Quarterbacks will once again dominate the NFL offseason.
Quarterbacks looking for homes. Quarterbacks sick of their current homes, or sent to new ones for capital in the 2021 NFL draft. Quarterbacks without a home. Quarterbacks set to go home, for good, via retirement.
All options appear on the table. That was the case last March, when four teams took chances in free agency and added established starters, with Tom Brady shocking most of the league by switching snow shovels in New England for jet skis in Tampa, Florida.
Last January, we asked league executives and coaches to make predictions about that position and what else was next for the league in the 2020 season. That list featured some misses (like Taysom Hill supplanting Drew Brees) and hits (Philip Rivers to the Colts).
This time will bring more of the same, with insiders offering insights into league thinking as free agency and the draft approach.
Jump to a topic:
The Colts' QB decision
The case for status quo in Chicago
A surprising home for Darnold
The next blockbuster WR trade
Matthew Stafford or Carson Wentz to the Colts
General manager Chris Ballard and the Indianapolis Colts have been deliberate with their post-Andrew Luck roster construction. They never reached to replace Luck, opting for one-year experiments with Jacoby Brissett and Philip Rivers while stocking both sides of the ball with talent and trading a first-round pick to the 49ers for defensive anchor DeForest Buckner.
The Colts can choose to run it back with Rivers. But the long-term answer at quarterback might finally await them.
"I think they signed Philip Rivers to one year for a reason -- they saw it as a stopgap," said an AFC exec of Rivers, who has passed for 4,005 yards with 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. "He can still play, but mobility is an issue. They've been pretty methodical and waiting for the right time to strike. This could be the time [at quarterback]."
Enter Stafford, whose trade viability has never felt more palpable after 12 years in Detroit.
With the Lions set to hire the fourth coach during Stafford's tenure, people in the building are openly wondering whether Stafford just doesn't have another rebuild in him. The Lions are restructuring, as new chair/owner Sheila Ford Hamp seeks to hire a new coach and general manager after firing Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn.
They tried. It hasn't worked. Maybe the new coach and general manager will think otherwise.
But there's plenty of value in a 32-year-old widely considered a top-12 quarterback who comes cheaper than most starters. Stafford's $34.95 million cap hit in 2021 is misleading. A $9 base million is the only money due next season, and the Colts are slated to have $57.2 million in cap space. That's good value for a high-level player who has 44,816 career yards, 279 touchdowns and 143 interceptions.
Wentz's future is cloudier. As we broke down earlier this month, the dead money attached to Wentz's contract hurts the Eagles, whether they trade or keep him. But some executives believe Philadelphia will at least try, given the experiment with rookie second-round pick Jalen Hurts has gone relatively well.
Colts coach Frank Reich's presence looms large here. Wentz threw 49 touchdown passes and 21 picks with Reich as his offensive coordinator in Philly from 2016 to '17, and word is the two connected on a personal level.
"Maybe [Wentz] would rework his deal in order to facilitate a deal," an NFC exec said. "At this point, he might simply want out."
Another AFC exec believes the Eagles would be making a mistake not trying to convince Wentz they can salvage the relationship.
"I'm not convinced of the [Hurts] situation just yet," the AFC exec said. "Bailing on a franchise quarterback after one bad year is a bad look. Even really good quarterbacks have down times."
Alex Smith retires, clearing way for Washington to get in QB mix
Easily a top storyline in the NFL, Smith overcame incredible odds in his recovery from a gruesome leg injury to not only make Washington's active roster, but start six games and win four of them.
He has played respectably, completing 66% of his passes for 1,420 yards, four touchdowns and six interceptions.
Beating the Eagles in Week 17 to secure an NFC East title and a playoff berth would tidily cap this beautiful run. Some executives wonder if that comeback stops soon.
"He deserves every accolade imaginable for what he's gone through to get back," an NFC exec said. "I just wonder if his body, especially after this recent [calf strain], will be telling him this is it."
The guarantees are up on Smith's four-year, $94 million deal after this year, and saving on Smith's $24.4 million cap hit (vs. $10.8 million in dead money) would be helpful for a team that still owes Dwayne Haskins $4 million-plus in guarantees after waiving him Monday.
There's a clean, cordial parting for Washington and Smith, who turns 37 in May, if the two sides want it.
League personnel are all over the map on predictions for coach Ron Rivera's next move, from pursuing Stafford to pursuing Sam Darnold to starting anew with a draft pick if one of the top four QBs (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance) is available. Washington most likely will select outside of the top 10.
Mitchell Trubisky heads back to the Bears
The Chicago Bears were staring at a losing season a month ago, but Trubisky has helped them break through with 1,001 passing yards, eight touchdowns (one rushing) and two interceptions in his past four games.
The good news for the Bears over the past four weeks with Trubisky: They are fourth in offensive efficiency and second in successful play rate on offense, behind only the Packers. The bad news is that the four teams they've played in this run rank last (Lions), 30th (Texans), 25th (Vikings) and 31st (Jaguars) in defensive efficiency. Nevertheless, the Bears have improved their pass protection and running game, and Trubisky -- a free agent after the season -- has capitalized on a simplified game plan to make himself some money in the offseason
As ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter reported, Trubisky is making a strong case for Chicago to re-sign him in the eyes of some executives.
One NFC exec who agrees says bringing back Trubisky on a reasonable deal that doesn't burden the Bears long term makes sense. That could be a two- or three-year deal with little guaranteed money after Year 1, which would help Chicago get out of the deal in 2022 if it wanted.
"He is what he is, but he's got talent," that exec said. "He's not Aaron Rodgers or [Patrick] Mahomes, but he's a good QB. He only started one year [at UNC]. You're not going to win throwing the ball 50 times a game in Chicago. You need a good running game, a good defense and a steady quarterback."
The Bears have gotten that good ground game recently from David Montgomery, who has 426 yards rushing and six touchdowns in the past four games.
Helping Trubisky's case is the scarcity of replacement options for Chicago, which is out of range for a premium draft pick in the top 10.
The wild card is Matt Nagy, who inherited Trubisky in 2018 and has known little else as coach of the Bears. If he were eager to replace Trubisky with Nick Foles, who went 2-5 as a starter in Chicago, Nagy might want to look elsewhere. Still, it's hard to deny the Bears' 25-12 record under Nagy when Trubisky starts, and the organization might use that as a reason to give the QB another shot to start.
49ers are contenders again, and keep Jimmy Garoppolo ... with help
The 49ers' injury-ravaged 2020 season is largely considered a wash, with many teams expecting them to be back in contention a year from now. The roster is still stocked with talent.
Unless coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch have a major surprise tucked away for this offseason, they'll want a reliable veteran to run the offense.
"You're seeing Jimmy G's value through the 49ers' offensive struggles," said an NFC exec. "They've had a lot of success when he's in the lineup, not so much without him."
Since 2017, the 49ers are 24-10 with Garoppolo starting and 7-25 without him. The quarterback isn't the only reason for that -- last year's 12-4 squad probably could have won games with several quarterbacks -- but the loss is deeply felt when Garoppolo isn't making winning plays.
Yes, cutting or trading Garoppolo saves San Francisco $23.4 million in cap space. And coaches around the league have been waiting for Shanahan to open up his offense with a more versatile option behind center. But keeping Garoppolo for one more year wouldn't preclude San Francisco from drafting a quarterback high. The team is projected to have the No. 14 pick in April's draft.
"If he has [George] Kittle and the running game, he's pretty good," said an AFC exec of Garoppolo. "Maybe not elite, but good."
Patriots draft a QB high while exploring reunions with Jimmy G or Jacoby Brissett
The Patriots are trending for a top-15 pick, which many expect them to consider using on a quarterback.
Coach Bill Belichick was clear that 2020 was partly about cleansing the salary cap -- hence, signing Cam Newton to a minimum deal with incentives -- and now New England is expected to have $51 million in 2021 space, per ESPN's Roster Management System.
That could easily hold Garoppolo's contract, should the Patriots pursue him.
"But I could see them signing Brissett, too, since he'd be cheaper and probably in the bottom fourth of starting quarterbacks, but a better option than what they played with this year," an AFC personnel man said.
New England's passing game was allergic to first downs this year. Newton ranked 29th in QBR (45.1) thanks to 2,415 yards, five touchdowns and 10 interceptions. That's not all his fault. He had minimal weapons downfield and ran the ball 126 times through his first 14 games.
New England needs an infusion of young talent. The top of the draft is a good start.
Steelers trade for Sam Darnold, keep Ben Roethlisberger for one more year
The Steelers' offensive struggles over the past month have brought Roethlisberger's future with the franchise into focus.
To be sure, the team does not believe the 38-year-old Roethlisberger is done. As one team source told me, the same quarterback won the first 11 games before a screeching three-game skid. And Big Ben got hot in the second half of Sunday's 28-24 win over Indianapolis.
Defenses figured out the Steelers' short passing game and the offense had trouble adjusting. That's not all on Roethlisberger, who has battled knee issues this year.
But the team knows something was off, and multiple execs wonder if Roethlisberger's skill set has diminished slightly.
The Steelers have a major decision to make this offseason: Extend a quarterback turning 39 in March or carry a massive $41.25 million cap hit on the last year of Roethlisberger's current deal.
Neither decision would shock, considering the team's loyalty to Roethlisberger. The cleanest path, one NFC exec suggests, is to have Roethlisberger play out the deal, as to avoid an abrupt ending to a fruitful 17-year marriage, while adding a reinforcement for the future.
"Darnold needs to be repaired and that would help a team buy low," the exec said. "It probably wouldn't cost a team much draft capital, and he could use a year behind the scenes with an established organization, but there's still talent there. A lot of people are high on his skill set. That's [a setup] that would keep Roethlisberger and the Steelers together without the long-term commitment."
That's all assuming the Jets, who fell out of the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes, want to part with Darnold. Many expect the Jets to get their quarterback of the future in this draft regardless.
A separate exec believes Darnold is better off in a play-action-heavy offense, such as San Francisco's, to best utilize his mobility.
Another big-name WR gets dealt (Julio Jones, anyone?)
Arizona and Buffalo gave up major draft capital to land DeAndre Hopkins and Stefon Diggs, respectively -- a 2020 second-round pick and 2021 fourth for Hopkins, and a first, fifth and sixth in 2020 plus a fourth in 2021 for Diggs -- both of whom instantly upgraded their offenses and elevated the play of teammates.
"I think there will be a lot of teams trying to swing trades -- more sellers than buyers -- because of the cap, and some big names will be available," said an NFC exec. "I could see someone like that."
One name discussed along those lines: Jones, who turns 32 in February with a $23.05 million cap hit in 2021 and recurring hamstring issues.
That doesn't sound like an attractive trade profile, which is why it probably won't happen.
But Jones is a unicorn. When healthy, he's still considered the toughest matchup for opposing cornerbacks. He should be healthy next season.
And the money is not at all bad. The Falcons have done the work for you by paying his $25 million signing bonus in 2019 and an $11 million option bonus in 2020. The new team must deal with the proration of those payouts on its cap, but the straight cash is $26.8 million over the next two years -- a reasonable clip for a superstar. By that point, Jones would have one year left on the deal and there'd be no penalty to walk away.
A two-year rental at a reasonable price for the player whom executives considered the top receiver by a wide margin in an offseason poll? Do it.
Vikings get back on playoff track
An underplayed storyline this season was the Vikings' unexpected eruption of offense. Entering Monday, Minnesota ranked fifth in total offense and was well on its way to its first top-10 performance since 2009. Kirk Cousins has a career-high 32 touchdowns through Week 16, and the playmaking trio of Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson is one of the game's best.
Sure, maybe playing from behind inflated those numbers. But pair one of coach Mike Zimmer's past defenses with this crew and the Vikings might be challenging the Packers in the NFC North right now. Unfortunately for Minnesota, this year's Vikings opted out of tackling during their pandemic season, with the Saints' 52-pound pile-on last week bringing the head coach to a new low.
Some people leaguewide are expecting Zimmer to fix the mess.
"I can't see him having a bad defense for two straight years," an AFC exec said. "And they've shown signs of life at times this year. Call it a transition year and they'll be back."
Last year, we predicted Washington would make a playoff push, which it did -- through the NFC East backdoor. Perhaps Minnesota will make a stronger case.
The 2021 salary cap sits between $180 million and $185 million
Teams are budgeting for a $175 million cap, which the NFL and players' union negotiated as the floor for 2021 because of pandemic-related revenue losses.
No one truly knows what the number will be just yet. But one league exec predicts "it will be closer to $175 [million] than $198.2 million (the 2020 cap)."
Asked to place a ballpark on it, $180 million to $185 million is a popular estimated range. The league knows the floor would drastically handcuff teams carrying bloated salaries, and if new television deals get done between now and March, the cap number could spike.
But there simply wasn't much attendance revenue. Many teams played in empty stadiums all year. That lost money has to hurt somewhere.