begins and teams and players can agree to deals but not sign them until 4 p.m. ET on March 18. But somehow, some stuff has a way of getting found out anyway in Indianapolis. It truly is a magical place.
We wanted to empty our notebooks and let you know a bunch of what we heard at this year's combine. Enjoy.
Jump to a big topic:
Dak Prescott | Drew Brees
QBs in 2020 draft | Franchise tags
Kirk Cousins | Baker Mayfield
Trade talk | CBA buzz
Tom Brady race wide open
The expectation is that Brady will seriously explore all options in free agency. There are plenty of people who'll tell you they're sure he's going back to New England, but those people don't offer too much explanation for why they think that. It just seems to make sense.
But there's also plenty of informed buzz about Brady landing elsewhere, and some of the more talked-about landing spots included the Chargers, Titans and Buccaneers. Miami weather makes the Dolphins a possibility for Tom and Gisele, though the Dolphins have kind of said they aren't a suitor. As one source said, it's concerning that a Brady deal with New England isn't done yet, and that could set the stage for mid-March fireworks.
One team exec said the Titans were the best on-field fit based on their play-action offense, bulldozer running back Derrick Henry and their athletic pass-catchers, particularly at tight end, a Brady necessity. But the Chargers have weapons and business needs; call it the TB12 ticket sales enhancement program.
Brady might not cost a fortune, either. Some teams are expecting $30 million per year max on a two-year or three-year deal at most. He is going on 43, after all. And we're told Patriots teammates are split on whether they feel he'll be back.
Ready for a wild audible? Two people close to Antonio Brown -- yes, that Antonio Brown -- told us Brady keeps in consistent contact with Brown and has told Brown he wants to play with him wherever Brady goes next.
According to one of Brown's attorneys, Brady has told Brown to keep mentally and physically strong so the two can reunite on the field at Brady's next stop. Anything concerning Brown should be taken with not a grain but a bucket of salt at this point, but it does seem as if Brady and Brown formed at least some level of connection in their incredibly brief time together in New England.
It wouldn't be a combine notebook without a little AB, who is working on settling his grievances with the Raiders and Patriots from last year's curtailed contracts.
Dak Prescott, Cowboys still in holding pattern
The Cowboys absolutely plan to use the franchise tag on Prescott if they can't get the quarterback signed before the March 12 deadline, but their preference is to get him signed to a long-term deal. If they tag him, they have until July 15 to sign him or else they have to wait until after the season.
There are several factors at work here, well beyond the simplistic "Why haven't they signed him yet?" debate. Dallas has made Prescott a significant offer that averages, sources say, about $33 million per year. But there's a lot we don't know about that offer, including how long the proposed deal is, how much is really guaranteed, how much pays out in the first three years, etc. Prescott is obviously looking for more than Dallas has offered, and has been just as content to wait this out as the team has.
One source suggested that Prescott might prefer to do a shorter-term deal than the traditional long Cowboys deal that allows them to keep restructuring for cap relief. If Prescott signed a Kirk Cousins-style three-year deal, for example, he'd hit free agency again at age 29. Prescott might also be waiting to see whether the Texans extend Deshaun Watson this offseason, and then he could work off of that deal if it establishes new quarterback standards.
Finally, there's the question of which franchise tag the Cowboys will use on Prescott. If they go with the regular, non-exclusive tag, that's likely to come in around $27 million for 2020. The exclusive franchise tag could be in the neighborhood of $33 million. The difference is that on the non-exclusive tag, a team could make Prescott a contract offer and, if the Cowboys don't match it, take him away from Dallas in exchange for two first-round draft picks. The exclusive tag doesn't offer that option, which is why it costs more. There's a pretty good-sized difference between $27 million and $33 million when you're using the tag as a starting point for long-term contract negotiations.
The Cowboys also are working on an extension with wide receiver Amari Cooper, and sources say they've been encouraged by the state of those talks in recent weeks. If no new collective bargaining agreement is in place by the start of the league year, teams would be allowed to use the franchise tag and the transition tag this year, and in that case Cooper would be a strong candidate for the transition tag if they can't do an extension with him in time.
Quick fix for Drew Brees and the Saints
A source said the current plan is for Brees to sign before free agency, similar to two years ago, when he had a lucrative offer from Arizona (two years, $60 million) but never entertained it. Brees' stance on that was that he's trying to win Super Bowls, not earn a few extra million dollars. He still feels that way, so he probably won't enter free agency unless something goes awry.
The Saints have incentive to get a deal done before the league year opens at 4 p.m. ET on March 18. If they don't have a deal done by that time, his current deal automatically voids and an extra $5.4 million accelerates onto their 2020 salary cap. If they do an extension before then, they can keep carrying that $5.4 million charge against their 2021 cap, which is where it currently sits. The Saints also will need to decide on a tender level for restricted free agent Taysom Hill.
The quarterback draft dominoes
There's still plenty of buzz that the Dolphins (No. 5 pick) are locked in on Tua Tagovailoa and the Bengals on Joe Burrow at No. 1. There's skepticism surrounding the idea that Washington will seriously consider a quarterback at No. 2. Detroit at No. 3 would be more than happy with Washington grabbing a passer -- Chase Young is a dream pick -- but Dwayne Haskins showed signs of life late in the season, and blowing everything up again isn't ideal. Perhaps new coach Ron Rivera really wants to push Haskins with a potential star in the QB room, but the strong likelihood remains Young to Washington at No. 2.
Todd McShay shares why he'd take Tua Tagovailoa over Joe Burrow if both QBs can stay healthy over the next 10 years.
The Chargers and the Panthers are strong candidates to pick a quarterback in the first round. Carolina is in a tough spot because it probably can't get Burrow, and the Panthers also like the 2021 quarterbacks a great deal. But they will explore all options.
Watch out for the Raiders on the Tagovailoa front if they don't go big for any of the free-agent quarterbacks. Tagovailoa is intrigued by pairing with a skilled offensive mind in Jon Gruden, similar to the Patrick Mahomes-Andy Reid connection. Gruden is held in high regard, and Tua's skill set would fit Gruden's evolution of a West Coast attack.
Burrow's thoughts on playing in Cincinnati are still worth watching. It doesn't feel as if it's over, and there are rumblings about Burrow's concerns over the long-term outlook with the franchise. But most don't expect Burrow to actually take the Eli Manning stand. He's viewed as too nice for that, plus his parents live within driving distance and there are a lot of positives that come with being the No. 1 pick. By all accounts, the two sides had a good meeting in Indianapolis.
Cornerbacks set to break the bank?
We're expecting a big payday for free-agent cornerback Byron Jones, who probably is priced out of the Cowboys' plans at $17 million per year. We heard the Eagles, Broncos and Lions as strong possibilities for Jones.
The Broncos, we're told, are trying to beef up big at cornerback, as they're also a possible trade partner with the Lions for Darius Slay; it should be noted that the Broncos could be losing All-Pro slot corner Chris Harris Jr. to free agency. Recently released former Bears cornerback Prince Amukamara could make sense as a cheaper option for Denver, given his connection with former Bears defensive coordinator and current Broncos head coach Vic Fangio.
We also heard free-agent cornerback James Bradberry was looking for a deal close to $15 million per year. Many expect him to reunite with former Carolina coach Ron Rivera in Washington.
Philip Rivers watch
He's still linked to the Colts, who will do their due diligence on the quarterback market overall. But it appears anything is in play here, including joining Eli Manning in a migration into the sunset. People we talked to believe the Bucs will evaluate Rivers as an option as well. Jameis Winston entered the process expecting the franchise or transition tag, but it hasn't come yet, and the Bucs are noncommittal. Expect them to gauge the QB market in the next two weeks, knowing they have until March 12 to tag Winston. They have weapons and want to capitalize on them with the right QB, and they might instead need the franchise tag to keep pass-rusher Shaq Barrett off the market.
Bears following Tannehill formula?
The strong sense in Indy, as it has been for a few months now, is that the Bears plan to look hard for an established quarterback to push Mitchell Trubisky, similar to the Ryan Tannehill formula behind Marcus Mariota a year ago in Tennessee. The team is evaluating players with pedigree and extensive starter's experience. Andy Dalton should be very much in play here, with Case Keenum considered a baseline option. And if Tom Brady goes to the Titans, Tannehill suddenly emerges as a coveted option for several QB-needy teams.
Teddy Bridgewater might be out of play in Chicago, since he'll be looking for a clear path to a starting QB job. One exec says he expects Bridgewater to seek $20-plus million per year. We're not sure if he'll get it, but he should have a strong market. The Dolphins have explored Bridgewater this offseason, as they did a year ago, but it might not go further than that.
An exodus from New England?
Brady isn't the only important player the Patriots could lose to free agency. We're expecting a strong market for offensive lineman Joe Thuney. He could be one of the top offensive lineman options available, assuming Washington franchises Brandon Scherff as expected. And safety Devin McCourty is a free agent as well.
Tag, you're it
Players we expect to get franchise tags if their teams can't work out long-term deals with them before the deadline include Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones, Washington offensive lineman Brandon Scherff, Bucs defensive end Shaq Barrett (if Winston isn't the one tagged), Ravens edge rusher Matt Judon, Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green, Jaguars defensive end Yannick Ngakoue, Broncos safety Justin Simmons, Titans running back Derrick Henry (assuming they don't tag Tannehill), Chargers tight end Hunter Henry and possibly Rams defensive end Dante Fowler Jr., Steelers edge rusher Bud Dupree, Giants defensive tackle Leonard Williams and 49ers defensive lineman Arik Armstead.
Contract issues for the Super Bowl champs
The Chiefs have lots of work to do. If Chris Jones doesn't get a deal by the franchise tag deadline, holding out is a possibility, though he's hoping a long-term deal comes together fairly quickly. A tag-and-trade is an option, as well. The Chiefs were on both ends of that last year, tagging and dealing away Dee Ford to San Francisco and acquiring the tagged Frank Clark from Seattle (and signing him to a five-year, $105 million deal). So they know how to do it.
On offense, the Chiefs and Sammy Watkins are expected to continue discussing options, including an extension. Watkins is due $13.75 million in 2020 salary and has an outrageous $21 million cap hit. He has no plans to take a pay cut, we're told, but the two sides have a good rapport and are trying to find a sweet spot that keeps Watkins from being a cap casualty.
Kirk Cousins' payday
We will be surprised if the Vikings quarterback doesn't get extended at some point his offseason, as the team needs cap room and reworking Cousins' $31 million cap hit creates it. But we're also told the Vikings are in no major rush at this point and could wait until after the draft to seriously work on this if necessary. They have options with other contracts. Releasing defensive tackle Linval Joseph and cornerback Xavier Rhodes would provide nearly $20 million in cap room.
Tight end payouts
The expectation is that Austin Hooper resets the tight end market with a monster deal that George Kittle can use as a baseline for his pending extension in San Francisco. Kittle can afford to be patient here, and once he does his deal, Travis Kelce will want to cash in one more time.
The tight end market is stuck on $10 million per year on average and needs a refresher.
Trade talk
We know the Lions have been trying to trade cornerback Darius Slay, but other trade candidates include Cardinals running back David Johnson and Jaguars quarterback Nick Foles. Both players carry contracts that would require their current teams to sweeten the deal, either with a pick or by paying part of the salary. And if Arizona can't re-sign running back Kenyan Drake, Johnson could be a strong fallback (assuming they'll actually use him this year).
In Jacksonville, word is the Jaguars want to go with Gardner Minshew II as their starting QB and, ideally, find a trade partner for Foles. Could a reunion with former Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich in Indianapolis be a possibility for Foles?
Protection plan for Baker Mayfield
The Browns are full steam ahead with Mayfield at quarterback. There'll be players in the offensive line market, with Tennessee free-agent tackle Jack Conklin a possible target if he gets free. It also sounds as if they plan to still have wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. on the 2020 team, though we get the sense that if they got blown away by a trade offer for Beckham, they'd think about it. There are lots of WR-needy teams out there, including New England, Philadelphia and Buffalo, though teams also believe they can find stud receivers in this loaded draft.
Jadeveon Clowney watch
The Seahawks are working hard to try to re-sign the defensive end, whom they promised not to franchise when they acquired him from Houston, but it depends on the price. Clowney could be looking to try to blow the top off the edge rusher market, especially if so many of his fellow free agents are getting franchised, and it's unlikely Seattle goes to $18 million to $20 million per year for a player who had 3.5 sacks in 2019. The Seahawks value him highly but don't want to break the bank.
Two teams that could give Clowney what he wants and pry him from Seattle: the Colts and Titans.
Open-field coverage ability pays
Speedy Rams linebacker Cory Littleton can do just that, and there are whispers the Raiders are looking to rebuild their linebacker corps and might very well get involved with Littleton. Another option for them is Bears linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski, who will have a surprisingly big market, one exec told us.
Vikings safety Anthony Harris is expected to earn more than $10 million per year after a breakout season, one source expects. Minnesota is bracing for life without him.
Bucs ready to spend
The buzz in Indy was that Tampa will go all-in by trying to sign all their star defensive free agents and work on an extension for linebacker Lavonte David after free agency. They will be spending. And that could mean a shorter-term deal for Winston if they use the tag on Barrett and don't find another option at QB.
Jordan Reed looking for a new home
The talented tight end is working out in Miami and wants to play despite concussion issues that led to his release in Washington. He has talked to the Rams about a potential signing, per a source, and there are other teams involved. He has slimmed to more of a hybrid TE/WR than traditional tight end, thinking he can be utilized in different ways. Rams coach Sean McVay knows Reed well from their time together in Washington.
NFLPA executive director DeMaurice Smith doesn't mind star players such as Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers opposing the proposed CBA -- he encourages the process.
CBA buzz
Negotiations between players and owners on a new collective bargaining agreement took up a lot of attention in Indy, and they did advance, as the NFLPA's board of player representatives narrowly approved sending the proposed new CBA to a vote of all players.
As of now, attorneys from the NFL side are expected to spend the first couple of days of this week in Washington, D.C., doing a line-by-line review of the CBA document with NFLPA attorneys. Once that process is completed (probably by midweek), the NFLPA will submit the document to all of its players for a vote.
It remains unclear how the process of all players voting will work, and NFLPA sources estimate that it could take about two weeks to complete the process. As they were leaving Indy on Thursday, NFLPA officials were still working out the details of the process, including how long to leave open the voting window to maximize the number of players who get a chance to vote. If a majority of the players voting vote yes, the deal would go into effect immediately, as the owners already have approved the deal. If the majority votes no, the owners probably would pull the deal and negotiations might not resume until next offseason. The current CBA runs until March 2021. The new one would run until March 2031.