Nick Bosa is the reigning NFL sack leader and Defensive Player of the Year, but it's Myles Garrett whom we forecast to record the most sacks in 2023.
For the third year in a row we're using a statistical model to predict the number of sacks the league's best pass-rushers will record, based on past performance and their 2023 situation. We're using the same model as last year (with minor tweaks), including the following inputs:
Sack totals and rates over the past two seasons
Projected snaps, courtesy of ESPN's Mike Clay
Pass rush win rate (PRWR), which uses player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
How often a player's defensive coordinator/head coach has blitzed in the past
How often opposing quarterbacks on each player's upcoming schedule get sacked
A player's team's win total, which matters because a winning team forces opponents to take greater risks and pass more
How often a player rushes from edge as opposed to the interior
To be included, players have to be defensive linemen or linebackers. They also have to have rushed the passer at least 150 times in one of the past two seasons, rushed the passer on at least 25% of their snaps last season and be projected to be play at least 250 snaps this season. Rookies were excluded. One notable exclusion as a result of the criteria is Lions pass-rusher James Houston, who recorded eight sacks on just 87 pass rushes as a rookie sixth-rounder last season.
I am pleased with the model's performance the past two seasons. While it has its misses, in a comparison to 23 season-sack props set by Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings last July, my model recorded a mean absolute error of 4.2, versus 4.6 for the betting lines (lower is better). While it's a limited sample, it was the second year in a row the model had an advantage.
For the first time, this list is not led by T.J. Watt, who is coming off an injury-shortened 2022 campaign when he had 5.5 sacks in 10 games. Let's dive into the top 10 players in projected sacks, along with a few other notable projections. The full top 50 is below as well.
1. Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns
Sacks in 2022: 16.0
Projected sacks in 2023: 13.2
If you're looking for sacks, Garrett is as consistent as they come. That consistency is almost strange. He has 16.0 sacks and a 26.5% pass rush win rate in both of the past two seasons. That latter number ranked third in the league both times.
For this model, there's likely nothing that could forecast a high sack total better than back-to-back seasons of strong sack totals and pass rush win rate, along with a high projected snap count and being an edge rusher (as opposed to defensive tackle). Garrett checks all those boxes. Plus, the sack rates of the quarterbacks the Browns will face are high.
The Browns' win total at Caesars Sportsbook is a solid but unexceptional 9.5, and new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz blitzed at a lower-than-average rate his last year as a DC in 2020. Those variables only slightly dampen another otherwise exceptional projection, however. In fact, Garrett's 13.2 projected sack total is the highest the model has produced in its three years of existence. The previous high came last year, when Watt was projected for 12.8.
2. Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers
Sacks in 2022: 18.5
Projected sacks in 2023: 13.1
Sure, he's only behind Garrett and yes, it's the second-strongest projection the model has ever produced. But still, it feels notable to see Bosa, the reigning sack leader and Defensive Player of the Year, not at No. 1. In fact, this is one of the furthest projections we have from the betting line. As of this writing, Bosa's sack total at Caesars Sportsbook is 15.0 (-130 to the under), and even higher elsewhere.
What could possibly depress Bosa's projection relative to Garrett? There's only one real knock -- his pass rush win rate. At 20%, Bosa ranked 13th in the league a season ago. It's a good number, but not one that will produce the highest sack projection in three seasons. Bosa's PRWR trailed Micah Parsons' by more than 9% and Garrett's by more than 6%. That's a big difference! Two years ago, Bosa's 23% PRWR ranked eighth, which is still not quite in Garrett's tier.
Bosa has everything else going for him: the track record, projected playtime (assuming he ends his contract-related holdout before the season starts), being in the prime of his career, playing edge for a blitz-heavy coordinator on a good team against a sack-friendly QB schedule. It's all there.
3. Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys
Sacks in 2022: 13.5
Projected sacks in 2023: 11.9
Parsons was the NFL's pass rush win rate leader in each of his first two NFL seasons, recording at least 13.0 sacks in each. Now entering Year 3, Parsons is an annual threat to break the single-season sacks record (22.5).
So why is his projection slightly off from the leaders above? It's nit-picking, but he hasn't flashed a higher sack total yet (like, more than 16) and he rushes the passer at a somewhat lower rate than most in this exercise (48% of his snaps). It's possible the latter could change this season, which could turn our projection into a substantial underestimation.
While having Parsons' mean projection be lower than Garrett's or Bosa's makes sense, I might bet on Parsons' upside (his chance to break the single-season record) over anyone else's in 2023.
4. T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers
Sacks in 2022: 5.5
Projected sacks in 2023: 11.1
Knee and pectoral injuries limited Watt to only 10 games last season. Naturally, that hurts his projection, but it doesn't drop him too far. We're talking about the player who tied the single-season record of 22.5 sacks just two years ago.
While Watt's sack rate was much lower last season, his pass rush win rate was only slightly lower, ranking eighth among edge defenders. All signs point to a rebound in 2023.
5. Haason Reddick, Philadelphia Eagles
Sacks in 2022: 16.0
Projected sacks in 2023: 10.8
Reddick ranked seventh in this space last season, and here's what I wrote: "The model might be higher on Reddick than any other player relative to public perception. In this case, it's the perception that has the catching up to do." I'm chalking that up as a win.
Just like last year, there's a ton to like. Reddick is a pass rush win rate machine -- ranking second only to Parsons at edge last season -- and now has a track record of high-end sack production and plays on one of the league's best teams. That means rushing the passer with a lead, which results in more sacks. One thing to note: He is having surgery on an injured thumb but is expected to be ready for the regular season.
6. Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs
Sacks in 2022: 15.5
Projected sacks in 2023: 10.0
In each of the past two seasons, Aaron Donald has been the lone defensive tackle to land a spot in the top 10. This year, it's Jones who occupies that spot after blowing up for a 15.5-sack season and being in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation in 2022.
Being a defensive tackle naturally depresses any sack forecast, but over the past two seasons Jones has led all non-Donald defensive tackles in pass rush win rate by a healthy margin. Donald was at 26%, Jones at 21% and Javon Hargrave was next at 18%. Like Nick Bosa, Jones has held out of training camp while he tries to get a contract extension, so this projection assumes he's back for Week 1.
7. Brian Burns, Carolina Panthers
Sacks in 2022: 12.5
Projected sacks in 2023: 9.6
Burns finally hit double-digit sacks after approaching that threshold in the previous two seasons. At age 25, he's in his prime and should be productive over a large number of pass rushes going forward. There are two major factors that limit his upside, however:
He's on a worse team than every player above him; the Panthers' projected win total is just 7.5. That reduces the expected number of situations in which desperate opponents will be forced to pass, which creates sack opportunities.
After ranking fourth in pass rush win rate (25%) at edge in 2020, Burns hasn't been on the same level since, finishing 13th (20%) in 2021 and 17th (17%) last season. That's good but not great.
8. Trey Hendrickson, Cincinnati Bengals
Sacks in 2022: 8.0
Projected sacks in 2023: 9.5
It's a credit to Hendrickson that he makes this list despite rushing the passer less frequently than most of the other top players. He had 22.7 pass rushes per game last season, trailing Reddick (23.6), Parsons (25.1), Watt (25.3), Garrett (27.6), Bosa (28.6) and Burns (29.9).
Hendrickson's sacks dropped from 14 in 2021 to eight last season, but his pass rush win rate remained exceptional (25% at edge, fourth best).
9. Alex Highsmith, Pittsburgh Steelers
Sacks in 2022: 14.5
Projected sacks in 2023: 9.4
Highsmith picked up the slack in Watt's absence last season. Ironically, Highsmith's big jump in sacks -- he had just six in 2021 -- came right as he dipped in pass rush win rate, going from a remarkable 24% at edge in 2020 to 16% in 2021 to 13% in 2022.
That drop hurts his forecast a bit, but the sack production from last season still helps, as does his youth (he just turned 26) and expected playtime volume (Clay projects Highsmith to play 917 snaps).
10. Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas Raiders
Sacks in 2022: 12.5
Projected sacks in 2023: 9.1
Crosby's advantage is that he is projected to play more snaps (997) than anyone the model considered. This is where being a strong run defender comes into play, as he stays on the field more than other edge defenders, giving him extra opportunities to pressure quarterbacks and compile sacks.
He had a career-high 12.5 sacks last season despite being only a little above average in pass rush win rate at edge (17%). That he plays on a weaker team with a bad defense doesn't help, but the extra snaps can cover up lower sack efficiency.
Three other notable projections
11. Matthew Judon, New England Patriots
Sacks in 2022: 15.5
Projected sacks in 2023: 9.0
This projection is well below the betting market, as Caesars Sportsbook has Judon's line at 11.5 with -120 on the under. There are several reasons to fade Judon after he set a career-high in 2022:
The 15.5 sacks were three more than he has had in any other season.
He just turned 31.
His 13% pass rush win rate at edge was below average.
The Patriots blitzed at a below-average 21% rate last season.
Opposing quarterbacks on the Patriots' schedule take sacks at a low rate.
23. Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit Lions
Sacks in 2022: 9.5
Projected sacks in 2023: 7.4
The model is skeptical of Hutchinson after his strong rookie season. Part of it is sample size; even though Hutchinson played well, the model prefers players that have produced in consecutive years.
Also, was Hutchinson really that good of a pass-rusher? While the sacks were there, the win rate was not, as his 12% PRWR was below average and only two percentage points higher than No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker in his wildly disappointing rookie season. To be fair, Hutchinson was double-teamed at the second-highest rate among edge rushers.
The model also doesn't consider draft position, so it might slightly underrate former top prospects early in their careers.
39. Kayvon Thibodeaux, New York Giants
Sacks in 2022: 4.0
Projected sacks in 2023: 6.5
It might not feel strong, but this is a bullish projection, with DraftKings setting a line of just 5.75 sacks (and it opened lower) for Thibodeaux. The No. 5 overall pick from last year's draft got off to a slow start but finished with an 18% pass rush win rate, an above-average rate which was good for 15th among edge defenders. Plus, he plays for coordinator Wink Martindale, who blitzed at the highest rate in the league last season.
Add in the caveat I gave about Hutchinson -- that the model probably is underrating top draft picks early in their career -- and Thibodeaux has a chance to break out.
I was a little surprised to see teammate Azeez Ojulari ahead of him, but Ojulari has strong numbers, including eight sacks as a rookie in 2021 and a 21% pass rush win rate last year at edge. He didn't play enough for that second number to qualify, but would have ranked 12th if he had.