So, you are a team that is looking for a free-agent pass-rusher. Do you want an established star who just helped lead his team to a Super Bowl but is in the twilight of his career? Or a younger sack artist entering his prime who has put up numbers but has a more limited track record?
We created a sacks projection model to help with this debate. We're using a similar model to this one, which fueled our preseason sack projections last year -- but without any of the team-specific elements (like how often their defensive playcaller blitzes or a team's win total).
The model is based largely on each player's past performances -- from sacks and sack rates to pass rush win rate and pass rush get off (metrics that use NFL Next Gen Stats player-tracking data).
This results in the projected mean of 2022 regular-season sacks for each player. Using these numbers, we ranked the top projected free-agent pass-rushers. If the numbers strike you as low, keep in mind these are averages of an entire range of outcomes -- including injuries.
Let's dive into the top five projected free-agent pass-rushers -- plus other notables, including one player who, as of Tuesday, is no longer considered a free agent.
1. Haason Reddick, Carolina Panthers
Sacks in 2021: 11.0
Projected sacks in 2022: 9.5
You can understand the skepticism Reddick received on the free-agent scene a year ago. He was coming off a successful 2020 campaign in which he recorded 12.5 sacks, but he had been primarily a pass-rusher for just one season at that point (he rushed the passer on just 31% of pass plays in 2019, per NFL Next Gen Stats).
A year later, those doubts have been more or less put to rest. Reddick has put up back-to-back double-digit sack seasons, and he has even done so on two different teams (which is not a factor in the model but, I would think, ought to give us extra confidence in his ability going forward).
Reddick's underlying numbers also back up the sack production, as his pass rush win rate was eighth among edge rushers this season.
Given his numbers over the past two seasons and that Reddick is just 27, the model sees Reddick as the clear No. 1 free-agent pass-rusher option. For context: Reddick's projected 9.5 sacks in 2022 is the sixth highest among all players.
2. Von Miller, Los Angeles Rams
Sacks in 2021: 9.5
Projected sacks in 2022: 7.5
You can't judge Miller's 2021 season without including the playoffs, when he recorded an additional four sacks and posted the highest pass rush win rate over a single postseason by any player in the metric's five-year history. Fortunately, we're including past postseason production in the model, so that performance is included.
Of course, Miller's regular season was not at the same level, though still solid: 9.5 sacks and the 12th best pass rush win rate at edge.
Two primary factors hold Miller's projection back from being higher:
He missed the 2020 season with an ankle injury and recorded only eight sacks in 2019, meaning he has hit double-digit sacks just once in the past three seasons and needed the playoffs to get there.
Miller will turn 33 later this month, and while the postseason showed he still can be elite, it's only reasonable to assume a decline.
3. Emmanuel Ogbah, Miami Dolphins
Sacks in 2021: 9.0
Projected sacks in 2022: 7.2
Strangely, Ogbah has recorded the exact same number of sacks (nine) and the exact same pass rush win rate (14.4%) in each of the past two seasons.
While not a huge name, the basic premise of Ogbah's production offers promise. Two seasons with solid sack production while in the prime of your career is not nothing. His forecast is brought back down by a middling pass rush win rate and the fact that he plays some defensive tackle, too, where it's harder to rack up sacks. Plus, playing in Miami's blitz-heavy defense, Ogbah's expected sacks were quite high, so achieving nine sacks there is a little less impressive than it would be in a different defense.
4. Derek Barnett, Philadelphia Eagles
Sacks in 2021: 2.0
Projected sacks in 2022: 6.5
Despite the low sack number last season, Barnett ranked seventh in pass rush win rate and had the quickest average pass rush get off (0.78 seconds) of anyone on this list. That combined with at least modest sack production in 2019 and 2020 (combined 12 sacks) all point to a bounce-back season for Barnett next season.
If his interest is largely based on his 2021 sack total, his contract could end up being a steal.
5. Chandler Jones, Arizona Cardinals
Sacks in 2021: 10.5
Projected sacks in 2022: 6.4
Jones had a surprisingly low projection given his double-digit sacks in 2021 and status as a two-time former All-Pro. On the other hand, maybe it's not that hard to believe given that Jones recorded five sacks in Week 1 and then managed just 5.5 the rest of the season, including the postseason (the model does not know about the distribution of sacks).
But still, there are a slew of factors holding back Jones' projections for someone who had 19 sacks in 2019:
He is 32 years old.
His 14% pass rush win rate at edge was below average.
His average pass rush get off was a slow 0.95 seconds.
He played only five games in 2020 because of a biceps injury.
Other notables
Jadeveon Clowney, Cleveland Browns
Sacks in 2021: 9.0
Projected sacks in 2022: 4.8
Clowney has long been a pass rush win rate darling compared to his sack totals. But in 2021 with Cleveland, the sacks finally came back.
Though, it's not enough to spark a strong sacks forecast in 2022. Win rates and sacks are correlated, but they are also not the same skills. And Clowney, over the past three seasons, has failed to produce a significant number of sacks: 3.0 in Seattle in 2019 and zero over eight games in Tennessee in 2020 (when his win rate dipped, too).
It's not reasonable to expect a repeat of nine sacks from Clowney as a mean outcome.
Harold Landry III, Tennessee Titans
Sacks in 2021: 12.0
Projected sacks in 2022: 8.1
Now, Landry is no longer a free agent, as he reportedly agreed to a five-year, $87.5 million contract (with $52.5 million guaranteed) on Tuesday to return to the Titans. He would have ranked No. 2 on this list before signing with Tennessee. Let's look at why.
Landry is coming off a breakout season in which he recorded 12 sacks (he had a nine-sack season in 2019) and will be just 26 years old next year. That combination is not easy to find. His pass rush win rate was not particularly impressive (34th among edge rushers), but he did rank in the top 10 in the category in 2020 (though he recorded only 5.5 sacks that season).
The low win rate last season and the low sack total the season before are two reasons Landry's projected sack forecast is clearly lower than Reddick's. The third: Despite having more sacks than Reddick last season, Landry's sack rate was lower -- even if we include the postseason (when he recorded an additional 1.5 sacks).
Overall sack projections
Here's a quick look at the top 10 pass-rushers in projected 2022 sacks, including non-free agents.